What will the long term results of this retool be? (Next 5 years)

[Spektre]

Here’s the list of players here already or on their way over the next 5 years. Net all of the prospects will be on the Blues even if they make the NHL. It never works out for that many prospects on one team.

If you want to add your favorite prospect to the mix, have at it.

Thomas
Kyrou
Buchnevich
Holloway
Bolduc
Stenberg
Snuggerud
Schenn
Dvorsky
Pekarcik
Neighbors
Toropchenko
Jecho
Dean
Kos


Jiricek
Lindstein
Parayko
Kessel
Broberg
Fischer
Ralph


The question remains, what will the end result be?

Also, which option is good enough for this retool to be considered successful?

Click to read more...

 

[Snubbed4Vezina]

Fringe playoff team until they acquire another legit C and top pairing D-man.

 

[CaliforniaBlues310]

We’ll end up in another Cup window if our top prospects hit near or to their potential.

Not even necessarily just because of them, but because we’ll have plenty of cap space and draft/prospect capital to acquire the higher end players to put this roster over the top.

There won’t be room for everyone, and the cap should be spiking up over the next several years. If we think Thomas’ $8.25 mil deal is a steal now…just wait until the cap is over $100 mil.

 

[Davimir Tarablad]

While we don't have a MVP level guy that can consistently take over games, I believe we've got a deep enough of a talent pool stocked that this core can be in that 2nd tier of Cup contenders, but not quite enough to be a Cup favorite.

 

[Robb_K]

Here’s the list of players here already or on their way over the next 5 years. Net all of the prospects will be on the Blues even if they make the NHL. It never works out for that many prospects on one team.

If you want to add your favorite prospect to the mix, have at it.

Thomas
Kyrou
Buchnevich
Holloway
Bolduc
Stenberg
Snuggerud
Schenn
Dvorsky
Pekarcik
Neighbors
Toropchenko
Jecho
Dean
Kos


Jiricek
Lindstein
Parayko
Kessel
Broberg
Fischer
Ralph


The question remains, what will the end result be?

Also, which option is good enough for this retool to be considered successful?

I doubt that Schenn will still be with The Blues 5 years from now. Parayko also may have retired. I would add Robertsson. He has been playing better, improving his game. You've given up on Perunovich? I think a team needs to have become a Stanley Cup contender for several consecutive years to make a retool or rebuild successful. Even when The Blues actually WON The Stanley Cup, they didn't do it with their drafted prospects alone. They added players through trades. They couldn't have won it without O'Reilly and Schenn, and probably re-signing Perron. They'll need to acquire a couple major difference-makers on both offence and defence, that are not among their prospects or current roster. I think their late 1990s and early 2000s teams had higher quality talent than they have now. It was a travesty that those teams never won it.

 

[Reality Czech]

I doubt that Schenn will still be with The Blues 5 years from now. Parayko also may have retired. I would add Robertsson. He has been playing better, improving his game. You've given up on Perunovich? I think a team needs to have become a Stanley Cup contender for several consecutive years to make a retool or rebuild successful. Even whe The Blues actually WON The Stanley Cup, they didn't do it with their drafted prospects alone. The added players through trades. They couldn't have won it without O'Reilly and Schenn, and probably re-signing Perron. They'll need to acquire a couple major difference-makers on both offence and defence, that are not among their prospects or current roster. I think their late 1990s and early 2000s teams had higher quality tsalent than they have now. It was a travesty that those teams never won it.

Good points. Every Stanley Cup winner needs to add talent from outside the organization to win a Cup. The Lightning are probably the team that won with the most drafted talent but they still had McDonagh and other key players that were added from the outside.

So that's why it's pretty much impossible to predict the answer to this question. Is our group of young players good enough to be the core of a contender in a few years? Probably but that could be said of many teams right now. It all depends on who hits and who doesn't and which complimentary players are available in the same time frame.

 

[Majorityof1]

Hard to say as a lot can happen. I voted fringe playoff team but can see any other outcome higher, and less so lower.

People who think we'll be more cite our prospects and cap. The cap is going up for everyone and no objective expert ranks our prospect pool anywhere near the top. Sure if you project every one of our prospects out to their ceiling as determined by a Blues fan looking through Blues-tinted glasses, we'll be amazing. But that is unlikely to happen.

Sure we could sign or trade for amazing players, but we aren't a big free agent market. We are stingy with trade protections and bonuses, are a smaller market and don't like giving term to aging vets. That makes it tough to attract UFAs. Are we trading these prospects we are relying on fir vets to supplement our team?

