Where did Yzerman go wrong with the rebuild?

[19 for president]

What I am concerned about is how we're going to address and execute building this team up during the remainder of Larkin's very short window. Father time always wins, and with the mileage that Larkin has so far, I'm concerned that our best player will only have another 3-4 years left. Larkin will be entering his age 29 season in 2025-26. Could he be one of those that are still productive between ages 34-37? Sure, but I wouldn't count on it. So if he's our best center in the next 4 years, and Danielson + Kasper can't produce at high end 1C & 2C rates, then we're going to be in a very tough place moving forward.

Now that can be mitigated by having line driving wingers, but ideally you want centers to be the foundation of a strong team. We have been doing decent with introducing youth to our team over the past few years, but this team will live and die on the quality of our prospects, as we honestly CAN'T rely on landing high end free agents.

Yzerman tried his hand at middling free agents turning into high end producers in a different environment and that didn't work. Middling players produce middling results more often than not. I see a league that continues to have its rich teams get richer just like Dallas landing Rantanen. So how are we going to navigate around that? The Rantanen type of situations only come once in a blue moon. Marner will re-sign with the Leafs imo. So what do we do then?

Another thing I haven't even touched on is how we rid ourselves of the dead weight from this team. With the increase in cap, I can live with a 4th line of Compher-Copp-Rasmussen as an example, but we need to flesh out the top three lines with higher end players.

Do we try and pry top prospects from other teams (VERY HARD to do). Do we offer sheet? Do we start trading 1sts and 2nds?

One thing I do see for our team is that we're going to be a type of team that HAS to overpay for what we need and Yzerman needs to be okay with that in the next few years.

Going back to how I started, there's only two realities where we're a contender during the remainder of Larkin's prime, where we get aggressive and really overpay for what we need, or continue to be patient and have Raymond, Seider & Edvinsson be leaders of our next window by the time they're ages 26-30. And if the latter half is the case, then I don't think that Yzerman will be the GM of the team when that time comes as that process will take another 4-7 years and by that time we're talking about Yzerman being GM of a team that hasn't gone far in a decade and I don't know any current GM that is at the helm for 10+ years with no results. Sad thing too is that if I was a betting man, I would say that we'll be contenders in the latter scenario, rather than the former. But I'm also very pessimistic by nature.

What really scares me is posing the question of, what if Raymond, Seider, Edvinsson +++ isn’t good enough when compared against the rest of the league.

This 100%. This off season we are at a critical moment. We either need to be super aggressive and address our needs now or seriously start to consider dealing guys like Larkin/DBC in hopes of landing someone to be a #1 center during the Seider/Ray/Ed timeline. Larkins game is 75% skating based, there is a high likelyhood that his game isn't going to age super well. We probably have until mayne age 32 or 33 of him being a PPG center.

I like both Kasper and Danielson but neither shout for sure NHL top line center. 2nd line maybe but I don't know if either have the offensive talent to be #1s.

The other big thing Yzerman needs to stop doing is signing meh guys for his 4th line. I'm down for physical forecheckers, excellent fo guys, or at least great pkers. We need a good change of pace energt line, and the guys he keeps bringing in don't do that. This was a failure of his in TB to, and once they addressed it they starting winning cups.

I like a lot of our prospects and we have a heck of back end (goalie and D) in the making but right now I'm looking at the Weber era Preds in the making because #1 C looks like it will be a glaring hole to fill.

If I'm going to have to wait a decade for a team, it better be one that will actually compete for a cup and not one that is perenial playoff fodder...

 

[Winger98]

This 100%. This off season we are at a critical moment. We either need to be super aggressive and address our needs now or seriously start to consider dealing guys like Larkin/DBC in hopes of landing someone to be a #1 center during the Seider/Ray/Ed timeline. Larkins game is 75% skating based, there is a high likelyhood that his game isn't going to age super well. We probably have until mayne age 32 or 33 of him being a PPG center.

I like both Kasper and Danielson but neither shout for sure NHL top line center. 2nd line maybe but I don't know if either have the offensive talent to be #1s.

The other big thing Yzerman needs to stop doing is signing meh guys for his 4th line. I'm down for physical forecheckers, excellent fo guys, or at least great pkers. We need a good change of pace energt line, and the guys he keeps bringing in don't do that. This was a failure of his in TB to, and once they addressed it they starting winning cups.

I like a lot of our prospects and we have a heck of back end (goalie and D) in the making but right now I'm looking at the Weber era Preds in the making because #1 C looks like it will be a glaring hole to fill.

If I'm going to have to wait a decade for a team, it better be one that will actually compete for a cup and not one that is perenial playoff fodder...

