Wheeler’s Top 100 prospects

[HawksDub89]

Nice. What an opportunity to take a potshot at the Habs! Grow up kid.

You need a diaper change?

 

[Jersey Fan 12]

Immediately recalling that year he had Poehling/Mete/Juulsen in his Top 40.

"I am not a homer!"

Not one to reflexively defend him, but he was not alone in his high opinion of Victor Mete.

Speaking of which, I didn't realize he was an assistant captain for Lehigh Valley but he played just one NHL game for the Flyers. Is this the end of the line for Mete in terms of NHL contracts?

 

[chaz4hockey]

Yes. Edvinsson is dominant defensively and in transition. Hes a 6'7 220 lb athletic freak that was picked 6th overall for a reason. All hes done since being drafted there is live up to/exceed expectations.

No reason a guy drafted that much lower should have passed him in a completely tier unless youre just reading their hockeydb pages

Ru observers view on Nikishin:

https://x.com/i/web/status/1821524633985655126

 

[HabsAddict]

They are not Habs yet ranking Sennecke and Lindstrom so low makes him not worth my time.

Further, no one called Celebrini generational so i don't see him that high. Yes, he's got a very high floor but his ceiling is not better then Michkov or Demidov.

Whatever. It seems like a dartboard then any deep insight.

 

[Haatley]

They are not Habs yet ranking Sennecke and Lindstrom so low makes him not worth my time.

Further, no one called Celebrini generational so i don't see him that high. Yes, he's got a very high floor but his ceiling is not better then Michkov or Demidov.

Whatever. It seems like a dartboard then any deep insight.

Celebrini absutelt has a higher ceiling than Demidov.

 

[TheKrebsCycle]

They are not Habs yet ranking Sennecke and Lindstrom so low makes him not worth my time.

Further, no one called Celebrini generational so i don't see him that high. Yes, he's got a very high floor but his ceiling is not better then Michkov or Demidov.

Whatever. It seems like a dartboard then any deep insight.

Michkov is going to be better than Celebrini

 

[TheCrease]

Michkov is going to be better than Celebrini

Yeah but different players. I like Celebrini's ceiling as a center.

 

[Minnesota Knudsens]

So just for someone like me doesn’t have time to analyze hockey prospects:

What happened with the general consensus that the 2023 draft would be legendary, while the 2024 draft would be “meh”? Is this just a case of overhype for 2023 or 2024 having “shiny new toy” syndrome?

 

[Just Linda]

So just for someone like me doesn’t have time to analyze hockey prospects:

What happened with the general consensus that the 2023 draft would be legendary, while the 2024 draft would be “meh”? Is this just a case of overhype for 2023 or 2024 having “shiny new toy” syndrome?

The quality of drafts by analysts is based on the top of the draft.

Celebrini would have been on the same tier as Fantilli and Carlsson, the dmen of this draft would've been on the same tier (except maybe 1) as Reinbacher or what's his face drafted by Zona.

Last year has a bigger run of talent and this year the quality fell a bit sooner.

Edit:

Look at it this way, your up to draft and you can pick between Leonard and Sennecke, who are you picking? Leonard went 8oa, Sennecke went 3rd.

 

[Minnesota Knudsens]

The quality of drafts by analysts is based on the top of the draft.

Celebrini would have been on the same tier as Fantilli and Carlsson, the dmen of this draft would've been on the same tier (except maybe 1) as Reinbacher or what's his face drafted by Zona.

Last year has a bigger run of talent and this year the quality fell a bit sooner.

Edit:

Look at it this way, your up to draft and you can pick between Leonard and Sennecke, who are you picking? Leonard went 8oa, Sennecke went 3rd.

Ah. So the top talent is similar minus Bedard, but 2023 was just deeper.

 

[DJB]

Wheeler is a clown and if you raise rational points with him or point out some flaws in his analysis or past lists you immediately get blocked on twitter

He’s a cry baby

 

[Oilers]

Caught a glimpse of some of the rankings and remembered why I don’t subscribe to the Athletic.

The recency bias is wild. How did Guenther drop to 31? The guy just came off 35 points in 48 NHL games and a point per game in the AHL

 

[PAZ]

Caught a glimpse of some of the rankings and remembered why I don’t subscribe to the Athletic.

The recency bias is wild. How did Guenther drop to 31? The guy just came off 35 points in 48 NHL games and a point per game in the AHL

This is his blurb on him: "Guenther is a beautiful skating winger who slices through holes and dashes past flat-footed defenders to create looks and advantages. He’s a flowing player who excels in transition, crossing over to build speed, attacking on angles across the line and breezing through neutral ice in possession to make plays off the rush. And while he uses a pretty high grip on his stick, his quick hands flash side to side, he catches pucks into a shooting stance out of cuts with a silky touch, and his shot is threatening from midrange because of its accuracy, variety (the curl-and-drag, the direct wrister and the one-timer) and power (which has increased enough to be a weapon from long range fairly consistently now).

