Confirmed with Link: Zetterlund, Robins, 4th to Ottawa for 2025 2nd, Zack Ostapchuk, Noah Gregor

[Cas]

What's funny is if Ostapchuk ends up becoming a 35 point player, he'll probably be making the same as or more than what Zetterlund wanted when he's up for a new contract.

Yes, and because he would be more valuable, that's not a problem.

 

[TheBeard]

Yes, and because he would be more valuable, that's not a problem.

Why, because he's the 3C by default? Let's see if he can handle the job first.

 

[Cas]

Why, because he's the 3C by default? Let's see if he can handle the job first.

Well, the parameters said 35 point player, and I presumed that included playing as a EC, presumably with heavy PK duties, so it seems the assumption was that he had already shown he could handle the job.

 

[jbeck5]

If he's truly so good defensively and physically that he's pushing play as a 20 point player, that's a different story, sure. I can't claim to be an expert on Ostapchuk so I'll simply say that I hope you are quite right.

And to be fair, this is the player he projects to be. He came out making jaw dropping defensive plays...but over the course of the season, we either became used to it, or he struggled to maintain that level of play for the full season, like most rookies. That, and we expect more offense out of him in the future, which is why he was sent down..we didn't want to ruin his offensive upside.

The goal was for him to play 1st or 2nd line center in the AHL and do it all...ppg, physical, pk...etc.like Tkachuk who's good defensively and Pks, but at the AHL level.

Due to injuries,we played him up more than we would have liked.

But he safely projects as one of your top physical and top defensive forwards...when you're competing. I just think that has a lot of value.

You guys bought low because of his NHL Stateline, but it's about to blow up with better opportunities. He got put beside 2 Ahlers and his game is defense first
..and he's a rookie. You almost couldn't expect any offense from him this year at the NHL level.

I also agree he doesn't have the offense of guys we previously developed like Norris or batherson or even Greig (he's sneaky skilled), but he's just a step below them, but he's much stronger and better defensive game than most at the same age (minus pinto).

Think of a kastelic that's muchhhh better defensively and also better offensively. (Kastelic is putting up a 20 pts pace) So he's going to get more than 20 points that's for sure.

And look at his WHL playoff Stateline from a couple years ago:

12GP - 7G - 16A - 23PTS

He definitely has untapped offensive potential and plays big in big games.

Played and excelled in a team Canada world Juniors role as as defensive specialist and physical forward 2 years in a row.

He's much more valuable than the 2nd in 2025 IMO.

 

[TheBeard]

Well, the parameters said 35 point player, and I presumed that included playing as a EC, presumably with heavy PK duties, so it seems the assumption was that he had already shown he could handle the job.

I mean he could ultimately end up with inflated numbers over the next couple of years simply because the team is void of alternatives. Hope you're right though.

 

[Juxtaposer]

And to be fair, this is the player he projects to be. He came out making jaw dropping defensive plays...but over the course of the season, we either became used to it, or he struggled to maintain that level of play for the full season, like most rookies. That, and we expect more offense out of him in the future, which is why he was sent down..we didn't want to ruin his offensive upside.

The goal was for him to play 1st or 2nd line center in the AHL and do it all...ppg, physical, pk...etc.like Tkachuk who's good defensively and Pks, but at the AHL level.

Due to injuries,we played him up more than we would have liked.

But he safely projects as one of your top physical and top defensive forwards...when you're competing. I just think that has a lot of value.

You guys bought low because of his NHL Stateline, but it's about to blow up with better opportunities. He got put beside 2 Ahlers and his game is defense first
..and he's a rookie. You almost couldn't expect any offense from him this year at the NHL level.

I also agree he doesn't have the offense of guys we previously developed like Norris or batherson or even Greig (he's sneaky skilled), but he's just a step below them, but he's much stronger and better defensive game than most at the same age (minus pinto).

Think of a kastelic that's muchhhh better defensively and also better offensively. (Kastelic is putting up a 20 pts pace) So he's going to get more than 20 points that's for sure.

And look at his WHL playoff Stateline from a couple years ago:

12GP - 7G - 16A - 23PTS

He definitely has untapped offensive potential and plays big in big games.

