Value of: What would Calgary Flames offer for the Sens 7th pick?

[dgibb10]

READ the posts. I'm not trying to denigrate Hughes. I'm saying Jfresh cards are dumb dumb analytics. He's making the argument Nurse, Ristolainen and Dumba are high end defensemen and attempting to use JFresh cards to do it. I'm pointing out JFresh cards aren't real analytics. They are entertainment for people who don't understand statistical analysis.

He's a Devils fan so I'm using Hughes to do it. It's from his 2nd year btw. If he was a Rags fan I'd use Schneider. If he was a Canucks fan I'd use EP40 ect.

Except those analytic cards are accurate because jack hughes DID suck as a rookie. Are you suggesting rookie jack hughes was a valuable NHLer? because he certainly wasn't.

Its not from his second year. Because it says 15 minutes TOI. he played 18 minutes a night his second year and his card looked like this

 

[dgibb10]

Did I say you were trying to shit on hughes?
Im trying to figure out why you used that particular player card to make your point. Did Jack Hughes have a good rookie season? He cited jack hughes last 3 seasons so you decide that using a player card from 5 years ago to make your point is the way to go, when he objectively had a bad season.

You want to shit on Jfresh give examples that prove your point.

Also the Jfresh analytic cards are not kind to Risto and Nurse at ALL. So I don't know what point he was trying to make.

Analytics are not a be all end all. They are pieces of a puzzle you can put together if you actually understand what they were trying to say.

But when he doesn't understand what it's trying to say, such as thinking the TOI section is the Jfresh card saying how good the player is, when in reality it's just a role estimation, I understand how he may be misled.

For example Jack Hughes card from his 2nd year. It says 16% overall war, but if you actually understand what goes into it, you'd know thatit's being absolutely tanked by the fact that his finishing was awful (he shot something like 5% that year). And yeah, you aren't providing much value shooting 5%. But you could easily predict he wouldn't shoot 5% forever, as what actually happened, that shooting came around to a normal rate as he developed. The same way a player shooting 25% will have a very inflated WAR, likely to come down as that shooting regresses

There is a difference between predictive analytics and descriptive analytics, which some people struggle to understand.

 

[dgibb10]

READ the posts. I'm not trying to denigrate Hughes. I'm saying Jfresh cards are dumb dumb analytics. He's making the argument Nurse, Ristolainen and Dumba are high end defensemen and attempting to use JFresh cards to do it. I'm pointing out JFresh cards aren't real analytics. They are entertainment for people who don't understand statistical analysis.

He's a Devils fan so I'm using Hughes to do it. It's from his 2nd year btw. If he was a Rags fan I'd use Schneider. If he was a Canucks fan I'd use EP40 ect.

Ristolainen was an objectively very valuable asset.

getting a guy to play 24 minutes a night for you for 8 years at 3.7 mill AAV and then being able to trade him for 14th+2nd round pick+Hagg.

Great outcome.

 

[Golden_Jet]

All studs are top 3/6 players.

So 11 studs (top row)
19 top 3D/top 6 forwards (top 2 rows)

Ahh ok should have mentioned that key part.
Maybe fix it up, or the wording, as not jiving with what your saying then.

There is only 6 names in top row, not 11, guess your counting top 2 rows for studs?

Top 3 rows have 17 names total
Top row plus next 2 rows

First row 6 names
Second row 5 names
Third row 6 names.


Edit: see I wasn’t the only one confused by wording.

 

[dgibb10]

Ahh ok should have mentioned that key part.
Maybe fix it up, or the wording, as not jiving with what your saying then.

There is only 6 names in top row, not 11, guess your counting top 2 rows for studs?

Top 3 rows have 17 names total
Top row plus next 2 rows

First row 6 names
Second row 5 names
Third row 6 names.


Edit: see I wasn’t the only one confused by wording.

Oh shit I guess it didn't format the way I wanted it to on everyones different screens. My bad, this is how i had it set up. First row ends after Coots, second row after skinner, 3rd row after Zadina.

