Where will Leon Draisaitl rank all-time by the end of his career?

[Hockey Outsider]

Please show me where I said that this list is “accurate”.

I maintain that the NHL99 list was correct in rating Malkin above Trottier, who was #31 on the HFBoards users list which is now seven years old. It did have some of its own issues (such as overrating the popular Teemu Selanne), but was correct on the point of rating Malkin above Trottier.

The issue with the outdated and highly inaccurate HFBoards users list is that it is heavily biased, due to primarily North Americans doing the voting. Some of them have great opinions and knowledge, others, not so much. But that situation is going to objectively create real bias. Especially against a Russian player in Malkin, who is already being underrated to meme-like levels.

Malkin as a Russian is going to be lower down on a list made by North American HFBoards users than he should be. That is how a North American echo chamber generally works.

The solution to this would be to create a more representative voting panel for the next HFBoards project (the one that plans to include McDavid). Limit it to a smaller percentage of North Americans, and then include more Russian, Slovak, Swedish, etc voters. This is how you eliminate bias from your lists.

Second, a player like Malkin, who was also being ranked in the HF users list in the middle of his career before scoring 1000 points, is also going to have a second layer of bias leveled against him in addition to the Russian factor: that of not yet having the nostalgia factor of retired players (many of whom were inferior players to him). We are seeing this phenomenon with Connor McDavid now, who is still being listed behind vastly inferior players on some people’s lists.

I'm not interested in getting into a debate on where Malkin should rank. But I object to your comment that the HOH list was "heavily biased" and is a "North American echo chamber". (I think you know this already, but for full disclosure, I was one of the participants in the project).

You objected to Malkin being ranked 52nd at the time. That's fine. The best way to address that is to provide reasons for why he was ranked too low. (That should be easy, if he was being "underrated to meme-like levels"). Instead of making a fact-based argument, you made the baseless claim that the voters were biased. It's (unfortunately) a fairly common tactic in debates, online or otherwise. The intention is, by attacking the character of the "opponent", you can dismiss the point that you disagree with, without ever addressing the factual content of that position.

You said the list was "heavily biased, due to primarily North Americans doing the voting". The idea that people are biased, solely by virtue of their nationality, is a deeply discriminatory way of looking at the world.

I'm not saying that nobody is ever biased. What I mean is (in the context of this argument) - if there was nationality-based bias, it would be reflected in the results of the project. It's telling that you haven't provided a single instance of nationality-based bias in the HOH list. Just a vague accusation with no specifics.

Answer this - if the HOH project was biased against Russian players (in favour of Canadian players), why did we rank Slava Fetisov and Sergei Makarov higher than Canadian legends who are (almost) universally respected like Joe Sakic, Steve Yzerman, Martin Brodeur, Mike Bossy, and (yes) Bryan Trottier? Go make a poll and see how many HFBoards users would pick Fetisov and Makarov as the top two players from that list of seven. Why did we rank Russian players who never played a single game in the NHL ahead of Canadian legends like Chris Pronger, Scott Stevens, and Marcel Dionne? We had a Soviet player from the 1960's (who I'd imagine 95% of people on this website have never even heard of) ranked ahead of Joe Thornton, Duncan Keith, Ed Belfour, and Frank Mahovlich. It's possible that the project was too low on Malkin, but if that's the case, it clearly wasn't due to a pro-Canadian/US bias (or an anti-Russian/Soviet bias), because the results I cited would have been impossible.

Was Malkin ranked too low on the HOH project from 2019? Maybe, and in any case, I agree that the list is now six years out of date. What I object to is your statement that the voters were inherently biased by virtue of their nationality (without providing any specific evidence that the list ranked Russian/Soviet players too low). Let's talk hockey here, not identity politics. Let's treat people as individuals, and not make inflammatory blanket statements about people based on their nationality or ethnicity.

 

[daver]

He was using competition in reference to MacKinnon. Ie. MacKinnon is better both because his numbers without Makar and Rantanen are still very strong and he also faces top competition.

With Forsberg and Malkin, it’s just because their numbers are still strong running their own lines away from Crosby and Sakic in a way Draisait’s haven’t been. Though Forsberg was actually used in a more defensive role the first half of his career (facing top lines), then became the guy that most teams put their best defenders against.

