Where will Leon Draisaitl rank all-time by the end of his career?

[Fourier]

McDavid is as dominant with or without Draisaitl the same way that Wayne was as dominant with or without Kurri or Mario was with or without Jagr.

I don't think many people think McDavid would not be as good on any other team; you cannot say the same about DraisaItl.

I have him on the same tier as MacKinnon and Kucherov BTW.

The bolded simply is not true, neither for McDavid individually or for the team. If you go back to the beginning of 2022-23 the two played together 1111 minutes and apart 1953 minutes 5 vs 5. The Oilers GF% with both on the ice is 62.77% with a 4.64 GF/60 5 vs 5. With only McDavid these drop to 54.59% and 3.47 GF/60. McDavid's individual scoring rate 5 vs 5 over that period is 3.45 pts/60 5 vs 5 and away from him it drops to 2.85 pts/60. And that is despite the fact that away from Leon his wingers are probably Nuge and Hyman while Draisaitl is getting a combination of third and fourth liners much of the time.

In the playoffs the difference is even more pronounced. Over the last three playoffs the two have played together 374 minutes 5 vs 5 and McDavid has an individual scoring rate of 4.33 pts/60 with Draisaitl and 2.41 pts/60 away from him. The team had a 69.09GF% with the two on the ice and a 57.41% with only McDavid. In that same period they scored 6.1 GF/60 with both on the ice and 3.41 GF/60 with only McDavid.

It's pretty clear to anyone who watches these two regularly that you simply do not know what you are talking about when it comes to either Oiler player.

And for record, since you brought up Kurri, in his last two years playing almost exclusively with Gretzky as an Oiler Kurri had 108pts in 79 games and 96 pts in 80 games. In the two years after Gretzky left he had 102 pts in 76 games and 93 in 78. Maybe just give that a thought.

 

[jigglysquishy]

Ya I would still 100% have Trottier ahead of Malkin. The NHL99 list was rightfully mocked.

Going on centres who had their primes post-1967.

1. Gretzky
2. Lemieux
3. Crosby
4. McDavid
5. Messier
6. Esposito
7. Sakic
8. Clarke
9. Trottier
10. Yzerman
11. Malkin

Malkin has missed, by far, the most time of any of the non Lemieux centres. A big part of his legacy will be a generally unhealthy post-age 25 career.

 

[wetcoast]

Posting this a second time won’t make your take any less brutal.


That list is seven years old, and Malkin was rated too low at that time already.

Since that HF list, Malkin notched:

-four seasons above a point per game
-one season top 10 Hart voting (T-5th in PPG)
-added to IIHF’s all-time Team Russia
-1,000 points mark (1,325 now)
-500 goals mark

To give you an example, the NHL99 List has Malkin ahead of Bryan Trottier now, who rated at #31 all-time on the same HF list back in 2018.

I tend to agree with the other poster.

Post age 25 (before then he has 3 elite seasons, 2 good ones and a heh one along with 2 elite playoffs and 3 okayish ones) he is 14th in league scoring and has 3 really good post seasons but combined his career has too much missed time and okayish seasons and not enough cake.

Pretty hard to rank him much higher than 51st really.

 

[wetcoast]

Ya I would still 100% have Trottier ahead of Malkin. The NHL99 list was rightfully mocked.

Going on centres who had their primes post-1967.

1. Gretzky
2. Lemieux
3. Crosby
4. McDavid
5. Messier
6. Esposito
7. Sakic
8. Clarke
9. Trottier
10. Yzerman
11. Malkin

Malkin has missed, by far, the most time of any of the non Lemieux centres. A big part of his legacy will be a generally unhealthy post-age 25 career.

Just curious do you have Foppa 12th?

Also while I don't disagree entirely with your list I think Malkin has an argument against Trottier and even Clarke to a degree but those 2 guys also brought a lot more than scoring so then the argument lessens.

I'm also not a huge fan of Big Phil to me he is kinda like the coffey or EK65 of centers but that's another story.

 

[jigglysquishy]

Just curious do you have Foppa 12th?

Also while I don't disagree entirely with your list I think Malkin has an argument against Trottier and even Clarke to a degree but those 2 guys also brought a lot more than scoring so then the argument lessens.

I'm also not a huge fan of Big Phil to me he is kinda like the coffey or EK65 of centers but that's another story.

12. Forsberg
13. Dionne
14. MacKinnon
15. Fedorov
16. Draisaitl
17. Thornton
18. Lindros
19. Gilmour
20. Datsyuk

 

[Paul4587]

If he gets a cup, top 25.

