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Speculation: What Went Wrong?

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BigGoalBrad said:
Watching our games and seeing their terrible play from game 1?

These guys are supposed to be part of the "leadership core / Bruins culture" and all that and one is playing for his first UFA deal. I'd take guys from Providence over them they've been that bad. Has to have something to do with their off season conditioning or lack there of.
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So terrible play = taking the summer off? OK then.
 
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Ladyfan said:
To me one of the most shocking things is how bad the PK has been. It feels like for years (no matter what else is going on) the PK has been excellent.

Maybe it is just my perception but not having a good PK is so anti Bruins.
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I looked at past season stats and ironically the last time the Bruins completed a season outside of the top 10 in penalty killing was the 2018-2019 season when they finished with a 79.9%. (16th)
 
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Ladyfan said:
To me one of the most shocking things is how bad the PK has been. It feels like for years (no matter what else is going on) the PK has been excellent.

Maybe it is just my perception but not having a good PK is so anti Bruins.
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To me is the entire play of this defence group that is shocking how bad they re this year, and we ve got a new D coach, is it the change?
 
The master plan by Donny boy is almost complete.

No other GM has ever won the Stanley Cup with the roster full of 3rd and 4th liners and bottom pairs. He just needs to ship out Pasta and McAvoy for some washed up role players (Stempniak Stafford, Maroon, Beleskey, Hathaway or Mike Reilly type) and conditional 5th round picks, healthy scratch indefinitely Hampus Lindholm, let Marchand to retire and we are all in!!! :D:D:D


Sweeney's trade history

2024
Lettieri, 4th for Lauko, 4th
Korpisalo, Kastelic, 1st for Ullmark
McIsaac for C. Hall
Maroon for Toporowski, 6th
Peeke for Zboril, 3rd

2023
Mitchell for T.Hall, Foligno
Walsh for Bowers
Bertuzzi for 1st, 4th
Bowers for Kinkaid
Hathaway for Smith, 1st, 2nd, 3rd
Orlov for 5th

2022
DiPietro, Myrenberg for Studnicka
Zacha for Haula
Future considerations for Lyle
Brown, 7th for Senyshyn, 5th
Lindholm, Curran for Moore, Vaakanainen, 1st, 2nd, 2nd

2021
3rd for Vladar
T.Hall, Lazar for Bjork, 2nd
Reilly for 3rd

2020
Ritchie for Heinen
Kase for Backes, Andersson, 1st

2019
Johansson for 2nd, 4th
Coyle for Donato, 5th
Carey for Goloubef

2018
Kampfer, 4th, 7th for McQuaid
Wingels for 5th
Nash for Spooner, Beleskey, Lindgren, 1st, 7th
3rd for Vatrano
Holden for O`Gara, 3rd

2017
Stafford for 6th

2016
Liles for Camara, 3rd, 5th
Stempniak for 2nd, 4th

2015
Hayes for Smith, Savard
Kuraly, 1st for Jones
Jones, Miller, 1st for Lucic
1st, 2nd, 2nd for Hamilton
2016 6th for Soderberg
 
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At the deadline, they should explore trading Coyle, Frederic, E. Lindholm, Zacha, Carlo, and H. Lindholm
Will get the most for them at the deadline, and maybe I'm wrong, but some of those may get teams in a bidding war and up their value. While most are not performing this year, some of them have had very good years, and a GM maybe willing to overpay hoping to get that good player.
 
whatsbruin said:
At the deadline, they should explore trading Coyle, Frederic, E. Lindholm, Zacha, Carlo, and H. Lindholm
Will get the most for them at the deadline, and maybe I'm wrong, but some of those may get teams in a bidding war and up their value. While most are not performing this year, some of them have had very good years, and a GM maybe willing to overpay hoping to get that good player.
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Elias Lindholm is un-tradable unless you eat 50% of the cap hit and add something of real value like a first round pick.
 
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Dennis Bonvie said:
I don't think the discussion on the Podcast was about standing pat and trying to win the Cup. Simply let's see what we have before making panic moves that may cost the team down the road. Whatever the Bruins do at the trade deadline won't make them true Cup contenders anyway.
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If that's the case then I'm not unsympathetic to that point of view, but I'd have to ask, in terms of seeing what we have, how much more do we need to see? It's February, we have seen, for 4 months, and much of what we've seen is not good. And elsewhere in the league moves are being made left, right and center. GMs are getting on with things.

