Eberle is not available at all. He's led his team in scoring in both of his two years in the league and is 22 years old....
If there's an offensive forward on the Oilers that could be traded for it would be Hemsky. Perhaps Gagner. No one else.
What to do about the blueline?
- Thread starter alphafox
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Eberle is not available at all. He's led his team in scoring in both of his two years in the league and is 22 years old....
If there's an offensive forward on the Oilers that could be traded for it would be Hemsky. Perhaps Gagner. No one else.
Mayor Bee
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Mostly reasonable, but I strongly disagree on both Johnson and Wisniewski, while mildly disagreeing on Tyutin. Johnson might not fetch a top-5 pick by itself, but the value to get close would probably be there (mid-1st, plus a 2nd, maybe a 7th as well). Tyutin mid-1st. Wisniewski's contract isn't much of anything, in all honesty. Not many defensemen are truly signed long-term, so the ability to plug-and-play on a year-to-year basis exists nearly everywhere in the league.
Combined, yes. Separately, no. It's a rare situation where I think a pairing together would fetch a massive premium that two separate assets wouldn't come close to.
...and also why Johansen's name is brought up so frequently.
I still think we need to just accept everything on the trade boards no matter how absurd. Since 99% of threads start off with a ridiculous premise, there's simply no real room for anything resembling debate.
Keep in mind that I put the values in terms of 2013 draft choices. So 30th for Tyuts or 15th for JJ is still a nice payday if you end up with Hartman and Pulock. Still I might be undervaluing several of the guys.
Ive never seen a defence pair traded as a unit before, but I was thinking about the return for TinTin last summer and I thought it would be very high. I'm not so sure now, because they haven't been as good this year, particularly Nikitin. So who would want the pair the most? Edmonton, Philadelphia, Detroit? Maybe we get a couple late 1sts from Philly?
Why are we talking about moving JJ? Buyers remorse already?
Starting to get a bit of a headache. I'm calling for a moratorium on trade talk of this type until, at least, our GM has been in town for, at least, 24 hours. We have no history to suggest what JK/JD are even going to consider, more so with JK. I think it's perfect reasonable to suggest that we'll need to do something in about two years, but there isn't even a remote rush to do anything this season or next.
Not directed at you, but....
Talking to Edmonton about moving a forward is like trying to trade a dehydrated man out of his last bottle of water in the middle of the desert. Why bother even entertaining them in the least little bit my mentioning any of their forwards?
Back to you...
I don't like all this talk about draft picks for our d. I hope we can get more creative than a second round pick for a second pairing or better roster player.
Oh and on a side note, who are we worried about from a waiver claim in the near future? Most of these guys are anywhere from 3-5 years from the first time we have to worry about them getting claimed. Outside of Holden, the closest thing we might have to worry about is Savard in a couple of years. I think Savard has one more year of exemption, at a quick glance. Moore is still a long way off, so is Erixon, Weber, Golo, etc.
Major Major, you clearly did not understand my post. I was not talking about an offer from Edmonton for Wiz. I was talking about the lack of hockey moxie of the poster who claimed that we could not get more than a 7th round pick for Wiz.
alphafox
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I started this thread for a few reasons.
1. I believe that Erixon & Goloubef have outplayed at Nikitin & Aucoin, and therefore have played themselves onto the NHL squad. Thereby, making some of the current pieces we have on the blue line expendable, particularly given that this is now another "lost" season (We are now 7 points out of 8th in the west with no games in hand). This is a good time for these kids to play at the NHL level.
2. This is a deep draft. Maybe the deepest for forwards since 2003 and IMO at least as good as the 2008 draft if not better. Getting Draft picks in this years draft, particularly first and second rounders, can shorten the rebuild we are going to do by years. Add to that the 2014 and 2015 drafts look considerably thinner than this year and we should at least attempt to maximize our draft assets this year by converting assets that will be replaced by next season. (There is no way that Moore, Erixon, and Murray don't all make the team next year)
3. JD cleaned house when he came into ST. Louis. I stated earlier the major trades of veterans for draft assets and young players/prospects that were made during his first year. I see no reason that he would not do so again. The hiring of JK also indicates that the stockpiling of draft assets is something that will be important to management.
I personally see an opportunity to maximize the return for a number of guys like Tyutin and Nikitin, and given that we have essentially already dropped out of the playoff race, I see no reason not to move them when they can be turned into valuable assets that will help this team build a strong core of young players this year. I can't help but imagine being able to get another first round pick and a high second. A hypothetical draft of Mackinnon, Nurse, Domi, Lazar would be considered one of the best drafts in recent memory and isn't completely out of the realm of possibilty (somewhat unlikely I'll grant but definitely doable)
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Double-Shift Lasse
Just post better
In stretches, yes, this has been the case. I'm going to say it's totally fair to reserve judgment on this, however.