While I do think too much is made of his numbers away from McDavid because he has generally had really poor help away from him and the team is more likely to pair them up in offensive situations that other teams might still keep their best players separated during, his numbers do drop more than other star players away from their best teammates.

It is definitely a unique situation. McDavid is your run of the mill generational talent; a player who puts up points regardless of linemates and generally raises the level of his linemates.

Draisaitl is a franchise player who happens to have such great chemistry with McDavid to the point where they may be the 2nd best duo of all-time behind Wayne/Kurri but seemingly cannot create enough chemistry with other forwards where he is consistently centering his own line with consistent linemates.

The Oilers were seemingly well positioned after the 16/17 season but definitely were lacking in offensive depth for a few years forcing the Oilers to rely on McDrai. That excuse has started to ring hallow after 8 seasons. McDavid does significantly better playing with the same teammates most of the time. The reality of the cap era is you cannot load up for Cup runs like the Wings and Avs used to do in the late '90s/early '00s.

If he was constantly with McDavid, then he definitely would be getting the Kurri/Esposito treatment - an all-time rating lower than what his resume would dictate. But he has spent enough time on his own that he should be evaluated in a vacuum to a certain degree, and has so far that has not translated into post-season success. His era rivals, most notably another franchise C, have done that better where one can be more confident that they would be as productive in any team situation.

That, IMO, keeps him behind those two for his era, and, for the time being, perhaps always, behind Forsberg/Malkin who reached higher peaks.

 

[acor]

If Germany beats Canada in the olympics gold medal game, Draisaitl scores a hatrick and Germany wins 3-2, on top of that, Draisaitl has the most points in the olympics, he will cement himself into the top 10. No other hockey player has singlehandedly dragged a non-top 6 team into the gold medal game. The closest thing to this is Jagr and Hasek beating canada at Nagano but Jagr did nothing in that game, it was all Hasek.

Hasek will be forever remembered for beating that hasbeen Patrick Roy no matter how you rank them.

Draisaitl beating mcdavid, mackinnon, makar, marner, etc... this would be unprecedented.

LOL. Nobody gives a f*** about olympics... If Draisaitl scores a hattrick in olympics finals, half of hockey fans woildn't even know about it.


ONLY Hockey that matters is an NHL hockey.

Hasek will be forever remembered for beating that hasbeen Patrick Roy no matter how you rank them.

Weird I remember him mostly for carrying those mediocre Sabres rosters on his back. And to lesser excent for playing for Red Wings later in his career, thought it wasn't that good. Even his idiotic comment about banning russians from NHL is more noteworthy in my book (and I NEVER give a crap about what players say/do, if it's not directly related to the game) that... what excatly he did at olymics, and when?

NHL Hockey>>>>olympics hockey.

 

[wetcoast]

Since 2021, in the regular season:

Draisaitl and McDavid together: PLUS 72 with a SF% of 55

McDavid on his own: PLUS 49 with a SF% of 57

Draisaitl on his own: PLUS 29 with SF% of 49 (most common linemates - Yamamoto, RNH)


MacKinnon is PLUS 121 with a SF% of 57%
Playoff MacKinnon is PLUS 27 with a SF% of 61% (with other players like Landy, Nichuskin and Lehkonen being his most common linemates in most years)

Kucherov (since 2022) is PLUS 39 with a SF% of 62%
Playoff Kucherov is PLUS 13 with a SF% of 52%


COMMENT

McDavid has similar numbers to his playoff numbers. Clearly can carry a line offensively and not surprisingly does better when Draisaitl is on his line (which noone is disputing).

Draisaitl clearly does not do as well on his own line, although is better than his playoff numbers, and is not as good as Kucherov at ES and significantly worse than MacKinnon, most notably in the playoffs. In 2022,

Once again pretending that Draisatl wasn't playing with an injury in the playoffs that would have sidelined him in the regular season.

You just aren't being serious in your arguments here.

 

[DingerMcSlapshot]

Somewhere between 20 and 30. If he plays fairly well until mid 30's. If his play drops with age shortly. 30-40.

 

[wetcoast]

I'm not interested in getting into a debate on where Malkin should rank. But I object to your comment that the HOH list was "heavily biased" and is a "North American echo chamber". (I think you know this already, but for full disclosure, I was one of the participants in the project).

