What's the minimum a first overall pick has to become to not be labelled a disappointment?

[elmaco]

Some drafts are weaker than others, but i'd guess it's the "Franchise" level.

 

[wetcoast]

RNH is a first line LW. I'd call him a disappointment as an Oilers fan.

2011 was also quite a weak draft year as was 2012.

When drafted he was being projected as an elite offensive centerman that was good defensively. He turned into a complimentary 60-pt top-6 winger that's been tied at the hip to McDavid and Draisaitl. I would associate that type of player as a 5-20 overall pick. A 1st? Disappointing.

sure a little bit but some of that is the draft year as no one was taking any other the 3 guys who have outscored him in the NHL #1 on draft day and who knows how their development in Edmonton would have gone anyways.

Mild disappointment but nothing major given the context.

 

[Paper]

I went more with the people. Nugent-Hopkins or Johnson are fine. I think labelling them as second liner, or especially top 4 defender is a bit unfair. Maybe it's cause I'm a Flames fan so I don't know what a top line center is but Nugent-Hopkins is still top 20 over the last 10 years in points as those listed as centers. Yeah, I mean he's clearly the second line when center but the guy in front of him isn't too bad.

But if you get those guys in a bad draft year where maybe 2 of the top 3 bust, you're feeling pretty good. If you get it in a year where they are being touted as the next one, then yeah they are a disappointment.

 

[Paper]

I'm also woefully unqualified to answer this question as a Flames fan

 

[Took a pill in Sbisa]

2011 was also quite a weak draft year as was 2012.


sure a little bit but some of that is the draft year as no one was taking any other the 3 guys who have outscored him in the NHL #1 on draft day and who knows how their development in Edmonton would have gone anyways.

Mild disappointment but nothing major given the context.

Yeah I wasn't trying to say that the Oilers could have made a better pick that year. The consensus at the time was him vs Adam Larsson and to some extent, Landeskog.

Would have been a disappointment no matter who they chose, some years are inevitably going to be disappointing.

 

[Mrb1p]

Franchise. Youre picking first, you should get a franchise player.

 

[the_fan]

Something in between McDavid and Yakupov

 

[MessierII]

I’d take Nugent Hopkins over Taylor hall so I’m not sure about your tiers but generally speaking you want a first line caliber player or top pair guy.

 

[Plural]

Like others have said, it depends on the draft. But optimally, you'd like to get a legit career 1st line player / 1st pairing D from the #1 pick.

Anything beyond that is gravy and anything below that is kind of "meh".

P.S. Don't pick goalies there.


Edit: Just thought of an example. Sebastian Aho, if you get #1 pick in an average draft. Sebastian Aho is pretty much the level of player I would be "fine" with. He's a legit #1 C, not the best out there but definitely not the worst. Kind of a jack of all trades. So that's the level for me.

 

[geebster]

It depends who is doing the rating:

For fans of the team drafting anything short of a franchise player is a disappointment.

From an objective/non fan perspective I'd say the line is first liner or top pair defenseman.

There's a lot of variance year to year and there are not a lot of top line or top D jobs with a lot of people competing for those spots already. Beating those guys out and being solidly top line or pair isn't a small thing.

Not that I'd know what it's like for my team to draft first overall.

 

[Rorschach]

I remember the 1996 draft. I think Ottawa did fine with Chris Phillips considering the junkpile available the rest of the first two rounds.

 

[Ducks in a row]

Legit top pair defenseman or legit top line forward through a long career.

 

[lawrence]

Even in a weak draft year like 2025, 1st pick, I’m expecting a 1st line player, or top pairing pairing dman out of the 1st pick.

 

[ole ole]

Franchise. Youre picking first, you should get a franchise player.

That's what you hope for. In reality there's not a franchise player in every draft.

 

[DaveG]

Probably in the sense that the entire draft is, yes. Have there even been any drafts in which the top turnout is weak 1c?

closest is 96, and even there we still got a no-doubter HOF dman in the 3rd in Chara.


I mean in one sense it's entirely draft dependent. Take 96 for instance. Getting a solid 2nd pairing dman like Phillips in retrospect is doing pretty decent especially when there were only 3 other guys in the first 2 rounds that had a similar level of impact.

But on the other side of things if the guy doesn't turn out to be at least a first line caliber player after having to deal with your team being bad enough to be in that position in the first place then yeah, it's a disappointment.

And then of course there's the expectations of what the player was projected to be to start with. Phillips wasn't expected to be a gamebreaker and lived up to his billing pretty well, so the only issue is that there wasn't someone available to realistically take at that spot that was better. A guy like DP in 2000 on the other hand isn't just disappointing, but is a huge loss in terms of opportunity cost considering that Heatley and Gaborik were both available at that spot as well.

 

[Mrb1p]

That's what you hope for. In reality there's not a franchise player in every draft.

Its like 5 in 6 draft that has a franchise player going first. You have to be incredibly unlucky to not get one.

Celibrini - Demidov
Bedard - Michkov - Fantilli
Hutson
Johnston - Weird covid years
Stutzle
Hughes - Boldy - Seider
Dahlin
Makar - Hischier - Suzuki - Thomas - Pettersson?
Matthews - Tkachuk - Keller - McAvoy
McDavid - Marner - Eichel
Draisaitl
Mackinnon - Barkov
None
Kucherov but 2nd round
Tarasenko - Stone (Russian and skating bias)
Tavares - Hedman
Stamkos - Doughty - Pietrangelo
Kane
Toews - Backstrom - Kessel
Crosby - Price
Ovi - Malkin
Staal - Getzlaf - Burns - Perry

Counting just the draft with a top 3 pick thats a franchise player at the minimum, we have a 80% rate of franchise player with the first overall, if it's top 1, it's a 63% chance. Like if you don't hit a franchise player with the first OA, you should be actively looking at firing your scouting staff.

 

[bleedthenorth]

There's at least one franchise player in every draft, so anything less than that is a disappointment.