Yes it's a deep draft but I'd like to think it's a little more complicated than "trade old guys for draft picks."
3. JD cleaned house when he came into ST. Louis. I stated earlier the major trades of veterans for draft assets and young players/prospects that were made during his first year. I see no reason that he would not do so again. The hiring of JK also indicates that the stockpiling of draft assets is something that will be important to management.[/QUOTE]
A not unreasonable assumption, but there is more than one way to fashion a roster, and I'd like to think JD can handle multiple different approaches. I'm not saying this won't happen, I'm just saying that assuming it's going to happen is more than a little bit of projection at this point.
No need to explain or justify. I'll try and make a couple of comments along the way. My first post in this thread gives my overall opinion.
I would say that Nikitin is a whipping boy for some right now. He's struggling, but not the point of trading him to make room for one of those two.
I understand the value of picks and how deep the draft it. However, I am not prepared to gut our defense for some second round picks.
We have stockpiled. I have numerous posts regarding the method of cleaning out the trash. However, the urgency is not to cram them all in this year at the expense of making foolish trades. We have to keep a competitive defense together to start to promote a winning culture while allowing our prospects to develop properly. Erixon should get a longer look, but Golo should continue to develop and get more and more looks. There is no hurry to bring them up here.
Please read above. At most I am prepared to only move one defensemen and that is Aucoin at this moment in time. If JK wants to move either Wiz or Tyutin for the right deal, so be it. However moving guys for late first round or second round picks, even in this draft, is a very risky proposition. You can very well end up with absolutely nothing and weaken your team at the same time. It is certainly not a focus.
Keep the picks in perspective. At the end of the day, a late round first or a second, historically, doesn't usually get you a Tyutin with any great regularity. Don't inflate the value because of the draft year. You still have a good shot of drafting someone that won't help you out in any capacity.
I'm usually more in favor of trading for prospects. Especially guys that playing at a pro level now.
alphafox
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I agree with pretty much everything you said. I can totally understand that wanting to reserve judgement on the young guys. And Its not a "Trade all the old guys" cry (at least for me) I personally would keep Aucoin as our seventh D to mentor these kids, particularly given the low return we will likely get for him. My main contention is that the Pair of Nikitin and Tyutin are playing solid but unremarkable hockey (and sometimes not even that). Splitting them up has resulted in diminished to bad play by both of them. Therefore we either need to commit to having both on the roster and having a decent second pairing we are locked into or we trade both and open up space on the roster, while also acquiring assets for the future.
I also agree the JD has the hockey knowledge to take a different approach to building this team. (Though given the similarity between our situation and that of St. Louis, and the repeated "brick by brick" and "we must be patient and build the right way" statements it seems likely that they are planning on building the same way.)
Double-Shift Lasse
Just post better
Indeed. In reading my earlier post, I believe "reserving judgment" would have better been said as something like "let's not create a hole right now just because we think we can." Does that make sense? I have a good feeling about both Erixon and Golobeuf.
Viqsi
"that chick from Ohio"
Absolutely this. And it's the apparent rush to do so that has me half-convinced that folks are advocating deliberate tanking.
...which I should know better than by now, but my supply of "faith in the CBJ fanbase" has been at record lows for the last year and a half or so.
Actually what I think you are looking for is that they've already given up on the season, so it's time to sell and look at the younger players. There are a few around here that want nothing more than us to deliberately tank. Based on the turnover in the front office and the corresponding changes that will happen on the ice, along with draft class we are looking at, this is the only time that I have ever considered that it might very well be in our best interest to just let the team implode.
I'll meet them halfway and concede that Erixon is playing well enough to move Aucoin since Richards isn't going to healthy scratch him from time to time (meaning 50% of the time). The half way part is that I don't want to create big holes in our lineup and I certainly don't want to make bad trades because some think we've got a potential all-star at pick number 47. No matter how much the guy above me believes otherwise, a second round pick is far more times than not a non-factor. Ten minutes in hockeydb will show you that. We may think this is similar to the 2003 draft, but history will prove that. I, personally, am not prepared to roll the dice, especially since we already have 4 of the top 31 picks right at this moment.
I'm not reading folks clamoring to "blow up the defence". What I see is a legitimate difference in opinion between folks like alphafox and viqsi over whether to move a couple guys, namely TinTin.
The only folks I definitely want to move out are Aucoin, Holden, and Savard.
(I don't have buyers remorse for JJ, I was establishing his value).
I was the one who attempted to put trade value in terms of 2013 picks, and most people seem to think I have erred on the side of undervaluation. My rationale, BTW, is to put the trade value in a common currency, so that we can make comparisons. This is helpful, I think, because defencemen with equal value to us could have vastly different valuations on the market.