The bottom line is we lack elite talent and we refuse to tank for it. We could get it by nailing later draft picks, or development of current prospects, or a trade. But that is tough and we are competing with 31 other teams hoping to do the same thing. And many of those teams already have a better young core or prospect pools in place. Plus our GM who everyone thinks walks on water is stepping back leaving a completely unproven guy to finish the job.

To be a contender in 5 years, we'd have to leapfrog 10 teams who are better set-up than we are right now while holding off 10 teams with better prospect pools from leapfrogging us.

 

[BrokenFace]

Didn't vote because it all comes down to how many of the prospects hit and how hard they hit, and I can't predict that. So much changes in 5 years in this league. If Dvo is on Thomas' level and Jiricek turns into a top 10 dman, then we're set. If they end up being middle 6/pairing guys, then we'll be in a scramble to fill 2 massive holes and, if we can't, then it's back to re-whatevering. Of course other prospects or players could fill those roles so it's not all on those 2.

We're currently a team with 3 top 6 forwards and an aging d-core with no #1. We need a couple more really good moves or drafts to convince me we're on the road to long-term contending. There's also a big issue of how many more years can Binner be a difference maker. Last year was his best year since the cup. Will he still be able to deliver at that level in 2 or 3 seasons or will we need to replace him by the time we're contending again?

 

[SirPaste]

I think they will be contenders but not powerhouses, not led by superstars but led by excellent team depth similar to how past Army built teams were. It's hard to say because so much can happen in just a couple years but at some point they are going to need to find a legitimate stud top pairing dman, whether that comes from a prospect already in the org/yet to be drafted or by a big trade/UFA signing we will see but that will be necessary. I think fixing our 2C situation will be a much easier task to accomplish and with some luck we might already have that guy in Dvorsky, but only time will tell. The work is certianly still cut out for Army/Steen to make this happen but they have laid some nice groundwork to do so in the next couple years.

 

[Spektre]

I doubt that Schenn will still be with The Blues 5 years from now. Parayko also may have retired. I would add Robertsson. He has been playing better, improving his game. You've given up on Perunovich? I think a team needs to have become a Stanley Cup contender for several consecutive years to make a retool or rebuild successful. Even when The Blues actually WON The Stanley Cup, they didn't do it with their drafted prospects alone. They added players through trades. They couldn't have won it without O'Reilly and Schenn, and probably re-signing Perron. They'll need to acquire a couple major difference-makers on both offence and defence, that are not among their prospects or current roster. I think their late 1990s and early 2000s teams had higher quality talent than they have now. It was a travesty that those teams never won it.

It’s a given help will come via trades and free agency.

The question is whether the current prospects will be enough to compliment those other mystery moves.

It’s impossible to know the roster next year, let alone in 5 years. Does the prospect pool instill confidence that the team will be a top tier team or one of the other choices.

 

[PocketNines]

It's so weird how important having a 1D anchor is, isn't it

 

[ChicagoBlues]

Stanley Cup Champions!!

 

[Thallis]

Given our current commitment to trying to be a playoff team but lacking the talent to really be one consistently, I see 2 outcomes. The first is that our top prospects hit decently, become middle 6/top 4 guys and we become a middling playoff team without the elite talent to hang with the class of the league. The other is one or more of the guys we're excited about bust, the D ages out and we can't find anyone better to replace them, and the fan base grows tired of 5 years without playoffs and sure do like the sound of that Landon Dupont kid and we commit to the full rebuild 3 or 4 years after we should have.

 

[BleedBlue14]

I think we'll be a pretty consistent playoff team. The issue with putting us more into contender status, is I don't think the Central is going to get any easier anytime soon.

I think we're legitimately one top 6 forward (Preferably center) and one top 4 defenseman (Probably has to lean towards more of a #1/2) from getting to that spot. As great as it is that we have all of these prospects coming up. We realistically don't need more than 2 or 3 of them to hit and be more 2nd line/top 4 guys.

What could push us above is getting a Pietrangelo - Not sure how that happens, but Vegas seemed to get one with just cap space as the asset cost.

 

[Majorityof1]

I think we'll be a pretty consistent playoff team. The issue with putting us more into contender status, is I don't think the Central is going to get any easier anytime soon.

I think we're legitimately one top 6 forward (Preferably center) and one top 4 defenseman (Probably has to lean towards more of a #1/2) from getting to that spot. As great as it is that we have all of these prospects coming up. We realistically don't need more than 2 or 3 of them to hit and be more 2nd line/top 4 guys.