Played and excelled in a team Canada world Juniors role as as defensive specialist and physical forward 2 years in a row.

He's much more valuable than the 2nd in 2025 IMO.

You'll get no arguments from me on the bolded.

But now that I'm looking at his EP page, I'm shocked to see he played for the Winnipeg Ice in 2022-2023. I watched probably 30 Ice games that season scouting Zach Benson and I hardly remember Ostapchuk at all. I remember Benson, McClennon, Savoie, Geekie, and Lambos well, but hardly anything about Ostapchuk...

 

[jbeck5]

You'll get no arguments from me on the bolded.

But now that I'm looking at his EP page, I'm shocked to see he played for the Winnipeg Ice in 2022-2023. I watched probably 30 Ice games that season scouting Zach Benson and I hardly remember Ostapchuk at all. I remember Benson, McClennon, Savoie, Geekie, and Lambos well, but hardly anything about Ostapchuk...

Not sure why. He's not flashy so maybe that's why.

An interesting aspect is he KO'd rempe in junior. He dummied mailloux in the AHL.

I don't know of your stance on fighting, but you're going to be getting one of the new generations better fighters, who can skate like the wind and play on a third line and a PK. He's going to be a fan favourite.

 

[Pavelski2112]

Coincidentally, this just feels like the Meier trade where Devils fans were telling us how good Zetterlund was and all of us were just like "dude please leave, stop trying to make us feel better".

Remains to be seen whether it ends up the same or not but I thought that was funny.

 

[Jargon]

If I were the Sharks, I'd be trying Kovalenko-Ostapchuk-Graf now to see how they play together and if it has any sort of potential. All three of those guys are at that 3rd line level with a decent mix of skills that could work.

I suspect that they will. It’s the last 20 games of the season and Dellandrea is our 3C, so I can imagine they’ll drop him to 4C and try Ostapchuk. That would be a really fun line to see, actually. Fast, defensive but with some skill. We can see if Graf and Kovalenko can ricochet pucks off of Ostapchuk.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Not sure why. He's not flashy so maybe that's why.

An interesting aspect is he KO'd rempe in junior. He dummied mailloux in the AHL.

I don't know of your stance on fighting, but you're going to be getting one of the new generations better fighters, who can skate like the wind and play on a third line and a PK. He's going to be a fan favourite.

Yeah, the non-flashy juniors guys tend to be forgettable. But the vast majority of NHL players who came from the CHL were once flashy players, even if they didn't remain so in the pros, which is my hesitation.

I'm pro-fighting if it's not a sideshow. If he's a legit heavy-weight and a useful player, then I welcome him.

I do appreciate all your insight, thank you for all this info.

Coincidentally, this just feels like the Meier trade where Devils fans were telling us how good Zetterlund was and all of us were just like "dude please leave, stop trying to make us feel better".

Remains to be seen whether it ends up the same or not but I thought that was funny.

I had the same exact thought. I know I was very down on the Meier trade when it happened and didn't want to repeat that meltdown for this one.

 

[JoeThorntonsRooster]

One thing to keep in mind is that on top of the whole 4 points in 43 games thing, even Ostapchuk’s defensive results have been bad at the NHL level.

He is very sheltered, facing some of the weakest competition in the NHL, and yet at 5v5, Ottawa still allows shots and xG at a higher rate with him on the ice than they do with him on the bench. (And he even has a larger percentage of his faceoffs in the OZ than the team does without him). It’s no surprise that regression models like mine and Evolving Hockey grade him below average defensively.

Of course, there are many caveats - he is only 21, his numbers looked better without Noah Gregor, etc. But based on his results right now, if you are a contending team and this guy is your 4C, one of your biggest needs at the trade deadline is an upgrade in that role. Ottawa, a bubble team, clearly agreed since they ultimately sent him down. He is not some yet established 4C by any measure.

 

[jbeck5]

Yeah, the non-flashy juniors guys tend to be forgettable. But the vast majority of NHL players who came from the CHL were once flashy players, even if they didn't remain so in the pros, which is my hesitation.

I'm pro-fighting if it's not a sideshow. If he's a legit heavy-weight and a useful player, then I welcome him.

