Where would you rather the Montreal Canadiens finish this year?

[BaseballCoach]

I don't like to dislike any player, I don't think this team is very good and I want some players moved at peak value. Tatar has averaged 23 goals and 44 pts, I expect teams know that's around where he'll be as a player and that should hopefully hold good enough value to get us a solid return.

What do you think would be a reasonable expectation of the return for such a 27 yo guy who comes with a $4.8M cap hit for this year and two more years.

 

[montreal]

What do you think would be a reasonable expectation of the return for such a 27 yo guy who comes with a $4.8M cap hit for this year and two more years.

28 year old, since I doubt they trade him in less then a few weeks. Plus it depends on several factors, how does he season go by the time he's traded, do we retain? how many teams are fighting for a playoff spot vs how many teams have 44ish pt forwards to sell and what teams are in cap trouble that could be interested in him by the deadline. The funny thing with the deadline is you never know what GM is looking at the standings and saying if I just get this one guy we can make the playoffs and anything can happen then. Or my job is on the line (say Hawks GM) but if I trade for help and we make it then I'll keep my job.

Some years the trade market is better for sellers, others for buyers, hard to say at this point which one it will be. So far this early it's so tight, 8 pts from 4th overall in the league to 30th.

 

[BaseballCoach]

28 year old, since I doubt they trade him in less then a few weeks. Plus it depends on several factors, how does he season go by the time he's traded, do we retain? how many teams are fighting for a playoff spot vs how many teams have 44ish pt forwards to sell and what teams are in cap trouble that could be interested in him by the deadline. The funny thing with the deadline is you never know what GM is looking at the standings and saying if I just get this one guy we can make the playoffs and anything can happen then. Or my job is on the line (say Hawks GM) but if I trade for help and we make it then I'll keep my job.

Some years the trade market is better for sellers, others for buyers, hard to say at this point which one it will be. So far this early it's so tight, 8 pts from 4th overall in the league to 30th.

What is the historical average pick needed to get a 44 point forward who scores 20? 6th overall? 10th?

 

[montreal]

What is the historical average pick needed to get a 44 point forward who scores 20? 6th overall? 10th?

are you going off said players season or career average? Plus for the reasons stated above I don't think it matters what the historical average pick was since it only takes one GM that's desperate enough. But they aren't getting anything close to a top 10 pick, it would be 20's more likely.

 

[BaseballCoach]

are you going off said players season or career average? Plus for the reasons stated above I don't think it matters what the historical average pick was since it only takes one GM that's desperate enough. But they aren't getting anything close to a top 10 pick, it would be 20's more likely.

So if the average is 24th, i.e. a contender's first round pick, and if look at all the guys picked 24th the last 15 years, the average will be worse than Tatar's production long-term.

Zero franchise players, less than half averaging over 44 points per season in their career

Here is the list

2017	Kristian Vesalainen	FORWARD	Winnipeg Jets
2016	Max Jones	FORWARD	Anaheim Ducks
2015	Travis Konecny	FORWARD	Philadelphia Flyers	151	35	40	75	95
2014	Jared McCann	FORWARD	Vancouver Canucks	166	19	34	53	66
2013	Hunter Shinkaruk	FORWARD	Vancouver Canucks	15	2	2	4	4
2012	Malcolm Subban	GOALIE	Boston Bruins	24	0	0	0	2
2011	Matt Puempel	FORWARD	Ottawa Senators	79	10	5	15	28
2010	Kevin Hayes	FORWARD	Chicago Blackhawks	310	73	101	174	88
2009	Marcus Johansson	FORWARD	Washington Capitals	530	107	197	304	76
2008	Mattias Tedenby	FORWARD	New Jersey Devils	120	10	20	30	42
2007	Mikael Backlund	FORWARD	Calgary Flames	543	108	165	273	257
2006	Dennis Persson	DEFENSE	Buffalo Sabres
2005	T.J. Oshie	FORWARD	St. Louis Blues	665	187	277	464	340
2004	Kris Chucko	FORWARD	Calgary Flames	2	0	0	0	2
2003	Mike Richards	FORWARD	Philadelphia Flyers	749	181	306	487	585

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[montreal]

So if the average is 24th, i.e. a contender's first round pick, and if look at all the guys picked 24th the last 15 years, the average will be worse than Tatar's production long-term.

Zero franchise players, less than half averaging over 44 points per season in their career

we don't know where it would be, just because other picks haven't worked doesn't mean it won't this time. I trust Timmins more then I do MB.

 

[BaseballCoach]

we don't know where it would be, just because other picks haven't worked doesn't mean it won't this time. I trust Timmins more then I do MB.

