RasmusAndersson
Registered User
- Oct 19, 2013
- 2,538
- 834
You’re just making all these assumptions in your valuation that makes it completely misleading. You’re assuming Rasmus Andersson will leave after two years and then not accounting for the very real chance (maybe 25%) that any prospect drafted at #7 busts.If your view is "how likely is the player to be as good as *insert veteran*" you are going to consistently undervalue picks.
The real question you should be asking is "how likely is the player we take at 7th overall to provide more value at 3 years x 950k +4 years of RFA control than 2 years of Rasmus Andersson at 4.2 mill"
If we value rasmus andersson generously as a 10 million dollar player, that is 10.9 million dollars in surplus value.
I think I posted the list a while back, but significantly more than half of those guys from picks 6-8 produced better value than that through their ELC+RFA control, some stratosphere's above
If you had to estimate the surplus value provided by picks 6-8 from 2010-2019, I can guarantee you it would be more than 327 mill. Heck just Matthew Tkachuk & Quinn Hughes probably get you 50% of the way there on their own.
Theyll cost about 150 mill total for a combined 23 years. I can tell you without a doubt if I could go back in time and offer rookie quinn hughes to a
9 year 130 mill deal I'd do it in a heartbeat, and rookie tkachuk to a 14 year, 180 million dollar deal effortlessly.
7th overall picks are not magic beans. They are incredibly valuable, high hit rate assets and one of the only ways to get a cost controlled superstar.
The value is much closer than you’re giving credit for, but even then I acknowledge that you should first target someone with more term than Rasmus.
i just think that this mindset that you can’t trade the pick because your last two trades went poorly is misguided and I think Ottawa might be better off moving that pick (or another valuable asset) for a legit #2 RHD or a starting goalie. Sure they won’t become a cup favorite, but the 7th overall pick definitely isn’t making them a cup favorite in the next 3 years either. Just comes down to if you wanna try to compete while your young core is still relatively young. Otherwise, what do you suggest for Ottawa to become a contender? Keep drafting and pushing the contention window down the road?