What's the max you'd give to Evans?

[Draft]

That's the difficulty. You can put responsible veterans with the rookie but center ice is still center ice which inherently comes with alot of responsibility on both sides. The wingers can only do so much.

The right call isn't clear in this case but if Evans keeps going the way he is, 3 mil will certainly not cut it.

If we’re looking to incorporate Beck or Kapanen at center, I’d prefer they aren’t stuck on the 4th line or playing wing. Both will have had a year or more (4 in Kapanen’s case) of professional hockey at center. If neither are ready to play 3C with veteran wingers and some PK time in their D+4/5 seasons, we’ve gotta ask some questions about our development staff and the quality of these prospects.

I think it’s clear what the best decision is. It’s unfortunate that we’re getting priced out on a quality bottom-6 player in a position we don’t have much stability in. However, doubling up on being in an unfortunate circumstance by making a short-sighted decision isn’t a good path forward.

 

[Redux91]

Feels like it's going up a million bucks a day lmao

I'm happy for him but don't take us out of the price range!

 

[GrandBison]

If Evans is a 4th liner, Newhook is an AHLer. Newhook is not a center, since he can't defend or win a face-off.

Without Evans, the Habs collapse defensively, Suzuki needs some help.

Newhook is at 45% and Evans at 49%. Newhook will be just find as a 3rd liner and is 5 years younger. I like Evans but let's not overhype him. We always find good PK players, and overpaying them is the last thing HuGo should do.

 

[Miller Time]

You’re willing to give a guy shooting at nearly 30% in a contract year at 28 years old a long-term 4.5mil contract? That’s a tough one for me. The rest of his career he’s been a 30pt, 4th line player. If we saw another team doing this, we’d be laughing.

You might want to revisit what salary cap increases have done to contracts.

Also, Dvorak, a career high of 37pts in 2018 when he signed this current deal... As an RFA no less.

Evans sh% and goal scoring has almost nothing to do with why he'd be a good player to retain the next few seasons... Frankly all it's doing is raising the cost, and if he & his agent aim to get max value, it will be for much more than 4-4.5M/per if he keeps up this pace.

While his improved offensive production & the SH goals are nice, it's his overall versatility & his contributions to our much improved PK, that is perhaps his best contribution. That isn't likely to diminish through his 29-33/34 seasons.

Given how much he relies on quickness and how long it took him to improve that part of his game, age could definitely play a role for him declining earlier.

I don't agree. His quickness, as you point out, has improved moreso because of continuous improvement in his skating technique, rather than drastic physical improvements. It's exactly because he's a player who has built up to this current level of play, rather than relying on physical strengths, that he less likely to decline rapidly as he crosses 30... Unlike a guy like Anderson.

If we think he’s going to continue to shoot at 30% for the length of his contract and get 16mins a night, then by all means, pay him middle-6 money. If we think he’ll correct to his career average shooting percentage, the improvements to his game put him at .5PPG rather than .4PPG, and he finds a role in the bottom-6… that’s a wildly irresponsible way to manage the cap with guys like Beck and Kapanen knocking on the door.

Again, the sh% is not the draw.

If he gets paid like a 20g/50pt, PK specialist, he's going to sign for far more than 4.5M$ this offseason... Again here, it's important to anchor contract expectations in the reality of the NHL.

If the team decides to keep max cap flexibility and replace Armia, Savard, Dvorak & Evans with either internal youth or Bargainbin vets, then sure, we'll avoid paying "fair" vet UFA prices. But if we want to maintain or improve on veteran roster spots, it's going to require market-value range contracts regardless of wether you or I "like" the cost.

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

Don't fall in love , its a trap

 

[CristianoRonaldo]

Which means he's not a fourth liner.

He's not, he's a 3rd liner.

 

[Sorinth]

800K!?!?!

How much do you think Dvorak is going to get? He's missed significant time each of the past 3 seasons, his production which was never all that great has regressed by half, his ice time has been cut every year he's been here, he doesn't really bring size, speed, or physicality, but on the plus side he can PK and win faceoffs.

Most teams will have a guy in their prospect pool who they think will be a solid 3rd liner and so they're going to want to give that prospect a chance. The teams most interested in him will be playoff teams with little cap space which will squeeze what little leverage he has.

But honestly if Dvorak says no thanks, which hey does make some sense for him, then I have no issue with him walking away either.

