Post-Game Talk: Where's Winnipeg?

[Larrybiv]

weird that our 4th line is worse than last year even though we had jake le-szechuan on it for a decent amount of time.

This can't be sustainable.

I do think its interesting to think about the possibility that the success of the rest of the lines has a negative effect on the 4th. what i mean by that is that the other teams start believing that the only real chance they have to make a push is when that line is on the ice. If thats true, then it makes sense that teams would throw the kitchen sink at this line, while hoping to at least tread water against the others.

I bet the 4th line looks much better after a home stand where the opposing teams do not choose the matchups. I'm not saying it will be a great line, just that I don't believe they are quite as bad as we have seen.

Kudos, those seem like very legit opinions/thoughts/possibilities. Are we to soon be a juggernaut? Do we want that? Haha, look at Boston doing what they did last year, and then losing to an up and coming Panthers team. They shot their load in the season, and apparently haven't learned a lesson. Earning the President's trophy, doesn't guarantee a gosh darn thing. Just bragging rights for their fans.

 

[will1066]

The funny thing is the line has actually operated pretty well 5v5. I don't think they've looked nearly as good as the analytics would have you think, but they certainly haven't been bad.

The lack of finishing has been problematic and they have pretty varying styles and they've all been guilty of certain things -

Mika doesn't want to get involved along the walls, at all.

Kakko is more than willing to get involved along the walls, but won't go into the paint and takes forever to shoot the puck, if he shoots.

Kreider floats around like he's an elite sniper instead of using his size and speed to force the issue (now, he DID play a much more engaged game on Monday so hopefully there is more of that to come.)

None of them have really been going and yet they still have created more high danger opportunities than the other lines and have been strong defensively. I'd just let them roll for a while and re assess what they look like in December. If they still aren't scoring, then yeah, make changes.

Here's my thinking on why there's no actual real goals on the scoreboard for them despite the great analytics. Individually, each of them brings positive analytics to the table. Each of them does certain things well. Taken in aggregate, as a "line," their individual positives add together for great "line" analytics.

Are they a line, though? Each of them plays a style that might not be conducive to the others. Each of them avoids doing certain "last-mile" type of things, as you point out, that can result in real goals. Why are Zib and Kreider highly effective off the rush, especially in odd-man situations, producing actual goals? There aren't many options on the rush other than to go forward and towards the net with less defenders to push back on them.

At 5v5, each of them can decide not to do a certain thing, like avoiding the wall or going to the slot and hoping a linemate will carry that part of the pact, Kreider flashes his speed off the rush. He occasionally flashes his size on the occasional cycle. Zib has pure straight-line speed that's effective on rushes. Zib doesn't do much of anything when the plays are of the cycling variety.

Their respective positive xG analytics has a lot to do with those 5v5 rush situations, as does their ability to take away the puck off stick checks to go the other way on the rush. Kakko's positive xG also comes from his ability to take the puck away from opponents and also from his ability to lug and protect the puck in the offensive zone. Goals are *expected* and vice versa for expected goals-against when these things occur.

But goals don't happen as much as they should because each of them plays a style that's not necessarily conducive to the others. They need to be able to really come together as a unit with that "last mile" stuff before they are working as a real "line." Shooting better would help tremendously also.

And I'll say this: Kreider being penalized nonstop for trucking over people cleanly early in his career really did a number on him psychologically as a physical player, turning him into a floating type of operator.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Here's my thinking on why there's no actual real goals on the scoreboard for them despite the great analytics. Individually, each of them brings positive analytics to the table. Each of them does certain things well. Taken in aggregate, as a "line," their individual positives add together for great "line" analytics.

Are they a line, though? Each of them plays a style that might not be conducive to the others. Each of them avoids doing certain "last-mile" type of things, as you point out, that can result in real goals. Why are Zib and Kreider highly effective off the rush, especially in odd-man situations, producing actual goals? There aren't many options on the rush other than to go forward and towards the net with less defenders to push back on them.

At 5v5, each of them can decide not to do a certain thing, like avoiding the wall or going to the slot and hoping a linemate will carry that part of the pact, Kreider flashes his speed off the rush. He occasionally flashes his size on the occasional cycle. Zib has pure straight-line speed that's effective on rushes. Zib doesn't do much of anything when the plays are of the cycling variety.

Their respective positive xG analytics has a lot to do with those 5v5 rush situations, as does their ability to take away the puck off stick checks to go the other way on the rush. Kakko's positive xG also comes from his ability to take the puck away from opponents and also from his ability to lug and protect the puck in the offensive zone. Goals are *expected* and vice versa for expected goals-against when these things occur.

But goals don't happen as much as they should because each of them plays a style that's not necessarily conducive to the others. They need to be able to really come together as a unit with that "last mile" stuff before they are working as a real "line." Shooting better would help tremendously also.

And I'll say this: Kreider being penalized nonstop for trucking over people cleanly early in his career really did a number on him psychologically as a physical player, turning him into a floating type of operator.

Even with all of their hang ups, they've still created the highest amount of high dangers chances of our 4 lines 5v5.

They have 25
2nd line has 17
3rd has 10
the 4th line (Bonino goodrow and either vesey or Pitlick) has 3 lol.

 

[will1066]

Even with all of their hang ups, they've still created the highest amount of high dangers chances of our 4 lines 5v5.

They have 25
2nd line has 17
3rd has 10
the 4th line (Bonino goodrow and either vesey or Pitlick) has 3 lol.

I just hope they can figure out each other so that those chances get finished.

 

[Larrybiv]

Agree here. Fun to watch in the rs. We are a playoff team even without him. If he can’t produce in the playoffs, wouldnt you want 2 5.5 million dollar players over him?

We arent here to win the rs…. We are here to win the sc. he hasnt been good enough.


Anyone else (besides kakko) notice how bad offensively kreids and mika are at 5v5?
.

They more than make up for it in pk and pp… but what do you guys think is the 5v5 issue lets face it, Kreids idea of a good pass is winding it around the boards, has NEVER been a good passer, KK works like a dog and suppose he will get better, but if MIKA isn't making things happen, well then, I guess that's my answer

 

[Levitate]

And I'll say this: Kreider being penalized nonstop for trucking over people cleanly early in his career really did a number on him psychologically as a physical player, turning him into a floating type of operator.

I also think he's just gotten older and he's kinda...preserving himself and his energy. I'm not a huge fan of it in some ways but he's definitely leaned into the "I'm not gonna carry the puck or be the guy working off the boards with it, I'm going to move it to my linemates" kind of player. What I'd like to see out of him is a bit more urgency and fight in winning the board battles and moving the puck with more authority. Right now even his passes seem kinda floaty

I think that line struggles a bit to find each other in the offensive zone but they do tend to generate some rush chances and Kakko has been part of that with some good passing. I'd just like to see him get more involved with the shooting

 

[will1066]

I also think he's just gotten older and he's kinda...preserving himself and his energy. I'm not a huge fan of it in some ways but he's definitely leaned into the "I'm not gonna carry the puck or be the guy working off the boards with it, I'm going to move it to my linemates" kind of player. What I'd like to see out of him is a bit more urgency and fight in winning the board battles and moving the puck with more authority. Right now even his passes seem kinda floaty

I think that line struggles a bit to find each other in the offensive zone but they do tend to generate some rush chances and Kakko has been part of that with some good passing. I'd just like to see him get more involved with the shooting

He might well be conserving his energy. I think most veteran players have collected enough wisdom over regular seasons to approach them like marathons.