What's a fair CAP HIT for Matthews over the next 5 years?

[KevinRedkey]

Fair for both parties (Leafs and A.Matthews) of course.
Used 5yrs as that's what he signed for last time.

2023-2024 forward cap hits over 11.000 for reference:
MacKinnon - 12.600
McDavid - 12.500
Panarin - 11.643
Matthews - 11.640
Pastrnak - 11.250

Edit: added what's below after NyQuil asked for more context:

Here's the cap% each deal was for, and what it equates to for 2023-24:
MacKinnon - 15.27% (~12.750)
McDavid - 16.67% (~13.920)
Panarin - 14.29% (~11.930)
Matthews - 14.64% (~12.225)
Pastrnak - 13.64% (~11.400)

And finally what they equate to if the salary cap was 87.675 which is expected in 2024-25:
MacKinnon ~13.900
McDavid ~14.615
Panarin ~12.530
Matthews ~12.830
Pastrnak ~11.960

Click to read more...

 

[Melrose Munch]

4 th or 5th best player so top 5 money.

 

[Sean Garrity]

Does he want to win? I know the cap is supposed to go up, but in order to surround yourself with elite talent you almost have to take less then what your market value is.

 

[KevinRedkey]

4 th or 5th best player so top 5 money.

11,250,001 or more would net him get top 5 money.
He's currently the 4th highest paid player in the NHL FWIW

 

[NyQuil]

Can you add the year where they signed their contracts to the OP?

The cap is expected to go up.

I don't think McDavid would re-sign for the same amount as he's currently being paid.

 

[PainForShane]

I originally was thinking 13m, but on a five year deal he'll get to sign another one before MacKinnon does, so I voted 12.5+.

To the point just made in the parent thread, can anyone think of a young superstar UFA who preferred to sign for less than 8 years? There must be at least one person but I can't think of anyone off the top of my head

 

[Haatley]

4 th or 5th best player so top 5 money.

Which of McDavid, Mackinnon, Draisaitl, Kucherov, Tkachuk, Makar (just to name a few) is he better than?

 

[TheDawnOfANewTage]

He could get 13+, so that. If someone is willing to pay it (and someone is) then that’s the fair rate.

 

[KevinRedkey]

He could get 13+, so that. If someone is willing to pay it (and someone is) then that’s the fair rate.

You missed the point if you think the thread is about how much money he can milk out of the highest bidder.

 

[TheDawnOfANewTage]

You missed the point if you think the thread is about how much money he can milk out of the highest bidder.

But that’s kinda my point- there is no “fair” price, there’s the highest bid, any possible discount he’ll take, and that’s all that’s relevant. Ya, compared to other top guys he slots in somewhere, but those numbers creep upwards every year- freezing them at a point and saying “where’s he belong?” just ignores that aspect. Nobody but McD is the best, so no one should outearn him until his next contract goes up? Is that the logic? Pah. A fie on such silliness. Pay the mustache man.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

He could get 13+, so that. If someone is willing to pay it (and someone is) then that’s the fair rate.

Disagree with this type of argument because then that's saying that Lucic was worth $6 million per year because someone was willing to pay it and that Tavares is currently worth his $11 million per year because someone was willing to pay MORE than that (rumored San Jose).

 

[zar]

Depends which team he is signing with.

Based on market, I’d say between $11.5-$12.5, and about a mill less if he’s signing with one of the no state tax teams.

 

[bobholly39]

Out of the options its definitely 12.6+

Could he theoretically settle for less? Sure maybe - but even at 13M its fair.

 

[ottawa]

He's the Leafs best player, they should lock him up for 5 x 14m imo

 

[socko]

Are we getting the Hart trophy Matthews or the guy from last year? That's the thing with Matthews, he'll only remember the Hart trophy guy at the negotiating table. The bad news for him and his greedy teammates is that Dubas is gone.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

I would argue that every player listed in OP is underpaid by a bit so I still think Matthews at the highest cap hit is "fair". Definitely not ideal, and complicated by the fact that all of Toronto's big players are up for pay raises, but in a vacuum I think a team can succeed with Matthews at ~$13mil+. It would be one of the worst deals for an all-star player, though.

 

[BLNY]

The same 14.64% of the cap at signing of his current deal. That's $12.22 million. The poll considers that a raise, but it's really just maintaining his current standing.

 

[KevinRedkey]

FWIW I can see very valid arguments for anything between 12.000 and 13.900, but I think 12.400 is what I land on untilmately so I voted just under McD/MacK.

Lower than 12.000 and I think it's too favorable to the Leafs. Over 13.900 and that's higher than MacKinnon's cap% for next year's salary cap and I dont think Matthews deserves more than that. Especially seeing as MacK had to win a cup to get that.

 

[TheDawnOfANewTage]

Disagree with this type of argument because then that's saying that Lucic was worth $6 million per year because someone was willing to pay it and that Tavares is currently worth his $11 million per year because someone was willing to pay MORE than that (rumored San Jose).

Eh, it becomes semantics at a point, but you’re basically saying 13.5 mil would be an overpay, right? I’m saying it’s what should be expected, and whether he performs to that level is to be seen. I’d give it a 25%-50% chance of being close to worth it, but a team will likely take that chance, so.. *shrug*.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Eh, it becomes semantics at a point, but you’re basically saying 13.5 mil would be an overpay, right? I’m saying it’s what should be expected, and whether he performs to that level is to be seen. I’d give it a 25%-50% chance of being close to worth it, but a team will likely take that chance, so.. *shrug*.

On a 5 year term, yes, I think $13.5 is overpay because he's not the best player in hockey by a $1 million. If he only wants 5 years, he should be below the top salaries.

Even on an 8 year term I think it's still high (for him), but at least it makes more sense given the number of FA years it's buying. But on a 5 year deal it's a vast overpay considering his performance (particularly when it matters).

 

[BKarchitect]

Highest paid player. There’s no reason he shouldn’t reset the market. The idea that he can’t make more than McD or MacK because of some honorable notion of the purity of the best player making the most money and thus you can’t or shouldn’t make more on your newer deal is laughable.

Patrick Mahomes is now like the 7th highest paid QB in AAV and by guaranteed money. Justin Herbert isn’t the best QB in football - he’s probably fairly equivalent to AM’s standing - and yet NFL fans seem to have a much better grasp of how contracts and a raising cap work. Nobody is screaming that it’s not right or that Herbert is overpaid.

It’s not just the NHL marketing that is outdated. I’d say the NHL has by far the highest percentage of fans who can’t wrap their heads around the modern financial landscape of professional athletics.

 

[SensontheRush]

MacK signed his contract extension just last year (they were probably expecting the Cap bump to happen at the end of this year), and he is the better player.

Makes no sense for Matthews to get more.

 

[dirtydanglez]

fair would be $12m to $12.5 x 8.

 

[Maplebeasts]

Which of McDavid, Mackinnon, Draisaitl, Kucherov, Tkachuk, Makar (just to name a few) is he better than?

Tkachuk? LMFAO get out of here.

 

[Mighty Makar]

I’m glad we got Nate for 8 years at $12.6M per.