What's wrong with Connor McDavid this season? Lowest PPG and GPG output in ~7-8 years for him

[bobholly39]

Connor McDavid seems to be struggling a lot this season to stand out from a scoring perspective. He's certainly not playing "bad", as he is still one of the league leaders, but he no longer seems to stand out as the league's best offensive player, but rather more as part of the pack.

League leaders as of this posting:

MacKinnon 90 points
Draisaitl 88 points
Kucherov 86 points
McDavid 74 points

That's a big gap from the top 3.

I expected he might come roaring back after the 4 nations and go on a tear to end the year, but so far in 4 games he has 3 assists, and is a -7, in 4 straight losses for the Oilers.

McDavid's point per game right now is 1.4. Or, a pace of ~115 points in 82 games. That's his lowest output by far in 7 years

Season	PPG	Pace over 82 games
2018-19	1.49	122
2019-20	1.52	124
2020-21	1.88	154
2021-22	1.54	126
2022-23	1.87	153
2023-24	1.74	142
2024-25	1.40	115

If you look at goals scored, it doesn't get much better. He is also at his lowest goals per game over the last 8 years this time (tied with last year)

Season	GPG	Pace over 82 games
2017-18	0.50	41
2018-19	0.53	43
2019-20	0.53	44
2020-21	0.59	48
2021-22	0.55	45
2022-23	0.78	64
2023-24	0.42	35
2024-25	0.42	35

This isn't meant to be a "let's hate on McDavid" thread, I'm usually one of the ones singing his praises, as I did in playoffs last year. But I'm genuinely surprised to see him scoring so little this year. So what's going on? Is he injured? Is he just having an off-year? Is he already starting to slow down/decline slightly, where his days at the very top of league are no longer the expectation?

Do you see him bouncing back in-year, and still making a race for the Ross, or close? Do you see him coming back and lapping the field again next season?

Curious to hear people's opinions.

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[waitin425]

He's 28 years old. This is his 10th season. Every career has a peak, and it probably happens around age 28 give or take a couple years. His peak may be behind him. Doesn't mean he isn't going to be phenomenal for the next 10. Just means he might not reach the heights he did a couple years ago.

 

[the valiant effort]

He wants to have some gas in the tank for the next R4G7.

 

[Super Hans]

His heart's already in Toronto.

 

[daver]

Probably should wait until the playoffs are over to put a particular label on this season. Like Crosby, he has earned the right to not be as good as expected in the regular season as long as he is as good as expected in the playoffs.

If he, and Draisaitl, spend any more energy than needed in the regular season to position them for hopefully another Cup run, they aren't doing it right.

The Oilers are on a bit of tailspin right now; don't be surprised to see McDavid turn it up a bit to avoid being a WC team or worse.

 

[Hockeyfan2390]

Sounds like he needs to dig in, right f***ing now.

 

[Toby91ca]

Honestly it’s not bad at all. 1) it’s not easy to be at the top every single year, it’s draining, he’s played a lot of games as well. 2) his production really isn’t down that much in the grand scheme of things, overall league scoring is down this year vs the past 3 years, his production vs the 2020-21 season is a big difference, but that seems to be the one-off, compared to the 2 years prior to that, down a bit, but not huge.

 

[daver]

Honestly it’s not bad at all. 1) it’s not easy to be at the top every single year, it’s draining, he’s played a lot of games as well. 2) his production really isn’t down that much in the grand scheme of things, overall league scoring is down this year vs the past 3 years, his production vs the 2020-21 season is a big difference, but that seems to be the one-off, compared to the 2 years prior to that, down a bit, but not huge.

Power play opportunities have dropped this season which is the reason scoring is down a bit but it is really only the very elite scorers who have dropped. There are as many PPG scorers as before but the PPGs of the Top 10/20 have dropped.

McDavid' ES scoring is a bit down along with his PP points.

I wouldn't say his 20/21 season was a one-off as his 22/23 was as good, and his season last year was almost as good, he was just surprisingly matched by Kucherov and MacKinnon.

 

[behemolari]

its terrible he has to go immediately to Toronto fix it

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

He's gonna put up 2ppg in the playoffs

 

[Uncle Scrooge]

You just can't be at your best every season.

He's played 9 seasons 21-22 minutes per game without missing more than, what, 30-40 games? And is coming off of a playoff run as deep as it gets. Maybe dealing with something too.

He clearly needed the break. But didn't get it.

But yeah, you know you're pretty good when a 115 point pace leads questions like what's wrong.

We're enjoying the Ovi race for the greatest goal scorer of all time, but it's easy to forget he went back to back seasons without 40 goals after dominating the League for a handful of years. You play 20 years in the League, ups and downs are inevitable.

 

[Norwegianoiler]

Trying to be a team player and reduce the cost of his next contract.

 

[a mangy Meowth]

He's just having a slight off year and other guys are surging.

He'll probably lead the league in scoring by 15 points next season

 

[benfranklin]

We saw his prime already.

 

[OilersFanatics505]

He's gonna put up 2ppg in the playoffs

In 4 games when we get swept and lose every game 4-2

 

[PamBallam]

Off year. Pacing himself for the playoffs. Also wouldn't surprise me if he's got some nagging injury that he's playing through.

 

[Three On Zero]

Has anyone said he needs to dig in yet?

It’s a combination of age, injuries and the league adjusting to better defend him

 

[Breakfast of Champs]

Hes done with going 100 percent in the regular season. His hardware is legendary, he can "coast" to 110 pts and feel fresh for the playoffs.

The only thing I'm sure he cares about is the cup

 

[NyQuil]

I'll be concerned if his production also falls off in the post-season.

He doesn't have anything to prove anymore in the regular season.

 

[Fatass]

It’s all about the Cup now for McDavid. He knows he needs a Cup to cement his legacy as more than just a point producer and be a winner. He will ramp up during playoff hockey.

 

[Coffey]

Who knows, but he's ass this year

He will ramp up during playoff hockey.

If they make the playoffs.

 

[Kahvi]

Didn't he miss some games early in the season? or was there some shoulder injury last season? anyways I'd guess it's some lingering injury that needs some time to heal and / or surgery, and he's decided to play through it.

 

[OilersFanatics505]

He’s played a lot of hockey over the past 24 months….

 

[Cats2TheCup]

As I have said before, at a certain point in your career, being the regular season leader in pts and losing in the playoffs becomes very cringe. Let the young guys try hard for meaningless regular season accolades. Once you get the paycheck its playoff wins that matter.

The people who are saying its cuz he’s old and then cite people older than him beating him in pts? Lol.

 

[EdmFlyersfan]

He's at his peak, as his speed also diminishes (which is one of his greatest assets) his drop-off will become greater unless he can reinvent his game.