When does the Yzerplan start getting criticized?

[Machinehead]

I don't mean any disrespect to the Lightning. All that matters is that you win, not how you build the team.

That being said, looking back, they had a couple of huge lottery picks and a disproportionate amount of late picks become super impact players.

Full credit to the players, but I'm not sure how much of that isn't luck from the perspective of the GM, and I certainly don't think it's repeatable.

The job of the front office is to manage the assets you have. I think Tampa did that, because they had phenomenal deadlines before both Cup wins. But mostly, the assets you end up with is happenstance. It depends on the players and who they end up being.

And here's the thing: Yzerman was gone by those deadlines.

 

[Crunchy]

Edmonton was one game away from winning a Stanley Cup. It’s time to stop citing them as an example of a failed rebuild. If anything they’re proof that if you tank for a while and you get guys that aren’t good enough, you may as well keep tanking (even if it’s a new gm or two by the end of it)… as unglamorous and lack of style points as that may be. Had they said “ok that didn’t work” and Mid’d out to miss on getting Draisaitl and McDavid, they’d be materially worse off today. It also really shows how franchise gamebreaking talent can overcome a lot of executive level mistakes.

Great example of the lack of integrity in your argument. Edmonton went 10 straight seasons missing the playoffs and 12 of 13, ultimately taking 18 totals seasons to get back to and subsequently lose the SCF.

You consider this a successful rebuild example?

 

[TheDoldrums]

Comparing Seider to Tyler Myers is a really REALLY bad take. Seider thus far is tracking much closer to Victor Hedman's career start. Not that hard to look up comparables and stats of how players started, and Seider actually has more pts than Hedman had at the start of his career.

Of course Seider has more points, Hedman's career started off very slowly. That's why it's a nonsensical comparison. Hedman was a very slow starter who kept making consistently obvious big improvements until he hit his prime. Seider on the other hand started off very well and it's unclear how much he's actually improved if at all from his rookie year. He's tracking closer to Ivan Provorov than Hedman. Another guy that everyone assumed would just keep improving because he was young but it never happened.

 

[qc14]

Comparing Seider to Tyler Myers is a really REALLY bad take. Seider thus far is tracking much closer to Victor Hedman's career start. Not that hard to look up comparables and stats of how players started, and Seider actually has more pts than Hedman had at the start of his career. He is also far superior defensively to Myers.

None of the contracts they have signed stop Detroit from doing anything in the next 2-3 years. Cap is going up and the worst signing in Copp is only overpaid by about a mil. I know he is no Dubois, though so!

Hedman started out extremely slow but broke through in his age 23 year after a couple seasons. Seider (like Myers) had a truly amazing rookie year and won the Calder, but (also like Myers) has taken significant strides back in the two years since.

As for the cap, Yzerman had to attach a second to move Walman (Yzerman signing) and give away Fabbri for free (Yzerman signing) in order to sign Raymond and Seider this summer. Add that to $3.4M Holl (Yzerman signing) and $2M Gustafsson (Yzerman signing) alternating in the press box and $3.6M Husso (Yzerman signing) playing in Grand Rapids. They're capped out this year, trying to compete this year, and there are a lot of extremely bad contracts Yzerman himself has signed hindering them from competing this year.

 

[norrisnick]

So question to the critics. Say you get your wish and Yzerman gets shit canned. New GM comes in and does what? Trade some 20yos for some "help now" 30yos? Trade picks for rentals. Wings get in. Crushed by Florida anyway. Is the franchise better off?

Hedman started out extremely slow but broke through in his age 23 year after a couple seasons. Seider (like Myers) had a truly amazing rookie year and won the Calder, but (also like Myers) has taken significant strides back in the two years since.

As for the cap, Yzerman had to attach a second to move Walman (Yzerman signing) and give away Fabbri for free (Yzerman signing) in order to sign Raymond and Seider this summer. Add that to $3.4M Holl (Yzerman signing) and $2M Gustafsson (Yzerman signing) alternating in the press box and $3.6M Husso (Yzerman signing) playing in Grand Rapids. They're capped out this year, trying to compete this year, and there are a lot of extremely bad contracts Yzerman himself has signed hindering them from competing this year.

They really aren't.

 

[Crunchy]

Of course Seider has more points, Hedman's career started off very slowly. That's why it's a nonsensical comparison. Hedman was a very slow starter who kept making consistently obvious big improvements until he hit his prime. Seider on the other hand started off very well and it's unclear how much he's actually improved if at all from his rookie year. He's tracking closer to Ivan Provorov than Hedman. Another guy that everyone assumed would just keep improving because he was young but it never happened.