 

[PuckG]

Here's the issue.
He's in McDavid's shadow. He never took off until McDavid was in the picture and that'll always be a hindrance to him. That and his play away from McDavid has always been very average at best (minus this season and the year Yamamoto shot like 18% over a full season).

So if you remove two of his better seasons which is a substantial portion of his play away from McDavid, your argument is justified?

Do you understand how moronic that sounds?

 

[WalterLundy]

His soft skull.

Insane comment haha but I get being fed up with that. Just….rough stuff.

I did find a weakness though for Crosby that is pertinent to the thread. His peak seasons aren’t better than Draisaitl’s……
Raw totals are Leon’s and even when “adjusted” Leon is at 97% of Crosby’s ppg with a clear edge in goals.
Best 5 seasons for each player (with 70% minimum of scheduled games played)

Raw Totals:

Crosby:
06-07: 79 GP: 36 G, 84 A, 120 P
09-10: 81 GP: 51 G, 58 A, 109 P
13-14: 80 GP: 36 G, 68 A, 104 P
08-09: 77 GP: 33 G, 70 A, 103 P
*12-13: 36 GP: 15 G, 41 A, 56 P
353 GP: 171 G, 321 A, 492 P (1.39)
Per 82: 40 G, 74 A, 114 P
Per season: 77 GP: 37 G, 70 A, 107 P

Draisaitl:
22-23: 80 GP: 52 G, 76 A, 128 P
19-20: 71 GP: 43 G, 67 A, 110 P
21-22: 80 GP: 55 G, 55 A, 110 P
23-24: 81 GP: 41 G, 65 A, 106 P
20-21: 56 GP: 31 G, 53 A, 84 P
368 GP: 222 G, 316 A, 538 P (1.46)
Per 82: 50 G, 70 A, 120 P
Per season: 81 GP: 49 G, 69 A, 118 P

HockeyReference era adjusted

Sidney Crosby:
06-07: 79 GP: 38 G, 84 A, 122 P
09-10: 81 GP: 56 G, 61 A, 117 P
13-14: 80 GP: 41 G, 75 A, 116 P
08-09: 77 GP: 35 G, 71 A, 106 P
12-13: 62 GP: 29 G, 77 A, 106 P
379 GP: 199 G, 368 A, 567 P (1.50)
Per 82: 43 G, 80 A, 123 P
Per season: 76 GP: 40 G, 74 A, 114 P

Leon Draisaitl:
19-20: 82 GP: 50 G, 78 A, 128 P
20-21: 82 GP: 47 G, 80 A, 127 P
22-23: 80 GP: 50 G, 72 A, 122 P
18-19: 82 GP: 51 G, 55 A, 106 P
21-22: 80 GP: 53 G, 52 A, 105 P
406 GP: 251 G, 337 A, 588 P (1.45)
Per 82: 51 G, 68 A, 119 P
Per season: 81 GP: 50 G, 67 A, 117 P

No disrespect to Leon as I think he’s an an incredible player, but Crosby should be throttling him here by this criteria if he is a true offensive generational talent. Yet I nearly get eaten on here by other pens fans for pointing out his flaws and for me as a pens fan since the early 80s being a bit underwhelmed with his peak exploits after seeing Lemieux (as well as Jagr) produce way more than he ever did.

For what it’s worth mentioning McDavid’s raw totals best 5 seasons are 140 per 82 and adjusted 139 per 82 with both most likely rising as he drops better seasons to replace the 3-5th ranked ones as of present day.

 

[Luigi Lemieux]

Insane comment haha but I get being fed up with that. Just….rough stuff.

I did find a weakness though for Crosby that is pertinent to the thread. His peak seasons aren’t better than Draisaitl’s……
Raw totals are Leon’s and even when “adjusted” Leon is at 97% of Crosby’s ppg with a clear edge in goals.
Best 5 seasons for each player (with 70% minimum of scheduled games played)

Raw Totals:

Crosby:
06-07: 79 GP: 36 G, 84 A, 120 P
09-10: 81 GP: 51 G, 58 A, 109 P
13-14: 80 GP: 36 G, 68 A, 104 P
08-09: 77 GP: 33 G, 70 A, 103 P
*12-13: 36 GP: 15 G, 41 A, 56 P
353 GP: 171 G, 321 A, 492 P (1.39)
Per 82: 40 G, 74 A, 114 P
Per season: 77 GP: 37 G, 70 A, 107 P

