majormajor
Registered User
- Jun 23, 2018
- 26,774
- 32,925
Thanks for actually explaining some of what you think makes him elite, and acknowledging what the numbers do show. However, a lot of your explanation is somewhat vague - for example, what does it mean that he “breaks up plays really well when it matters?” Why do the zone entries that he frequently allows not matter? I recall some big zone entries in that 3-0 comeback that would’ve changed the dynamic of that game if he had denied them. I don’t think it’s fair to pick and choose what plays matter.
It's not quite as subjective as you're suggesting. There's play inside the structure of the system and there's play when the system breaks down. Cautiously ceding the perimeter is system, that's coach's orders. Breaking up a 2 v 1 when your partner is out of position is not system, it's individual skill. It matters in the sense that failure leads to goals against. You don't have to break up routine plays at the blueline, and in this system you're not supposed to try that unless its perfectly safe. It doesn't matter because there is no consequence for the team, they are very comfortable ceding the perimeter. Maybe that's ultimately bad strategy on Tortorella's part, either way Seth Jones has no say in the matter.
More importantly, though, I think his highly active and aggressive style of play near the puck that you’ve referenced kind of explains the gap between the eye test and his stats. He is extremely active in the defensive zone, often times to the point of chasing the puck carrier past where he should and leaving a player open elsewhere. I’ve seen him engage in a lot of low percentage battles that he overestimates his chances at winning, when the smarter move would probably be to disengage and maintain proper positioning. This is a bigger criticism of mine in the offensive zone than the defensive zone but it’s present in both.
I really don't see him getting out of defensive position much. He's been very effective this playoffs at keeping his man (frequently Matthews in the Toronto series) to the outside. The goals results have been very good.
Regarding the GF%, it is true that his GF% was strong this year both raw and relative, but there are two factors that make it clear that this had more to do with luck/variance than his individual play. The first is his PDO; defensemen have a very little to no repeatable control of their PDO on a year to year basis, and his xGF% suggests that he was quite fortunate this year to maintain high GF%. The second is his GF% over his entire tenure with CBJ; at 5-on-5, he is negative relative to his teammates. There are a few players who may be true outliers one terms of PDO, such as the aforementioned Karlsson who we can consistently expect to finish below 100 if all else is equal, or the aforementioned Crosby for whom the inverse is true, but Seth Jones’s entire career suggests he is not one of them. Columbus’ offense by xGF this season was comparable with and without Jones and their defense was notably better.
I might be more amenable to this argument after a year where Seth Jones doesn't have some of the lowest goals against in the league. If you're so confident he'll regress then we can return to this next year.
Lastly, what you’ve acknowledged about the WOWY stats is pretty clearly enough for me to say that even from your perspective, he should absolutely not be considered elite. If we say that it is unfair to Jones to compare him to David Savard because Savard is an elite shutdown defenseman, wouldn’t we still be admitting that Jones is not an elite shutdown defenseman? I don’t really understand that. And while Columbus’ 3rd pairing RD may be sheltered, and while the advanced stats community may fail to account for the increased difficulty that comes with quality of competition or just with more TOI, we are not saying that Markus Nuutivara is elite here. We are merely saying that if Jones is half the player that he is made out to be by the general public, then the team should not get better defensive results with Nuutivara or whomever on the ice.
You misread me. I'm saying it's a big disadvantage for Jones[ in his comparison with other top pair D-men] to have his defensive results always be relative to David Savard, because he's also an outstanding defensive player. You're not going to see much difference between the two sometimes because they're both great. And in a year where they're both great, then Jones' relative stats are extremely sensitive to small samples of play by sheltered third pair RHD.
I think there might also be some bias here from playing with Zach Werenski. Prior to this year, where Werenski improved markedly, any Jackets fan would have told you he was creating a disproportionate number of dangerous situations in his own end including an alarming number of 2 v 1s. 2018-19 was particularly bad, Jones' goals against results were dramatically better away from Werenski (about a goal or more better /60). I don't have a great handle on the calculation of the relative stats but it strikes me that playing with a defensive liability and being compared to a defensively strong pairing is a combination that will bias towards poor relative results.
There are other defensemen out there who play against the same quality of competition that Jones plays against and post better results when they’re on the ice than their teams do when they’re on the bench. Most elite defensive defensemen actually improve their team’s defensive performance despite playing against top competition; that’s what makes them elite. It’s a high bar to hold somebody to but with the way that people talk about Jones in these threads, we have to hold him to this bar and he pretty clearly doesn’t pass. He’s overrated.
I think Jones does improve his teams defensive performance regardless of competition.
Forgive me if I'm not as interested in the xGs as I am in the Gs. I do take interest in the xGs sometimes but this year since the Blue Jackets have adopted the very conservative defensive "house" defense I've found a sharper divergence than ever between my eye and the stats. Accounting for shot location is nice, but without accounting for the position of the defender and where their stick is it's become very misleading. Joonas Korpisalo isn't a god on earth.
There's a lot there so I just inserted my comments in bold.