I do appreciate all your insight, thank you for all this info.


I had the same exact thought. I know I was very down on the Meier trade when it happened and didn't want to repeat that meltdown for this one.

I basically had every hesitation you had when arguing with sens fans who said he had 2C potential, but not for 3C.

He was put in a defensive role on a bad AHL team and also almost put 20 goals as a rookie. Then was just starting to get more offensive deployment in his sophomore year when he got called up.. no doubt if he stays down, he's flirting with ppg. he was just put in a bad position.

Heck, Joe Thornton only had 3 goals and 4 assists in 55 games for Boston in his rookie year.

I take rookie years with a grain of salt when predicting their prime years.

The thing with other players, is if they're putting up bad numbers will get sent down so they won't have this really awful looking stat line.

With ostapchuk, the bad thing is that he only projects as a 3C and he's so good defensively and physically, that they were almost less worried about ruining his offensive game that they kept him up. So the fact he's physically ready and defensively ready hurt his offensive Statline because he wasn't offensively ready, even if he will be down the road. He doesn't get the benefit of being sent down in the same situation where a smaller less defensively able forward would get sent back down...and then you might only see 1 assist in 8 games and wouldn't get worried... Ostapchuk didn't have that benefit due do his abilities.

 

[Jargon]

One thing to keep in mind is that on top of the whole 4 points in 43 games thing, even Ostapchuk’s defensive results have been bad at the NHL level.

He is very sheltered, facing some of the weakest competition in the NHL, and yet at 5v5, Ottawa still allows shots and xG at a higher rate with him on the ice than they do with him on the bench. (And he even has a larger percentage of his faceoffs in the OZ than the team does without him). It’s no surprise that regression models like mine and Evolving Hockey grade him below average defensively.

Of course, there are many caveats - he is only 21, his numbers looked better without Noah Gregor, etc. But based on his results right now, if you are a contending team and this guy is your 4C, one of your biggest needs at the trade deadline is an upgrade in that role. Ottawa, a bubble team, clearly agreed since they ultimately sent him down. He is not some yet established 4C by any measure.

It does sound like he was called up possibly a bit earlier than was ideal? It sort of feels like he’s got all the tools but at 21, still really needs to be molded. I mean, a power forward takes longer to develop, a power forward who is expected to be a shut down center is even harder.

But yeah, as someone else said, this is one of the bigger tests of Grier’s development staff. Scouting seems to be all over the place for this guy — if they loved him enough to move Zetts, they believe he can be what they said he can be… now we have to see if they can make that happen.

 

[jbeck5]

One thing to keep in mind is that on top of the whole 4 points in 43 games thing, even Ostapchuk’s defensive results have been bad at the NHL level.

He is very sheltered, facing some of the weakest competition in the NHL, and yet at 5v5, Ottawa still allows shots and xG at a higher rate with him on the ice than they do with him on the bench. (And he even has a larger percentage of his faceoffs in the OZ than the team does without him). It’s no surprise that regression models like mine and Evolving Hockey grade him below average defensively.

Of course, there are many caveats - he is only 21, his numbers looked better without Noah Gregor, etc. But based on his results right now, if you are a contending team and this guy is your 4C, one of your biggest needs at the trade deadline is an upgrade in that role. Ottawa, a bubble team, clearly agreed since they ultimately sent him down. He is not some yet established 4C by any measure.

One thing to keep in mind is production vs abilities/talents.

He's a rookie and has made mistakes and has had problems with keeping up with the pace over a full season like many players do. They have ups and downs.

His defensive numbers might not look good in his rookie year, but his defensive skill definitely does.

It's like seeing a guy who has all the offensive tools put up a bad statline in his rookie year...doesn't mean he doesn't have the offensive abilities...

I mentioned it earlier, but Thornton having a 55-3-4-7 rookie Statline didn't mean he didn't show offensive flashes and abilities that pointed to a high offensive potential.

At worse, hes been a 4th liner on a team pacing for the playoffs...in his rookie year. His upside is that of a 3rd liner defensive and physical specialist who should be able to get about 30 pts. Very valuable.