Draisaitl:
22-23: 80 GP: 52 G, 76 A, 128 P
19-20: 71 GP: 43 G, 67 A, 110 P
21-22: 80 GP: 55 G, 55 A, 110 P
23-24: 81 GP: 41 G, 65 A, 106 P
20-21: 56 GP: 31 G, 53 A, 84 P
368 GP: 222 G, 316 A, 538 P (1.46)
Per 82: 50 G, 70 A, 120 P
Per season: 81 GP: 49 G, 69 A, 118 P

HockeyReference era adjusted

Sidney Crosby:
06-07: 79 GP: 38 G, 84 A, 122 P
09-10: 81 GP: 56 G, 61 A, 117 P
13-14: 80 GP: 41 G, 75 A, 116 P
08-09: 77 GP: 35 G, 71 A, 106 P
12-13: 62 GP: 29 G, 77 A, 106 P
379 GP: 199 G, 368 A, 567 P (1.50)
Per 82: 43 G, 80 A, 123 P
Per season: 76 GP: 40 G, 74 A, 114 P

Leon Draisaitl:
19-20: 82 GP: 50 G, 78 A, 128 P
20-21: 82 GP: 47 G, 80 A, 127 P
22-23: 80 GP: 50 G, 72 A, 122 P
18-19: 82 GP: 51 G, 55 A, 106 P
21-22: 80 GP: 53 G, 52 A, 105 P
406 GP: 251 G, 337 A, 588 P (1.45)
Per 82: 51 G, 68 A, 119 P
Per season: 81 GP: 50 G, 67 A, 117 P

No disrespect to Leon as I think he’s an an incredible player, but Crosby should be throttling him here by this criteria if he is a true offensive generational talent. Yet I nearly get eaten on here by other pens fans for pointing out his flaws and for me as a pens fan since the early 80s being a bit underwhelmed with his peak exploits after seeing Lemieux (as well as Jagr) produce way more than he ever did.

For what it’s worth mentioning McDavid’s raw totals best 5 seasons are 140 per 82 and adjusted 139 per 82 with both most likely rising as he drops better seasons to replace the 3-5th ranked ones as of present day.

Era adjusted stats are garbage dude. They are simply not close to reflecting reality.

Explained it many times, but they use league averages to adjust, where there has been a very clear outsized increase for top scorers due to rule changes. You can see it among the 10th and 20th scorers too.

Era adjusted would put Crosby finishing 3rd behind Malkin and Ovechkin in 08-09 equivalent to Draisaitl finishing 7th last year. Anyone with eyes knows that's wrong.

Era adjusted has that big trio from last gen as approximately a Panarin level player, which is nonsense.

Best way to adjust is to see percent increase from 10th or 20th scorer, not the league average. The rule changes disproportionately helped offensive players.

Now I'm convinced you're trolling tbh or not even a Pittsburgh fan. Come to think of it never seen you on the Pens board.

 

[daver]

The bolded simply is not true, neither for McDavid individually or for the team. If you go back to the beginning of 2022-23 the two played together 1111 minutes and apart 1953 minutes 5 vs 5. The Oilers GF% with both on the ice is 62.77% with a 4.64 GF/60 5 vs 5. With only McDavid these drop to 54.59% and 3.47 GF/60. McDavid's individual scoring rate 5 vs 5 over that period is 3.45 pts/60 5 vs 5 and away from him it drops to 2.85 pts/60. And that is despite the fact that away from Leon his wingers are probably Nuge and Hyman while Draisaitl is getting a combination of third and fourth liners much of the time.

In the playoffs the difference is even more pronounced. Over the last three playoffs the two have played together 374 minutes 5 vs 5 and McDavid has an individual scoring rate of 4.33 pts/60 with Draisaitl and 2.41 pts/60 away from him. The team had a 69.09GF% with the two on the ice and a 57.41% with only McDavid. In that same period they scored 6.1 GF/60 with both on the ice and 3.41 GF/60 with only McDavid.

It's pretty clear to anyone who watches these two regularly that you simply do not know what you are talking about when it comes to either Oiler player.

And for record, since you brought up Kurri, in his last two years playing almost exclusively with Gretzky as an Oiler Kurri had 108pts in 79 games and 96 pts in 80 games. In the two years after Gretzky left he had 102 pts in 76 games and 93 in 78. Maybe just give that a thought.

Put McDavid on any team in the NHL and I have no doubt that he does the same thing he has done in Edmonton, separating himself from the rest of the league. He is that caliber of player; one that produces regardless of who is on his line or his team. He is like Jagr and Crosby in this regard.

He has outproduced Draisaitl consistently so without a doubt, he is the superior player to the benefit of Draisaitl. Draisaitl has simply not risen the occasion, on his own, in the playoffs. to believe he produces as much if he was on any other team.