Also unfortunate with how it setup and 37 and 63 being perfectly fit into 100 (11+19=30) causing more confusion

Edited for some more clarity

 

[DingDongCharlie]

You think Calgary would trade 9+Markstrom for 7+Korpisalo?

That's horrible for Calgary.

I never saw anything to imply that included 9ov....

7ov + Korpisalo (camp dump) for Markstrom is pretty close.

Maybe Calgary adds something small like a 3rd round pick, certainly not 9ov or even 28th. Would be tough for a team to give up a top 10 pick to address goaltending, we just rarely see things like that. If Ottawa wants to push for a playoff spot they should look at this.

 

[dgibb10]

I never saw anything to imply that included 9ov....

7ov + Korpisalo (camp dump) for Markstrom is pretty close.

Maybe Calgary adds something small like 2/3rd round pick, certainly not 9ov or even 28th.

It really isn't.

Korpi probably costs a late 1st to dump, let's say he costs 25th overall to dump.

That would be valuing unretained markstrom at 13th overall, which is utter ridiculousness.

Trading 13th overall for a 35 year old goalie making 6 mill (who has been bad in 2 of the last 4 years) would be lunacy. Even 50% retained it would be stupid.

 

[Digitalbooya]

It really isn't.

Korpi probably costs a late 1st to dump, let's say he costs 25th overall to dump.

That would be valuing unretained markstrom at 13th overall, which is utter ridiculousness.

Trading 13th overall for a 35 year old goalie making 6 mill (who has been bad in 2 of the last 4 years) would be lunacy. Even 50% retained it would be stupid.

Speaking as a fan of the team with the 13th overall pick and sort of a goaltending problem (more MAF than Gus), I would not even consider trading that pick for Markstrom. Markstrom should pull a later 1st and that’s about it.

 

[dgibb10]

Speaking as a fan of the team with the 13th overall pick and sort of a goaltending problem (more MAF than Gus), I would not even consider trading that pick for Markstrom. Markstrom should pull a later 1st and that’s about it.

I'd offer 17th overall for markstrom 50% retained at an absolute maximum. Or a lottery protected 2025 1st+2nd

 

[MTL Dirty Birdy]

Sanderson won't win a Norris, but he's the type of defenseman who should. Flat out stud. I'd take him over any Senator and any player in this draft.

Yeah Sanderson is definitely going to be THE cornerstone to their D corps moving forward. With the draft I can see Dickinson or Yakemchuk being solid adds. Parekh to me strikes me as another Chabot type

 

[RasmusAndersson]

The sens giving up 7th overall to go all in with 2 years of Rasmus Andersson would be an absolute disaster, especially when he wouldn't even guarantee them a playoff birth, let alone further success. If they haven't learned to stop this from the Chychrun and Debrincat fiascos I don't know what will teach them

That’s why I said someone like Rasmus Andersson but with more term. My whole point is that the Chychrun and Debrincat trades are sunk costs and it wouldn’t be smart for your GM to go forward refusing to trade picks for the remaining few pieces you need.

If you wanna address goaltending and top-pair RHD, you’re probably gonna have to give up some core pieces. And whether it’s a high pick or a young roster player, everything should be on the table.

And that whole ‘especially when he doesn’t guarantee them a playoff spot’ argument is useless because that could apply to any player or pick. You add players to increase your chances but of course there are no guarantees. Doesn’t mean that all trades involving the 7th overall aren’t worth it

 

[dgibb10]

That’s why I said someone like Rasmus Andersson but with more term. My whole point is that the Chychrun and Debrincat trades are sunk costs and it wouldn’t be smart for your GM to go forward refusing to trade picks for the remaining few pieces you need.

If you wanna address goaltending and top-pair RHD, you’re probably gonna have to give up some core pieces. And whether it’s a high pick or a young roster player, everything should be on the table.

But Ottawa is STILL in the same spot.

They could trade for andersson and still probably would be a 50/50 shot to make the playoffs. Take the top 7 pick, get a top tier dman, and go from there.

But I guess it depends on your goal. I don't see any scenario where Rasmus Andersson for example helps ottawa win a stanley cup. That top 7 pick however, certainly could.

But I guess if your goal is to rush into a wildcard spot and attain mediocrity while setting your future back, sure. But they're tried that twice now and it's backfired both times.

