When will we see the first $20m a year player in the NHL?

[TD Charlie]

It’s nobody that we know yet.

 

[ES]

Probably current ELC core in their late 20s.

 

[LemonSauceD]

I’m betting on Celebrini/DuPont

 

[cupface52]

I agree and that's why players in the NHL won't make as much as NFL players because the NHL doesn't generate as much money. I was pointing out that CFL players make similar to the average person, which seems fair and the other leagues generate more money by charging too much. Think about it how many NHL games can most afford to go to per year? I go every 2 or 3 years, but CFL games I go 4 or 5 per year.

CFL players make that much because not many people are willing to spend that much to watch games. They also don't have that high value national broadcast contract. You think if people were willing to spend $200-$2000 to go watch CFL games, they wouldn't charge that per ticket? Of course they would, and in turn, CFL players would make more money.

It's basic supply and demand, it's not "charging too much", teams have a limited number of tickets to sell per year. At current prices, you can afford to go every 2-3 years, if tickets were 10-30$ a piece, you'd be lucky if you managed to go every 5 years(Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver) because A LOT more people would be trying to get those tickets.

 

[JKG33]

Whenever Matthews is due for another contract

 

[StreetHawk]

McDavid is gonna be a UFA fairly soon, and he would be the obvious choice. Thoughts?

Unless McDavid waits until closer to 2026 to sign, going to wait a while for someone else to get there. Cap needs to be $100 mill. McDavid is eligible to sign in the summer but the cap is only going to be at least $92.5 mill but likely closer to $95 mill. So, he'd max out at $19 mill if he signed in the summer.

Matthews deal goes until he is what like 32? Outside shot of jumping McDavid as that's close to the end of his prime years. If he gets a really long term deal, I don't see him getting $20 mill AAV.

Has to be someone else.

 

[hamzarocks]

Landon Dupoint if he lives up to his hype his 2030 summer deal could be nearing 20M

 

[BleedBlue14]

I agree and that's why players in the NHL won't make as much as NFL players because the NHL doesn't generate as much money. I was pointing out that CFL players make similar to the average person, which seems fair and the other leagues generate more money by charging too much. Think about it how many NHL games can most afford to go to per year? I go every 2 or 3 years, but CFL games I go 4 or 5 per year.

I can't wait to get my tickets to see the Friday midday late week matchup between Jim the accountant and John the accountant on who can file the most returns before happy hour at 3PM at the local Chilis.

I'm only going to speak to the experience in the St. Louis area as that's all i'm familiar with. But you can generally get upper level tickets for $20-30. Now it's your choice if you want to buy the $10 beers or not sure. But in all reality they are paid as much as they are due to the draw from the consumer.

If you want to look at why the costs are so high, maybe look at how profitable alot of the franchises in general are.

Professional athletes don't have normal jobs, nor are they normal employees. They are the top .01% of the total pool and most of the time unlike many 9-5s or other professions, they can't shut off after their work day is over. If they do they get left behind.

 

[ijuka]

Depends on how the cap develops, and no one can know this in advance.

Landon Dupoint if he lives up to his hype his 2030 summer deal could be nearing 20M

RFA years? Doubtful.

 

[GordonGraham]

20M salary or cap hit cause we are not even at 15m cap hit yet

 

[hamzarocks]

Depends on how the cap develops, and no one can know this in advance.


RFA years? Doubtful.

His post RFA years

Mcdavid was a pure generational player of his ELC and played D+1 to D+3 years in the NHL as a top 5, top 3, and top 1 player in the league.

If dupoint is top 15, top 10, top 5 in his 3 ELC years then his post ELC deal could get 18% of the cap which by 2030 should be 110M at least

Ofcourse minimal chance Dupoint is that good at the NHL level. After seeing Bedard I dont buy into generational prospects until they dominate the NHL as D+1 players

 

[Leafs87]

Probably went the cap reaches ~120 and there’s a superstar to sign. Doubtful a team goes that deep into the cap before then IMO

 

[rynryn]

Kaprizov

I really wonder what he's going to demand and at what number Leipold will balk after coming out and saying whatever he wants. Not a matter of "would your rather have ______" because these guys aren't available. It's more like "would you rather overpay him or not have a superstar". Because we aren't going to see another one of those for a while unless Yurov lives up to his performance thusfar.

 

[Hallonbroder]

Isn’t Marner up for a new contract? Toronto media and fans wants to give him the world, so I wouldn’t be surprised if they did it

 

[Whoot Whoot]

Post Betmann for sure

 

[Bender]

Yelnick Mcwawa in 2030

 

[GrumpyKoala]

Nov 17 2027

Get him alive!!!!

 

[Boonk]

I agree and that's why players in the NHL won't make as much as NFL players because the NHL doesn't generate as much money. I was pointing out that CFL players make similar to the average person, which seems fair and the other leagues generate more money by charging too much. Think about it how many NHL games can most afford to go to per year? I go every 2 or 3 years, but CFL games I go 4 or 5 per year.

