Where did Yzerman go wrong with the rebuild?

[connellc]

As a casual fan, even I knew that Holland left the team in shambles. I figured, with the picks Yzerman had, it would take at least 6 years to get back to decency. With that being said, I do think Yzerman deserves some critism here. His 2019 draft picks can no longer be buried and he's basically rid himself of all but the Abdelcater contract. This team is 95% of braintrust. I'd give him a passing grade, but based on the hype coming in people assumed he was some "guru" that could turn things around like he did in Tampa, he's failed.

My main fear is we get stuck in a perpetual middle position of missing the playoffs, without any cap space, which is entirely a possibility. I was in favor of tanking one more year to solidify another pick, but I'm not sure fans and management were patient enough for that. Edmonton with poor management took 10 years and 3 straight 1st overall picks, and half a dozen coaches, and came within 1 game of the Cup. Eventually being a cellar dweller, works if you get luck and get that lotto pick.

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

Sorry. I agree. It was absolutely vital they signed a stud like Copp. Where would they be without him

Ah yes, snarky sarcasm when someone actually refutes your claims.

 

[SoupNazi]

Sorry. I agree. It was absolutely vital they signed a stud like Copp. Where would they be without him

I enjoy how you just completely ignored the question in @Lazlo Hollyfeld's second sentence. But I'm curious: Do you really think Yzerman gave Copp 5 years when he could've gotten him for shorter?

 

[SirloinUB]

i sometimes can't tell if y'all are being intentionally obtuse or you really have no idea what other teams draft. there are plenty of high skill, high(er) risk guys every year that yzerman does not like drafting, in the 1st round and plenty beyond. i'll stick with just the 1st:

2024 - Trevor Connelly, Michael Hage, Liam Greentree instead of MBN
2023 - Benson (really wanted), Wood, Perrault (really wanted him), Sale instead of Danielson
2022 - Miroshnichenko, Yurov, Nazar, Savoie instead of Kasper

I'm not saying we should always be taking this kind of player (or you end up like buffalo), but you need some balance, and Yzerman has not been balanced in his time here. It's funny that the one player they targeted in the 1st round with really high upside and really high risk - ASP - is now our best prospect and the only potential elite/franchise non-NHL player we have in the system.

Many of those guys will bust, whereas MBN/Danielson/Kasper will at least be 3rd liners. But the question that I always ask, and I still haven't gotten a good response, is what is the point of drafting low end 2nd/high end 3rd liners in the 1st round?

You can find these players in FA every single year, without too much difficulty. Copp is a very good third liner. Compher is a good third liner. Rasmussen is a good third liner. Fischer is a good third liner. All these guys are not hard to find.

What is hard to find is the elite forwards that can drive play, and we should be taking a risk to get those players in the 1st round.

How would the future of this team look if we took at least one of Gabriel Perrault instead of Danielson or Miro instead of Kasper? I think much better, because those guys have true elite upside.

At some point draft position is not an excuse. Yzerman has to be held responsible if he's passing half a decade with the team looking worse than it did last year.

In regards to the bold, do you believe that’s what yzerman is targeting?

Or is it more likely that you and him have a different idea of what a high ceiling player looks like?

I think it’s the latter.

 

[SirloinUB]

Yes they had to spend the money for that season. They didn't have to lock themselves into contracts of that length for that quality of players.

Sorry. I agree. It was absolutely vital they signed a stud like Copp. Where would they be without him

Who are the better players that would have signed for less term in Detroit when the Red Wings were at their absolute worst?

 

[better Red than Dead]

To me, the issue is the pro scouts here. They are the ones responsible for finding players in other organizations, among many other tasks, and if you look at their free agent signing an and acquisitions it’s been pretty poor. I’d give that a house cleaning quite frankly because they are failing

 

[RedHawkDown]

In regards to the bold, do you believe that’s what yzerman is targeting?

Or is it more likely that you and him have a different idea of what a high ceiling player looks like?

I think it’s the latter.

I have no idea. I am not a mind reader.

I would think Yzerman evaluates talent at least somewhat similar to all of the publicly available scouting services, all of which labelled the guys we drafted as low(er) ceiling low risk guys.

If he thinks he is smarter than everybody else and knows guys are super high ceiling that everyone else thinks are low ceiling, that’s his prerogative, but then he’s got to show the associated results. So far Kasper and Danielson have shown nothing to indicate they’re very high ceiling players. They seem like all the scouting services said - safe, reliable 2way forwards capable of 50-65 pts in their prime.

 

[RedHawkDown]

All three? Yeah. At least one of them? No.
Again, all about balance.

Let's be honest if we picked Benson, Hage and Savoie we would be bitching still.

 

[FMichael]

Who are the better players that would have signed for less term in Detroit when the Red Wings were at their absolute worst?

It’s people who think every UFA in July has “McDavids” just waiting to find a new home…And these very same people question why Yzerman hasn’t found generational talent in the draft…I mean being so bad and all those draft picks.

 

[SirKillalot]

I would think Yzerman evaluates talent at least somewhat similar to all of the publicly available scouting services, all of which labelled the guys we drafted as low(er) ceiling low risk guys.

Given that Seider got drafted 6th, I think not.

So far Kasper and Danielson have shown nothing to indicate they’re very high ceiling players.

They also haven't shown they are only 3rd line players or low ceiling players either.

