Player Discussion What went wrong with Galchenyuk's and Kotkaniemi's development and progress that won't go wrong with Slafkovsky's?

[ReHabs]

I don't know much about amateur hockey or player development. Other than the obvious fact that Bergevin-Timmins-Therrien are gone and there is a new regime in place I'd like to know if there has been a reasonable retrospective analysis of what went wrong with Galchenyuk and Kotkaniemi and what the Habs will be doing differently or should look out for when it comes to our new boy Slafkovsky.

Galchenyuk

GP

G

A

P

PPG

∆ PPG

GP

G

A

P

PPG

∆ PPG

2013​

48​

9​

18​

27​

0.56​

5​

1​

2​

3​

0.60​

2014​

65​

13​

18​

31​

0.48​

-0.09​

5​

2​

1​

3​

0.60​

0.00​

2015​

80​

20​

26​

46​

0.58​

0.10​

12​

1​

3​

4​

0.33​

-0.27​

2016​

82​

30​

26​

56​

0.68​

0.11​

2017​

61​

17​

27​

44​

0.72​

0.04​

6​

0​

3​

3​

0.50​

0.17​

2018​

82​

19​

32​

51​

0.62​

-0.10​

Totals

418​

108​

147​

255​

0.61​

0.05​

28​

4​

9​

13​

0.46​

-0.14​

Kotkanimi

GP

G

A

P

PPG

∆ PPG

GP

G

A

P

PPG

∆ PPG

2019​

79​

11​

23​

34​

0.43​

2020​

36​

6​

2​

8​

0.22​

-0.21​

10​

4​

4​

0.40​

2021​

56​

5​

15​

20​

0.36​

0.13​

19​

5​

3​

8​

0.42​

0.02​

Canes 2022

66​

12​

17​

29​

0.44​

0.08​

14

0

2

2​

0.14

- 0.28

Totals

237​

34​

57​

91​

0.38​

-0.05​

43​

9​

5​

14​

0.33​

-0.07​

Made the above table (instead of finishing a report for a client...) to see what happened on a statistical level.

We see that Galchenyuk started pretty strong with his line along Eller and Gallagher and, in hindsight, had a healthy-enough career with us. In his final season his 51 points and 0.6ppg isn't anything to scoff at - his career derailed afterwards so it could be the organisation cut ties with him just as they felt he was going the wrong way. He never went above and beyond though and his progression was minimal, the change in his PPG from his first season compared to his entire tenure was a measly 0.05 PPG. The difference between his peak PPG and his Habs career PPG is 0.11, and his peak PPG and his first season PPG is 0.16 (not bad!).

I think he didn't develop as fast as the Habs wanted and in his final season he slipped a bit so the Habs thought it was best to cut ties with him before it was too late. Turned out to be the right move, making the best of a mediocre 3OA pick.

Moving onto Kotkaniemi, he started well and had a major slip in his sophomore season. He didn't recover well enough from that and was poached away by the Hurricanes. He looks like something went terribly wrong somewhere. Next year will be pivotal for him. The Canes are hoping he hits 0.6 PPG and proves the haters and doubters wrong. They'll give him two more years and if he doesn't improve to being at least a 0.7PPG player they'll probably buy him out while his buy-out penalty is 1/3rd of his cap hit.

So do we have any theories what went wrong with these players and what the Habs need to do (or have done) to sort out Slafkovksy's progression?

Click to read more...

 

[Boyon90]

They were not number 1

 

[bobholly39]

A lot of people will say Habs player development sucked, and blame management. And I'm sure that's part of it, but in the end the biggest part is always on the player himself.

Maybe they just weren't that good.

Hopefully Slafvosky ends up a lot better

 

[SkeeterPumpkinEater]

What went wrong with Galchenyuk's development period.

 

[Skip Bayless]

Slaf can skate and Slaf will carry two players on his back to get to the net.

Also, Slaf is a winger. Less pressure to rush things.