He has also gotten stronger, adding to his multifaceted offensive package off the flank. Inside the offensive zone, his ability to handle the puck in traffic, play pucks into space and shape and hide his shot all impress. So he’s not only capable of transporting the puck and leading the rush, but he also has the offensive acumen to make things happen once the play slows down inside the offensive zone. Add in good control of his inside and outside edges and the ability to shoot from multiple stances and there’s a lot to like about his upside as a second-line winger. There are times when I’d like to see him drive play more at five-on-five than he does, and that has kept him a little lower on this list than where most would have him, but that will hopefully come with reps, confidence and maturity."

 

[Hockeyville USA]

So just for someone like me doesn’t have time to analyze hockey prospects:

What happened with the general consensus that the 2023 draft would be legendary, while the 2024 draft would be “meh”? Is this just a case of overhype for 2023 or 2024 having “shiny new toy” syndrome?

Bedard was overhyped (mostly rightfully so) because he's Canadian, got Exceptional Status/played in the CHL. Celebrini was underhyped as he played in the USHL and then NCAA; if he stayed home and played in the Dub, he would have gotten more hype.

2023 had Fantilli, Carlsson, Michkov, and Smith, whereas there wasn't a consensus number 2 player (pretty varied top 5-10) in 2024 for most of the year.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Ah. So the top talent is similar minus Bedard, but 2023 was just deeper.

Not really.

2023 had 5 players that reasonably could've gone #1 this year over Celebrini. (Though Michkov likely wouldn't have because oooh scary Russian)

 

[Oilers]

This is his blurb on him: "Guenther is a beautiful skating winger who slices through holes and dashes past flat-footed defenders to create looks and advantages. He’s a flowing player who excels in transition, crossing over to build speed, attacking on angles across the line and breezing through neutral ice in possession to make plays off the rush. And while he uses a pretty high grip on his stick, his quick hands flash side to side, he catches pucks into a shooting stance out of cuts with a silky touch, and his shot is threatening from midrange because of its accuracy, variety (the curl-and-drag, the direct wrister and the one-timer) and power (which has increased enough to be a weapon from long range fairly consistently now).

He has also gotten stronger, adding to his multifaceted offensive package off the flank. Inside the offensive zone, his ability to handle the puck in traffic, play pucks into space and shape and hide his shot all impress. So he’s not only capable of transporting the puck and leading the rush, but he also has the offensive acumen to make things happen once the play slows down inside the offensive zone. Add in good control of his inside and outside edges and the ability to shoot from multiple stances and there’s a lot to like about his upside as a second-line winger. There are times when I’d like to see him drive play more at five-on-five than he does, and that has kept him a little lower on this list than where most would have him, but that will hopefully come with reps, confidence and maturity."

Thanks for posting this!

 

[Baksfamous112]

Celebrini absutelt has a higher ceiling than Demidov.

And Michkov. Not even close

 

[Minnesota Knudsens]

Not really.

2023 had 5 players that reasonably could've gone #1 this year over Celebrini. (Though Michkov likely wouldn't have because oooh scary Russian)

Yeah this is what I was used to reading when the 2023 draft arrived. Hence my original question. Obviously I’m learning that there are varying opinions on the matter, which just makes it more interesting to see how these players actually perform.

 

[Minnesota Knudsens]

Bedard was overhyped (mostly rightfully so) because he's Canadian, got Exceptional Status/played in the CHL. Celebrini was underhyped as he played in the USHL and then NCAA; if he stayed home and played in the Dub, he would have gotten more hype.

2023 had Fantilli, Carlsson, Michkov, and Smith, whereas there wasn't a consensus number 2 player (pretty varied top 5-10) in 2024 for most of the year.

I guess my question is more about picks 2 and beyond in these drafts. For example, in your opinion how do guys like Levshunov or Demidov stack up to the 4 guys that you mentioned from 2023, or say Reinbacher at no 5?

 

[Hockeyville USA]

I guess my question is more about picks 2 and beyond in these drafts. For example, in your opinion how do guys like Levshunov or Demidov stack up to the 4 guys that you mentioned from 2023, or say Reinbacher at no 5?

Levshunov and Demidov are behind the 4 I mentioned but ahead of Reinbacher for sure.

 

[dgibb10]

I guess my question is more about picks 2 and beyond in these drafts. For example, in your opinion how do guys like Levshunov or Demidov stack up to the 4 guys that you mentioned from 2023, or say Reinbacher at no 5?

Demidov would fall behind all of the forwards taken in the top 7: Bedard, Leo, Fantilli, Smith, Michkov
Levshunov likely would have been the 1st dman off the board. I think quite any number of Silayev, Dickinson, Levshunov, Yakemchuk, Parekh, Buium, could have reasonably went before both Reinbacher and Simashev.