So maybe we should just agree that they should be allowed to get to that point development wise first and be given the opportunity first to show what part of the scale they will start on and what they will become. So, how many years shall we give them from the point they get to that starting point?

 

[SirloinUB]

All three? Yeah. At least one of them? No.
Again, all about balance.

In the summer of 2022 The Red Wings were about 10 Million below the cap floor. This means they needed to take on at least 10 million of cap (maybe even 15M to facilitate the selling of other expiring assets).


Let's run through a hypothetical parallel reality:

1. Instead of Copp Yzerman signs one of Trochek or Killorn, or Palat or Nyquist etc.
2. Instead of Chairot Yzernman signs one of Gudas or Clifton or Gudbranson or Mikkola or Seigenthaler or Orlov, etc.
3. Instead of drafting Kasper drafts Savoie
4. Instead of drafting Danielson drafts Dvorsky or Benson

That team isn't on any different of a trajectory than the one Yzermen built. The vets are interchangeable and its far too early to say which of the prospects will work out better. In some cases, Id even say its a worse trajectory depending on specifics (Trochek/Gudbranson)

The only two guys that were available that would have meaningfully altered the trajectory of this team would have been Gaudreau or Hamilton. And in both cases it is impossible to know if either were pursued/had interest in coming to Detroit. Personally, I'd guess neither wanted to come to Detroit.

The cold hard reality is that the team Yzerman inherited was so far away from competing that no move could have meaningfully altered the trajectory of this team up to this point.

Unless you were expecting Yzerman to turn water into wine everything up to now is shuffling of deck chairs on the Titanic.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

i sometimes can't tell if y'all are being intentionally obtuse or you really have no idea what other teams draft. there are plenty of high skill, high(er) risk guys every year that yzerman does not like drafting, in the 1st round and plenty beyond. i'll stick with just the 1st:

2024 - Trevor Connelly, Michael Hage, Liam Greentree instead of MBN
2023 - Benson (really wanted), Wood, Perrault (really wanted him), Sale instead of Danielson
2022 - Miroshnichenko, Yurov, Nazar, Savoie instead of Kasper

I'm not saying we should always be taking this kind of player (or you end up like buffalo), but you need some balance, and Yzerman has not been balanced in his time here. It's funny that the one player they targeted in the 1st round with really high upside and really high risk - ASP - is now our best prospect and the only potential elite/franchise non-NHL player we have in the system.

Many of those guys will bust, whereas MBN/Danielson/Kasper will at least be 3rd liners. But the question that I always ask, and I still haven't gotten a good response, is what is the point of drafting low end 2nd/high end 3rd liners in the 1st round?

You can find these players in FA every single year, without too much difficulty. Copp is a very good third liner. Compher is a good third liner. Rasmussen is a good third liner. Fischer is a good third liner. All these guys are not hard to find.

What is hard to find is the elite forwards that can drive play, and we should be taking a risk to get those players in the 1st round.

How would the future of this team look if we took at least one of Gabriel Perrault instead of Danielson or Miro instead of Kasper? I think much better, because those guys have true elite upside.

At some point draft position is not an excuse. Yzerman has to be held responsible if he's passing half a decade with the team looking worse than it did last year.

Two of the bigger reasons we are where we are is that: (1) the organization had very little center depth, (2) the Wings walked away with absolutely nothing from their first round draft picks during the end of the Holland era (Zadina, Cholowski, Svech, et al.).

We have been looking for a true number two center since 2016. Fee agency has yielded Copp (who is better at wing) and Compher... and the ghosts of Frans Nielsen and Stephen Weiss. You can always find small, skill-ish wingers in free agency, so why draft them? What you can't find is good, reasonably priced centers. I am all for drafting what you can't find in free agency: centers and right handed defensemen.

It is extremely foolish to think you can just "swing for the fences" and be A ok walking from the first with nothing. I appreciate that everyone is looking for "elite" talent. Sadly, the only place it is predicably found is the very, very top of the first round.

Our rebuild was not derailed by us taking Kasper over Savoie or Danielson over Benson. Your preferences in an organization with no good centers are really going to struggle.

 

[SirKillalot]

Let's run through a hypothetical parallel reality:

1. Instead of Copp Yzerman signs one of Trochek or Killorn, or Palat or Nyquist etc.

If we can add that Trocheck didn't want to sign in Detroit. Or more so he had other better options of places he wanted to sign, so that one wasn't realistic regardless.

 

[Winger98]

If we can add that Trocheck didn't want to sign in Detroit. Or more so he had other better options of places he wanted to sign, so that one wasn't realistic regardless.

and that the other three aren't centers.

 

[SirloinUB]

If we can add that Trocheck didn't want to sign in Detroit. Or more so he had other better options of places he wanted to sign, so that one wasn't realistic regardless.

100%. And I'd argue he would have been a worse option for this team based on the contract

and that the other three aren't centers.

Completely fair. My main intent was to demonstrate that it really didn't matter who was signed, the options available would not have meaningfully altered the path of this team.

 

[Winger98]

100%. And I'd argue he would have been a worse option for this team based on the contract



Completely fair. My main intent was to demonstrate that it really didn't matter who was signed, the options available would not have meaningfully altered the path of this team.

Pretty much agree. In the end, the goal always seemed to be to ice a team that wasn't an easy win for other teams while giving time and space to grow the kids. It'd be nice if some more deals fell into our lap that would have thrown the rebuild into fast forward but they didn't.