Unfortunately yes, they have wasted 3 high 1sts with Boucher, Chych, and Cat. And that will set them back years. But that doesn't mean you do it again, especially with the pick punishment going.

A trade for Rasmus Andersson is the kind of trade that could send ottawa into another 5 years of rebuilding minimum.

 

[Wondercarrot]

I never saw anything to imply that included 9ov....

7ov + Korpisalo (camp dump) for Markstrom is pretty close.

Maybe Calgary adds something small like a 3rd round pick, certainly not 9ov or even 28th. Would be tough for a team to give up a top 10 pick to address goaltending, we just rarely see things like that. If Ottawa wants to push for a playoff spot they should look at this.

That is f***ing grotesque for Otawa.
They can buy out Korpisalo, the can bury him the minors, or they can dump him with retention.

What they won’t do is trade the 7th overall pick to dump to him while getting 2 years of a 35 year old goalie. I mean come on FFS.

 

[GOilers88]

But Ottawa is STILL in the same spot.

They could trade for andersson and still probably would be a 50/50 shot to make the playoffs. Take the top 7 pick, get a top tier dman, and go from there.

But I guess it depends on your goal. I don't see any scenario where Rasmus Andersson for example helps ottawa win a stanley cup. That top 7 pick however, certainly could.

But I guess if your goal is to rush into a wildcard spot and attain mediocrity while setting your future back, sure. But they're tried that twice now and it's backfired both times.

Unfortunately yes, they have wasted 3 high 1sts with Boucher, Chych, and Cat. And that will set them back years. But that doesn't mean you do it again, especially with the pick punishment going.

A trade for Rasmus Andersson is the kind of trade that could send ottawa into another 5 years of rebuilding minimum.

As an outside observer, looking at the list of players drafted at #7, I think the Sens would be fortunate to get a player as good as Rasmus is now. Seems strange to me to not see Andersson helping a young team looking to take that next step actually take it, but a magic bean years away being a better bet.

Sens have a good core currently, imo. I think adding a guy like RA is a very smart move.

 

[Wondercarrot]

The concept of the Kadri, Andersson, Markstrom deal is a good as it addresses everything Ottawa is looking for in the offseason.

Quality top 4 vet RHD - check
Quality veteran - check
Legit starting goalie - check

It’s too bad it’s not Anderson with 4 more years, and Kadri with 2, and that Markstrom isn’t 3 years younger.
Just can’t justify sending the 7th, 26th and Chychrun for so little term etc.
If I KNEW Andersson would re-sign longterm I would maybe do this or similar - we would then trade Joseph for a pick to make the cap work.

 

[RasmusAndersson]

But Ottawa is STILL in the same spot.

They could trade for andersson and still probably would be a 50/50 shot to make the playoffs. Take the top 7 pick, get a top tier dman, and go from there.

But I guess it depends on your goal. I don't see any scenario where Rasmus Andersson for example helps ottawa win a stanley cup. That top 7 pick however, certainly could.

But I guess if your goal is to rush into a wildcard spot and attain mediocrity while setting your future back, sure. But they're tried that twice now and it's backfired both times.

Unfortunately yes, they have wasted 3 high 1sts with Boucher, Chych, and Cat. And that will set them back years. But that doesn't mean you do it again, especially with the pick punishment going.

A trade for Rasmus Andersson is the kind of trade that could send ottawa into another 5 years of rebuilding minimum.

How do you figure that? Are you just assuming Rasmus automatically leaves after 2 years and that the 7th overall pick turns out to be better than a #2 RHD?

This is classic HFboards valuing magic beans over current top-pairing dmen.

Again, not saying Ramus has to be the target and I understand why the two years remaining might not be worth it. But for a player similar to Rasmus with more term, I think it would be worth it based on the make-up of your team with all the existing young talent. Just my outside opinion tho

 

[dgibb10]

As an outside observer, looking at the list of players drafted at #7, I think the Sens would be fortunate to get a player as good as Rasmus is now. Seems strange to me to not see Andersson helping a young team looking to take that next step actually take it, but a magic bean years away being a better bet.