 

[STL Shark]

If I were the Sharks, I'd be trying Kovalenko-Ostapchuk-Graf now to see how they play together and if it has any sort of potential. All three of those guys are at that 3rd line level with a decent mix of skills that could work.

I'd have Kovalenko higher in the lineup for the rest of the season to try and pump and dump him this offseason. The comments/drama with Warsofsky isn't going to make that RFA/Arb negotiation fun for SJ so send him somewhere else as a cheap filler with a 2nd rounder for someone like Cuylle.

Tell NYR to take that deal or we're signing him to a $4.5M offer sheet and you only get the 2nd rounder (plus remember how we did you a solid and took Goodrow).

 

[Juxtaposer]

One thing to keep in mind is production vs abilities/talents.

He's a rookie and has made mistakes and has had problems with keeping up with the pace over a full season like many players do. They have ups and downs.

His defensive numbers might not look good in his rookie year, but his defensive skill definitely does.

It's like seeing a guy who has all the offensive tools put up a bad statline in his rookie year...doesn't mean he doesn't have the offensive abilities...

I mentioned it earlier, but Thornton having a 55-3-4-7 rookie Statline didn't mean he didn't show offensive flashes and abilities that pointed to a high offensive potential.

At worse, hes been a 4th liner on a team pacing for the playoffs...in his rookie year. His upside is that of a 3rd liner defensive and physical specialist who should be able to get about 30 pts. Very valuable.

Joe Thornton was 18 years old... Ostapchuk is almost 22. When Thornton was 22, he was a point per game NHL center. I wish people would stop comparing every big guy having trouble producing in the NHL to Thornton.

 

[Jargon]

SarJoe Thornton was 18 years old... Ostapchuk is almost 22. When Thornton was 22, he was a point per game NHL center. I wish people would stop comparing every big guy having trouble producing in the NHL to Thornton.

Okay but to be fair when Joe Thornton started posting on hockey message boards he also compared everyone to Joe Thornton.

 

[JoeThorntonsRooster]

One thing to keep in mind is production vs abilities/talents.

He's a rookie and has made mistakes and has had problems with keeping up with the pace over a full season like many players do. They have ups and downs.

His defensive numbers might not look good in his rookie year, but his defensive skill definitely does.

It's like seeing a guy who has all the offensive tools put up a bad statline in his rookie year...doesn't mean he doesn't have the offensive abilities...

I mentioned it earlier, but Thornton having a 55-3-4-7 rookie Statline didn't mean he didn't show offensive flashes and abilities that pointed to a high offensive potential.

At worse, hes been a 4th liner on a team pacing for the playoffs...in his rookie year. His upside is that of a 3rd liner defensive and physical specialist who should be able to get about 30 pts. Very valuable.

How has he been “at worst” a 4th liner when his results have been below 4th line caliber and the team sent him down to the minors before trading him?

 

[timorous me]

Joe Thornton was 18 years old... Ostapchuk is almost 22. When Thornton was 22, he was a point per game NHL center. I wish people would stop comparing every big guy having trouble producing in the NHL to Thornton.

The good news is that 30 points is a lot closer to 4 than 100 (or 125, if you want to use Jumbo's peak) is to 7!

It's obviously a joke comparing a guy like Ostapchuk to Jumbo, but expectations here don't feel particularly unreasonable. I like the comparison one of the scouts Sheng talked to of Jack McBain. I mean, in two or three years, with better linemates and a year of NHL experience (well, more than a year by then) under his belt, is an 8g, 18a season, or an 11g, 8a season (this year, at 25) really too much to hope for from Ostapchuk? I don't think so.

Doesn't mean he will get there, but it's not an unreasonable bet. And my hope is that in three or four years, when things are ideally starting to happen for this Sharks team, they'll have second line wingers who are better than Zetterlund (no offense to a guy I like, but he will be replaceable--except in Eklund's heart--externally and hopefully internally).

 

[Juxtaposer]

The good news is that 30 points is a lot closer to 4 than 100 (or 125, if you want to use Jumbo's peak) is to 7!

It's obviously a joke comparing a guy like Ostapchuk to Jumbo, but expectations here don't feel particularly unreasonable. I like the comparison one of the scouts Sheng talked to of Jack McBain. I mean, in two or three years, with better linemates and a year of NHL experience (well, more than a year by then) under his belt, is an 8g, 18a season, or an 11g, 8a season (this year, at 25) really too much to hope for from Ostapchuk? I don't think so.

