Where did Yzerman go wrong with the rebuild?

[Frk It]

Let's be real: guys like Athanasiou, Mantha, Nyquist and Bertuzzi are currently busy bouncing around the league. They aren't core pieces you build around. Holland's drafts were horrific, you just need to look at the results since 2005: Larkin and a bunch of misses with the occasionally useful NHL player. He didn't give his best scout his best draft picks, he kept giving his first rounders and most of his second rounders to his totally inept North American scouting department.

By contrast, Yzerman has given the vast majority of his best draft picks to Hakan Andersson. Here are the results:

• #1 D: Moritz Seider
• Scoring line forwards: Lucas Raymond, Michael Brandsegg-Nygaard
• Middle 6 center: Marco Kasper
• PP QB: Axel Sandin-Pelikka
• Top 6 D: Simon Edvinsson, Anton Johansson, Albert Johansson, William Wallinder.

With Ken Holland there was no end in sight to capped out teams with mediocre talent and being on the outside looking in at a spot in the playoffs. With Yzerman, the hard work has mostly been completed and it's just a matter of time until his draft picks fill the key spots in the lineup. The vast majority of those key pieces were drafted by a guy Ken Holland totally ignored.

It's night and day. Complain about Yzerman because we are currently in the 'messy middle' where we need to rely on journeymen until the prospects are ready for NHL play, but we are in much better shape than we were when Holland has us capped out and we had one of the worst prospect pools in the entire NHL.

The drafting under Holland was totally fine to good until Tyler Wright came in (the last 2 drafts).

Yzerman has been great with the top pick (it helps having higher picks) but the drafting from round 2 on has been pretty eh with the amount of picks we’ve had at our disposal.

 

[lidstromiscool]

You need to GO BACK and study the NHL draft history. You have unrealistic expectations.

If you get TWO players out of a draft, you had a good draft. If you get THREE players, you had a great draft. I think DRWs get three players out of 2019. And mind you, Yzerman just became GM just before the draft and didn't have all his personnel in place yet. Draper didn't even get the position of directer of amature scouting literally like 7-days before the 2019 draft.

Please be reasonable when studying the past.

The two NHL players from the draft quote came when Detroit was making the playoffs consistently. Now that we're in the middle of a rebuild, the bar is higher. Especially when picking in the top 10, having multiple 2nd round picks, and overall having almost double the selections of a normal draft. Even with that in mind, the 2019 and 2020 drafts will not have 2 NHL players (thats 23 total draft picks and the only NHL players we will have were #4 and #6 overall). 2021 should be a good draft. 2022 looks likely to have just 1 NHL player. Thats a disaster of a first 4 drafts for Yzerman & Draper.

 

[raymond23]

The two NHL players from the draft quote came when Detroit was making the playoffs consistently. Now that we're in the middle of a rebuild, the bar is higher. Especially when picking in the top 10, having multiple 2nd round picks, and overall having almost double the selections of a normal draft. Even with that in mind, the 2019 and 2020 drafts will not have 2 NHL players (thats 23 total draft picks and the only NHL players we will have were #4 and #6 overall). 2021 should be a good draft. 2022 looks likely to have just 1 NHL player. Thats a disaster of a first 4 drafts for Yzerman & Draper.

How can you say that about 2019 and 2020 when we still have Johansson, Wallinder, Tuomisto, Soderblom, Hanas, etc in the system?

Also what picks did we miss on around those guys? Faber and Nikishin in 2020 for sure... almost everyone else are still nobody prospects as well

 

[lilidk]

All legitimate HOF'ers.

Only 3 or 4

 

[Run the Jewels]

The drafting under Holland was totally fine to good until Tyler Wright came in (the last 2 drafts).

Yzerman has been great with the top pick (it helps having higher picks) but the drafting from round 2 on has been pretty eh with the amount of picks we’ve had at our disposal.

No, Holland's drafting out of NA in particular was always lackluster. The biggest difference is that Yzerman leans more heavily on Hakan for draft picks in the first two rounds.

2019: Seider, AlJo
2020: Ray, Wallinder
2021: Ed - the rest of the prime picks were all out of NA
2022: Kasper, Buchelnikov
2023: ASP - the rest of the prime picks were all out of NA
2024: MBN - the rest of the prime picks were all out of NA

So when Hakan gets 2+ picks in the first 2 rounds, they generally turn out to be prime prospects. Of all the guys drafted out of Europe in the first two rounds since Yzerman took over, only Neiderbach and Tuomisto are guys who aren't tracking to be quality NHL'ers and Tuomisto was a Wright guy.

