Speculation: When Does Bruno Get The Boot?

[Kat Predator]

Lalonde makes another coach fired before Bruno (though that timing is brutal)

 

[Roman Yoshi]

I think our little run right before Christmas all but guarantees Bruno stays

 

[glenngineer]

It's funny that Bruno is still the coach. The words from Trotz were, let's see where we're at around Christmas.

The problem I have with this is he's looking at recency bias, the last 5 games of overall good play versus the body of work. He's basing his judgment on the team and the coach on the smaller data set, then the larger one given to him. He did the same thing with the 18-game stretch last year to make moves for a playoff run as opposed to seeing the flaws in the team. He's also made decisions on who to re-sign, who to let go, who to pick up as a free agent and so on.

Best example I could give is investing in the stock market in September, it continually goes down and instead of cutting losses and getting a new broker, you continue on with them because you've had recent success but you're still in a hole "hoping" to get out of it. And maybe this isn't the best example as investing is a long-term strategy but this is what I feel is going on. Maybe replace the stock market with gambling and it makes more sense.

 

[101st_fan]

Trotz isn't moving on from Bruno unless the bottom completely falls out and we end up far behind SJ and CHI.

 

[glenngineer]

Trotz isn't moving on from Bruno unless the bottom completely falls out and we end up far behind SJ and CHI.

At that point, why move on? Haha.

 

[101st_fan]

At that point, why move on? Haha.

It will take that level of drop to convince Trotz that it isn't growing pains or time for the tweaks(Fabbro, Carrier, Tomasino gone) to work out. He's committed to Bruno.

 

[glenngineer]

It will take that level of drop to convince Trotz that it isn't growing pains or time for the tweaks(Fabbro, Carrier, Tomasino gone) to work out. He's committed to Bruno.

Trotz should be committed.

 

[Kat Predator]

It's funny that Bruno is still the coach. The words from Trotz were, let's see where we're at around Christmas.

The problem I have with this is he's looking at recency bias, the last 5 games of overall good play versus the body of work. He's basing his judgment on the team and the coach on the smaller data set, then the larger one given to him. He did the same thing with the 18-game stretch last year to make moves for a playoff run as opposed to seeing the flaws in the team. He's also made decisions on who to re-sign, who to let go, who to pick up as a free agent and so on.

Best example I could give is investing in the stock market in September, it continually goes down and instead of cutting losses and getting a new broker, you continue on with them because you've had recent success but you're still in a hole "hoping" to get out of it. And maybe this isn't the best example as investing is a long-term strategy but this is what I feel is going on. Maybe replace the stock market with gambling and it makes more sense.

I'd say Trotz is viewing it as a coach and not a GM. A coach should always be looking at things as to how to improve the current situation and win the next game. Carpe diem. Job-life expectancy is very short, so a coach thinking about 4 or 5 years down the road is almost guaranteed not to be around.

A GM should have his focus on the future of the franchise as a whole. What does the roster and cap look like 4 or 5 years down the road is what he should be thinking about. What direction does he see the NHL going and how can he position the team to be competitive in the next window. Players will come and go. A GM is accountable to the business, the product, as a whole.

For a GM, the roster, especially the core, is basically set in stone during the season. He can maybe buy and sell some pieces here and there, but the construction of the team was decided long ago. About the only meaningful lever he has during the season (besides making sure the potholes are filled in the parking lot) is to determine if the coaches are getting the best overall play out of the roster possible. Nearly half way through the season, there is more than enough data to make that evaluation.

Trotz suggested he was looking for a little bounce in the standings going into Xmas, and, well, he got it in the shape of a few wins. I do think Trotz seems smitten with Brunette's theories as to "next generation hockey" and he's not likely to come off that. To do so would be an admission that he made a big mistake. Of course, we've discussed why these Bruno theories aren't working already in this thread...

 

[glenngineer]

I'd say Trotz is viewing it as a coach and not a GM. A coach should always be looking at things as to how to improve the current situation and win the next game. Carpe diem. Job-life expectancy is very short, so a coach thinking about 4 or 5 years down the road is almost guaranteed not to be around.

A GM should have his focus on the future of the franchise as a whole. What does the roster and cap look like 4 or 5 years down the road is what he should be thinking about. What direction does he see the NHL going and how can he position the team to be competitive in the next window. Players will come and go. A GM is accountable to the business, the product, as a whole.

For a GM, the roster, especially the core, is basically set in stone during the season. He can maybe buy and sell some pieces here and there, but the construction of the team was decided long ago. About the only meaningful lever he has during the season (besides making sure the potholes are filled in the parking lot) is to determine if the coaches are getting the best overall play out of the roster possible. Nearly half way through the season, there is more than enough data to make that evaluation.

Trotz suggested he was looking for a little bounce in the standings going into Xmas, and, well, he got it in the shape of a few wins. I do think Trotz seems smitten with Brunette's theories as to "next generation hockey" and he's not likely to come off that. To do so would be an admission that he made a big mistake. Of course, we've discussed why these Bruno theories aren't working already in this thread...

My problem is 3-1-1 doesn’t absolve the 0-5-3 before it, especially since that was the third losing streak of 5 games or more this year.

 

[Kat Predator]

My problem is 3-1-1 doesn’t absolve the 0-5-3 before it, especially since that was the third losing streak of 5 games or more this year.

100%.

To use your investment analogy, you're looking at overall trend lines and moving averages. If those are all negative but there is a week that is a positive blip, the smart investor should sell high and move on to something with a net positive trend line. Throwing more money in based on the blip is, well, great for the other guy, the smart investor who wants to sell.

 

[PredsV82]

just a reminder...

 

[101st_fan]

Trotz should be committed.

He is ….. to Bruno. A bromance for all times.

 

[originalpredfan]

IMHO both Trotz and Bruno are the problem and the focus should be on Trotz and his questionable personnel decisions. I have no confidence that going forward he can make any decision to benefit this team.

 

[hido]

It’s really depressing to know that if they get only one win on the road trip Bruno is still gonna keep his job. I’m at the acceptance stage.

 

[herzausstein]

3-11-4 on the road
On a road trip against good teams
2 sets of back to backs
4 games in 6 days next week

 

[NoNecksCurse]

We need to move on from wanting to fire Brunette. He’s the coach for at least the rest of the year unless things get even worse. Say another 8 game losing streak.

Our chances of making the playoffs are less than 5%. We should just hope at this point that they don’t go on another U2 heater to hurt the draft position.