 

[JuJu Mobb]

They're both average skaters with no real elite skills. They both had questionable characters.

 

[sandviper]

No guarantees of course that Slaf will break the trend and be a star, or at the very least, a solid top-6 winger, but I think it’ll depend a lot on the new team mantra.

Development is a huge priority now for the club. Never mind the massive add of Adam Nicholas, but the club also added a whole analytics team. Prospects and younger players can benefit from this but so can the vets.

The Galchenyuk and KK eras were also heavily hampered by defence first, low-risk and mistake free coaches in MT and CJ. DD, while being a lot younger, was of the same mindset. MSL May become this but if we take him at his word, he’ll let kids learn and develop.

The Bergy regime put it all on the player and yes, while the player does have a big hand in their own success, the club has to give them all the tools to be successful.

Getting back to Slaf, he may or may not pan out but I’m more hopeful that the FO is putting the right things in place and know what they are doing. Not mentioned in your post, but this is the exact reason why I’m hopeful they can make Dach a top-6 center. With Bergy and the dinosaur coaches before, this trade (which never would had happened anyways) would have resulted in Dach becoming a 4C, probably scratched half the time.

 

[Saundies]

I don't know much about amateur hockey or player development. Other than the obvious fact that Bergevin-Timmins-Therrien are gone and there is a new regime in place I'd like to know if there has been a reasonable retrospective analysis of what went wrong with Galchenyuk and Kotkaniemi and what the Habs will be doing differently or should look out for when it comes to our new boy Slafkovsky.

Galchenyuk

GP

G

A

P

PPG

∆ PPG

GP

G

A

P

PPG

∆ PPG

2013​

48​

9​

18​

27​

0.56​

5​

1​

2​

3​

0.60​

2014​

65​

13​

18​

31​

0.48​

-0.09​

5​

2​

1​

3​

0.60​

0.00​

2015​

80​

20​

26​

46​

0.58​

0.10​

12​

1​

3​

4​

0.33​

-0.27​

2016​

82​

30​

26​

56​

0.68​

0.11​

2017​

61​

17​

27​

44​

0.72​

0.04​

6​

0​

3​

3​

0.50​

0.17​

2018​

82​

19​

32​

51​

0.62​

-0.10​

Totals

418​

108​

147​

255​

0.61​

0.05​

28​

4​

9​

13​

0.46​

-0.14​

Kotkanimi

GP

G

A

P

PPG

∆ PPG

GP

G

A

P

PPG

∆ PPG

2019​

79​

11​

23​

34​

0.43​

2020​

36​

6​

2​

8​

0.22​

-0.21​

10​

4​

4​

0.40​

2021​

56​

5​

15​

20​

0.36​

0.13​

19​

5​

3​

8​

0.42​

0.02​

Canes 2022

66​

12​

17​

29​

0.44​

0.08​

14

0

2

2​

0.14

- 0.28

Totals

237​

34​

57​

91​

0.38​

-0.05​

43​

9​

5​

14​

0.33​

-0.07​

Made the above table (instead of finishing a report for a client...) to see what happened on a statistical level.

We see that Galchenyuk started pretty strong with his line along Eller and Gallagher and, in hindsight, had a healthy-enough career with us. In his final season his 51 points and 0.6ppg isn't anything to scoff at - his career derailed afterwards so it could be the organisation cut ties with him just as they felt he was going the wrong way. He never went above and beyond though and his progression was minimal, the change in his PPG from his first season compared to his entire tenure was a measly 0.05 PPG. The difference between his peak PPG and his Habs career PPG is 0.11, and his peak PPG and his first season PPG is 0.16 (not bad!).

I think he didn't develop as fast as the Habs wanted and in his final season he slipped a bit so the Habs thought it was best to cut ties with him before it was too late. Turned out to be the right move, making the best of a mediocre 3OA pick.