You objected to Malkin being ranked 52nd at the time. That's fine. The best way to address that is to provide reasons for why he was ranked too low. (That should be easy, if he was being "underrated to meme-like levels"). Instead of making a fact-based argument, you made the baseless claim that the voters were biased. It's (unfortunately) a fairly common tactic in debates, online or otherwise. The intention is, by attacking the character of the "opponent", you can dismiss the point that you disagree with, without ever addressing the factual content of that position.

You said the list was "heavily biased, due to primarily North Americans doing the voting". The idea that people are biased, solely by virtue of their nationality, is a deeply discriminatory way of looking at the world.

I'm not saying that nobody is ever biased. What I mean is (in the context of this argument) - if there was nationality-based bias, it would be reflected in the results of the project. It's telling that you haven't provided a single instance of nationality-based bias in the HOH list. Just a vague accusation with no specifics.

Answer this - if the HOH project was biased against Russian players (in favour of Canadian players), why did we rank Slava Fetisov and Sergei Makarov higher than Canadian legends who are (almost) universally respected like Joe Sakic, Steve Yzerman, Martin Brodeur, Mike Bossy, and (yes) Bryan Trottier? Go make a poll and see how many HFBoards users would pick Fetisov and Makarov as the top two players from that list of seven. Why did we rank Russian players who never played a single game in the NHL ahead of Canadian legends like Chris Pronger, Scott Stevens, and Marcel Dionne? We had a Soviet player from the 1960's (who I'd imagine 95% of people on this website have never even heard of) ranked ahead of Joe Thornton, Duncan Keith, Ed Belfour, and Frank Mahovlich. It's possible that the project was too low on Malkin, but if that's the case, it clearly wasn't due to a pro-Canadian/US bias (or an anti-Russian/Soviet bias), because the results I cited would have been impossible.

Was Malkin ranked too low on the HOH project from 2019? Maybe, and in any case, I agree that the list is now six years out of date. What I object to is your statement that the voters were inherently biased by virtue of their nationality (without providing any specific evidence that the list ranked Russian/Soviet players too low). Let's talk hockey here, not identity politics. Let's treat people as individuals, and not make inflammatory blanket statements about people based on their nationality or ethnicity.

Agree with this post but there is a "bias" or leaning in the HOH section towards winning, be it SC's or international tournaments for the pre NHL Russians.

that's also a universal sports bias and foten doesn't hold up as much as it's used in reality.

Case in point, Scotty Bowman's incredibly ridiculous all time Canadian players list where people who know better twisted themselves into a pretzel just because of who wrote the list.

If Daver had written that list, for example everyone would have ridiculed him.

I mean there was some polite pushback but still,

Scotty Bowman's Top 100 Canadian Players

From a special edition of Hockey Le Magazine. 9 other lists from longtime coaches, referees, and media members were also included. But I think Bowman's is the most interesting, considering his stature in the hockey world. 1. Bobby Orr 2. Gordie Howe 3. Maurice Richard 4. Mario Lemieux 5. Wayne...

forums.hfboards.com

 

[daver]

Once again pretending that Draisatl wasn't playing with an injury in the playoffs that would have sidelined him in the regular season.

You just aren't being serious in your arguments here.

Has he been injured for the past 4 regular seasons? Was he injured in 2022 playoffs when he was clearly unable to generate positive offense on his own line?

The numbers in the regular season show he is clearly not as effective away from McDavid as he with McDavid, and that McDavid, while benefitting from Drai on his line, is clearly effective on his own in a way one expects a Top 10 talent all-time to be.

In comparison to MacKinnon, who clearly produces with or without Rantanen, Draisaitl is lacking at ES.

Your argument is let's give him the benefit of the doubt that he would produce in the playoffs on his own at ES if not for injuries.

What other player in the Top 100 gets this special treatment?

Sorry, Draisaitl has clearly benefitted from sharing the ice with a GOAT talent and needs to prove that his offensive numbers do not need some context.

That you seemingly want to shut down a nuanced discussion on this point is an indicator that you aren't being serious.

 

[BlueSeal]

After all is said and done, somewhere around top 50. Unless injury hits him, he's going to have a long career.

 

[wetcoast]

Has he been injured for the past 4 regular seasons? Was he injured in 2022 playoffs when he was clearly unable to generate positive offense on his own line?

Well a simple google search produced this but then again you have ignored his playoff injuries.