What could push us above is getting a Pietrangelo - Not sure how that happens, but Vegas seemed to get one with just cap space as the asset cost.

We don't have a top 6 now if you count Saad and schenn. As they age out, we need to add one more Top 6C and backfill for them. One more top 6 forward isn't going to cut it.

Vegas got Pietrangelo with cap space, a tax free state, aggressive bonus money and a full NMC. We had the same cap space available and we didn't land that 1D then. Beyond cap space there needs to be a willingness to use it and take risks we are not willing to take.

 

[BleedBlue14]

We don't have a top 6 now if you count Saad and schenn. As they age out, we need to add one more Top 6C and backfill for them. One more top 6 forward isn't going to cut it.

Vegas got Pietrangelo with cap space, a tax free state, aggressive bonus money and a full NMC. We had the same cap space available and we didn't land that 1D then. Beyond cap space there needs to be a willingness to use it and take risks we are not willing to take.

I was looking moreso at a top 6 around Thomas/Buch and Kyrou and someone else. I think you can have a pretty competitive and functional top 6 with 4 sure fire producers and a guy like Neighbors sprinkled in there.

Yes I understand that we failed to take the necessary measures at that time. However, if we aren't capable of drafting/developing one in the near future, we're going to have to be comfortable getting pretty uncomfortable to fill that hole. Was trying to point more towards even if you don't draft one, it's rare, but it's possible that there are other avenues to get to that juncture.

I still think ultimately what happens is we end up in the playoff team that's fighting for the 2/3 seed in the central long term though

 

[Majorityof1]

I was looking moreso at a top 6 around Thomas/Buch and Kyrou and someone else. I think you can have a pretty competitive and functional top 6 with 4 sure fire producers and a guy like Neighbors sprinkled in there.

Yes I understand that we failed to take the necessary measures at that time. However, if we aren't capable of drafting/developing one in the near future, we're going to have to be comfortable getting pretty uncomfortable to fill that hole. Was trying to point more towards even if you don't draft one, it's rare, but it's possible that there are other avenues to get to that juncture.

I still think ultimately what happens is we end up in the playoff team that's fighting for the 2/3 seed in the central long term though

I get what you are saying with building a top 6 around 4 guys. But are the 3 we have good enough to have a cup-competitive top 6 built around 4 guys at that level? We are struggling to score when these 3 aren't all together. Will 1 more guy at their level make it easier to carry a lesser forward on each line? They are all great players but they are not yet GREAT players

 

[LGB]

Buchnevich - Thomas - Snuggerud
Bolduc - Dvorsky - Kyrou
Stenberg - Dean - Neighbours
Holloway
Pekarcik

Broberg - Parayko
Lindstein - ?
Jiricek?

Looking at the core + top prospects, we really need Dvorsky and Lindstein to hit. I am very high on Snuggerud and expect him to be a great complement to Thomas. I’d also expect an acquisition to be made on defense and potentially center. Jiricek is a wild card but I’d operate under the assumption he won’t be ready anytime soon. I think this is a pretty solid base to build from and even though we don’t have any elite players. I think you can build a perennial playoff team with good depth and goaltending.

 

[Brian39]

I answered 'Stanley Cup Contenders' but I wish there was an option between that and "regular playoff team but never serious contenders.' I see the incoming core turning into a regular playoff team that isn't usually a serious contender but has 1 or 2 seasons where things go right and they are genuinely in that mix. So more than 'never' serious contenders but not enough to be viewed as one of the truly elite teams of the decade.

All that said, I think it is extremely hard to predict this since we have already confirmed a GM change within the timeframe. If Dvorsky/Snuggy are ready to make the jump as legit NHL contributors next year, does Army make a massive move to bring in immediate D help to make one final kick at the can in his last year as GM? how involved is Steen in the medium-to-long term decision making process right now? Are they working together specifically to open a window for Steen's tenure or is Steen simply waiting to inherit whatever the roster/organization looks like when Army leaves? Will Steen have the same/similar lines in the sand as Army in contract negotiations? How much of the front office moves on after Army leaves?

This organization could go so many different directions in the next couple years. As much as Army has been publicly talking about staying competitive, I genuinely have no clue what the internal expectations for this 2024/25 roster are.

Thomas is untouchable. Buch is untouchable (he was given a full NTC for this year when he signed the extension). Kyrou could theoretically be moved prior to his NTC kicking in 7/1/25, but I think it is highly unlikely and it wouldn't be in a deal for pure futures. And while we probably don't have a truly "untouchable" prospect, I feel comfortable saying that Dvorsky, Jricek, Lindstein, and Broberg aren't getting moved.

