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Speculation: Where does Holtby go?

txpd

txpd

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Jan 25, 2003
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LakeLivin said:
Not likely Carolina. Lotta people in here seem to be valuing him based on distant (in NHL terms) history. Canes have a good analytics group, and I can't see them investing in a goalie who turns 31 in September and hasn't had an above average season in 3 years.
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What is your definition of distant?
 
LakeLivin

LakeLivin

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Mar 11, 2016
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txpd said:
He is one season removed from winning the cup and last season he changed goalie coaches. The Capitals win. He is the goalie in most of them.

Under the Hood: Why The Capitals Are Better Than Last Season
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Of course I knew that the Caps won the Cup in 2018, and Holtby had a pretty good playoff run. But I see that Cup as more of a team accomplishment than Holtby going all Hasek or Roy. From my perspective, Holtby didn't personally have a great season, in spite of the Cup. Others may disagree, which is fine.

Analyses have show that generally goalies peak in their 20s and start to decline after they hit 30. Holtby's recent performance isn't good enough for me to want to take the chance that he's an exception. I think his next contract will be for a lot less than most people on here think. I could, of course, be wrong; wouldn't be the first time, lol.
 
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txpd

txpd

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LakeLivin said:
Of course I knew that the Caps won the Cup in 2018, and Holtby had a pretty good playoff run. But I see that Cup as more of a team accomplishment than Holtby going all Hasek or Roy. From my perspective, Holtby didn't personally have a great season, in spite of the Cup. Others may disagree, which is fine.

Analyses have show that generally goalies peak in their 20s and start to decline after they hit 30. Holtby's recent performance isn't good enough for me to want to take the chance that he's an exception. I think his next contract will be for a lot less than most people on here think. I could, of course, be wrong; wouldn't be the first time, lol.
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If I had a choice between Holtby and Mrazek type goalie on a team that I had playoff expectations of, I would want Holtby. They were down 3 games to 2 to the Lightning and he didn't allow a goal the rest of the series. If you want to say that goaltending is a team thing in the playoffs, then its a team thing whenever. The Capitals cap management plan requires using limited skill 5/6 defensemen in top 4 roles. 2 of them this season. The Caps give up mass amounts of high danger chances. But yea, its on the goalie. The Caps win most of the time. They give up a lot of garbage time goals.

Of course if there is no market for him, he can stay in Washington with the young gun
 
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Flameshomer

Flameshomer

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If we get a compliance buyout I could see him as a flame for sure. Getting two hometown boys in one year would sure make up for a lot of the pain of flames Fanhood lol.

I'm leery of signing holtby to a big contract. With a compliance buyout though id be willing to aim at 6mx2 or something. The 2 years are important as we will need money that offseason for tkachuk and the following for Monahan.
 
LakeLivin

LakeLivin

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txpd said:
If I had a choice between Holtby and Mrazek type goalie on a team that I had playoff expectations of, I would want Holtby. They were down 3 games to 2 to the Lightning and he didn't allow a goal the rest of the series. If you want to say that goaltending is a team thing in the playoffs, then its a team thing whenever. The Capitals cap management plan requires using limited skill 5/6 defensemen in top 4 roles. 2 of them this season. The Caps give up mass amounts of high danger chances. But yea, its on the goalie. The Caps win most of the time. They give up a lot of garbage time goals.

Of course if there is no market for him, he can stay in Washington with the young gun
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Everything else being equal I could also see going with Holtby over Mrazek for a couple seasons, but I don't see that as being a realistic choice. Mrazek is signed short term at $3.125m per. Holtby is going to want term and a lot more money than that, and both would be too risky and wouldn't fit into the Cane's organizational philosophy, imo. [btw, I'd rather not go into next season with Mrazek in goal unless it's as a 1B and we add a 1A who's even stronger]

We'll see how the league values Holtby, but I'm thinking a reasonable analogy might be Eric Staal when his contract with the Canes ran out. An aging star whose recent performance lagged well behind his career highs, seems like Staal was basing his value on his total career, while the Canes were basing it on recent performance. Turns out the league felt the same way as the Canes, and Staal went from an $8.25 AAV contract to $3.5m on the open market. I'm guessing Staal could have re-signed with the Canes for more than that had he taken their best offer. Not saying Holtby will fall quite that much, and I hope that his negotiations with the Caps are amicable, so that staying with the Caps remains an option if the market doesn't value him as much as he might anticipate.
 