 

[Draft]

You might want to revisit what salary cap increases have done to contracts.

Also, Dvorak, a career high of 37pts in 2018 when he signed this current deal... As an RFA no less.

Evans sh% and goal scoring has almost nothing to do with why he'd be a good player to retain the next few seasons... Frankly all it's doing is raising the cost, and if he & his agent aim to get max value, it will be for much more than 4-4.5M/per if he keeps up this pace.

While his improved offensive production & the SH goals are nice, it's his overall versatility & his contributions to our much improved PK, that is perhaps his best contribution. That isn't likely to diminish through his 29-33/34 seasons.


I don't agree. His quickness, as you point out, has improved moreso because of continuous improvement in his skating technique, rather than drastic physical improvements. It's exactly because he's a player who has built up to this current level of play, rather than relying on physical strengths, that he less likely to decline rapidly as he crosses 30... Unlike a guy like Anderson.


Again, the sh% is not the draw.

If he gets paid like a 20g/50pt, PK specialist, he's going to sign for far more than 4.5M$ this offseason... Again here, it's important to anchor contract expectations in the reality of the NHL.

If the team decides to keep max cap flexibility and replace Armia, Savard, Dvorak & Evans with either internal youth or Bargainbin vets, then sure, we'll avoid paying "fair" vet UFA prices. But if we want to maintain or improve on veteran roster spots, it's going to require market-value range contracts regardless of wether you or I "like" the cost.

I sure hope Dvorak isn’t being used as a justification for overpaying Evans.

The anomalous shot percentage and 16mins/night are driving the price of his contract (on this board). Neither of these things are likely to continue if he’s a Hab moving forward. If he had a normal shooting percentage, scored .6ppg, and played 16mins a night on a *good* team, he might be worth it - there are comparables between 4-5mil. I’m not sure what contracts/reality you’re referencing, but there are very few career bottom-6 Cs to get offered 4.5mil after a hot streak (or whatever cap percentage you’d like).

Roslovic, Hayton, Pinto, Lizotte, Stenlund, Lafferty, Lundestrom, Domi, Texier, Blueger, are all under 4mil, most under 3mil, all signed last year. They’re all bottom-6 centers with varying levels of special teams responsibility. There are a couple in there I’d consider comparable to Evans.

He’s nowhere close to having the same resume as players that got over 4mil - Stephenson, Wennberg, Sharangovich, Monahan, Lindholm, Lundell, or Mittelstadt. Even with the cap increasing, I’m not sure what comparables you’re using. If you could tell me which center making between 4-5mil you’re using to justify paying Evans similarly, I’d genuinely like to know because I don’t see it. Dickinson? Colton? No thanks.

 

[CristianoRonaldo]

Newhook is at 45% and Evans at 49%. Newhook will be just find as a 3rd liner and is 5 years younger. I like Evans but let's not overhype him. We always find good PK players, and overplaying them is the last thing HuGo should do.

Yes, Jake Evans has 49.4% of faceoffs wins, this season and the last two years, he was at 52%.

We can't rely on Newhook defensively, he's atrocious, he's not a center.

 

[Garnet76]

10pts in the last 10 games for Evans

 

[417]

How much do you think Dvorak is going to get? He's missed significant time each of the past 3 seasons, his production which was never all that great has regressed by half, his ice time has been cut every year he's been here, he doesn't really bring size, speed, or physicality, but on the plus side he can PK and win faceoffs.

By comparison Michael Pezzeta makes 813K/yr.

Nick Bjustad makes just over 2M/yr, I’d say that’s probably right around what I think Dvorak could get in free agency next year no problem.

He’s a vested veteran, unless he’s signing a PTO, 800K seems very low to me.

Most teams will have a guy in their prospect pool who they think will be a solid 3rd liner and so they're going to want to give that prospect a chance. The teams most interested in him will be playoff teams with little cap space which will squeeze what little leverage he has.

But honestly if Dvorak says no thanks, which hey does make some sense for him, then I have no issue with him walking away either.

Yeah I’m not saying they should sign him, but just thought that figure was low.

But who knows what market he will or won’t have in the summer.

 

[No More Subban]

Don't fall in love , its a trap

Very true. Thanks for the reminder.

I'm good if we keep him (no more than 3m), also okay if we let him go. I'd love to see Beck replace him next season.

 

[Shutdown]

Very true. Thanks for the reminder.