I would certainly like to see how the defense looks with Lindholm back. But I wouldn't do nothing in the meantime for that reason alone. Chances are someone else will then just get injured anyway. I'm against panic moves, but I'm equally against being too conservative. The sooner a re-tool starts, the sooner it might start to bear fruit. The Bruins don't need a fire sale, and Sweeney would never do that anyway. But IMO the time to start seriously considering and ideally making some smart moves is now, or else they simply risk getting left behind.
 
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Wanna hear a crazy stat?

I just looked up the Bruins Expected Goals Against per 60 from last year and it was 3.03.

Then I looked up the Bruins Expected Goals Against per 60 for this year and it's actually better, it's 2.93.

So in other words the stat is saying the Bruins team defense has been better this year than last year. (It's also saying Bruins goalies should have allowed ~17 less goals this year.)

FYI: For those who don't know, Expected Goals Against takes the goaltending out of the equation and just looks at shots against, scoring chances against, high danger chances against... and that's xGA/60 in 'all situations' so it includes our lousy PK this year.
 
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PlayMakers said:
Wanna hear a crazy stat?

I just looked up the Bruins Expected Goals Against per 60 from last year and it was 3.03.

Then I looked up the Bruins Expected Goals Against per 60 for this year and it's actually better, it's 2.93.


For those who don't know, Expected Goals Against takes the goaltending out of the equation and just looks at shots against, scoring chances against, high danger chances against... and that's xGA/60 in 'all situations' so it includes our lousy PK this year.
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That makes the stat look flawed.

I haven’t seen a Bruins defense play this flummoxed since Kasper was the coach.
 
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Mr. Make-Believe said:
That makes the stat look flawed.

I haven’t seen a Bruins defense play this flummoxed since Kasper was the coach.
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It does, but it also makes you wonder how much of our perception is influenced by good goaltending.

Over the summer, lots of media and analysts were saying that the Bruins defense was actually bad last year, and that it was being propped up by their goalies.
 
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PlayMakers said:
Eh, even if he didn't expect Marchand to produce more, it would be fair to expect him to play better in all other areas of the game. He really struggled out of the gate. He was -7 in October and this board was full of posts about him being washed up and a liability.

Yes, I think the team (and everyone here) expected Lindholm put up his career average of 22 goals and 56 points. Maybe more if he gelled with Pasta (who has the ability to elevate players as we're seeing with Geekie). Many folks, myself included, thought last year was an anomaly because of his knee injury, and that the healthy playoff Lindholm was the real Lindholm. Then he hurt his wrist and missed all training camp and now we're wondering the same thing again. Time will tell if that's all crap cuz we can't unload him now.

Swayman's poor play has been the biggest reason this season is a flop. I fully expect him to rebound next year with a proper off-season and training camp, but he struggled out of the gate and has been horribly inconsistent. (Fwiw, I also think this team's stellar goaltending was the single biggest reason for their success last season.)
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Agree with much of this.

Given his age, multiple surgeries, the burden of carrying a captaincy with little surrounding leadership in the room (and, as has been pointed out by several in the media, a conspicuous lack of the veteran variety), I'm not certain one could reasonably expect Brad to play better in all other areas of the game. Almost to a man, the entire roster -- I really can't call them a team -- struggled mightily out of the gate, too.

Swayman has had almost no help in front of him, as the "defense" has been putrid from the beginning of the season, and remains so.

Yet the nasty part of me takes pleasure in his comeuppance after the hold out thing.

A lot of fans, including me, were troubled and disappointed by his behavior throughout, which revealed a willingness to place himself above his teammates by creating a damaging distraction that hurt the team.

He should eat crow, and plenty of it.

He should apologize for his selfishness and immature conduct.

Publically.

Has he?

If so, I haven't heard it.

Will he?

Maybe. When the Bruins DNQ or get booted in the first round.
 
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PlayMakers said:
It does, but it also makes you wonder how much of our perception is influenced by good goaltending.

Over the summer, lots of media and analysts were saying that the Bruins defense was actually bad last year, and that it was being propped up by their goalies.
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Not sure how that stat is determined.

Certainly, the Bruins goaltending was better last season. But there is no way the team defense is better this season.
 
GordonHowe said:
Agree with much of this.

Given his age, multiple surgeries, the burden of carrying a captaincy with little surrounding leadership in the room (and, as has been pointed out by several in the media, a conspicuous lack of the veteran variety), I'm not certain one could reasonably expect Brad to play better in all other areas of the game. Almost to a man, the entire roster -- I really can't call them a team -- struggled mightily out of the gate, too.

Swayman has had almost no help in front of him, as the "defense" has been putrid from the beginning of the season, and remains so.

Yet the nasty part of me takes pleasure in his comeuppance after the hold out thing.