Moving onto Kotkaniemi, he started well and had a major slip in his sophomore season. He didn't recover well enough from that and was poached away by the Hurricanes. He looks like something went terribly wrong somewhere. Next year will be pivotal for him. The Canes are hoping he hits 0.6 PPG and proves the haters and doubters wrong. They'll give him two more years and if he doesn't improve to being at least a 0.7PPG player they'll probably buy him out while his buy-out penalty is 1/3rd of his cap hit.

So do we have any theories what went wrong with these players and what the Habs need to do (or have done) to sort out Slafkovksy's progression?

Galchenyuk I have no idea. Injuries to his legs? The guy was on an absolute tear that year he blew his knee out and then was never the same speed/explosiveness-wise (2016). Then he's bounced around the league like a rubber ball after we let him go.

KK was always going to be a project. Hindsight's obviously 20/20 because if you look back in my post history, I probably advocated for him to play right away (shiny toy syndrome). He wasn't ready to play in his rookie year and never took that step forward after, settling into the player he is now.

I'd say the positions these guys were put in relative to what Slaf is will be a big factor. Each of those guys had old school coaches who were looking to win at any cost, including the cost of sitting and sheltering these guys away from prime minutes/opportunities. For me, people talk about MSL being this coach guru (the jury's still out) but the fact that young guys won't be exiled after a single mistake will be the biggest breath of fresh air rather than MSL himself.

You could argue they both needed more time in the A or junior or Finland, but even in the A for a bit we had Sly who sucked ass at developing and Bouchard who, according to Weise, is as old school as they come when he's not in front of a camera. So who knows how that turns out.

Summary: Both were reaches at their spot, both had some red flags that weren't navigated properly, both weren't put into optimal positions to succeed due to team success over development.

 

[Tyson]

I think Galchenyuk listened too much to his dad and not enough to his coaches. With that said he should not have been rushed.
Kotkaniemi was a gangly weak on his skates 18 year old who should have been Sent back to Finland.
With that said even going back to Finland probably would not have made much of a difference because he was a stretch at 3rd overall and he should kiss Dundon's ass for the ludicrous one year deal and subsequent 8 year contract.

Never draft for need....pick the BPA.

 

[Dr Quincy]

Don't put guys in the NHL right away. An extra year of development in a lower league is fine. Then even the next year, don't gift them a spot. If they aren't clearly the best option for top 9 F or top 6 D don't put them in the lineup.

The phrase "they have nothing left to learn" at a lower level isn't true for the vast majority of 18-19 year olds.

 

[Seb]

Kotkaniemi's problem is he shouldn't have been rushed at the NHL. His body wasn't ready yet. It sucks that he was actually the best center during that camp.

2 seasons later his issues remain the same, there are no progression. His lower body is ridiculously weak. At this point, baring any major change I have little to no hope for him to become anything more than a third line player which sucks for someone with as much potential as him.


As for Galchenyuk, I don't know what went wrong. Maybe a lack of discipline?

 

[DramaticGloveSave]

KK was just never very good. Poor skater… weak… he had too much to overcome. The idea was that he was young, protectable, and that if he can get stronger and get better skating… but he had balance issues and was just a lanky, weak guy. Never should have been considered at 3.

Galchenyuk, in my humble opinion, blew it by lacking drive and focus. And he wasn’t so sublimely talented that he could make it based on talent alone.

Slaf actually does have the talent to make it on talent alone. Also appears to have a great head on his shoulders. He won’t fail for the reasons Chucky and KK did. For Slaf, it all comes down to IQ, and how quickly he can adapt. I think his floor is Nichushkin who only figured it out this year. Nichushkin who never figured it out is worst case. Best case is something like Draistl but not sure how likely that is.

 

[Naslundforever]

Slafkovsky can move his hands concurrently with his feet unlike Galchenyuk who’s head bobbing fooled nobody.

He also seems much stronger on his skates unlike Kotkaniemi who is on on his ass from the wind of the player bench openning.

Most importantly St-Louis seems committed to giving rookies icetime and a free pass to mess up unlike every previous coach scrambling to make the playoffs playing vets and playing « not to lose ».