I'm not suggesting we dump Tyuts or Wiz or anyone besides the three above. A 30th overall draft choice, even in a deep draft, is not that great of an asset. Guys like Max Domi and Ryan Hartman are statistically unlikely to become top line scorers in the NHL. If you look at the 2003 draft, the picks 25-35 yielded two studs- Loui Eriksson and Corey Perry.
The only folks I definitely want to move out are Aucoin, Holden, and Savard.
(I don't have buyers remorse for JJ, I was establishing his value).
I was the one who attempted to put trade value in terms of 2013 picks, and most people seem to think I have erred on the side of undervaluation. My rationale, BTW, is to put the trade value in a common currency, so that we can make comparisons. This is helpful, I think, because defencemen with equal value to us could have vastly different valuations on the market.
I'm not suggesting we dump Tyuts or Wiz or anyone besides the three above. A 30th overall draft choice, even in a deep draft, is not that great of an asset. Guys like Max Domi and Ryan Hartman are statistically unlikely to become top line scorers in the NHL. If you look at the 2003 draft, the picks 25-35 yielded two studs- Loui Eriksson and Corey Perry.
Well, I probably undervalued him. But here is my thought process: when we signed Wiz a year and a half ago, we offered him more than any other team did. Since then, Wiz's play is about the same as his UFA year, and the cap is coming down. The only way a team would be willing to increase their bid for him, while the cap is coming down, is if they have a peculiar team need. That brings me to Detroit, but I still don't see them giving us a first rounder for him.
You should know, though, that I love Wiz, and would hate to see him play for the Wings. He brings me out of my seat when he pounds it. He has a lot of fight to him, and I never doubt that he hates losing. He seems to summon rage into unleashing the cannon.
Uh, moving 2 of your top 4 is blowing up your defense. At least to a certain extent. Especially when you are replacing them with kids. Trading one is ok, trading two? Too soon for that, but I said that on page 2 I think.
alphafox
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Well stated. And for the record, I don't have much problem with your valuation other than Wiz (I think your off by miles on that one). I'd disagree about the value of the late first second round draft picks. A look through the drafts post 2003 and you see guys taken after 25 like Mike green, Vlasic, Stasny, Perron, Subban, John Carlson, RoR, etc. As you said, these late picks are often not first liners but they can be (on a surprisingly regular basis) or more likely they become solid contributors for the second line. Right now we have no top 6 talent. There is not a player on this roster that I would put on the second line of Pitt, Bos, Chi, etc. We need 1st AND 2nd line talent.
Also these draft picks are not only valuable for the players that they can bring in, but also the flexibility that it gives us to move up in the draft. Often the price of moving into the 10-20 range in the first round is a late First rounder and a second or third round pick. So the question to me is as much the pick itself, as getting ourselves ready to be aggressive and grab the guys we like on draft day.
(BTW, I'll bet you internet cookies that Max Domi becomes a first liner
. He is a fantastic forward who like a number of other guys (Shinkaruk, Mantha, Erne, Compher) is getting lost behind the extremely talented forwards at the top of this draft.)Well stated. And for the record, I don't have much problem with your valuation other than Wiz (I think your off by miles on that one). I'd disagree about the value of the late first second round draft picks. A look through the drafts post 2003 and you see guys taken after 25 like Mike green, Vlasic, Stasny, Perron, Subban, John Carlson, RoR, etc. As you said, these late picks are often not first liners but they can be (on a surprisingly regular basis) or more likely they become solid contributors for the second line. Right now we have no top 6 talent. There is not a player on this roster that I would put on the second line of Pitt, Bos, Chi, etc. We need 1st AND 2nd line talent.
Also these draft picks are not only valuable for the players that they can bring in, but also the flexibility that it gives us to move up in the draft. Often the price of moving into the 10-20 range in the first round is a late First rounder and a second or third round pick. So the question to me is as much the pick itself, as getting ourselves ready to be aggressive and grab the guys we like on draft day.
(BTW, I'll bet you internet cookies that Max Domi becomes a first liner
I'll take you up on that bet, but first we have some defining to do. The easiest way to quantitatively define a first liner is as a player in the top 90 scoring forwards in terms of points. A second liner goes 90-180, and so forth. This has its limitations, obviously (Patty Bergeron does not equal Brad Boyes), but its consistent and close enough.
I'll bet you that Domi isn't in the top line cohort for more than five years. I'd put the odds at 40%.
BTW, under these definitions we do have some second liners- Brass, Duby, maybe more. If they were playing with Crosby, I'd think they'd outscore Dupuis.
EspenK
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- Sep 25, 2011
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I think that any trade for a D-man has to be evaluated on its own.