The CFL is not the best football league nor has the best football talent and doesnt make similar money for a reason. The football is just not good in comparison to the NFL and the fans know it, thats why they spend their money to watch and support the NFL and not CFL. You dont make more money as a sports league by enslaving your players and trimming their capital from them lmfao. Its just a ridiculous comparison on your part.

 

[elmaco]

Hopefully never, the players for all sports deserve to be paid well, but right now the only sport that pays properly is the CFL where most make between 50 to 100 thousand per year, with the stars making 500 thousand to 1 million per year.

Players are paid based on the value they bring to their employer, so not a single penny of it is not earned.

 

[Menzinger]

Can you even build a winning roster paying even someone as great as McDavid 20m AAV?

Depends on how high the cap is. The cap will be well over 100 mil in just a few years

 

[Gabriel426]

When the owners agree to Franchise Player exception.

Or the real next McDavid

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

In 2014, the cap was 69 (nice) million

In 2024 the cap was 81 million.

Ignoring the pandemic to keep this simple, this is an increase of ~17% over 10 years.

In 2014, the highest cap hit was Alexander Ovechkin, at 9.5 mil. 9.5/69 =13.8% of the cap

In 2024, the highest cap hit was Auston Matthews, at 13.5 mil. 13.5/81=17.7%

(16.7-13.8)/2=1.5, so split the difference that's 15.3%.

To find the cap ceiling x in a league where 15.3% of the cap hit is 20 mil, we use the equation x=20/.153, which =~130 mil.

When will the league hit a cap ceiling of 130 mil if the cap ceiling increases at 17.4% per decade, ie 1.74% per year? 69 + (69*.0174*t)=81

69(1+.0174t)=81
1+.0174t=81/69
.0174t=1.174-1
.0174t=.174
t=10

Using the current cap ceiling of 81 and the current year of 2024, we then get
130= 81(1+.0174t)
130/81=1.6
1.6=.0174t+1
.6=.0174t
t= .625/.0174
t=34.5, ie 35 years

The answer is 2059

Unfortunately for you, I realized while doing this that we can't use simple interest formula, instead we have to use the compound interest formula.

The formula for this is A=P(1+r/n)^nt

First, calculate the interest rate, we use (((81/69)^1/10)-1)*100=1.62%

The final value is still 130 mil, starting value is 81 mil.

n is the number of times compounded per period, This is compounded annual, so we use 1
t is the number of periods. This is hockey so the answer is 3. Just kidding, it's what we want to find out.

130=81(1+.0162)^t
130/81=1.0162^t
1.605=1.0162^t
log1.605=tlog1.0162
t=log1.605/log1.0162
t=29.44= 30 years

So the correct answer is 2054

 

[1989]

But maybe his agent says we could 3 years, then re-up for 8 years at an older age.

Good thing you're not an agent. With age comes diminishing ability and the ever-present chance of injury that could derail any earning potential, plus the fact that money now is literally worth more than money later.

 

[BrockLobster]

McDavid is gonna be a UFA fairly soon, and he would be the obvious choice. Thoughts?

Thats the answer

In 2014, the cap was 69 (nice) million

In 2024 the cap was 81 million.

Ignoring the pandemic to keep this simple, this is an increase of ~17% over 10 years.

In 2014, the highest cap hit was Alexander Ovechkin, at 9.5 mil. 9.5/69 =13.8% of the cap

In 2024, the highest cap hit was Auston Matthews, at 13.5 mil. 13.5/81=17.7%

(16.7-13.8)/2=1.5, so split the difference that's 15.3%.

To find the cap ceiling x in a league where 15.3% of the cap hit is 20 mil, we use the equation x=20/.153, which =~130 mil.

When will the league hit a cap ceiling of 130 mil if the cap ceiling increases at 17.4% per decade, ie 1.74% per year? 69 + (69*.0174*t)=81

69(1+.0174t)=81
1+.0174t=81/69
.0174t=1.174-1
.0174t=.174
t=10

Using the current cap ceiling of 81 and the current year of 2024, we then get
130= 81(1+.0174t)
130/81=1.6
1.6=.0174t+1
.6=.0174t
t= .625/.0174
t=34.5, ie 35 years

The answer is 2059

Unfortunately for you, I realized while doing this that we can't use simple interest formula, instead we have to use the compound interest formula.

The formula for this is A=P(1+r/n)^nt

First, calculate the interest rate, we use (((81/69)^1/10)-1)*100=1.62%

The final value is still 130 mil, starting value is 81 mil.

n is the number of times compounded per period, This is compounded annual, so we use 1
t is the number of periods. This is hockey so the answer is 3. Just kidding, it's what we want to find out.

130=81(1+.0162)^t
130/81=1.0162^t
1.605=1.0162^t
log1.605=tlog1.0162
t=log1.605/log1.0162
t=29.44= 30 years

So the correct answer is 2054

Settle down bro

 

[Breakers]

Good thing you're not an agent. With age comes diminishing ability and the ever-present chance of injury that could derail any earning potential, plus the fact that money now is literally worth more than money later.

Either are you
And matthews is currently using that strategy to $200 million in career earnings.

By his agents advice