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txpd

txpd

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LakeLivin said:
Everything else being equal I could also see going with Holtby over Mrazek for a couple seasons, but I don't see that as being a realistic choice. Mrazek is signed short term at $3.125m per. Holtby is going to want term and a lot more money than that, and both would be too risky and wouldn't fit into the Cane's organizational philosophy, imo. [btw, I'd rather not go into next season with Mrazek in goal unless it's as a 1B and we add a 1A who's even stronger]

We'll see how the league values Holtby, but I'm thinking a reasonable analogy might be Eric Staal when his contract with the Canes ran out. An aging star whose recent performance lagged well behind his career highs, seems like Staal was basing his value on his total career, while the Canes were basing it on recent performance. Turns out the league felt the same way as the Canes, and Staal went from an $8.25 AAV contract to $3.5m on the open market. I'm guessing Staal could have re-signed with the Canes for more than that had he taken their best offer. Not saying Holtby will fall quite that much, and I hope that his negotiations with the Caps are amicable, so that staying with the Caps remains an option if the market doesn't value him as much as he might anticipate.
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The league overvalues UFAs. There is a level where below that Holtby signs with the Caps. My feeling is that there is a leadership quality that several teams will want and be willing to pay for. I would offer as an example of that Brooks Orpik.
 
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LakeLivin

LakeLivin

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txpd said:
The league overvalues UFAs. There is a level where below that Holtby signs with the Caps. My feeling is that there is a leadership quality that several teams will want and be willing to pay for. I would offer as an example of that Brooks Orpik.
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The nice thing about this debate is that we'll soon actually get an answer. Do you think Holtby ends up getting more than his current AAV ($6.1m), around the same, or less?
 
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txpd

txpd

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LakeLivin said:
The nice thing about this debate is that we'll soon actually get an answer. Do you think Holtby ends up getting more than his current AAV ($6.1m), around the same, or less?
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I have no idea what he ends up with. His situation is pretty unusual. He has said that he owes the players association his best. That indicates he will take the money to set a market. He has said that Washington is home. We will see what if anything the playoffs bring. I would imagine that his playoff performance will set his market. The Bruins are between the Caps and the finals at some point and Holtby owns Boston. If they lose in the 1st round again, it will clearly hurt him
 
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Nanuuk

Nanuuk

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Holtby would be too expensive for Calgary. Calgary would be better off offering Talbot more to retain him. In the end, I suspect Calgary will promote Gillies and hope they can get 30 games out of him. That would allow them to expose him in the expansion draft.
 
Ledge And Dairy

Ledge And Dairy

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Nanuuk said:
Holtby would be too expensive for Calgary. Calgary would be better off offering Talbot more to retain him. In the end, I suspect Calgary will promote Gillies and hope they can get 30 games out of him. That would allow them to expose him in the expansion draft.
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Rittich's a UFA 4 days after expansion, Calgary could probably get away with exposing him
 
DatDude44

DatDude44

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Feb 23, 2012
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pixiesfanyo said:
From what we’ve gotten from local media ownership pushed for the Skinner contract.. so Botts literally signed no bad contracts lol
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Honestly i'm not surprised...Terry is a fan who got the keys to a franchise and thinks he can actually make real player personnel decisions......He used to think girgensons was part of the true core with eichel, reinhart and risto (4 years ago).

I'm hoping for the sabres sake he trusts Adams enough to allow the hockey person to make hockey decision.....and if the team needs to change their brand of fuel for their team jet....that Terry can take the lead on that one....

I enjoy referring to pegula as "Terry" lmao
 
Gurglesons

Gurglesons

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STLBLUES44 said:
Honestly i'm not surprised...Terry is a fan who got the keys to a franchise and thinks he can actually make real player personnel decisions......He used to think girgensons was part of the true core with eichel, reinhart and risto (4 years ago).

I'm hoping for the sabres sake he trusts Adams enough to allow the hockey person to make hockey decision.....and if the team needs to change their brand of fuel for their team jet....that Terry can take the lead on that one....

I enjoy referring to pegula as "Terry" lmao
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If he is taking the lead, I could very easily see Ehrhoff and Leino 2.0.
 
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