Levshunov and Demidov are behind the 4 I mentioned but ahead of Reinbacher for sure.

Combined draft board top 10 likely goes like:

Bedard, Leo, Fantilli, Smith, Levshunov (number 1 RD to MTL), Silayev (Number 1 LD to Utah), Michkov, Demidov, Leonard, Danielson (maybe Lindstrom here)

 

[Hockeyville USA]

Demidov would fall behind all of the forwards taken in the top 7: Bedard, Leo, Fantilli, Smith, Michkov
Levshunov likely would have been the 1st dman off the board. I think quite any number of Silayev, Dickinson, Levshunov, Yakemchuk, Parekh, Buium, could have reasonably went before both Reinbacher and Simashev.


Combined draft board top 10 likely goes like:

Bedard, Leo, Fantilli, Smith, Levshunov (number 1 RD to MTL), Silayev (Number 1 LD to Utah), Michkov, Demidov, Leonard, Danielson (maybe Lindstrom here)

I would put Lindstrom ahead of Danielson every day of the week, presuming Lindstrom is fully healthy.

 

[coooldude]

Not really.

2023 had 5 players that reasonably could've gone #1 this year over Celebrini. (Though Michkov likely wouldn't have because oooh scary Russian)

At the risk of being called a homer, most of the chatter I've heard since about May has put Celebrini firmly in the #2 spot behind Bedard, or at least a conversation vs. Michkov, but probably edges Fantilli and Carlsson. So I don't think 2023 had 5 players that reasonably could've gone #1 over Celebrini.

Demidov would fall behind all of the forwards taken in the top 7: Bedard, Leo, Fantilli, Smith, Michkov
Levshunov likely would have been the 1st dman off the board. I think quite any number of Silayev, Dickinson, Levshunov, Yakemchuk, Parekh, Buium, could have reasonably went before both Reinbacher and Simashev.


Combined draft board top 10 likely goes like:

Bedard, Leo, Fantilli, Smith, Levshunov (number 1 RD to MTL), Silayev (Number 1 LD to Utah), Michkov, Demidov, Leonard, Danielson (maybe Lindstrom here)

To that point, where's Celebrini? And, hard to understand how you have Silayev ahead of Michkov, Demidov, Leonard, and Danielson when Tij, Yak, Catton, Parekh went before him.

Feels like a more realistic combined draft goes:
Bedard, Celebrini/Fantilli/Carlsson in some order, Smith, Levshunov, Michkov, Lindstrom/Demidov, Leonard, Iginla, Yak/Parekh (went to a baker's dozen for fun).

 

[Juxtaposer]

Ah. So the top talent is similar minus Bedard, but 2023 was just deeper.

2024 is like if you took out Bedard and Carlsson and you didn't have talents like Perreault, ASP, Musty, Benson, Ritchie, Nadeau, Gulyayev, Cowan, Yager, and Molendyk in the mid-late 1st.

Basically, 2024 is characterized by a huge drop-off after Celebrini and another huge drop-off after #12. I think it's fair to say that nobody in the 2024 draft after Celebrini, who probably goes 2nd in 2023, would even crack the top-5 in 2023. That is to say that any of Bedard/Carlsson/Fantilli/Smith/Michkov would have gone comfortably top-2 in 2024.

I think it's fair to say that the talent in the #2-12 range in 2024 is similar to the talent in the #6-18 range in 2023.

Not really.

2023 had 5 players that reasonably could've gone #1 this year over Celebrini. (Though Michkov likely wouldn't have because oooh scary Russian)

2023 had exactly one player that reasonably would have gone over Celebrini.

 

[dgibb10]

At the risk of being called a homer, most of the chatter I've heard since about May has put Celebrini firmly in the #2 spot behind Bedard, or at least a conversation vs. Michkov, but probably edges Fantilli and Carlsson. So I don't think 2023 had 5 players that reasonably could've gone #1 over Celebrini.



To that point, where's Celebrini? And, hard to understand how you have Silayev ahead of Michkov, Demidov, Leonard, and Danielson when Tij, Yak, Catton, Parekh went before him.

Feels like a more realistic combined draft goes:
Bedard, Celebrini/Fantilli/Carlsson in some order, Smith, Levshunov, Michkov, Lindstrom/Demidov, Leonard, Iginla, Yak/Parekh (went to a baker's dozen for fun).

Forgot celebrini lmao. He'd go anywhere from 2-4.

I had Silayev go 6th because Utah picked 6th and they took a big russian LD over all the guys you mentioned. I have them going the same route, just with a different big russian LD who I view as a better prospect than Simashev.

Smith may be so good a prospect he makes MTL switch tho with celebrini pushing him down to 5