I dont CLAIM you dont know what youre talking about, I KNOW you dont know what youre talking about
put simply your wrong you added a bunch of extraneous data (All players since 1967) which dont have anything to do with the discussion which taints the conclusion
one of the very first lessons youre taught in statistics is to Identify your sample, which you clearly did not do.. all players do not play as Lee does, neither do All forwards, so much of your sample is diluted by invalid assumptions
to correctly develop a sample you must get rid of the extraneous,but you didnt even try, now if you had limited your sample to all goals scored from within 5 feet for example you would find shooting percentages to be higher than from 20 feet, its the enire theory behind hot zones or high danger areas, but you deliberately left that out
i didnt just use Tim Kerr, he was merely the closest similarity score to Lee I also used the historical data on hot zones and danger areas on a decade by decade basis to try to account for changes in the game itself, as anyone with a statistical background would do.
That is why you have to remove the extraneous from your sample the closer you can get to a proper sample the higher the Validity coefficient
I was for 23 years one of the IRS leading Tax specialists and as a function of my Position I had to understand not only basic statistics but also validity coefficients and how to separate the germain from the extraneous, just like you dont compare 7'3 centers to 5 '10 point guards you dont compare those who do their scoring from in close to those who score from outside, Shooting percentages from different areas have wildly different rates
so youre all players approach tptally ignores that and will lead to invalid results. which is why I know you dont have a clue about what you were talking about, you didnt even try to limit your sample to like kind data. you left it overly broad and vectorless
Tim Kerr is the closest similarity score to Lee by what measure? He's not by Hockey-References similarity scores. Feel free to cite your source.
There's no data source that tracks an individual's shooting percentages by distance from net...and certainly nothing historical. They didn't even track shot distance from the net all that long ago, so I'd love to know where you're getting all this "decade by decade" historical data on hot zones and danger areas. Feel free to cite the numbers and source for either of those as well.
Also, you do know that Anders Lee's average shot distance is over 20', right? Just checking, since you seem to think that "limiting my sample to all goals scored within 5'," however you're supposed to go about doing that, is a good idea for some reason.
Do you know the historical or current shooting percentage for all shots taken by "net front guys" (because you're determined to account for playing style as well) within 20' of the net so we can compare Lee's shooting percentage the last two years to that number? Of course you don't. No one does. You can't accuse me of "deliberately leaving out" data that we don't have access to.
You keep complaining about me not "limiting my sample" and "not accounting for changes in the game itself," and keep ignoring that there's literally no active player in the game who is currently sustaining the sort of shooting percentage you're suggesting Lee can sustain.
You can't account for changes in the game any more strictly than by limiting the comparison pool to active players only, and it doesn't matter how you limit the sample in terms of player inclusion if there is literally no one in the league that is doing it.
How about a change of pace and
you plop down some statistical analysis to discuss since you have such firm ideas about how it should be done? Not a one person hand-picked case study comparison, but some actual hard numbers drawn from a decent sample size that you collect, calculate, and are subsequently able to justify? That might actually add something interesting to the conversation, if you can produce it, and perhaps even elevate me from my woefully ignorant state.
I look forward to discussing your shooting percentage analysis of a clearly identified sample of net-front players, from suitably relevant eras, based on their shot distances from the net, in the near-ish future.