Or Seider is "just" Pietrangelo and Edvinsson can be Hedman.

 

[Dempsey]

Great example of the lack of integrity in your argument. Edmonton went 10 straight seasons missing the playoffs and 12 of 13, ultimately taking 18 totals seasons to get back to and subsequently lose the SCF.

You consider this a successful rebuild example?

He's right though. It took 18 years but yes they absolutely pulled out of it and ended the rebuild while being a contender. No argument that it took way longer than it should have obviously.

 

[Bleedred]

Lalonde is definitely the scorching hot favorite for first head coach fired this year.

 

[Crunchy]

He's right though. It took 18 years but yes they absolutely pulled out of it and ended the rebuild while being a contender. No argument that it took way longer than it should have obviously.

Actually they ended the rebuild while being 1st/2nd round playoff fodder. Everyone at year 8 at the rebuild was screaming at the top of their lungs about the Oilers underperforming.

I'd say the Oilers can be considered ultimately successful because they landed McDavid and Draisaitl, two future HOFers with one being in the conversation for the best that ever played. BUT the point is that calling Detroit a failure of a rebuild because they are at year 8 (year 5 of Yzerman) and then turning around and saying a rebuild that took 10 years to even make the playoffs (while missing 12/13) is disingenuous.

 

[Fatass]

Detroits best bet is in the mould of what LA did when they won their cups. Really gritty 2-way play with a strong goalie and D. Time will tell if they can pull that off. Won't be easy thats for sure.

Would really need Kasper, Danielson and then people like Seider and Edvinsson to continue to hit new heights.

Who are Detroit’s Doughty and Kopitar?

 

[WarriorofTime]

Great example of the lack of integrity in your argument. Edmonton went 10 straight seasons missing the playoffs and 12 of 13, ultimately taking 18 totals seasons to get back to and subsequently lose the SCF.

You consider this a successful rebuild example?

"Lack of integrity", wtf are you talking about.

Fact is Edmonton just kinda kept tanking, whether accidentally or on purpose and then eventually they got Draisaitl, McDavid and it all turned on, because that's the difference gamebreaking talent makes.

The Wings are unlikely to "re-tank" as their mid prospects will likely replace their mid vets without a material dropoff. Perhaps the combo of aging out vets, prospects coming in and cap space can lead to a season or two of competitive play where they maybe win a round. More than that though will likely be tough without some deux ex machina superstar or two falling into their lap.

Like don't get me wrong, if let's say Dmitri Buchelnikov is the next Nikita Kucherov then yeah, the entire calculus changes, so let's check, at same age Kucherov was playing 2nd line and a monster on a per minute basis ending 27th in league wide scoring on a team that made it to the finals. Buchelnikov is doing pretty well in the KHL, not quite the same, so probably not him, but yeah that's the idea, if you get my drift. Maybe someone else emerges that nobody is expecting. But you can say that for any team..

 

[qc14]

So question to the critics. Say you get your wish and Yzerman gets shit canned. New GM comes in and does what? Trade some 20yos for some "help now" 30yos? Trade picks for rentals. Wings get in. Crushed by Florida anyway. Is the franchise better off?


They really aren't.

A new GM probably wouldn't have a new strategic vision but could probably be better tactically at all of the things that a GM does -- starting by maybe signing good players in UFA to reasonable contracts instead of bad ones to bad contracts!

I also don't see how a team that signs Kane and Tarasenko to a combined $10m in the offseason is doing anything other than trying to compete this year.

 

[Dempsey]

Actually they ended the rebuild while being 1st/2nd round playoff fodder. Everyone at year 8 at the rebuild was screaming at the top of their lungs about the Oilers underperforming.

I'd say the Oilers can be considered ultimately successful because they landed McDavid and Draisaitl, two future HOFers with one being in the conversation for the best that ever played. BUT the point is that calling Detroit a failure of a rebuild because they are at year 8 (year 5 of Yzerman) and then turning around and saying a rebuild that took 10 years to even make the playoffs (while missing 12/13) is disingenuous.

Fair enough. If Edmonton's 18-year rebuild counts then Oilers fans should be more patient when other teams take 8 years. It's unreasonable to assume that Yzerman lands a young superstar in the next couple of years who will pull them out of this to contender status though. After a long rebuild you don't want to just get to a Minnesota Wild level and stay there though, which is what I think a lot of people in this thread see Detroit doing in the coming years.