#20 seems really motivated too, nice mix of room to grow, looks humble while having that « swagger » (unlike the previous 2 who were all swagger).

 

[WeThreeKings]

We don't really know until we see the new development team in action, but I can tell you what went wrong with Galchenyuk and Kotkaniemi

• They were brought in to the NHL too early before fixing skating & physical deficiencies.
• They were deployed in a way that was not in line with what they were supposed to be at the NHL level. Spells on the wing. Spells in the bottom 6. Given very little offensive opportunities. Scratched, benched and everything else for minute issues.
• They were left on their own to develop their skills.
• They were left on their own to fix mechanical issues.
• They were given no development plan.
• They were held to different standards than vets and grinders, leading to punishment much sooner.
• The coaches and GMs they had were stupid and focused on making everyone the same player, regardless of their strengths.
• They didn't know how to utilize their skill-set, making those skills deterioate.

 

[BushFireRecordsRedux]

People will put too much weight in the theory that they were rushed but both were very competent NHLers right off the bat. I don't think Galchenyuk was going to learn much more in the CHL, especially since he was mostly playing on Sarault's wing in Sarnia and they were planning to develop him at C in the NHL, which was fine until the team was better than expected and their plans seemed to change pretty quickly. Although in Galchenyuk's case, it seems like the development plan failure was as much about not adequately helping him adapt to the celebrity and off-ice temptations as much as anything.

Sometimes though, there's just nothing you can do. 2012 was a crappy draft and Galchenyuk was a calculated gamble with the injury and skating issues. It ended up not working out great but the whole top 4 of that draft were all duds.

 

[Wats]

A lot of people will say Habs player development sucked, and blame management. And I'm sure that's part of it, but in the end the biggest part is always on the player himself.

Maybe they just weren't that good.

Hopefully Slafvosky ends up a lot better

Will that be the case if Slafkovsky busts too after looking good at age 18 in NHL? At some point, if the player played better as a rookie teenager than he does at 21-25, the team is doing something wrong while he is in organizations hands. The fact Montreal did it twice makes it very concerning.

 

[Tetragrammaton]

To begin with neither of those two can skate properly on an NHL level, Slaf is a great skater. Secondly both of KK and Chucky are head cases.

 

[Leon Lucius Black]

Galchenyuk couldn't skate, had a hard shot that was very inaccurate, would fan on half his one timers and would continue to try to pull off moves that worked in juniors but would never work in professional hockey.

Kotkaniemi would fall over when he was breathed on and never showed he was elite or above average at anything.

 

[BLNY]

Bergevin's first strike was hiring Therrien. I do think Galch would have fared better under a coach like we have now. Michel's different set of rules for different players, and constant yo-yo up and down the lineup and center or wing did have an impact. That said, there were two other factors that hampered Alex's development. The knee injury he suffered in junior robbed him of speed. The other was his father. He's father was too involved in his professional career. I wouldn't call him a meddler, but he was definitely in Alex's ear.

KK suffered some of the same yo-yo treatment from Julien. Despite Jesperi's ability to up his game in big moments and score big goals, it seems pretty clear that offensive consistency is going to be an ongoing issue. He's not super fast, but his lengthy stride allows him to cover ground quicker than he looks to. My biggest issue was his lack of balance. He's a lanky kid. If he initiated contact he was fine, but if he got hit up high he struggled to maintain his footing. We'll see if he can be a Jordan Staal for the Canes.

We'll see what Slaf turns into. He's got skill, size and skating. The coaching staff and player development people seem to be in place to best ensure his success. The rest is up to him.

 

[BushFireRecordsRedux]

Kotkaniemi's problem is he shouldn't have been rushed at the NHL. His body wasn't ready yet. It sucks that he was actually the best center during that camp.

2 seasons later his issues remain the same, there are no progression. His lower body is ridiculously weak. At this point, baring any major change I have little to no hope for him to become anything more than a third line player which sucks for someone with as much potential as him.


