What would you trade Larkin for... a thought exercise

[SantosHalper]

Am I off here or would this make sense for both sides?

I'd say you're off. They ain't trading Fantilli, goal for everyone is to be perennial contender.
Late 1st+Sillinger+Del Bel Belluz more realistic.

Wings will lose Larkin trade. Hopefully it doesn't happen.

 

[JohanFranzenstein]

Verbeek says Anaheim will make the playoffs next season. Larkin could be the piece they're missing, something around

Larkin for McTavish?

 

[ElProfessor]

If Larkin came to you tomorrow demanding an immediate trade, what specifically would you realistically hope to get in return for him?

Picks. 1st Rd picks. At least 2. Given how Yzerman has drafted in the 1st rd……..in terms of return……..that’s statistically the highest return we’re going to get.

I’d want about the same for DeBrincat. Though maybe from a better team with lower picks.

We’re still 4yrs away from being SC contenders. Larkin at 34 and DeBrincat (if we resign him) at 33 are going to be 3rd liners by then. Move them now. Make Seider the old end of the core.

 

[izlez]

We’re still 4yrs away from being SC contenders. Larkin at 34 and DeBrincat (if we resign him) at 33 are going to be 3rd liners by then. Move them now. Make Seider the old end of the core.

You don't have to exaggerate basic math

 

[ElProfessor]

You don't have to exaggerate basic math

What is exaggerated?

 

[izlez]

What is exaggerated?

Larkin is 28. 28 + 4 =/= 34

Stretching it to the last day of the Stanley Cup finals 4 seasons from now, he is still not 34

same applies to Debrincat

 

[ElProfessor]

Larkin is 28. 28 + 4 =/= 34

Stretching it to the last day of the Stanley Cup finals 4 seasons from now, he is still not 34

View attachment 1020962

same applies to Debrincat

He’s 29 next season, 1
30 the next, 2
31 the next, 3
32 the next, 4
33 the next — 4yrs away ~ from being a CONTENDER

34 and older through our SC window, if we’re going to have one.

Thanks.

 

[Henkka]

We’re still 4yrs away from being SC contenders. Larkin at 34 and DeBrincat (if we resign him) at 33 are going to be 3rd liners by then. Move them now. Make Seider the old end of the core.

Larkin is older yeah then. But if we'll rise to Stanley Cup Champions, it means some other Center has overlapped Larkin as the 1st line Center. 34-year-old Larkin as a 2nd line Center is just fine. Just like Yzerman was fine 1997. Because we had Fedorov.

Steven Stamkos wasn't a 1st line center for Tampa after 2017-18 season anymore. Brayden Point overlapped him and Stamkos became a winger. They had Point-Cirelli-Gourde-Johnson center core when they did won at 2020.

We should not hang ourselves for the thought that Larkin has to be this and that. He is fine as a Captain and as a single individual. Our other prospects has to pan out and/or Yzerman has to find a trade fit on the team. The depth finally wins Championships.

 

[izlez]

He’s 29 next season, 1
30 the next, 2
31 the next, 3
32 the next, 4
33 the next — 4yrs away ~ from being a CONTENDER

34 and older through our SC window, if we’re going to have one.

Thanks.

1
2
3
4
4 (and he's still only 33)

I'm starting to understand why so many people on HFBoards start to worry about a player being too old when they turn 24

 

[Pavels Dog]

Larkin is older yeah then. But if we'll rise to Stanley Cup Champions, it means some other Center has overlapped Larkin as the 1st line Center. 34-year-old Larkin as a 2nd line Center is just fine. Just like Yzerman was fine 1997. Because we had Fedorov.

Steven Stamkos wasn't a 1st line center for Tampa after 2017-18 season anymore. Brayden Point overlapped him and Stamkos became a winger. They had Point-Cirelli-Gourde-Johnson center core when they did won at 2020.

We should not hang ourselves for the thought that Larkin has to be this and that. He is fine as a Captain and as a single individual. Our other prospects has to pan out and/or Yzerman has to find a trade fit on the team. The depth finally wins Championships.

Last 25GP

Center A: 6 goals, 11 assists, 17 points, -13
Center B: 9 goals, 6 assists, 15 points, +9

Some people want to pretend the entire rebuild has to be dedicated to maxing out the prime of Center A, and that we have no potential replacements to him if he declines.

 

[wingsfannnn9191]

Verbeek says Anaheim will make the playoffs next season. Larkin could be the piece they're missing, something around

Larkin for McTavish?

I doubt veerbeek does it. Would have done it for byfield when ppl had questions on him .... now what can we get for larkin? Firsts and meh prospects ? Maybe we can flip hem for a better asset but I think we’re stuck with larkin for now

Doubt a team like Utah would trade iginla or a will smith etc.. maybe we can get Marco Rossi but we don’t want a 5’8 #1 c

 

[ElProfessor]

Larkin is older yeah then. But if we'll rise to Stanley Cup Champions, it means some other Center has overlapped Larkin as the 1st line Center. 34-year-old Larkin as a 2nd line Center is just fine. Just like Yzerman was fine 1997. Because we had Fedorov.