I think Mac and Kucherov have proven this a bit more but am certainly ready to be swayed. Is that fair?

Put this another way, are you saying we should downgrade McDavid because of all the time he has spent with Draisaitl? That we shouldn't take McDavid's numbers at face value?

 

[Nathaniel Skywalker]

Era adjusted stats are garbage dude. They are simply not close to reflecting reality.

Explained it many times, but they use league averages to adjust, where there has been a very clear outsized increase for top scorers due to rule changes. You can see it among the 10th and 20th scorers too.

Era adjusted would put Crosby finishing 3rd behind Malkin and Ovechkin in 08-09 equivalent to Draisaitl finishing 7th last year. Anyone with eyes knows that's wrong.

Era adjusted has that big trio from last gen as approximately a Panarin level player, which is nonsense.

Best way to adjust is to see percent increase from 10th or 20th scorer, not the league average. The rule changes disproportionately helped offensive players.

Now I'm convinced you're trolling tbh or not even a Pittsburgh fan. Come to think of it never seen you on the Pens board.

He is a oilers fan that is using the pens as a facade

 

[wetcoast]

Put McDavid on any team in the NHL and I have no doubt that he does the same thing he has done in Edmonton, separating himself from the rest of the league. He is that caliber of player; one that produces regardless of who is on his line or his team. He is like Jagr and Crosby in this regard.

He has outproduced Draisaitl consistently so without a doubt, he is the superior player to the benefit of Draisaitl. Draisaitl has simply not risen the occasion, on his own, in the playoffs. to believe he produces as much if he was on any other team.

I think Mac and Kucherov have proven this a bit more but am certainly ready to be swayed. Is that fair?

Put this another way, are you saying we should downgrade McDavid because of all the time he has spent with Draisaitl? That we shouldn't take McDavid's numbers at face value?

The question is why should we downgrade Draisatl for having chemistry with Connor.

Enough evidence has been provided that when they play together both benefit right?

But then again you don't seem to be arguing in good faith here.

 

[daver]

The question is why should we downgrade Draisatl for having chemistry with Connor.

Enough evidence has been provided that when they play together both benefit right?

But then again you don't seem to be arguing in good faith here.

Over the last three playoffs, McDavid sees a slight increase in his production, Draisaitl sees a significant increase in his. There was an anomoly in 2022 when the McDavid/Drai/Kane line scored 9 goals and only gave up 1 despite a SF% of 43.

The numbers show that McDavid can clearly tilt the ice with or with out Draisaitl; Draisaitl has yet to show that he can do that too.

The Oilers clearly want to keep them separate at ES but cannot because Draisaitl's line cannot outperform their opposite number.

 

[geebster]

He's great but it's always hard to project out while people are in their primes. People always slow down and its hard to predict. It's also really hard to learn have him top 20 or 25 when you have to include goalies and D, especially ones that have multiple cups.

I think if he has an injury free prime and doesn't have a steep decline through his 30s, and wins some cups, then he is a top 20 forward probably but that's with a recency bias.

Absolutely a generational player for this era, kind of like a Jagr tier. But if he doesn't win cups then he loses that comparison handily.

 

[TheGoldenJet]

Ya I would still 100% have Trottier ahead of Malkin.

I have Malkin ahead, but at least this take of yours is not as awful as the one that Malkin is outside the top 50. Malkin is in that discussion with Trottier for #31 all-time, that is much closer to his actual rank.

The NHL99 list was rightfully mocked.

Like it or not, the NHL99 list carries significantly more weight than a list created by a handful of Canadian homers, and unlike the HF list, it is not seriously outdated.

 

[GoldenKnight]

Everyone has their own unique criteria for rating players, but to me it is more reasonable to rate Malkin somewhere between 30-40 than to have him outside the top 50 players all-time.

He seems to be perennially underrated by some.

 

[wetcoast]

Over the last three playoffs, McDavid sees a slight increase in his production, Draisaitl sees a significant increase in his. There was an anomoly in 2022 when the McDavid/Drai/Kane line scored 9 goals and only gave up 1 despite a SF% of 43.

The numbers show that McDavid can clearly tilt the ice with or with out Draisaitl; Draisaitl has yet to show that he can do that too.

The Oilers clearly want to keep them separate at ES but cannot because Draisaitl's line cannot outperform their opposite number.

Yet you continue to ignore that Leon was playing injured and if it wasn't the playoffs he would have been sitting out.

Like I said you really aren't arguing in good faith here.

 

[daver]

Yet you continue to ignore that Leon was playing injured and if it wasn't the playoffs he would have been sitting out.