As for Galchenyuk, I don't know what went wrong. Maybe a lack of discipline?

I thought they should have sent him back, 100% but I would say that in terms of off-ice training/strength specific issues the best place for a player *should* be with NHL training/developmental staff as opposed to overseas with a program that has much less incentive + resources to worry about a player's future strength growth. In theory the best place for him would have been the AHL but who knows how willing he'd have been to do that.

 

[habsgirl5000]

History will repeat itself,

We missed out on Brady T and regret it,

We missed out on Wright and will regret it,

Slaf will end up being Chucky 2.0

The franchise is starving for a 1C and then pass up on one

Makes zero sense

 

[Habs Halifax]

Every player develops at different rates at different age ranges. You can't nail this down as a fan.

It's all about hard work and the time you put into it. A lot of prospects have great age 15-17 years and once drafted, they coast thinking they made it. However, at age 18-21, the real hard work starts.

We look at Galchenyuk and KK but then ignore Suzuki. What's the difference? Commitment and obsession to improve. Not everyone has it

 

[durojean]

Galchenyuk I have no idea. Injuries to his legs? The guy was on an absolute tear that year he blew his knee out and then was never the same speed/explosiveness-wise (2016). Then he's bounced around the league like a rubber ball after we let him go.

KK was always going to be a project. Hindsight's obviously 20/20 because if you look back in my post history, I probably advocated for him to play right away (shiny toy syndrome). He wasn't ready to play in his rookie year and never took that step forward after, settling into the player he is now.

I'd say the positions these guys were put in relative to what Slaf is will be a big factor. Each of those guys had old school coaches who were looking to win at any cost, including the cost of sitting and sheltering these guys away from prime minutes/opportunities. For me, people talk about MSL being this coach guru (the jury's still out) but the fact that young guys won't be exiled after a single mistake will be the biggest breath of fresh air rather than MSL himself.

You could argue they both needed more time in the A or junior or Finland, but even in the A for a bit we had Sly who sucked ass at developing and Bouchard who, according to Weise, is as old school as they come when he's not in front of a camera. So who knows how that turns out.

Summary: Both were reaches at their spot, both had some red flags that weren't navigated properly, both weren't put into optimal positions to succeed due to team success over development.

I like your post and most of it is basically the same opinion as me.

I'd argue on the Bouchard case. I feel like he was really good for our young players and everyone developped well under him. Veteran players had more difficulties with him because he expected the same thing out of them than he expected from the kids. Plus, most of the time, the kids played more than the veteran like Dale Weise particularly because of development.

I feel like Bouchard created a culture in the Rockets locker room and it took time to reap the benefits of that. Sadly, when he could have done it, things felt appart with Bergevin.

Galchenyuk is mostly a case of too much sheltering added to the fact that every mistake got him a demotion. He did not have enough time in an important role when he was younger. He was never allowed the opportunity to get out of his slumps on the top line. Add to that the attitude problem outside the ice and the lack of focus on hockey in is later year made him the player he is now.

KK jury is still out. I feel like he is pretty young and that Carolina restarted his development at the very beginning. He's going to have more responsabilites this year. He was a project, brought up too soon. Coach was not ready to live with rookie mistake so he lost a lot of confidence. I still remember in his 1st season, he was doing pretty well, and Julien came up in a press conference and completely oblitared him saying that he was not ready yet and he had a lot of things to work on. Next game, got scratched. I remember he lost a big step after that and never truly recovered of that because after that moment, Julien was on his back every time he made a mistake.

 

[NotProkofievian]

1.) We have a skills coach now, we didn't before.
2.) Our management has opined on several times that they believe in taking their time with prospects. In particular, Gorton has drafted at 1st and 2nd overall and has learned that maybe kids might not be ready right away.

Hopefully Slaf is ready for prime time from day one, but in the event that he isn't Slaf has more of a chance than prospects under the previous regime.

 

[DueDiligence]

They're both average skaters with no real elite skills. They both had questionable characters.

You mean they were bad picks!