To be fair, Fischer had done that well for us in the past, and being an energetic PK guy was Motte's MO before signing here. I would love to see more bang added to the lineup, though.

 

[SuperScript29]

In terms or scouting/drafting, I think Yzerman has done a great job landing the youth we have today. Guys like Seider, Raymond, Edvinsson, Kasper, and Johansson are already making a big impact on the team, and hopefully the likes of ASP, Cossa, Danielson, etc follow the same pattern. So drafting and prospect development is not an issue.

Free agent signings and addressing immediate team holes on the other hand is a big problem. For starters, if your second best center is Copp, then you have a serious issue with quality down the middle. Then you have the defense, one half lacks experience and the other half useless weight. But the worst one imo is the low level goalies that we keep cycling. I get the feeling that Yzerman is waiting for Cossa to make a huge jump soon, but if that doesn't happen in the next season or two, he needs to address our goaltending.

 

[deca guard]

In terms or scouting/drafting, I think Yzerman has done a great job landing the youth we have today. Guys like Seider, Raymond, Edvinsson, Kasper, and Johansson are already making a big impact on the team, and hopefully the likes of ASP, Cossa, Danielson, etc follow the same pattern. So drafting and prospect development is not an issue.

Free agent signings and addressing immediate team holes on the other hand is a big problem. For starters, if your second best center is Copp, then you have a serious issue with quality down the middle. Then you have the defense, one half lacks experience and the other half useless weight. But the worst one imo is the low level goalies that we keep cycling. I get the feeling that Yzerman is waiting for Cossa to make a huge jump soon, but if that doesn't happen in the next season or two, he needs to address our goaltending.

if yzerman would have given better ufa than chariot-copp-jt-holl more cap n term we would have been better these past say 3 seasons but not good enough to get near cup . plus not had the cap to sign sides n rayz long term . and we would have been just good enough to weaken our draft spot and miss out on guys like kasper and danny whom might now become very important long term peices . and we'd be sitting here now with a better record but without two excellent 2 line center prospects . then once again be in playoffs this season without another chance at a 10'ish pick or a chance at cup while our better ufa he woulda signed go past their career prime heading team downward without prospects coming to pick up the slack . yzermans giving a master class in rebuilds . and from day one he had taken over the worst depth chart in nhl which destined a rebuild to take many years . yzermans not excellent with the spoken word , doesnt enjoy the media interaction , so i think many might see him as dense some times , but he knows how to build an organization from the ground up including culture which is prob why walmans gone and why company men with less talent like copp-chariot-jt are here . culture is huge in the nhl cuz if your not commited to it you wont thrive under the grueling grind !
THE YZER'FENCE IS BEING BUILT

 

[Pavels Dog]

What I am concerned about is how we're going to address and execute building this team up during the remainder of Larkin's very short window. Father time always wins, and with the mileage that Larkin has so far, I'm concerned that our best player will only have another 3-4 years left. Larkin will be entering his age 29 season in 2025-26. Could he be one of those that are still productive between ages 34-37? Sure, but I wouldn't count on it. So if he's our best center in the next 4 years, and Danielson + Kasper can't produce at high end 1C & 2C rates, then we're going to be in a very tough place moving forward.

It's been known for years that Larkin would be a veteran by the time this team is contending. Even with more aggressive moves, this team wouldn't be a cup contender this season and likely not the next. I don't see why this should come as news or a surprise to anyone.

Now that can be mitigated by having line driving wingers, but ideally you want centers to be the foundation of a strong team.

There's also plenty of examples of teams with balanced lineups having success. Balanced meaning it's not necessarily superstar centers as the foundation. Washington, Winnipeg and Dallas are the top 3 teams right now for example. Certainly Scheifele, Hintz and Strome are really good, but we're not talking about the classic Crosby/Malkin and McDavid/Draisatl build.

So how are we going to navigate around that? The Rantanen type of situations only come once in a blue moon. Marner will re-sign with the Leafs imo. So what do we do then?

You make it sound like only teams with Rantanen and Marner can win. I would gladly take a team with better depth, defense and goaltending over the top-heavy failure that is the Leafs.

What really scares me is posing the question of, what if Raymond, Seider, Edvinsson +++ isn’t good enough when compared against the rest of the league.

That is the nature of every team until the team breaks through and wins.

Imo, I'd start questioning the top players when the depth of the team stops having glaring holes. Raymond is 1 point off the point leader on Dallas. As a 22 year old. Seider's stats are very close to Heiskanen's, as a 23 year old. Is the major difference between us and Dallas that Raymond is worse than Robertson and Seider worse than Heiskanen, or is it the depth?