 

[norrisnick]

A new GM probably wouldn't have a new strategic vision but could probably be better tactically at all of the things that a GM does -- starting by maybe signing good players in UFA to reasonable contracts instead of bad ones to bad contracts!

I also don't see how a team that signs Kane and Tarasenko to a combined $10m in the offseason is doing anything other than trying to compete this year.

Because it's the same team that signed all the aforementioned contracts.

You can't say this team is dishing out a bunch of money to filler players and then argue they are trying to compete.

There are five 1st round picks in the wings. A team trying to compete would have the best of them up and the others traded for pieces that can contribute now. Yzerman is killing time. Time he knows he has.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

Or Seider is "just" Pietrangelo and Edvinsson can be Hedman.

Lmao right.

 

[Spring in Fialta]

"Lack of integrity", wtf are you talking about.

Fact is Edmonton just kinda kept tanking, whether accidentally or on purpose and then eventually they got Draisaitl, McDavid and it all turned on, because that's the difference gamebreaking talent makes.

The Wings are unlikely to "re-tank" as their mid prospects will likely replace their mid vets without a material dropoff. Perhaps the combo of aging out vets, prospects coming in and cap space can lead to a season or two of competitive play where they maybe win a round. More than that though will likely be tough without some deux ex machina superstar or two falling into their lap.

Like don't get me wrong, if let's say Dmitri Buchelnikov is the next Nikita Kucherov then yeah, the entire calculus changes, so let's check, at same age Kucherov was playing 2nd line and a monster on a per minute basis ending 27th in league wide scoring on a team that made it to the finals. Buchelnikov is doing pretty well in the KHL, not quite the same, so probably not him, but yeah that's the idea, if you get my drift. Maybe someone else emerges that nobody is expecting. But you can say that for any team..

The problem is that Edmonton didn't 'turn on' once they got McDrai. They kept losing for years after that.

I agree with the idea that pointing at Edmonton as a successful rebuild is a bit of a joke. It took them years to do anything of significance after getting a top-5 all-time player and other good pieces. They're good now but by that logic, any team who ever gets bad and ever gets better has a 'succesful rebuild' which makes the entire term meaningless.

 

[Crunchy]

"Lack of integrity", wtf are you talking about.

Fact is Edmonton just kinda kept tanking, whether accidentally or on purpose and then eventually they got Draisaitl, McDavid and it all turned on, because that's the difference gamebreaking talent makes.

The Wings are unlikely to "re-tank" as their mid prospects will likely replace their mid vets without a material dropoff. Perhaps the combo of aging out vets, prospects coming in and cap space can lead to a season or two of competitive play where they maybe win a round. More than that though will likely be tough without some deux ex machina superstar or two falling into their lap.

Like don't get me wrong, if let's say Dmitri Buchelnikov is the next Nikita Kucherov then yeah, the entire calculus changes, so let's check, at same age Kucherov was playing 2nd line and a monster on a per minute basis ending 27th in league wide scoring on a team that made it to the finals. Buchelnikov is doing pretty well in the KHL, not quite the same, so probably not him, but yeah that's the idea, if you get my drift. Maybe someone else emerges that nobody is expecting. But you can say that for any team..

Idk you have posts scattered throughout this thread going after the DRW rebuild and then turn around and point to the never ending Oilers rebuild as your shining example.... Feels disingenuous or laden in hindsight no?

Fair enough. If Edmonton's 18-year rebuild counts then Oilers fans should be more patient when other teams take 8 years. It's unreasonable to assume that Yzerman lands a young superstar in the next couple of years who will pull them out of this to contender status though. After a long rebuild you don't want to just get to a Minnesota Wild level and stay there though, which is what I think a lot of people in this thread see Detroit doing in the coming years.

This is a fair and direct argument. And ultimately sounds about what the much longer narratives from @WarriorofTime boils down to as well.

Is the existing prospect pool / young core capable of the turning the wings into a contender? A lot hinges on Seider and Edvinsson becoming large, physical, ice tilting #1Ds.

It's an extremely deep prospect pool headlined by Euro players and Dmen, which because of the natural NA bias of NA media coverage and the program's over-ripening development tactic, is undervalued. Will some of the 1st/2nd deepest prospect pool pan out? We'll see, but they have plenty of kicks at the can and personally I am fairly optimistic.