All of this goes back to your philosophy as to how to build a contending team.
From where I sit, if we completely revamp at least 2/3 of the top 6 forwards,(leaving Dubi & AA) replacing them with guys who actually belong there and add a top notch goalie then I think we have the beginnings of a pretty decent team. If we have to trade Wiz or Tyutin or Nikitin to aid in doing so then I say go for it. None of those three, imo, are critical to becoming a contender. JJ, Moore,Erixon, Murray are who I would think are the cornerstones of the D in the years to come.
If i'm rebuilding this team, I don't want to go from 30th to 26th to 22,to 18,18,16 (out in 4) 18, 19, 15 (out in 5) or some similar path.
I'd much rather go 30,29.29,16 (out in 6), 10,make 2nd round at least), real contender.
To keep a couple of experienced D-men around for a few extra wins does several things- it deprives young guys from gaining some experience-probably provides a few extra wins and a worse draft choice (although this hasn't been really obvious to me how this helps so far this year).
Call it tanking if you like but I think that when you have the jackets history and current roster that is the way to go.
Consider that many, including some here, have referred to us as being like an expansion team. If you buy that, how would you move forward? The way we did the first time around or trying something different?
All of this goes back to your philosophy as to how to build a contending team.
From where I sit, if we completely revamp at least 2/3 of the top 6 forwards,(leaving Dubi & AA) replacing them with guys who actually belong there and add a top notch goalie then I think we have the beginnings of a pretty decent team. If we have to trade Wiz or Tyutin or Nikitin to aid in doing so then I say go for it. None of those three, imo, are critical to becoming a contender. JJ, Moore,Erixon, Murray are who I would think are the cornerstones of the D in the years to come.
If i'm rebuilding this team, I don't want to go from 30th to 26th to 22,to 18,18,16 (out in 4) 18, 19, 15 (out in 5) or some similar path.
I'd much rather go 30,29.29,16 (out in 6), 10,make 2nd round at least), real contender.
To keep a couple of experienced D-men around for a few extra wins does several things- it deprives young guys from gaining some experience-probably provides a few extra wins and a worse draft choice (although this hasn't been really obvious to me how this helps so far this year).
Call it tanking if you like but I think that when you have the jackets history and current roster that is the way to go.
Consider that many, including some here, have referred to us as being like an expansion team. If you buy that, how would you move forward? The way we did the first time around or trying something different?
Derek Zona has Tyutin's trade value at "1st round pick plus Teemu Hartikainen or 1st round pick plus Martin Marincin or Magnus Paajarvi."
If he is talking about the Oiler's first rounder this year (which he doesn't specify), plus Paajarvi, then this looks like great value.
Paajarvi is starting to play a lot more physical, to go along with his amazing speed. He is a faster version of Foligno, though not as naturally pugnacious.
If he is talking about the Oiler's first rounder this year (which he doesn't specify), plus Paajarvi, then this looks like great value.
Paajarvi is starting to play a lot more physical, to go along with his amazing speed. He is a faster version of Foligno, though not as naturally pugnacious.
Xoggz22
Registered User
I have to be honest... I would take Edmonton's 1st this year and Paajarvi if that was the case. Personally I think I would prefer to move Nikitin at this point but he's not played well of late and his value is likely not that high. Tyutin's contract could be a negative for some but probably not Edmonton given Whitney comes off the books if I recall correctly and they have a few other bottom pair guys that are up for new contracts.
Interesting. I don't want to be completely barren of veterans, especially on D, but moving Tyutin would be OK for the right deal in my opinion. This might work for me.
I absolutely would not move Johnson barring MASSIVE overpayment. One of: Wiz or Tyutin should be moved and replaced with a more defensive defenseman. If Tyutin goes, Nikitin can go too. I'd move Aucoin at the deadline if he'll waive his NMC.
punk_o_holic
Registered User
Marincin could be a good player in the NHL but since we already have a lot of young defenders, Blue Jackets will/should pass on him.
I would be happy with Hartikainen or Paajarvi. As a Oilers fan, I would hate to lose either of them though.
I agree, one player I would want from Edmonton is Smid but he is a UFA after this season. I think Edmonton will try to lock him up and last I heard, he likes the city.
I think he would to get a chance at a Cup.
I would be happy with Hartikainen or Paajarvi. As a Oilers fan, I would hate to lose either of them though.
I agree, one player I would want from Edmonton is Smid but he is a UFA after this season. I think Edmonton will try to lock him up and last I heard, he likes the city.
I think he would to get a chance at a Cup.
EspenK
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- Sep 25, 2011
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I'll take your Russian ranking at face value. I'll just say he is lucky that a whole bunch of other D-men were born elsewhere.
