Value of: What would Calgary Flames offer for the Sens 7th pick?

[RasmusAndersson]

If your view is "how likely is the player to be as good as *insert veteran*" you are going to consistently undervalue picks.

The real question you should be asking is "how likely is the player we take at 7th overall to provide more value at 3 years x 950k +4 years of RFA control than 2 years of Rasmus Andersson at 4.2 mill"

If we value rasmus andersson generously as a 10 million dollar player, that is 10.9 million dollars in surplus value.

I think I posted the list a while back, but significantly more than half of those guys from picks 6-8 produced better value than that through their ELC+RFA control, some stratosphere's above

If you had to estimate the surplus value provided by picks 6-8 from 2010-2019, I can guarantee you it would be more than 327 mill. Heck just Matthew Tkachuk & Quinn Hughes probably get you 50% of the way there on their own.

Theyll cost about 150 mill total for a combined 23 years. I can tell you without a doubt if I could go back in time and offer rookie quinn hughes to a
9 year 130 mill deal I'd do it in a heartbeat, and rookie tkachuk to a 14 year, 180 million dollar deal effortlessly.


7th overall picks are not magic beans. They are incredibly valuable, high hit rate assets and one of the only ways to get a cost controlled superstar.

You’re just making all these assumptions in your valuation that makes it completely misleading. You’re assuming Rasmus Andersson will leave after two years and then not accounting for the very real chance (maybe 25%) that any prospect drafted at #7 busts.

The value is much closer than you’re giving credit for, but even then I acknowledge that you should first target someone with more term than Rasmus.

i just think that this mindset that you can’t trade the pick because your last two trades went poorly is misguided and I think Ottawa might be better off moving that pick (or another valuable asset) for a legit #2 RHD or a starting goalie. Sure they won’t become a cup favorite, but the 7th overall pick definitely isn’t making them a cup favorite in the next 3 years either. Just comes down to if you wanna try to compete while your young core is still relatively young. Otherwise, what do you suggest for Ottawa to become a contender? Keep drafting and pushing the contention window down the road?

 

[GeeoffBrown]

I've heard this draft is a "top 10" type of draft, so personally I'm comfortable sticking at 9. Obviously, Iginla to Calgary would be fun but the Flames are asset poor and so every asset is crucial. Flames have needs at every position.

 

[KevinRedkey]

Weegar and Markstrom
for
Chychrun, Korpisalo, and 7th overall

I like that as a framework even though it needs to be adjusted with add-ons.

 

[dgibb10]

You’re just making all these assumptions in your valuation that makes it completely misleading. You’re assuming Rasmus Andersson will leave after two years and then not accounting for the very real chance (maybe 25%) that any prospect drafted at #7 busts.

The value is much closer than you’re giving credit for, but even then I acknowledge that you should first target someone with more term than Rasmus.

i just think that this mindset that you can’t trade the pick because your last two trades went poorly is misguided and I think Ottawa might be better off moving that pick (or another valuable asset) for a legit #2 RHD or a starting goalie. Sure they won’t become a cup favorite, but the 7th overall pick definitely isn’t making them a cup favorite in the next 3 years either. Just comes down to if you wanna try to compete while your young core is still relatively young. Otherwise, what do you suggest for Ottawa to become a contender? Keep drafting and pushing the contention window down the road?

Rasmus Andersson has 2 years of control. That is an objective fact. Valuing a player higher because he MIGHT want to sign with you again after his contract expires (Not even allowed to negotiate with him for another year) would be incredibly stupid.

For a team like ottawa, yes 100% you keep drafting and developing. Don't rush it or you're just gonna end up in the exact same part. Now, they've made this EXACT mistake of trying to rush it twice now, and it's probably set them back years.

Draft a dman 7th overall, move Chychrun, build out a younger and better bottom 6.

They're in a tough spot with Korpi since they should really not be paying to dump players, so will likely have to just play it out for this year and hope he returns to form.

Those are the issues. The bottom 6, RD, and goalie. They do not have the prospect core or cap situation to really fix all of these issues at once and make themselves a contender, so just gonna have to be patient.

Maybe look for some cheap gambles on a RD, like a Justin Barron or something.

If your view is "how can we turn ottawa into a cup contender in 3 years", you're going to f*** them over for the next decade.