I'm good if we keep him (no more than 3m), also okay if we let him go. I'd love to see Beck replace him next season.

Beck might be better than Evans at the same age but he's not better than Evans now and it'll take a couple of years to get there. if the Habs lose Evans because of his contract demands, they better have a plan in place that isn't a rookie. that's how you go the Buffalo Sabres route.

 

[Benstheman]

Absolutely no problem paying him 3-3,5M$ for the next 3-4 since we know our other centers in Beck and Hage will be on their ELC and bridge deals. We need another veteran center on top of Suzuki.

 

[Sorinth]

By comparison Michael Pezzeta makes 813K/yr.

Nick Bjustad makes just over 2M/yr, I’d say that’s probably right around what I think Dvorak could get in free agency next year no problem.

He’s a vested veteran, unless he’s signing a PTO, 800K seems very low to me.

Yeah I’m not saying they should sign him, but just thought that figure was low.

But who knows what market he will or won’t have in the summer.

Bjugstad isn't a bad comparable, but he did have 17 goals the year he signed that contract and of course is 6'5 and hits. Dvorak is on pace for less then 5 goals, and although not small, doesn't have the same physical game that teams generally covet and overpay for.

It could happen that he finds a place that pays him 2m, but I don't think it's all that likely. Anyways main point is that if Evans is traded bringing Dvorak back on the cheap is reasonable as a plan C or D.

 

[26Mats]

Absolutely no problem paying him 3-3,5M$ for the next 3-4 since we know our other centers in Beck and Hage will be on their ELC and bridge deals. We need another veteran center on top of Suzuki.

And there's also Kapanen.

 

[Ozmodiar]

Evans playing himself into a good contract, but also a good trade return. Maybe they circle back to Dvo.

By mid March, with asset package would you like the Habs to hold?

1st rd 2025 pick (Evans traded)
Dvo 3 x 3m (25pt bottom 6 C)

2nd rd 2025 pick(dvo traded)
Evans 5 x 4M (50pt bottom 6 C)

1st, 2nd
Let the rookies take over.

 

[26Mats]

Evans playing himself into a good contract, but also a good trade return. Maybe they circle back to Dvo.

By mid March, with asset package would you like the Habs to hold?

1st rd 2025 pick (Evans traded)
Dvo 3 x 3m (25pt bottom 6 C)

2nd rd 2025 pick(dvo traded)
Evans 5 x 4M (50pt bottom 6 C)

1st, 2nd
Let the rookies take over.

I think it's possible we get a 1st for Evan's, or what Lehkonen got...I don't see Dvo netting a 2nd.

 

[Miller Time]

I sure hope Dvorak isn’t being used as a justification for overpaying Evans.

Serious question... Which ufa's since 2018 signed for more than 3M$ by any team (that wasn't a 1 year deal for a vet looking to contend) wasn't "overpaid" in your estimation?

The anomalous shot percentage and 16mins/night are driving the price of his contract (on this board). Neither of these things are likely to continue if he’s a Hab moving forward.

Evans has averaged 15:28 per game since 2023. I think you're wrong here.

If he had a normal shooting percentage, scored .6ppg, and played 16mins a night on a *good* team, he might be worth it - there are comparables between 4-5mil. I’m not sure what contracts/reality you’re referencing, but there are very few career bottom-6 Cs to get offered 4.5mil after a hot streak (or whatever cap percentage you’d like).

Copp, Andrew
Gourde, Yanni
Wennberg, Alex
Pageau, JG
Coleman, Blake
Dickson, Jason
Fabbri, Robbi

And you know what none of them had in common... A 90+M cap ceiling nor a ~4M cap increase the year they hit free agency.

Roslovic, Hayton, Pinto, Lizotte, Stenlund, Lafferty, Lundestrom, Domi, Texier, Blueger, are all under 4mil, most under 3mil, all signed last year. They’re all bottom-6 centers with varying levels of special teams responsibility. There are a couple in there I’d consider comparable to Evans.

Several of these players were RFAs
Some had minimal track record, shady character issues, or little to no PK prowess making them poor depth fits or clear 4th line fodder.

Blueger is perhaps the closest comparison, but he's never played over 70 games in a season... His health issues have sidetracked his career, depressed his negotiating power and given him every reason to settle on a shorter term team-friendly deal with a team he found a good fit in.