 

[LongTimeDRWF]

It's been known for years that Larkin would be a veteran by the time this team is contending. Even with more aggressive moves, this team wouldn't be a cup contender this season and likely not the next. I don't see why this should come as news or a surprise to anyone.


There's also plenty of examples of teams with balanced lineups having success. Balanced meaning it's not necessarily superstar centers as the foundation. Washington, Winnipeg and Dallas are the top 3 teams right now for example. Certainly Scheifele, Hintz and Strome are really good, but we're not talking about the classic Crosby/Malkin and McDavid/Draisatl build.



You make it sound like only teams with Rantanen and Marner can win. I would gladly take a team with better depth, defense and goaltending over the top-heavy failure that is the Leafs.


That is the nature of every team until the team breaks through and wins.

Imo, I'd start questioning the top players when the depth of the team stops having glaring holes. Raymond is 1 point off the point leader on Dallas. As a 22 year old. Seider's stats are very close to Heiskanen's, as a 23 year old. Is the major difference between us and Dallas that Raymond is worse than Robertson and Seider worse than Heiskanen, or is it the depth?

Yep, the day Bertuzzi was traded was the day it dawned on Larkin that there was to be no DRW cup contention during his prime window.

His choice was to stay and be the face of the wings while the build went on and be the inspiring longtime vet when the new core was ready to compete, or get moved to another team.

To his credit, he chose to stay and be part of it, there was and will be a lot more pain along the way, but I am sure he sees the glimmer of bright lights in the distance.

Looking back at this point last year, how many Yutes are on this year's version of the DRWs and they are still in the think of things in March? (My quick count is 4, not counting Mazur or Ed and 3 of the 4 are not 1st round picks) The DRW have 6 skaters on the roster 24 yo or younger (7 if you include Mazur) and maybe another 2-3 knocking on the door by the start of next season.

Depth takes time to build, you need it at all levels of the organization, and it is starting to show up, in another 5-8 years time, if things are off the rails, then it is time to question SY.

 

[Hockeyfan2390]

Yzerman has purposefully committed to rebuilding through the draft. We all knew this on day 1 of the rebuild and every singe one of us supported it. In reality that is a long process when you’re drafting 18 year olds.

To that point Yzerman’s 3rd 1st round pick is up to 84 career games and still early in his development path. Edvinsson’s athletic prime years are 2-9 years away and he is intended to be a foundational piece of this rebuild.

Hedman won his first of two (and counting) cups after being in the league for 11 years. That’s 6 more years for Moritz Seider. That’s 9 more years for Simon Edvinsson.

A long term move would have been nice but now is not the time to get impatient with the process.

Sure, the Red Wings have the second longest postseason drought in the NHL (even longer than the 70s Dead Things era) and they’re about to miss for the 6th straight year under Yzerman.

But let’s not get impatient. Right.

 

[Henkka]

Imo, I'd start questioning the top players when the depth of the team stops having glaring holes. Raymond is 1 point off the point leader on Dallas. As a 22 year old. Seider's stats are very close to Heiskanen's, as a 23 year old. Is the major difference between us and Dallas that Raymond is worse than Robertson and Seider worse than Heiskanen, or is it the depth?

What's remarkable, Raymond is still ahead of the development of Nikita Kucherov at same age.

Lucas is currently the best point-producer from 2021 draft, ahead of Stutzle.

Raymond as 22,9-year old, 1.03 points per game (season 2024-25)
Kucherov as 22,9-years old, 0.79 points per game (season 2014-15) + 0.84 points per game at the playoffs)

Raymond as 22-year old, 0.88 points per game (season 2023-24)
Kucherov as 22-year old 0.34 points per game (season 2013-14, was promoted from AHL)

Yeah, Kucherov was a bit of late boomer, and Raymond's point-development is more line with Rantanen and Marner.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Sure, the Red Wings have the second longest postseason drought in the NHL (even longer than the 70s Dead Things era) and they’re about to miss for the 6th straight year under Yzerman.

But let’s not get impatient. Right.

I don't really understand why there's such a hangup about the drought. If you're impatient, you'll be equally impatient if they get crushed in the 1st round. What changes, really? Playoff drought or not, this isn't the 70s anymore. ~10 year "droughts" before becoming a perennially competitive team isn't that unusual.

Dallas 2008-2018 (2 playoff appearances)
Colorado 2008-2017 (2 playoff appearances)
Carolina 2009-2018 (0 playoff appearances)
Florida 2005-2019 (2 playoff appearances)
Toronto 2005-2016 (1 playoff appearance)
Winnipeg 2011-2017 (1 playoff appearance losing 4-0)

You either believe in the process or not.