 

[CanadienShark]

Not really. Our biggest issue is Huberdeau and there's no solving that. Our second biggest issue is we have no core except perhaps Wolf. That's at least a 4 year project to solve.

I said some issues. Huge slam dunk win of a trade for Calgary.

 

[RasmusAndersson]

Rasmus Andersson has 2 years of control. That is an objective fact. Valuing a player higher because he MIGHT want to sign with you again after his contract expires (Not even allowed to negotiate with him for another year) would be incredibly stupid.

No, what’s incredibly stupid is projecting a 7th overall pick to for sure provide more value than a current top-pairing RD who is 27 on a great contract for two more years. Rasmus would be the best RHD you’ve had since EK65, and your #7 pick could easily be Haydn Fleury or Dumba or Lias Andersson. Or it could be the next Quinn Hughes. The point is, if you’re trying to project surplus value of Andersson vs. 7th overall pick, you’d have to account for the ~50% risk that the #7 pick provides little to no value for your franchise. Failing to do that is incredibly stupid lol.

However, as I’ve said, I understand why you wouldn’t move the pick for Rasmus with two years left. But if Rasmus had 4 years left, or if there’s a guy like Rasmus with 4 years left, I would definitely make that move. If I were the Sens GM I’d definitely keep all options on the table and consider moving the pick for the right return.

For a team like ottawa, yes 100% you keep drafting and developing. Don't rush it or you're just gonna end up in the exact same part. Now, they've made this EXACT mistake of trying to rush it twice now, and it's probably set them back years.

Draft a dman 7th overall, move Chychrun, build out a younger and better bottom 6.

They're in a tough spot with Korpi since they should really not be paying to dump players, so will likely have to just play it out for this year and hope he returns to form.

Those are the issues. The bottom 6, RD, and goalie. They do not have the prospect core or cap situation to really fix all of these issues at once and make themselves a contender, so just gonna have to be patient.

Maybe look for some cheap gambles on a RD, like a Justin Barron or something.

If your view is "how can we turn ottawa into a cup contender in 3 years", you're going to f*** them over for the next decade.

Completely disagree that the Sens are ’just gonna have to be patient.’ That’s the perfect recipe to lose the faith and buy-in of your young core. Imagine Staios telling Brady Tkachuk that your plan for this summer is to target Justin Barron and run it back lol. And then telling him that again every summer for the next 3 years. Big changes are necessary to keep that core intact, or else you’ll end up just like the Flames with all their good players fleeing at their first chance.

You’re just confusing two bad trades with the concept that all trades of picks for players are bad. Just gotta target the right player this time

 

[dgibb10]

No, what’s incredibly stupid is projecting a 7th overall pick to for sure provide more value than a current top-pairing RD who is 27 on a great contract for two more years. Rasmus would be the best RHD you’ve had since EK65, and your #7 pick could easily be Haydn Fleury or Dumba or Lias Andersson. Or it could be the next Quinn Hughes. The point is, if you’re trying to project surplus value of Andersson vs. 7th overall pick, you’d have to account for the ~50% risk that the #7 pick provides little to no value for your franchise. Failing to do that is incredibly stupid lol.

However, as I’ve said, I understand why you wouldn’t move the pick for Rasmus with two years left. But if Rasmus had 4 years left, or if there’s a guy like Rasmus with 4 years left, I would definitely make that move. If I were the Sens GM I’d definitely keep all options on the table and consider moving the pick for the right return.


Completely disagree that the Sens are ’just gonna have to be patient.’ That’s the perfect recipe to lose the faith and buy-in of your young core. Imagine Staios telling Brady Tkachuk that your plan for this summer is to target Justin Barron and run it back lol. And then telling him that again every summer for the next 3 years. Big changes are necessary to keep that core intact, or else you’ll end up just like the Flames with all their good players fleeing at their first chance.

You’re just confusing two bad trades with the concept that all trades of picks for players are bad. Just gotta target the right player this time

I have never said that 7th overall would be a guarantee to be more value

But the VAST value of a high end outcome like a Hughes Seider Cozens Tkachuk Keller Werenski Nylander Monahan Zibenejad Scheifele Coutourier (this is 37% of picks 6-8 from 2010-2019)

Or even the great value from a mid end outcome like a Middlestadt Zacha Provorov Nurse Risto Lindholm Dumba Skinner

on even the quality valued provided by low tier outcomes like Connolly Virtanen Zadina Boqvist Glass

On a 900k ELC+4 years of RFA control, significantly outweighs the value that 2 years of Andersson provides, especially for a non playoff team.