Other than that, I could see anyone else in the organization being moved by this time next year. I'm not convinced that we're finished with the 'asset accumulation' portion of the retool and I have a really hard time gauging what we could eventually be without knowing how the next 18 months goes. I don't see many people penciling in Faulk, Leddy, or Saad into the long term plans (for good reason). At some point during the Thomas contract, the team will be moving on from Binner. The timing and method of how the Blues move on from these guys makes a big difference when you're talking long term outlook.

 

[Spektre]

I answered 'Stanley Cup Contenders' but I wish there was an option between that and "regular playoff team but never serious contenders.' I see the incoming core turning into a regular playoff team that isn't usually a serious contender but has 1 or 2 seasons where things go right and they are genuinely in that mix. So more than 'never' serious contenders but not enough to be viewed as one of the truly elite teams of the decade.

All that said, I think it is extremely hard to predict this since we have already confirmed a GM change within the timeframe. If Dvorsky/Snuggy are ready to make the jump as legit NHL contributors next year, does Army make a massive move to bring in immediate D help to make one final kick at the can in his last year as GM? how involved is Steen in the medium-to-long term decision making process right now? Are they working together specifically to open a window for Steen's tenure or is Steen simply waiting to inherit whatever the roster/organization looks like when Army leaves? Will Steen have the same/similar lines in the sand as Army in contract negotiations? How much of the front office moves on after Army leaves?

This organization could go so many different directions in the next couple years. As much as Army has been publicly talking about staying competitive, I genuinely have no clue what the internal expectations for this 2024/25 roster are.

Thomas is untouchable. Buch is untouchable (he was given a full NTC for this year when he signed the extension). Kyrou could theoretically be moved prior to his NTC kicking in 7/1/25, but I think it is highly unlikely and it wouldn't be in a deal for pure futures. And while we probably don't have a truly "untouchable" prospect, I feel comfortable saying that Dvorsky, Jricek, Lindstein, and Broberg aren't getting moved.

Other than that, I could see anyone else in the organization being moved by this time next year. I'm not convinced that we're finished with the 'asset accumulation' portion of the retool and I have a really hard time gauging what we could eventually be without knowing how the next 18 months goes. I don't see many people penciling in Faulk, Leddy, or Saad into the long term plans (for good reason). At some point during the Thomas contract, the team will be moving on from Binner. The timing and method of how the Blues move on from these guys makes a big difference when you're talking long term outlook.

Army publicly said the prospect pool was full now. I’ll have to find the interview to find his exact words. He basically said they have replenished the organization from a prospect view point and now it’s going to the next phase of getting some into the NHL and building a team around them

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

Army publicly said the prospect pool was full now. I’ll have to find the interview to find his exact words. He basically said they have replenished the organization from a prospect view point and now it’s going to the next phase of getting some into the NHL and building a team around them

I believe he said the asset accumulation phase was over, but yes. As you say, now we need to see how they develop and fit so that we can fashion team. We need 2-3 additional high end players (similar to buchy or Parayko level) at a minimum to be a contender, but snuggy, dvo, stenberg, Bolduc, Holloway, neighbours, Lindstein, jiricek, and Broberg all have potential to be that. Most likely won't reach that level, but their development will dictate what we still need to acquire. I don’t think that is unreasonable that we can successfully do that.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Predicting the Blues status in 5 years is basically predicting how well the team will supplement the existing talent pool as it comes into its own.

We shouldn’t assume Armstrong/Steen are blind to the need to more top talent, especially on defense. How will they acquire it? Looks unlikely it will be through the draft. They may fail, but looks like they’ll be looking at free agents and trades.

It’s worth noting that the team was willing to overpay the RFAs as an acquisition cost with those offer sheets. Surely they’ll be willing to bid high enough when they need to to get the missing pieces. How does that market shape up? Will they find trade partners or UFAs who view St Louis favorably? Even the Cup team, there were lots of failed acquisition attempts. I remember the effort to trade for Drouin. Or like when many were enamored with Jason Garrison, and he nixed the move to St Louis in favor of Vancouver. We later ended up trading for Bouwmeester.

I can’t predict 5 years, but I do have confidence that this management group will perceive the needs and go after the right kind of players. Right now, I’m rooting for the young guys to outplay their junior projections and decide to be stars. Would be nice if a couple guys did that.

Trying to project farther than that is trying to anticipate too many variables for me.