 

[Henkka]

I don't really understand why there's such a hangup about the drought. If you're impatient, you'll be equally impatient if they get crushed in the 1st round. What changes, really? Playoff drought or not, this isn't the 70s anymore. ~10 year "droughts" before becoming a perennially competitive team isn't that unusual.

You either believe in the process or not.

It's still funny how the process won't differ much from Tampa example.

When you adjust the team development like this:

2008 Stamkos-draft = our equivalent for 2019 Seider-draft
2009 Hedman-draft = our equivalent for 2020 Raymond-draft
- Yzerman will join Tampa ~2 months before 2010 draft, and will build 2010-11 season team as his first season.
- Yzerman will join Detroit ~2 months before 2019 draft, and will build 2019-20 season team as his first season.

So Yzerman joined Detroit 2 years earlier of the comparable timeline. This is why this is taking longer. He joined Tampa when their "seider and raymond" as stammer and hedman were already in place. At Detroit, he had to draft them by himself.

At Detroit, he also inherited an abysmal roster and prospect core, and did not have Art Ross -level guy like Martin St Louis at Tampa.

So any Yzerman year at Tampa is RedWings+2 year at Detroit.

Tampa did reach the playoffs on their first year at 2010-11, and YZerman was named GM of the year. But hey did regress 2 seasons in-a-row after that, and were out of the playoffs.

It's a totally different path than Detroit is having, like we are improving every year. Progressive growth 39-> 48-> 74-> 80-> 91 points. Tampa always had huge jump, then took 2 steps behind, after a new jump, like Coaching change to Cooper, or next coaching change, changing Cooper's assistants.

But Detroit comparable years are:

TBL 2011-12 (out of the playoffs)
TBL 2012-13 (out of the playoffs)
TBL 2013-14 (did reach the playoffs, 1st exit) = DET 2024-25
TBL 2014-15 (did reach SC finals) = DET 2025-26
TBL 2015-16 (3rd round exit) = DET 2026-27
TBL 2016-17 (out of the playoffs)
TBL 2017-18 (3rd round exit)
TBL 2018-19 (1st round exit)
TBL 2019-20 (Stanley Cup) = DET 2030-31 season

This is how long it took for the best organization from near history. It took 12 years from the Stamkos draft.

First 5 years since Stamkos draft, they reached the playoffs only 1/5. And the last 7 years they were 1 out of the playoffs, 2x 1st round exits, 2x Conference Finals, 1 Finals, and finally, 1 Cup win.

Yzerman-lead Tampa mostly did start their youth movement at seasons 2012-13 and 2013-14, which did bring them a huge lift in next years. Their earlier years were built with placeholders around Stammer and Hedman.

We are experimenting the same era now. There was also the almost identical Boucher --> Cooper change at their timeline as we are having now from Lalonde --> McLellan.

 

[SirloinUB]

Sure, the Red Wings have the second longest postseason drought in the NHL (even longer than the 70s Dead Things era) and they’re about to miss for the 6th straight year under Yzerman.

But let’s not get impatient. Right.

As a fan you can be impatient but in a thread asking where the plan went wrong - well I don't even accept that premise.

Rebuilding through the draft is a long, slow process. As I've mentioned, Simon Edvinsson, one of the key pieces of the rebuild from GMSY's 3rd year on the job, hasn't even played a complete season and we have a thread asking "where did the rebuild go wrong?"

How can we have a convo about what went wrong when his key rebuild pieces are still early in their development cycle? Half of his draft picks are 21 or younger.

Larkin, Debrincat, seider, Raymond, Edvinsson, Soderblom, Cossa, AlJo, ASP, Kasper MBN & Danielson have an average age of 22. Yzerman's draft picks have an average of 105 career games and only two of those guys have played more than 85 games, heavily skewing that average up.

For context, Kucherov/Stamkos/Hedman had an average age of 27.6 when they won their first cup.

The cold hard reality is we're still pretty early in this thing.

 

[Our Lady Peace]

To the point above; we've heard too much whining about how long it's taking for Detroit's prospects to hit the NHL and how few NHL games have been played by them and to that I have to say.....