While finishing the 2022 playoffs one point back of teammate Connor McDavid for the lead in scoring, Draisaitl played through a vicious high ankle sprain suffered in a game against the LA Kings.

The numbers in the regular season show he is clearly not as effective away from McDavid as he with McDavid, and that McDavid, while benefitting from Drai on his line, is clearly effective on his own in a way one expects a Top 10 talent all-time to be.

In comparison to MacKinnon, who clearly produces with or without Rantanen, Draisaitl is lacking at ES.

Your argument is let's give him the benefit of the doubt that he would produce in the playoffs on his own at ES if not for injuries.

What other player in the Top 100 gets this special treatment?

Almost all elite players have great linemates yet you point out Drai when he has the esbt player in the league on his team and the coach likes to do this weird thing called winning not disproving davers irrational metric for drai and McDrai have possibly the best "chemistry between elite players ever right?

Sorry, Draisaitl has clearly benefitted from sharing the ice with a GOAT talent and needs to prove that his offensive numbers do not need some context.

Sure but he also carried on after McDavid went down and was a worthy Hart/Art Ross winner and is showing this year how good he is as well.

That you seemingly want to shut down a nuanced discussion on this point is an indicator that you aren't being serious.

Is this a poor attempt at humour?

 

[daver]

Sure but he also carried on after McDavid went down and was a worthy Hart/Art Ross winner and is showing this year how good he is as well.

The playoffs are a different animal. And he is about even this season at ES without McDavid on his line.

Is this a poor attempt at humour?

You seem to be making a pretty big deal about viewing Draisaitl as being marginally behind MacKinnon/Kucherov.

I am happy to rescind that opinion if there is a different outcome in the next playoffs.

 

[daver]

Almost all elite players have great linemates yet you point out Drai when he has the esbt player in the league on his team and the coach likes to do this weird thing called winning not disproving davers irrational metric for drai and McDrai have possibly the best "chemistry between elite players ever right?

So why do the Oilers ever separate them at ES if that gives them a worse chance at winning?

 

[OilerTitanFan]

LOL. Nobody gives a f*** about olympics... If Draisaitl scores a hattrick in olympics finals, half of hockey fans woildn't even know about it.


ONLY Hockey that matters is an NHL hockey.

Hasek will be forever remembered for beating that hasbeen Patrick Roy no matter how you rank them.

Weird I remember him mostly for carrying those mediocre Sabres rosters on his back. And to lesser excent for playing for Red Wings later in his career, thought it wasn't that good. Even his idiotic comment about banning russians from NHL is more noteworthy in my book (and I NEVER give a crap about what players say/do, if it's not directly related to the game) that... what excatly he did at olymics, and when?

NHL Hockey>>>>olympics hockey.

Thanks for telling us that you don't care. I guess you missed the game between canada and the US in 2010.

 

[McPoyle]

Was he injured in 2022 playoffs when he was clearly unable to generate positive offense on his own line?

In fact he was. High ankle sprain.

 

[McPoyle]

What other player in the Top 100 gets this special treatment?

You give Crosby VERY special treatment all the time. The "comparing McDavid and Crosby playoff runs" was a frankly embarrassing display.

 

[McFlash97]

Mac has been just as good in the playoffs with or without Rantanen.

And Draisaitl doesn't have to face the other team's best players/best defenders like they do.

And isn't Bouchard 3rd all-time in playoff PPG?

These are just excuses at this point. Draisaitl has had 8 years to show he can be a franchise C on a consistent basis so the Oilers could throw out a 1-2 punch like many great teams have before.

And since you appear to be super sensitive about anything that goes against the narrative, I would say the Draisaitl is pacing for a 50 to 70 all-time placing. Would have a hard time putting him above Forsberg/Malkin.

Your literally pulling opinions out of your rear end and claiming them to be facts.

Claims of Leon Draisaitl being dependent on McDavid is the hill your willing to die on, but anyone that actually watches the Oilers will laugh at your claim.

Draisaitl has been centering his own line for years , but here we are again. Seething and getting worked up over Drais impressive season isn't a good look for you. Maybe try another sport for a change ?

 

[wetcoast]

So why do the Oilers ever separate them at ES if that gives them a worse chance at winning?

I'm not the coach but obviously they are responding to your position on here...right?

 

[gritdash60]

Couple cups with Oilers and a lot of people including me would like to change their vote.