Steven Stamkos wasn't a 1st line center for Tampa after 2017-18 season anymore. Brayden Point overlapped him and Stamkos became a winger. They had Point-Cirelli-Gourde-Johnson center core when they did won at 2020.

We should not hang ourselves for the thought that Larkin has to be this and that. He is fine as a Captain and as a single individual. Our other prospects has to pan out and/or Yzerman has to find a trade fit on the team. The depth finally wins Championships.

Exactly. But we don’t have Fedorov, or a Point to overtake Larkin. We have two Larkin Jr.’s. We need more high-end (young) talent. Which is why we should trade Larkin and Cat now while we could probably get two 1sts for each.

 

[Henkka]

Pretty good boy...

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Pretty good boy...

View attachment 1021593

We need better defensive metrics. Larkin’s two-way play is not very good. Certainly not 25th percentile good. Great at faceoffs. Great hustle, but my god is he unable to track his man or shut down passing lanes in the defensive zone.

 

[Frk It]

I don’t think Larkin is Selke level good defensively or anything like that, but I don’t buy into this recent narrative that has popped up on this board that Larkin is “bad defensively” at all.

Middle ground, folks…. Middle ground.

 

[dragonballgtz]

Larkin is older yeah then. But if we'll rise to Stanley Cup Champions, it means some other Center has overlapped Larkin as the 1st line Center. 34-year-old Larkin as a 2nd line Center is just fine. Just like Yzerman was fine 1997. Because we had Fedorov.

Steven Stamkos wasn't a 1st line center for Tampa after 2017-18 season anymore. Brayden Point overlapped him and Stamkos became a winger. They had Point-Cirelli-Gourde-Johnson center core when they did won at 2020.

We should not hang ourselves for the thought that Larkin has to be this and that. He is fine as a Captain and as a single individual. Our other prospects has to pan out and/or Yzerman has to find a trade fit on the team. The depth finally wins Championships.

Huge difference between Larkin and those two players. They're a tier, Yzerman two, above what Larkin is. If anything Larkin would be a Primeau, a center you trade to get your missing piece.

I'm not sure about Larkins leadership as well. Maybe he looks more confident when the cameras are not on. But when they're on he looks and sounds depressed.

 

[Henkka]

And these guys are going to be overpaid, over-the-hill 3rd liners FOR our sc-competitive window.

Quite sure Larkin will never be overpaid.

Cap is going up like hell.

Relatively, his caphit is going down against the growing cap.

When signing against the 83.5M cap, Larkin's 8.7M was 10.4% of the team payroll. At season 2030-31, it's probably only 6.6%.

10.4% is what 1st liners earn and 6.6% is what 2nd liners earn. So everything goes perfectly, if he will regress to 2nd liner at the end of the contract.

Season 2023-24, 83.5M
Season 2024-25, 88.0M
Season 2025-26, 95.5M (3rd season of Larkin's contract)
Season 2026-27, 104.0M (confirmed number)
Season 2027-28, 113.5M (confirmed)
Season 2028-29, 119.2M (estimated number, 5% growth)
Season 2029-30, 125.2M (estimated)
Season 2030-31, 131.4M (last year of Larkin's contract)
Season 2031-32, 138.0M (estimated)

He'll sign his next contract against 138M estimated salary cap. Used 5% yearly growth for those estimations, which isn't maybe enough versus reality.

 

[izlez]

The more I think about it…. There’s just nothing about keeping Larkin and DeBrincat that makes any sense at all.

They both have 3-4 yrs of prime left.

It’s going to take 3-4 yrs for us to get TO our sc-competitive window.

And these guys are going to be overpaid, over-the-hill 3rd liners FOR our sc-competitive window.

Wouldn’t you rather have four 1st Rd picks entering their primes on the team for our SC-window?

*************************

We’d have like $40M in cap space after trading them. It wouldn’t be hard or at all detrimental to get 3-4 solid vets to come here on 3yr overpay contracts and to make the playoffs next season.

lol.

Your creating a hypothetical scenario. Why do you choose specifically to over pay them in your hypothetical? What if you decided to compensate them to what they are worth?

Would this get us 4 first round picks entering their prime? How many 19 year olds are carrying their teams to Stanley Cups? I'd rather have a 30 year old and a 31 year old

 

[Frk It]

The more I think about it…. There’s just nothing about keeping Larkin and DeBrincat that makes any sense at all.

1) They are good hockey players (a few of the best we have currently)
2) They are both from here and seem to enjoy being here
3) You have no idea how they are going to age or decline
4) You are not guaranteed to find replacements for them that are equal or better

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

The more I think about it…. There’s just nothing about keeping Larkin and DeBrincat that makes any sense at all.

They both have 3-4 yrs of prime left.

It’s going to take 3-4 yrs for us to get TO our sc-competitive window.

And these guys are going to be overpaid, over-the-hill 3rd liners FOR our sc-competitive window.

Wouldn’t you rather have four 1st Rd picks entering their primes on the team for our SC-window?