Well, at east you're being honest and acknowledging that you are suggesting to do something that runs against the odds.

 

[montreal]

Well, at east you're being honest and acknowledging that you are suggesting to do something that runs against the odds.

the odds for any draft pick outside the top 5, 10, 20, 30, just get worse and worse. Doesn't mean you don't load up on picks though as the more chances you have the better your odds especially with Timmins imo.

 

[Kriss E]

No I think a productive Tatar is worth what Detroit got for him. We should not SETTLE for a late 2nd.

Well then all the more reason to move him!
A 1st, 2nd and 3rd? And you are saying keep him? We are a rebuilding team, get them picks.

 

[BaseballCoach]

the odds for any draft pick outside the top 5, 10, 20, 30, just get worse and worse. Doesn't mean you don't load up on picks though as the more chances you have the better your odds especially with Timmins imo.

All the pro-tankers agree that in addition to the one elite talent you hope to get, there are more pieces needed.

It does not make sense to lose the solid pieces you have in order to hope to get them back at some percentage of probability.

Furthermore, the teams cited as good cases for a build, such as Chicago and Pittsburgh, did not do what is being suggested. They kept their Patrick Sharps and Hornqvists. When in 2009, the Hawks missed the playoffs again, they did not go sell off Sharp to tank further.

 

[BaseballCoach]

Well then all the more reason to move him!
A 1st, 2nd and 3rd? And you are saying keep him? We are a rebuilding team, get them picks.

I'm ok with moving him for a first, second and third.

 

[BaseballCoach]

the odds for any draft pick outside the top 5, 10, 20, 30, just get worse and worse. Doesn't mean you don't load up on picks though as the more chances you have the better your odds especially with Timmins imo.

Where is your cutoff? Would you trade each of Petry, Byron and Tatar for 7th round picks? I doubt it. So where is the cutoff?

 

[montreal]

All the pro-tankers agree that in addition to the one elite talent you hope to get, there are more pieces needed.

It does not make sense to lose the solid pieces you have in order to hope to get them back at some percentage of probability.

Furthermore, the teams cited as good cases for a build, such as Chicago and Pittsburgh, did not do what is being suggested. They kept their Patrick Sharps and Hornqvists. When in 2009, the Hawks missed the playoffs again, they did not go sell off Sharp to tank further.

I think this team is far from a cup contender, so I would look to trade Tatar, Petry, etc.. because I think it's going to take years to build a winner and I don't think that clock has even started since I don't trust MB to build a winner. I'd want a top 2 pick over the next 2 drafts and then after that I'd be looking to build a winner, but who cares since it only matters what MB does.

Where is your cutoff? Would you trade each of Petry, Byron and Tatar for 7th round picks? I doubt it. So where is the cutoff?

Petry I want a 1st and a top prospect, will retain if I have too to get that. Tatar depends on how well is he playing, I'd want a 1st and then we'll see. Are we retaining, is the market strong for sellers, if I didn't get at least a 1st plus maybe something else then hold onto him. Byron if we got a 2nd and the scouts felt it was a deep draft then go for it, if not keep him as he's a good player to keep around for the younger players.

 

[BaseballCoach]

I think this team is far from a cup contender, so I would look to trade Tatar, Petry, etc.. because I think it's going to take years to build a winner and I don't think that clock has even started since I don't trust MB to build a winner. I'd want a top 2 pick over the next 2 drafts and then after that I'd be looking to build a winner, but who cares since it only matters what MB does.



Petry I want a 1st and a top prospect, will retain if I have too to get that. Tatar depends on how well is he playing, I'd want a 1st and then we'll see. Are we retaining, is the market strong for sellers, if I didn't get at least a 1st plus maybe something else then hold onto him. Byron if we got a 2nd and the scouts felt it was a deep draft then go for it, if not keep him as he's a good player to keep around for the younger players.

I pretty much share your cutoff points.

 

[DAChampion]

All the pro-tankers agree that in addition to the one elite talent you hope to get, there are more pieces needed.

It does not make sense to lose the solid pieces you have in order to hope to get them back at some percentage of probability.

It can, actually. For example, if you believe that said player will no longer be worthwhile three or four years down the road, when you are ready to compete. Alternatively, you might want to liberate a roster spot for a younger player to play more.

Furthermore, the teams cited as good cases for a build, such as Chicago and Pittsburgh, did not do what is being suggested. They kept their Patrick Sharps and Hornqvists. When in 2009, the Hawks missed the playoffs again, they did not go sell off Sharp to tank further.

Why would you make stuff up like that?