Sens have a good core currently, imo. I think adding a guy like RA is a very smart move.

If your view is "how likely is the player to be as good as *insert veteran*" you are going to consistently undervalue picks.

The real question you should be asking is "how likely is the player we take at 7th overall to provide more value at 3 years x 950k +4 years of RFA control than 2 years of Rasmus Andersson at 4.2 mill"

If we value rasmus andersson generously as a 10 million dollar player, that is 10.9 million dollars in surplus value.

I think I posted the list a while back, but significantly more than half of those guys from picks 6-8 produced better value than that through their ELC+RFA control, some stratosphere's above

If you had to estimate the surplus value provided by picks 6-8 from 2010-2019, I can guarantee you it would be more than 327 mill. Heck just Matthew Tkachuk & Quinn Hughes probably get you 50% of the way there on their own.

Theyll cost about 150 mill total for a combined 23 years. I can tell you without a doubt if I could go back in time and offer rookie quinn hughes to a
9 year 130 mill deal I'd do it in a heartbeat, and rookie tkachuk to a 14 year, 180 million dollar deal effortlessly.

How do you figure that? Are you just assuming Rasmus automatically leaves after 2 years and that the 7th overall pick turns out to be better than a #2 RHD?

This is classic HFboards valuing magic beans over current top-pairing dmen.

Again, not saying Ramus has to be the target and I understand why the two years remaining might not be worth it. But for a player similar to Rasmus with more term, I think it would be worth it based on the make-up of your team with all the existing young talent. Just my outside opinion tho

7th overall picks are not magic beans. They are incredibly valuable, high hit rate assets and one of the only ways to get a cost controlled superstar.

 

[GOilers88]

If your view is "how likely is the player to be as good as *insert veteran*" you are going to consistently undervalue picks.

The real question you should be asking is "how likely is the player we take at 7th overall to provide more value at 3 years x 950k +4 years of RFA control than 2 years of Rasmus Andersson at 4.2 mill"

If we value rasmus andersson generously as a 10 million dollar player, that is 10.9 million dollars in surplus value.

I think I posted the list a while back, but significantly more than half of those guys from picks 6-8 produced better value than that through their ELC+RFA control, some stratosphere's above

If you had to estimate the surplus value provided by picks 6-8 from 2010-2019, I can guarantee you it would be more than 327 mill. Heck just Matthew Tkachuk & Quinn Hughes probably get you 50% of the way there on their own.

Theyll cost about 150 mill total for a combined 23 years. I can tell you without a doubt if I could go back in time and offer rookie quinn hughes to a
9 year 130 mill deal I'd do it in a heartbeat, and rookie tkachuk to a 14 year, 180 million dollar deal effortlessly.


7th overall picks are not magic beans. They are incredibly valuable, high hit rate assets and one of the only ways to get a cost controlled superstar.

I think the value that a legitimate top pairing, 27 year old defenseman would bring to the Sens over the next few years far outweighs whatever value a draft pick this summer might hopefully provide over the next 10.

I'm also of the opinion draft picks are wildly overvalued on here, so we'll have to agree to disagree.

 

[Golden_Jet]

I never saw anything to imply that included 9ov....

7ov + Korpisalo (camp dump) for Markstrom is pretty close.

Maybe Calgary adds something small like a 3rd round pick, certainly not 9ov or even 28th. Would be tough for a team to give up a top 10 pick to address goaltending, we just rarely see things like that. If Ottawa wants to push for a playoff spot they should look at this.

lol good luck

 

[Double Dion]

The concept of the Kadri, Andersson, Markstrom deal is a good as it addresses everything Ottawa is looking for in the offseason.

Quality top 4 vet RHD - check
Quality veteran - check
Legit starting goalie - check

It’s too bad it’s not Anderson with 4 more years, and Kadri with 2, and that Markstrom isn’t 3 years younger.
Just can’t justify sending the 7th, 26th and Chychrun for so little term etc.
If I KNEW Andersson would re-sign longterm I would maybe do this or similar - we would then trade Joseph for a pick to make the cap work.