...No shit? That's called development? It's why Edvinsson has become a legit #3 stepping right into the NHL. It's why Seider won the Calder at age 20. It's why Johansson as a late 2nd has taken this long. It's gonna be why Cossa doesn't stumble and crash and burn when he hits the NHL. When he comes up, he will be ready to stay for good. Let's look at Rasmussen - 19 year old rushed to the NHL and his offense never materialized. Never really developed an effective way to be a 6'6 center

Another thing that people still seem to not understand, is that drafting and developing your own players ultimately maintains the most value in your assets. If you have homegrown talent and build around that, eventually you're gonna hold the cards and can even trade away some (or 1st round picks) to another team willing to sell off a veteran at their perceived same value or less

Clamouring to "blow it up" when some of our top assets haven't fully matured is dumb stuff. Is it dumber than us having mickey-moused a few trades and signings of veterans that have no bearing on the future of this team? You decide, I guess

I think too many people forget how painful it was watching Edmonton, Toronto, Vancouver, Montreal, Arizona, Colorado, Florida, and Buffalo (still) go abouts their rebuilds in the salary cap era. The drafting and developing was brutal for longer than us, and all with higher picks than us (except Vancouver). Common denominator seems to be impatience

 

[saska sault]

To the point above; we've heard too much whining about how long it's taking for Detroit's prospects to hit the NHL and how few NHL games have been played by them and to that I have to say.....

...No shit? That's called development? It's why Edvinsson has become a legit #3 stepping right into the NHL. It's why Seider won the Calder at age 20. It's why Johansson as a late 2nd has taken this long. It's gonna be why Cossa doesn't stumble and crash and burn when he hits the NHL. When he comes up, he will be ready to stay for good. Let's look at Rasmussen - 19 year old rushed to the NHL and his offense never materialized. Never really developed an effective way to be a 6'6 center

Another thing that people still seem to not understand, is that drafting and developing your own players ultimately maintains the most value in your assets. If you have homegrown talent and build around that, eventually you're gonna hold the cards and can even trade away some (or 1st round picks) to another team willing to sell off a veteran at their perceived same value or less

Clamouring to "blow it up" when some of our top assets haven't fully matured is dumb stuff. Is it dumber than us having mickey-moused a few trades and signings of veterans that have no bearing on the future of this team? You decide, I guess

I think too many people forget how painful it was watching Edmonton, Toronto, Vancouver, Montreal, Arizona, Colorado, Florida, and Buffalo (still) go abouts their rebuilds in the salary cap era. The drafting and developing was brutal for longer than us, and all with higher picks than us (except Vancouver). Common denominator seems to be impatience

Its not the greatest comparison but its relevant since I live in a heavy Toronto fan base area. Trading 1st round picks is like the Kessel trade... moved the needle just a bit immediately then set the team back for years to come. They had other issues of course but impatience was a common theme.

 

[Winger98]

To the point above; we've heard too much whining about how long it's taking for Detroit's prospects to hit the NHL and how few NHL games have been played by them and to that I have to say.....

...No shit? That's called development? It's why Edvinsson has become a legit #3 stepping right into the NHL. It's why Seider won the Calder at age 20. It's why Johansson as a late 2nd has taken this long. It's gonna be why Cossa doesn't stumble and crash and burn when he hits the NHL. When he comes up, he will be ready to stay for good. Let's look at Rasmussen - 19 year old rushed to the NHL and his offense never materialized. Never really developed an effective way to be a 6'6 center

Another thing that people still seem to not understand, is that drafting and developing your own players ultimately maintains the most value in your assets. If you have homegrown talent and build around that, eventually you're gonna hold the cards and can even trade away some (or 1st round picks) to another team willing to sell off a veteran at their perceived same value or less

Clamouring to "blow it up" when some of our top assets haven't fully matured is dumb stuff. Is it dumber than us having mickey-moused a few trades and signings of veterans that have no bearing on the future of this team? You decide, I guess

I think too many people forget how painful it was watching Edmonton, Toronto, Vancouver, Montreal, Arizona, Colorado, Florida, and Buffalo (still) go abouts their rebuilds in the salary cap era. The drafting and developing was brutal for longer than us, and all with higher picks than us (except Vancouver). Common denominator seems to be impatience

And we are so close to seeing it payoff.

 

[Our Lady Peace]

Its not the greatest comparison but its relevant since I live in a heavy Toronto fan base area. Trading 1st round picks is like the Kessel trade... moved the needle just a bit immediately then set the team back for years to come. They had other issues of course but impatience was a common theme.

Not to mention that Boston wins the cup within a year after drafting Seguin at #2 and then in 2013 "it was 4-1" where Seguin primary assisted on Bergeron's 5-4 OT winner game 7

That Kessel trade was a far greater curse on the Leafs franchise than anything we've had since we last made the playoffs lol. We are not even half the laughing stock and meme that these other teams have been