Here are Holland's top 2 round draft picks out of NA. Guys who have played 500+ NHL games are in bold.

2018: Zadina, Veleno, McIsaac (Berggren the lone Euro looks to get a roster spot)
2017: Rasmussen (300 NHL games, bottom 6 forward)
2016: Cholo, Givani Smith (Hronek who will hit 500 was drafted out of Europe)
2015: Svechnikov
2014: Larkin (Holland's one home run hit out of NA)
2013: Mantha, Bertuzzi (both journeymen), Nastasiuk
2012: Frk
2011: Jurco, Ouellet, Sproul
2010: Sheahan, (Jarnkrok who will hit 700 was drafted out of Europe)
2009: Ferraro
2008: McCollum
2007: Brendan Smith
2006: Emmerton, Matthias
2005: Kindl, Abdelkader

This is what you describe as 'totally fine to good'? Rasmussen is the only guy since Larkin out of NA who has a shot at 500 NHL games played. That's 7 straight 2nd round or better draft picks who busted out of the biggest talent pool in the world.

Thankfully we have a GM who understands who his best scouts are and leans heavily on them. Our NA scouting has been truly awful for nearly 20 years.

 

[lidstromiscool]

How can you say that about 2019 and 2020 when we still have Johansson, Wallinder, Tuomisto, Soderblom, Hanas, etc in the system?

Also what picks did we miss on around those guys? Faber and Nikishin in 2020 for sure... almost everyone else are still nobody prospects as well

None of those players will be anything more than fringe NHLers. Tuomisto and Hanas aren't even NHL prospects anymore

 

[Frk It]

No, Holland's drafting out of NA in particular was always lackluster. The biggest difference is that Yzerman leans more heavily on Hakan for draft picks in the first two rounds.

2019: Seider, AlJo
2020: Ray, Wallinder
2021: Ed - the rest of the prime picks were all out of NA
2022: Kasper, Buchelnikov
2023: ASP - the rest of the prime picks were all out of NA
2024: MBN - the rest of the prime picks were all out of NA

So when Hakan gets 2+ picks in the first 2 rounds, they generally turn out to be prime prospects. Of all the guys drafted out of Europe in the first two rounds since Yzerman took over, only Neiderbach and Tuomisto are guys who aren't tracking to be quality NHL'ers and Tuomisto was a Wright guy.

Here are Holland's top 2 round draft picks out of NA. Guys who have played 500+ NHL games are in bold.

2018: Zadina, Veleno, McIsaac (Berggren the lone Euro looks to get a roster spot)
2017: Rasmussen (300 NHL games, bottom 6 forward)
2016: Cholo, Givani Smith (Hronek who will hit 500 was drafted out of Europe)
2015: Svechnikov
2014: Larkin (Holland's one home run hit out of NA)
2013: Mantha, Bertuzzi (both journeymen), Nastasiuk
2012: Frk
2011: Jurco, Ouellet, Sproul
2010: Sheahan, (Jarnkrok who will hit 700 was drafted out of Europe)
2009: Ferraro
2008: McCollum
2007: Brendan Smith
2006: Emmerton, Matthias
2005: Kindl, Abdelkader

This is what you describe as 'totally fine to good'? Rasmussen is the only guy since Larkin out of NA who has a shot at 500 NHL games played. That's 7 straight 2nd round or better draft picks who busted out of the biggest talent pool in the world.

Thankfully we have a GM who understands who his best scouts are and leans heavily on them. Our NA scouting has been truly awful for nearly 20 years.

I don’t know why you’re doing all this weird cherry-picking and leaving out a lot of context (we had no high picks under Holland until the last few years, didn’t even have a first some years), but yeah up until Tyler Wright got here I think the scouting/drafting was average or above average. I think the last few years it fell off and was pretty bad. I think the decision to hire Wright and also bring him to Edmonton was a poor one.

I think you’re trying pretty hard to knock holland down a peg and pump Yzerman up more than you should, and the truth lies somewhere in the middle with both.

Like you so painfully cherry picked this so you could not include Nyquist, Athanasiou, Tatar, Jensen, Hudler, and on and on

Just my .02….