It really depends on if the Sens see Andersson extending or not. I'm not sure if he will in Calgary. I know he likes the city, but signing up to lose is not generally something an in demand player does unless you give them the whole bag.

I think Markstroms term is exactly what you'd want it to be. If I was signing him I'd want to do so for 2 to 3 years.

Kadri is longer than you'd want, but it's a good cap hit right now. I'd say we got 8.5ish of value out of him this year. I'd probably only want to sign him to a 2 to 3 year deal. There's 5 left. That's an issue, but it's also why he doesn't have much trade value. If he had only 2 or 3 left we'd get a decent return.

 

[dgibb10]

I think the value that a legitimate top pairing, 27 year old defenseman would bring to the Sens over the next few years far outweighs whatever value a draft pick this summer might hopefully provide over the next 10.

I'm also of the opinion draft picks are wildly overvalued on here, so we'll have to agree to disagree.

Do you think the ottawa senators are legitimate title contenders in the next 2 years with Rasmus Andersson?

Draft picks are not wildly overvalued. Maybe very late 1sts are. High 1sts are in fact very much undervalued.

But here is the full list of times a pick in the top 7 has been traded in the salary cap era

24 year old Alex Debrincat, who had been producing at a 41 goal, 82 point pace.

2008: the islanders made 2 trade downs from 5 to 7 to 9

That is the whole list.

Late 1sts are thrown around like candy. Top 7 picks, not so much.

 

[GOilers88]

Do you think the ottawa senators are legitimate title contenders in the next 2 years with Rasmus Andersson?

Draft picks are not wildly overvalued. Maybe very late 1sts are. High 1sts are in fact very much undervalued.

But here is the full list of times a pick in the top 7 has been traded in the salary cap era

24 year old Alex Debrincat, who had been producing at a 41 goal, 82 point pace.

2008: the islanders made 2 trade downs from 5 to 7 to 9
View attachment 883443

That is the whole list.

Late 1sts are thrown around like candy. Top 7 picks, not so much.

You're assuming Rasmus would only be there for 2 seasons.

I think the value of some success for a young core is far more valuable than a stockpile of draft picks. I think Ottawa is at a point where finding a legitimate goalie and top pairing defenseman would be more beneficial than another top 10 pick.

But again that's just my opinion.

 

[dgibb10]

You're assuming Rasmus would only be there for 2 seasons.

I think the value of some success for a young core is far more valuable than a stockpile of draft picks. I think Ottawa is at a point where finding a legitimate goalie and top pairing defenseman would be more beneficial than another top 10 pick.

But again that's just my opinion.

I assign no value to years that the team has 0 control over. Rasmus Andersson has 2 years on his contract, after which he is an unrestricted free agent. Again, learn your lesson from the Debrincat and Chychrun fiascos.

But hey, if you want, the going rate for UFA rights is about a 5th round pick. So I guess I can chalk that on.


Again, if your goal is to be mediocre for 2 years, sure go right ahead.

I will admit, I think it would be hilarious to see Ottawa once again trade a top pick for a guy only to have to sell him as a rental for half of what they paid for him like a year later

 

[GOilers88]

I assign no value to years that the team has 0 control over. Rasmus Andersson has 2 years on his contract, after which he is an unrestricted free agent.

But hey, if you want, the going rate for UFA rights is about a 5th round pick. So I guess I can chalk that on.


Again, if your goal is to be mediocre for 2 years, sure go right ahead.

You don't like the idea. That's cool.
But the organization clearly thought they were at a point where adding good veteran players to help push the team to the next level was a good idea, and I don't really disagree. If Staios thinks that's where they still currently are, this is the sort of deal I think would be good for the Sens.

 

[dgibb10]

You don't like the idea. That's cool.
But the organization clearly thought they were at a point where adding good veteran players to help push the team to the next level, and I don't really disagree. If Staios thinks that we're they still currently are, this is the sort of deal I think would be good for the Sens.

MAYBE a 50% retained Rasmus you could justify, or if they threw in the vancouver 1st.

But even then, there is really just no reason to trade 7th.

Sell Chychrun, and use those assets+bostons 1st to buy Andersson if you really want to play that game.