Like I said you really aren't arguing in good faith here.

So he played injured and had to pair up with McDavid in 2023. What about 2024? He played injured again and they didn't pair up.

Seems like a convenient excuse to fit a narrative.

And was he injured in 2022 when he was a plus 12 with McDavid and a minus 8 without?

 

[daver]

Everyone has their own unique criteria for rating players, but to me it is more reasonable to rate Malkin somewhere between 30-40 than to have him outside the top 50 players all-time.

He seems to be perennially underrated by some.

Malkin is mentioned as a comparable given his proximity to another GOAT but this fails to acknowledge that Crosby and Malkin spent the vast majority of their time on separate lines; a major factor in the Pens winning three Cups.

Malkin, by age 25, was pacing for the Top 25/30 range but injuries keeps him in the Top 50ish range with another oft-injured C named Forsberg.

Both of these players, when healthy, played at a higher level than Draisaitl, IMO.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Like it or not, the NHL99 list carries significantly more weight than a list created by a handful of Canadian homers, and unlike the HF list, it is not seriously outdated.

@jigglysquishy ranked Malkin 11th on his list of greatest post-expansion centres (see post #402). The Athletic ranked Malkin 10th among centres (link). If you're citing the Athletic's list as accurate, that means jigglysquishy was also accurate in ranking Malkin (surely a difference of one spot isn't meaningful). So I'm not sure if I understand what your objection is.

 

[Fourier]

Over the last three playoffs, McDavid sees a slight increase in his production, Draisaitl sees a significant increase in his. There was an anomoly in 2022 when the McDavid/Drai/Kane line scored 9 goals and only gave up 1 despite a SF% of 43.

The numbers show that McDavid can clearly tilt the ice with or with out Draisaitl; Draisaitl has yet to show that he can do that too.

The Oilers clearly want to keep them separate at ES but cannot because Draisaitl's line cannot outperform their opposite number.

Yes an increase to 4.33 pts/60 with Draisaitl from 2.41 pts/60 away from him is most definitely slight. I doubt anyone could argue against that.

 

[Fantast100]

Perhaps top 80.

Perhaps top 50.

 

[daver]

Yes an increase to 4.33 pts/60 with Draisaitl from 2.41 pts/60 away from him is most definitely slight. I doubt anyone could argue against that.

2022 playoffs

McDrai at ES were 22 goals for, 9 against

McDavid at ES was 9 goals for, 8 goals against

Draisaitl at ES was 1 goal for, 9 goals against


2023 playoffs

McDrai at ES were 8 goals for, 4 against

McDavid at ES was 3 goals for, 3 goals against

Draisaitl at ES was 6 goal for, 7 goals against


2024 playoffs

McDrai at ES were 8 goals for, 5 against

McDavid at ES was 20 goals for, 9 goals against

Draisaitl at ES was 15 goals for, 15 goals against


Total

McDrai at ES were 38 goals for, 18 against

McDavid at ES was 32 goals for, 20 goals against

Draisaitl at ES was 22 goals for, 31 goals against

 

[daver]

Malkin had a Beliveauesque start to his career with both an Art Ross win and a Cup winning playoff run that are among the best by the Non-Big 4 by age 25.

He was legitimately in the best player in the world conversation with a peak OV and Crosby after the 08/09 season and again after the 11/12 with a peak Crosby.

After that, he then adds another elite Cup winning run in 2017, adds some decent scoring finishes, and has an impressive PPG. The latter can only get you so far though has he had a hard time not missing games almost every season.

His peak season and peak playoff run put him in the Top 25ish all-time, above notables like Sakic (better regular season) and Yzerman (better playoff run); his career numbers put him clearly behind those two in the Top 50ish range.

I could see someone not placing Draisaitl ahead of Malkin based on his peak (depending on how the rest of Drai's career plays out).

 

[Wings4Life]

Malkin is mentioned as a comparable given his proximity to another GOAT but this fails to acknowledge that Crosby and Malkin spent the vast majority of their time on separate lines; a major factor in the Pens winning three Cups.

As a Wings fan, I agree with this. That one-two punch from the Penguins was unstoppable in the SCF.

Malkin, by age 25, was pacing for the Top 25/30 range but injuries keeps him in the Top 50ish range with another oft-injured C named Forsberg.

Here is where I disagree with you a little.

Malkin had his share of injuries, but he also had a better peak, prime, and career than Forsberg, so how can he be rated near him? He has improved his position since seven years ago, IMO.

Both of these players, when healthy, played at a higher level than Draisaitl

That's how I see it, too.