 

[raymond23]

None of those players will be anything more than fringe NHLers. Tuomisto and Hanas aren't even NHL prospects anymore

To say that definitively about a 21 and 23 year old defenseman is something. Especially when they’re 2nd round picks with plus tools and have shown success in pro leagues. Don’t really know why you’re doing that

 

[Run the Jewels]

I don’t know why you’re doing all this weird cherry-picking and leaving out a lot of context (we had no high picks under Holland until the last few years, didn’t even have a first some years), but yeah up until Tyler Wright got here I think the scouting/drafting was average or above average. I think the last few years it fell off and was pretty bad. I think the decision to hire Wright and also bring him to Edmonton was a poor one.

I think you’re trying pretty hard to knock holland down a peg and pump Yzerman up more than you should, and the truth lies somewhere in the middle with both.

Like you so painfully cherry picked this so you could not include Nyquist, Athanasiou, Tatar, Jensen, Hudler, and on and on

Just my .02….

My last post on the topic: in my first reply I mentioned many of those guys. Do you truly think those guys you mentioned are core pieces you build around? If so, why are they bouncing around the league? Holland drafted one core player since 2005: Dylan Larkin. If you think that's a great use of draft capital well then OK I guess.

So real plain and simple:

1. Your 1st and 2nd round picks are where you have the best chance to rebuild.
2. Ken Holland leaned heavily on his NA scouting for his 1st and 2nd round picks.
3. Between 2005-2018, Holland had 29 first or second round picks. 23 of those picks (80%) were drafted out of NA. There wasn't a single year where the top draft pick was drafted out of Europe.
4. 10 of those 29 picks (including Rasmussen) will hit 500 NHL games (34%). Only one of them developed into a guy you could truly build around.
5. Steve Yzerman has been much more likely to draft out of Europe with his top picks.
6. Yzerman looks to have drafted a #1D, 2 scoring line wingers, 1 middle 6 center, a PP QB, and 6 NHL d-men with those picks.

Ken Holland had a glaring blind spot for his North American scouting team. He greatly overvalued a part of his organization that routinely underperformed. Steve Yzerman has not made the same mistake.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

My last post on the topic: in my first reply I mentioned many of those guys. Do you truly think those guys you mentioned are core pieces you build around? If so, why are they bouncing around the league? Holland drafted one core player since 2005: Dylan Larkin. If you think that's a great use of draft capital well then OK I guess.

So real plain and simple:

1. Your 1st and 2nd round picks are where you have the best chance to rebuild.
2. Ken Holland leaned heavily on his NA scouting for his 1st and 2nd round picks.
3. Between 2005-2018, Holland had 29 first or second round picks. 23 of those picks (80%) were drafted out of NA. There wasn't a single year where the top draft pick was drafted out of Europe.
4. 10 of those 29 picks (including Rasmussen) will hit 500 NHL games (34%). Only one of them developed into a guy you could truly build around.
5. Steve Yzerman has been much more likely to draft out of Europe with his top picks.
6. Yzerman looks to have drafted a #1D, 2 scoring line wingers, 1 middle 6 center, a PP QB, and 6 NHL d-men with those picks.

Ken Holland had a glaring blind spot for his North American scouting team. He greatly overvalued a part of his organization that routinely underperformed. Steve Yzerman has not made the same mistake.

I would advise against penciling in any of SYs draft picks until after they reach a specific NHL level...

 

[Run the Jewels]

I would advise against penciling in any of SYs draft picks until after they reach a specific NHL level...

What about Mo and Ray?

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

What about Mo and Ray?

What about them?

Both look good, great even, but they're not superstars until they are

 

[rbartnik]

Thankfully we have a GM who understands who his best scouts are and leans heavily on them. Our NA scouting has been truly awful for nearly 20 years.

This cherry-picking is particularly fun when you go review those previous drafts and realize that the next best options we missed on are primarily out of NA, or Finland where we don't really draft from.

Now go back and do this for Yzerman's time in Tampa where he took Kucherov, Vasilievsky, and spare parts at best.

 

[Pavels Dog]

None of those players will be anything more than fringe NHLers. Tuomisto and Hanas aren't even NHL prospects anymore

Your expectations are insane. Literally 0 NHL teams can live up to the expectation of multiple impact NHLers in every draft (and developing into that caliber of player in 3-4 years maximum).