Doesn't mean he will get there, but it's not an unreasonable bet. And my hope is that in three or four years, when things are ideally starting to happen for this Sharks team, they'll have second line wingers who are better than Zetterlund (no offense to a guy I like, but he will be replaceable--except in Eklund's heart--externally and hopefully internally).

No, Jack McBain isn't an unrealistic goal for Zack Ostapchuk. I was just speaking generally that I'm tired of seeing guys compared to Thornton's rookie season just because they're big and unproductive or Thornton's unproductive rookie season used as a "anything can happen!" sort of catch-all when you question a young player's upside when he is unproductive.

 

[jbeck5]

Joe Thornton was 18 years old... Ostapchuk is almost 22. When Thornton was 22, he was a point per game NHL center. I wish people would stop comparing every big guy having trouble producing in the NHL to Thornton.

I'm not comparing their lack of production. I'm comparing them as both having good abilities(Thornton with offense, and ostapchuk with defense)but being green at the NHL level and that despite a lack of stats to show, they had abilities that would later translate well at the NHL level.

Did you think I was saying "because Thorntons offense struggled in his rookie season, that means ostapchuks offense will take off"? Because that wasn't at all what I was saying. I was talking about ostapchuks DEFENSIVE abilities and stats, and how development isn't linear with a players specific talents and abilities.

All these other super defensive players Ottawa has developed (Fisher...Kelly...pageau...etc) they all struggled with advance stats at the start, or got sheltered minutes,.whatever, but they all showed defensive skills and abilities. Ostapchuk shows those skills and abilities. He can wow you with a defensive play. It's refreshing to see. But because he's a rookie, he can also make mistakes. It's about projecting his defensive abilities once he learns to cut out those mistakes. He can do things defensively other guys don't ever do even after 500 games which is something to get excited about.

How has he been “at worst” a 4th liner when his results have been below 4th line caliber and the team sent him down to the minors before trading him?

Because we only sent him down because it was better for his development.

We actually held a 3rd in the division spot ahead of Tampa with him in the 4C spot all year.

So obviously he's adequate as a 4C for a team to have success.

It's just better for his development to get some AHL time where he's the man.

 

[sampler]

Its way way too early to pass judgment on Zach. 21 is young and besides, I remember a certain someone thinking that Smith needs AHL time and is far from NHL ready earlier this year (MMMMmmmm.... Crow is so delicious).

Obviously Grier sees something there. Ive never seen him play but playing 9 mins/gm on the 4th line in Ottawa is not a good use of a 21 year old prospect. it would be like playing smith on the 4th line for 9 mins with goodrow and dyllandrea. Not a good use. Either Give zach a solid 12-14 mins/gm with real linemates, or marinade in the AHL. The Sens dropped the ball there (although, they also did flip him for a clear 25 year old top 9 20+goal scoring physcial forward).

I am perfectly fine with bringing him into SJ, pairing him on a 3rd line with Graf and Kostin and letting the size of that line do it's thing. (Wellberg-Toff-Eklund, Kovy with the kids as the top 2 lines). the next 17 games are just an extended tryout. I like the idea of giving Cagnoni a look (although if he bombs, you could actually LOWER his trade value), Osty on the 3rd line, and maybe bring back Cardwell.

I am still a cardwell fan despite his size, so I hope they keep him.

Let's see what we got before deciding anything.

Is Osty in the lineup tonight?

 

[Shark Finn]

Grier wants Eklund to be friends with Celebrini and Smith, hence the trade.

 

[karltonian]

I'm not comparing their lack of production. I'm comparing them as both having good abilities(Thornton with offense, and ostapchuk with defense)but being green at the NHL level and that despite a lack of stats to show, they had abilities that would later translate well at the NHL level.

It's best not to compare Thornton's path to anyone. Joe f***ing Thornton was one of the best to ever do it before and after that rookie season.

 

[jarr92]

I wonder how much Zetterlund's value will drop if he continues to be played for only 10 minutes per game on the Sens 4th line.