 

[RedWingzz]

I mean, not all Wings fans are YZERPLANNERS and Yzerman fanboys who worship everything he does. He was awesome as a player, and we have those memories, but some Wings fans have already been criticizing the Yzerplan.

We need results now, yet have started the season like it's 2020 all over again. The Wings have drafted some nice players, but Yzerman refuses to give them roster spots, and every offseason signs a new crop of "stopgap" vets who don't do anything for the team.

More and more Wings fans are starting to get impatient. The team D is abysmal...like realistically how many of the Wings 8 rostered D are actually NHL quality players? Seider obviously is a stud but after him we have a bunch of depth guys and garbage. Petry is awful, Gustafsson is worse. Holl is brutal. Chiarot is overpaid, and is being forced to play a role he's not suited for. Maatta is a #6 on a good team. Edvinsson will be a stud, but they refused to let him learn in the NHL last year, so he's making some rookie mistakes. His "rookie-mistake" learning and adjusting season should have been last year, but Yzerman refused to call him up. Johansson looks fine, but keeps getting scratched in favour of these other plugs.

 

[Peasy]

Who are Detroit’s Doughty and Kopitar?

Exactly, they would need seider and then one of kasper/Danielson to hit well above their projections. (which I wouldn't bet on)

 

[Crunchy]

Lmao right.

A bit tongue in cheek, but kind of is what Detroit ultimately needs to make themselves a contender.

I would also argue Seider might already be on the Pietrangelo track and would be curious if/why you or others disagree.

 

[Game suspension]

Thinking that Compher is a second line center and paying him $5 mil x 5 is all on Yzerman.

 

[norrisnick]

Thinking that Compher is a second line center and paying him $5 mil x 5 is all on Yzerman.

$5M is 3C pay.

 

[WarriorofTime]

They're good now but by that logic, any team who ever gets bad and ever gets better has a 'succesful rebuild' which makes the entire term meaningless.

wtf do you think a "successful rebuild" is? This is not about some cult of personality, "this exec over there, he's a genius!"

Idk you have posts scattered throughout this thread going after the DRW rebuild and then turn around and point to the never ending Oilers rebuild as your shining example.... Feels disingenuous or laden in hindsight no?

Considering I specifically addressed that it was "unglamorous" and "lack of style points", how about we don't make stuff up in terms of "shining example".

All Edmonton does is highlight again the importance of franchise gamebreaking talent because a multitude of exec level mistakes (again, not a "shining light") can be overcome when you have a McDavid cheat code.

That's just this whole thing works.

 

[qc14]

Because it's the same team that signed all the aforementioned contracts.

You can't say this team is dishing out a bunch of money to filler players and then argue they are trying to compete.

There are five 1st round picks in the wings. A team trying to compete would have the best of them up and the others traded for pieces that can contribute now. Yzerman is killing time. Time he knows he has.

Last year and this year they have been trying to compete for a playoff spot. They have tried to do this by bringing in veteran players in UFA and trades without sending away any premium future assets (this is a strategy I largely agree with and think they should pursue!). However, the vast majority of these players they have brought in have been bad. DeBrincat and Kane have been the only hits and there have been a pretty staggering amount of misses up next to them. I don't think it's unreasonable to say a different GM could have pursued the same strategy but made much better pro scouting decisions and ended up with a better team because of it.

It's the same with the drafting. Yes, most prospect writers have their system as at worst top 10 in the league. I'd say that's mostly due to the volume of picks they've had, not the overwhelming success that Yzerman's regime has had. They've had 13 (!!!) second round picks since he's taken over and they've played a combined total of 2 NHL games. Of their 3rd round and onwards picks, only Soderblom has played any amount of NHL games. The strategy of accumulating a lot of high picks was good, but to me those picks haven't been executed particularly well so far.

 

[KingsFan7824]

You can put a team in a position to win, but ultimately there's probably a dozen things that have to slightly tip your way to get the actual Cup. Look at last year's winner. You're not supposed to be able to win with a 35 year old goalie taking up $10m on the cap. There's no winning manual that says, your best defenseman can be a waiver wire pickup. He can be, but nobody would say that's a viable option. If Tkachuk wants to stay in Calgary, and/or Huberdeau doesn't have 100+pts at the same time, does Calgary make that trade? The Flames would've more than happy to keep the younger and better player, and they're certainly not taking a 70pt Huberdeau one year from UFA status if they wanted to trade Tkachuk.