*************************

We’d have like $40M in cap space after trading them. It wouldn’t be hard or at all detrimental to get 3-4 solid vets to come here on 3yr overpay contracts and to make the playoffs next season.

Dude, give it a rest.

Since the 2018 draft these are the players that have scored more than Larkin’s 79 points in a season in 2022-23.

Stutzle
Raymond
Tkachuk
Q. Hughes
Bouchard
J. Hughes

In 7 drafts. 6 players. 2 of them defensemen. Only 2 of them centers.

Second, why the panic? Kasper carried himself admirably when given top 6 minutes. Wyatt Johnston played in the NHL at 20 and had 24 goals and 41 points in his rookie season. Since then he’s been a 30 goal, 60+ point player for Dallas. I think it’s very possible for Kasper to provide those kinds of numbers. Danielson, too.

This season was a setback but not an indictment of Larkin. We know the path forward, as does Yzerman, and there’s no need to panic yet. If he’s aggressive in the offseason I think this team is in a better position to succeed than Ottawa and Montreal in 25-26.

 

[SirloinUB]

Dude, give it a rest.

Since the 2018 draft these are the players that have scored more than Larkin’s 79 points in a season in 2022-23.

Stutzle
Raymond
Tkachuk
Q. Hughes
Bouchard
J. Hughes

In 7 drafts. 6 players. 2 of them defensemen. Only 2 of them centers.

Second, why the panic? Kasper carried himself admirably when given top 6 minutes. Wyatt Johnston played in the NHL at 20 and had 24 goals and 41 points in his rookie season. Since then he’s been a 30 goal, 60+ point player for Dallas. I think it’s very possible for Kasper to provide those kinds of numbers. Danielson, too.

This season was a setback but not an indictment of Larkin. We know the path forward, as does Yzerman, and there’s no need to panic yet. If he’s aggressive in the offseason I think this team is in a better position to succeed than Ottawa and Montreal in 25-26.

Thank you for saying this!

Personally, I was expecting a set back after the off season.

And a setback is okay. Rebuilds never progress linearly, 2 steps forward, followed by 1 back is a pretty normal outcome baring some extreme luck.

Another setback would be where it starts to turn into an issue.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

Thank you for saying this!

Personally, I was expecting a set back after the off season.

And a setback is okay. Rebuilds never progress linearly, 2 steps forward, followed by 1 back is a pretty normal outcome baring some extreme luck.

Another setback would be where it starts to turn into an issue.

@OgeeOgelthorpe called it in the off-season and pre-season. I tried the optimistic argument, ultimately the problems defined by him and I know a few others did us in. I will say I am surprised Tank cannot play left wing at all, I know he isn't what he was but of all the guys that was the one I didn't see coming the way it did.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

@OgeeOgelthorpe called it in the off-season and pre-season. I tried the optimistic argument, ultimately the problems defined by him and I know a few others did us in. I will say I am surprised Tank cannot play left wing at all, I know he isn't what he was but of all the guys that was the one I didn't see coming the way it did.

Do we need to make ‘Ogee was right!’ Signs?

 

[Winger98]

@OgeeOgelthorpe called it in the off-season and pre-season. I tried the optimistic argument, ultimately the problems defined by him and I know a few others did us in. I will say I am surprised Tank cannot play left wing at all, I know he isn't what he was but of all the guys that was the one I didn't see coming the way it did.

Florida fans were pretty emphatic about his inability to play left wing. I get why we tried him there, but I don't get why Lalonde refused to move off it despite it clearly not working. I defended him as much as I could, but he just buried us this year.

 

[Luceni]

Dude, give it a rest.

Since the 2018 draft these are the players that have scored more than Larkin’s 79 points in a season in 2022-23.

Stutzle
Raymond
Tkachuk
Q. Hughes
Bouchard
J. Hughes

In 7 drafts. 6 players. 2 of them defensemen. Only 2 of them centers.

Second, why the panic? Kasper carried himself admirably when given top 6 minutes. Wyatt Johnston played in the NHL at 20 and had 24 goals and 41 points in his rookie season. Since then he’s been a 30 goal, 60+ point player for Dallas. I think it’s very possible for Kasper to provide those kinds of numbers. Danielson, too.

This season was a setback but not an indictment of Larkin. We know the path forward, as does Yzerman, and there’s no need to panic yet. If he’s aggressive in the offseason I think this team is in a better position to succeed than Ottawa and Montreal in 25-26.

I think it's fine to discuss a Larkin trade. But I just wanna hit the brakes on Kasper an Danielsson. Assuming that both of them gonna hit 70pt seasons is a bit of much optimism for my taste.

I'm gonna be really happy if Danielson has a similar Rookie campaign next year than Kasper's had this season. If Kasper scores 25g 25a (50p) in his sophmore year, I'm gonna be very happy as well.

I get it that the expections are rising but at the moment Larkin is still the better and more proven player than Kasper and Danielson and it's not even certain that one of them (Kasper & Danielsson) will ever hit the 70pt range.

So in my book, Larkin is a keeper today until one of detroits young guns can prove that they're able to score on a similar rate for a full season. Then Larkin would become expandable but this scenario is still 2 seasons away I guess.