Pittsburgh traded Kovalev away in 2003, and acquired a bunch of draft picks at the 2003 deadline. The following year, they traded away Martin Straka, and acquired more picks. They proceeded to draft Malkin, Crosby, and Staal.

In 2006, Chicago traded away Spacek for a younger player.

 

[BaseballCoach]

It can, actually. For example, if you believe that said player will no longer be worthwhile three or four years down the road, when you are ready to compete. Alternatively, you might want to liberate a roster spot for a younger player to play more.



Why would you make stuff up like that?

Pittsburgh traded Kovalev away in 2003, and acquired a bunch of draft picks at the 2003 deadline. The following year, they traded away Martin Straka, and acquired more picks. They proceeded to draft Malkin, Crosby, and Staal.

In 2006, Chicago traded away Spacek for a younger player.

2006 was before Chicago got either Toews or Kane. And Spacek was not a top performing player like Tatar is right now. The closest thing to Tatar is Patrick Sharp.

Kovalev was traded BEFORE Pittsburgh got their top 2 picks and he was on an expiring contract. Tatar is not.

 

[DAChampion]

2006 was before Chicago got either Toews or Kane. And Spacek was not a top performing player like Tatar is right now. The closest thing to Tatar is Patrick Sharp.

Kovalev was traded BEFORE Pittsburgh got their top 2 picks and he was on an expiring contract. Tatar is not.

That's exactly right. Chicago and Pittsburgh traded away players for futures during their rebuild, not during their prime.

 

[BaseballCoach]

That's exactly right. Chicago and Pittsburgh traded away players for futures during their rebuild, not during their prime.

See it any way you want for friggin Spacek, do you understand why Chicago did not trade Sharp after they still finished out of the playoffs in 2008 even with Toews and Kane on the team?

 

[DAChampion]

See it any way you want for friggin Spacek, do you understand why Chicago did not trade Sharp after they still finished out of the playoffs in 2008 even with Toews and Kane on the team?

The Habs don't have Kane and Toews on their team. They're not comparable to the 2008 Hawks.

Pittsburgh also traded Marc Recchi and Ric Jackman away after having drafted Crosby.

 

[groovejuice]

I suspect that Price has very little trade value.

Weber, however, might, but on the other hand he may be perceived as good to have around. He won't help the team win, but being his defensive partner might be a good development environment for any future puck-moving dman.

Bergevin put his job on the line once by trading his Norris winning and Norris finalist #1D for another with acute skills, albeit fewer of them, who was 4 years older.

I sincerely doubt he goes there again. It's tantamount to admitting publicly that trade was a mistake. Bergevin will not be able to part with Shea Weber - Captain - anytime soon.

 

[sandviper]

See it any way you want for friggin Spacek, do you understand why Chicago did not trade Sharp after they still finished out of the playoffs in 2008 even with Toews and Kane on the team?

We can discuss options such as trading Shaw, Tatar and Petry for example, but to parlay your example about Sharp, we can look at Weber and Price as our equivalents.

Basically, I am not saying we need to jettison everyone, but there should be some strategic planning here. We need to plan for the expansion, the upcoming lockout, possible changes to the salary cap and development (and drafting) of talent. Look at where you want/expect the team in 1, 3, 5 years.

 

[Kriss E]

I'm ok with moving him for a first, second and third.

So am I. I'd be okay with getting an interesting prospect too. It goes without saying that whoever we move, it's for an acceptable return.

 

[GHJimmy]

I'm hoping we finish bottom 5 this year, but if it doesn't end that way, why not finish next year bottom 3?

Lafreniere needs to go to the habs no doubt, but I see it an American teams getting Canadian players as its been like that for years

 

[BaseballCoach]

We can discuss options such as trading Shaw, Tatar and Petry for example, but to parlay your example about Sharp, we can look at Weber and Price as our equivalents.

Basically, I am not saying we need to jettison everyone, but there should be some strategic planning here. We need to plan for the expansion, the upcoming lockout, possible changes to the salary cap and development (and drafting) of talent. Look at where you want/expect the team in 1, 3, 5 years.

Fair enough. And this has to be managed dynamically, being prepared to adjust to circumstances. If Tatar drops off, or Gallagher, we will have to adjust. if Price retires, we will adjust (with $10.5M more to play with).

 

[montreal]

Basically, I am not saying we need to jettison everyone, but there should be some strategic planning here. We need to plan for the expansion, the upcoming lockout, possible changes to the salary cap and development (and drafting) of talent. Look at where you want/expect the team in 1, 3, 5 years.

and there's the problem, it just doesn't feel like there's a strategic plan going on and even if so it would be very hard to trust MB to pull it off and do it right. Not saying every move he makes is bad, but not sure how anyone can have faith in him to get it right.