Nylander, Hughes, Seider, Tkachuk, Keller and Werenski alone make up enough value that the expected value of the pick would be higher than the value of andersson, let alone all the other players.

 

[RasmusAndersson]

I have never said that 7th overall would be a guarantee to be more value

But the VAST value of a high end outcome like a Hughes Seider Cozens Tkachuk Keller Werenski Nylander Monahan Zibenejad Scheifele Coutourier (this is 37% of picks 6-8 from 2010-2019)

Or even the great value from a mid end outcome like a Middlestadt Zacha Provorov Nurse Risto Lindholm Dumba Skinner

on even the quality valued provided by low tier outcomes like Connolly Virtanen Zadina Boqvist Glass

On a 900k ELC+4 years of RFA control, significantly outweighs the value that 2 years of Andersson provides, especially for a non playoff team.

Nylander, Hughes, Seider, Tkachuk, Keller and Werenski alone make up enough value that the expected value of the pick would be higher than the value of andersson, let alone all the other players.

Ya for like the 10th time if I were the Sens I wouldn’t trade the 7th for Rasmus either because 2 years of control is too risky. But it’s much closer than you make it seem because of the potential bust factor for any prospect. Think about Buffalo and Arizona stockpiling these early/mid firsts but never being able to take the next step because 30-50% of the prospects bust and they haven’t surrounded their young talent with the right supporting cast.

All I’m saying is that the 7th overall pick should be on the table for the right player with term. That’s it lol. But imo your mindset is so clouded by the two bad trades that you automatically overvalue picks and think patience is the way to go, when in reality the right pick-for-RHD or pick-for-goalie trade could be exactly what lifts the Sens into the playoffs for the next 3 years.

 

[Haatley]

When you're moving up in the top 10 range, the price can definitely be that high.

No way in hell I'd accept a 2nd round pick to move out of the top 7.

Generally the cost of moving uo a couple of spots in the top ten of the NHL draft is an early 2nd.

This year from 3-15 is a crapshoot.

Please tell me why you think it would cost more than that to move up TWO spots.

 

[TkachukNorris79]

Lots of talk in here about something around 7th overall + Korpisalo for Markstrom.

There's about a 0.01% chance of that trade happening for a few different reasons:

1) Ottawa traded 2022 7th overall and 2023 12th overall for Chychrun. Trading three Top-12 picks in a row while not making the playoffs is fireable.

2) Markstrom is 34 with 2 years left on his deal, and honestly hasn't been phenomenal by any means the past couple of years. Who the hell moves 7th overall for 2 years of an older, over-the-hill goalie?

3) Markstrom will not waive for Ottawa.

4) While Korpisalo contract is brutal, it is very buyout friendly. They can even retain a mil and someone would take him. Probably bounces back a bit this year too.

It's not happening... And I think a lot of Flames fans in here need to lower their expectations on a potential Markstrom return. There are multiple other options around the league that are better, younger and cheaper. And only once or twice has a Top 10 pick been moved for a goalie, let alone an old one.

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

Yeah Sanderson is definitely going to be THE cornerstone to their D corps moving forward. With the draft I can see Dickinson or Yakemchuk being solid adds. Parekh to me strikes me as another Chabot type

Personally I'd rather draft a stud forward with 7th and go for one of emery or Erick with 25th.

 

[MTL Dirty Birdy]

Personally I'd rather draft a stud forward with 7th and go for one of emery or Erick with 25th.

Who do like at 7? And Emery will be solid!

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

Who do like at 7? And Emery will be solid!

Iginla Catton and Helenius

 

[GeauxPreds1]

Would Ottawa do
Saros
Tomasino
22nd
For
Chychurn
Korpisalo
7th

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

Would Ottawa do
Saros
Tomasino
22nd
For
Chychurn
Korpisalo
7th

If saros agreed to an extension yes.

 

[GeauxPreds1]

If saros agreed to an extension yes.

Agreed a deal would have to be in place

 

[MTL Dirty Birdy]

Iginla Catton and Helenius

Ottawa needs center depth with Norris injury history. Helenius isn’t the most skilled of the three but is the most probable center at the NHl level. Should prove to be interesting to see who they go with