A lot of fans, including me, were troubled and disappointed by his behavior throughout, which revealed a willingness to place himself above his teammates by creating a damaging distraction that hurt the team.

He should eat crow, and plenty of it.

He should apologize for his selfishness and immature conduct.

Publically.

Has he?

If so, I haven't heard it.

Will he?

Maybe. When the Bruins DNQ or get booted in the first round.
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I don't think a player (or agent) should need to apologies for trying to get the best deal possible.

Aussie Bruin said:
If that's the case then I'm not unsympathetic to that point of view, but I'd have to ask, in terms of seeing what we have, how much more do we need to see? It's February, we have seen, for 4 months, and much of what we've seen is not good. And elsewhere in the league moves are being made left, right and center. GMs are getting on with things.

I would certainly like to see how the defense looks with Lindholm back. But I wouldn't do nothing in the meantime for that reason alone. Chances are someone else will then just get injured anyway. I'm against panic moves, but I'm equally against being too conservative. The sooner a re-tool starts, the sooner it might start to bear fruit. The Bruins don't need a fire sale, and Sweeney would never do that anyway. But IMO the time to start seriously considering and ideally making some smart moves is now, or else they simply risk getting left behind.
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The problem is right now Sweeney is in no position to make any moves. Not exactly brimming with assets at the moment.
 
Dennis Bonvie said:
I don't think a player (or agent) should need to apologies for trying to get the best deal possible.

The problem is right now Sweeney is in no position to make any moves. Not exactly brimming with assets at the moment.
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I think Don doesn't have a lot to work with, for sure, but not nothing. Carlo, Coyle and Frederic all have some value. What does Marchand want to do? Brazeau and Wotherspoon or the like could be complimentary or 'extra' pieces in a deal perhaps.

It could be that Sweeney is shopping all these guys and there are simply no takers, we don't know. But at the very least there are options, however limited, so to me it's not unreasonable to expect to see at least a couple of useful moves before the deadline.
 
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Dennis Bonvie said:
Not sure how that stat is determined.
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"Expected goals (xG) is a metric that estimates how likely a shot is to be scored based on a number of factors. It's calculated using a statistical model that assigns a probability value to each shot.

Factors considered; Distance to goal, Angle to goal, Shot type, Assist type (i.e. shots off a cross ice pass are more likely to be scored), Goalkeeper position...

How it's calculated
  1. A model is used to calculate the probability of scoring based on the shot's characteristics
  2. The model assigns a value between 0 and 1 to the shot
  3. A shot with a value of 0.3 is likely to be scored about 3 out of every 10 times based on all shots taken in the league that meet the same criteria.
The xG metric is used to measure the quality of a chance to score. It can be used to estimate how many goals a player or team should have scored based on the shots they took. Conversely xG against is used to determine how many goals a team should have allowed based on the shots they give up."

AI is scary.
 
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What "went wrong" is they went after the 2 biggest free agent names out there, overpaid them and neither has been very good. Swayman holding them ransom didn't help and he hasn't played up to his deal so that contributes, but otherwise all of this was inevitable. You can't trade away your picks and prospects for over a decade and then turn around and expect to have a waiting influx of new talent. Just not going to happen.

So they tried to address it via free agency and that failed miserably. I never expected Lindholm to be Bergeron, but I did think he'd be somewhere between Bergeron and Coyle. A true 2C and a serviceable 1C if he had elite wingers (like Pasta) for at least a few years while Poitras developed (or we waited to sign Eichel - dream a little dream). But he's played marginal 3C level at best. Horrible signing.
Zadorov I can live with as we needed the size and toughness but he's been so up and down that he didn't improve the D at all. You can justify him as an overpaid 3rd pairing guy who maybe gives you what you need come playoff time but he won't help get you into the playoffs and so it's moot.
Marchand's aging, lots of them are slow and mediocre, it's a team lacking scoring talent simple as that and it's kind of amazing it has taken this long to get here. Probably should have happened already last year.
 
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What happened is Sweeney blew the post Bergeron and Krejci center replacement. Should have had those two years before they called it. Secondly, they haven’t gotten the Monty system out of their veins yet. He screwed them up pretty good. Thirdly, they have too many third liners because of their success.
 
Ladyfan said:
To me one of the most shocking things is how bad the PK has been. It feels like for years (no matter what else is going on) the PK has been excellent.

Maybe it is just my perception but not having a good PK is so anti Bruins.
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Nailed it. I think the Rags game was the first time in 2-months the Bruins won the special teams battle.

Atrocious.

In addition, Shocking defensive lapses that not Brodeur, Hasek, or Roy could overcome.
 
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