 

[NickH8]

Idk what the hell is going on with this rage bait thread but I just find it interesting how some people think we're going to be the next Wild when we're in the middle of the pack with still one of the best prospect pools in the league. That's the key difference between us and Minnesota or Ottawa or St Louis. Yzerman isn't immune to criticism but anyone calling for his head has missed the point of all the moves he's been making.

 

[Run the Jewels]

Idk what the hell is going on with this rage bait thread but I just find it interesting how some people think we're going to be the next Wild when we're in the middle of the pack with still one of the best prospect pools in the league. That's the key difference between us and Minnesota or Ottawa or St Louis. Yzerman isn't immune to criticism but anyone calling for his head has missed the point of all the moves he's been making.

Oh don't you worry, the ones who were loudest hating on his draft picks, hating on him being patient, will be the loudest about how they never doubted him for a minute.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

Nobody should be calling for SYs resignation ..that's just nonsense...I think though it might be wise to wait for the prospects to achieve significant individual NHL success before we anoint them significant NHLers..

 

[ricky0034]

Nobody should be calling for SYs resignation ..that's just nonsense...I think though it might be wise to wait for the prospects to achieve significant individual NHL success before we anoint them significant NHLers..

sorry no middle ground allowed between "fire this man on the spot" and "Yzerman is great at drafting because the guy he drafted at 15th overall 2 weeks ago is already a scoring line forward"

pick a side!

 

[Run the Jewels]

he lost the lottery a few times then got bored and decided to take his ball and go home and try to force things with middling free agents right before a once a decade level draft

the Wings should bare minimum have Michkov right now but they don't and will never get a player of that level until they eventually blow things up and start over

Ah, so your take is that Yzerman went wrong with the rebuild when he wasn't able to draft...Matvei Michkov? Well that's certainly a take.

 

[norrisnick]

Ah, so your take is that Yzerman went wrong with the rebuild when he wasn't able to draft...Matvei Michkov? Well that's certainly a take.

Some are convinced that if Michkov busts he'd still be better than last season's Raymond. Basically a Venn diagram with no overlap. So missing out is unforgivable.

 

[ricky0034]

Ah, so your take is that Yzerman went wrong with the rebuild when he wasn't able to draft...Matvei Michkov? Well that's certainly a take.

drafting the future superstar that should have been sitting on a silver platter with no lottery luck required for the Wings to draft would be preferable to having guys like Copp and Chiarot yes

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

Once we get Copp, Petry, Husso,Hull and Chiarots contracts off the books and use that money for a high impact player or two in their prime coupled with our prospects being regular contributors we will have a dangerous team.
We need Cossa or Augustine to be as advertised too. I'd say we are 2-3 years from actually being a cup contender if everything works out perfectly.

 

[Frk It]

drafting the future superstar that should have been sitting on a silver platter with no lottery luck required for the Wings to draft would be preferable to having guys like Copp and Chiarot yes

Yzerman clearly should have known these things that we know now, such as:

1) Michkov would slide to #7
2) Michkov would be able to get out of his KHL contract several years early

Plus who is to say they wouldn’t have passed on him like a handful of other teams did?

Such a silly hindsight-based thing to be mad at.

 

[norrisnick]

Yzerman clearly should have known these things that we know now, such as:

1) Michkov would slide to #7
2) Michkov would be able to get out of his KHL contract several years early

Plus who is to say they wouldn’t have passed on him like a handful of other teams did?

Such a silly hindsight-based thing to be mad at.

Having Michkov fall to 7 allows the "both sides of the mouth" argument of holding the opposing opinions that Copp/Chiarot and co. were awful signings because they don't help the team in any meaningful way, but also good enough to maybe account for 6 points in the standings needed to slip far enough in the standings to be there to... ultimately pass on him anyway because given a choice between tiny offense only winger and two-way workhorse center we all know who Yzerman would pick.

 

[ricky0034]

Yzerman clearly should have known these things that we know now, such as:

1) Michkov would slide to #7

that he would fall to specifically 7th? obviously not

that he would fall to say 4th or 5th and possibly later? very predictable

2) Michkov would be able to get out of his KHL contract several years early

so? having waiting an extra couple years to get your superstar to come over to your shitty team is like complaining about winning the lottery but having to wait a few months to claim the money

Plus who is to say they wouldn’t have passed on him like a handful of other teams did?

saying something wasn't a mistake because a different mistake could have happened later isn't an actual argument