He’s nowhere close to having the same resume as players that got over 4mil - Stephenson, Wennberg, Sharangovich, Monahan, Lindholm, Lundell, or Mittelstadt.

Now your using players that signed as high as 7M, and who are or have been top 6 staples as your reference points?

Stamkos got 8M$, Evans has the same amount of points, therefore he should get that contract... Am I doing it right

Even with the cap increasing, I’m not sure what comparables you’re using. If you could tell me which center making between 4-5mil you’re using to justify paying Evans similarly, I’d genuinely like to know because I don’t see it. Dickinson? Colton? No thanks.

Cap isn't just "increasing", it's increasing significantly... If you can't understand that this will impact UFA contracts this summer, I don't think there's much to discuss.

If you don't want to retain Evans, no problem. If you think we're going to get a different UFA of similar or greater performance caliber for less, I'd love to know who you think is taking a discount to sign in Montreal this summer... I'm all for it!

If he extends for considerably less than UFA market range for a player of his performance level, great! It's been awhile since we got a long term team friendly deal on a UFA... It's rare, but not impossible.

 

[SwiftyHab]

Don't fall in love , its a trap

I can’t control what the heart wants. I want to sign him with no pre-nup.

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

Evans playing himself into a good contract, but also a good trade return. Maybe they circle back to Dvo.

By mid March, with asset package would you like the Habs to hold?

1st rd 2025 pick (Evans traded)
Dvo 3 x 3m (25pt bottom 6 C)

2nd rd 2025 pick(dvo traded)
Evans 5 x 4M (50pt bottom 6 C)

1st, 2nd
Let the rookies take over.

Easily the 2nd option for me.

Beck steps into Dvorak's role next season and our bottom six centers are instantly cheaper even with Evans' raise. I try my hardest to move Gallagher to create a spot for Kapanen or maybe a UFA like Olivier.

 

[viceroy]

I would give him Dvorak's liked contract and keep Armia with him. Armia Evans Heinmen is our new shut down

So you want to re-sign Armia as well?

Playing Beck/Kapanen at 3C with two strong veteran wingers would be about as ideal of an insulating scenario as we could hope for.

I think 3rd line Centre duties is too much for Beck and/or Kapanen.

Give this man whatever he wants

Sure, let's just give him that 4.5AAV contract for the next 4yrs. *smh* Is this really what the Habs boards have turned into? I always liked to think that we were smarter than the average Main Board mouth-breathers but when this type of comment is the accepted wisdom on here...

if the Habs lose Evans because of his contract demands, they better have a plan in place that isn't a rookie. that's how you go the Buffalo Sabres route.

Like it or not eventually you have to test your prospects. I don't think having Beck and/or Kapanen running your 4th line is too big of an ask. It's not like having 5 rookies as your d-corps like we did a few years back. Grabbing some jobbers and overpaying some of your vets... that's how you go the Marc Bergevin route.

Beck steps into Dvorak's role next season and our bottom six centers are instantly cheaper even with Evans' raise. I try my hardest to move Gallagher to create a spot for Kapanen or maybe a UFA like Olivier.

So you overpay Evans to center your 4th but then stick your rookie as your #3 guy? Why move Gallagher now since Armia's out the door shortly? Unless you wanna re-sign Yoel.

Personally my 3rd would be Anderson - Newhook - Gallagher and my 4th would be Heineman - Beck - Kapanen.

 

[the]

Don't fall in love , its a trap

This!! The rebuild is not done. Be happy Evans is having a career year and cash on it at the TDL.

 

[Essenege]

If Evans asks north of 4M per, I trade him at the deadline, resign Dvorak on the cheap and play Beck on the 4th.

I was a Dvorak hater at the start of the year but he gets some credit for reviving Gallagher and Anderson. He has better 5v5 advanced stats for the whole season than Evans at around 55% expected goals (best forward on the team for that metric), but terrible puck luck.

He also have around the same goal against per minute played on the PK then Evans.

Like Evans, he’s having his first stretch without injury in a while. Might explain the jump in performance, although it could be the contract year.

He might cost half of Evans for the same thing.

 

[GrandBison]

Absolutely no problem paying him 3-3,5M$ for the next 3-4 since we know our other centers in Beck and Hage will be on their ELC and bridge deals. We need another veteran center on top of Suzuki.

Of course Evans at 3.0 x 3 is a no brainer, but I don't see why he would agree to that. Right now, Evans is a nice to have, but I hope he's not part of the core.