What to do about the blueline?

[Fred Glover]

I think Holden is probably all he is going to be. Classic tweener, excellent AHL'er, good enough to call up when necessary, not quite good enough to stick on a good team.

Savard, how do you teach foot speed? I know there are skating coaches etc. but there is an old adage, you can't teach size and you can't coach speed. Or something like that.

I heard JD on Sirius XM last week talking about how one (Holden?) was sent down because he needed to get stronger, while the other (Savard) was sent down because he needed to get quicker. He never named the players, but you could tell which one he was talking about, so perhaps he thinks that both can continue to develop. He seemed high on Holden, saying he knows what he needs to do to develop strength so he can get back.

 

[NotWendell]

I heard JD on Sirius XM last week talking about how one (Holden?) was sent down because he needed to get stronger, while the other (Savard) was sent down because he needed to get quicker. He never named the players, but you could tell which one he was talking about, so perhaps he thinks that both can continue to develop. He seemed high on Holden, saying he knows what he needs to do to develop strength so he can get back.

He also sounded like he's about done with Savard.

 

[jacketsinDC]

Definitely don't do what people on the main forum are suggesting. If jarmo trades jack johnson i'll follow JJ. guy should be the captain next year, he's dynamic, a mountain of muscle, and the only regularly exciting person on the roster to watch. maybe give the younger third pairing a few of those 28 minutes a game.

I think its a wait and see situation with the blue line, though i'd be glad to see ROR offersheeted or acquired for some combo of the underachieving forwards (umberger, brassard, both) plus the rangers 1st (having a quality defensively skilled center would help).

 

[OldGoaltender]

I don't think JJ goes anywhere but I wouldn't be surprised if we move Tyutin and even Wiz. Either one or both of those would net another first rounder. I'd also think RJ will be gone by the deadline also.

 

[alphafox]

I personally think we see Tyutin and Niki6 out the door at the trade deadline. Each could net at least a 2nd round pick. Each players game suffers greatly when the other is out of the line-up and being required to field a D pairing is less than ideal.

I doubt that Wiz gets moved due to what his right handed shot brings to the table (our PP looks alot better with him out there, though still not "good").

 

[Dednimnepo]

The only defensive concern I have is in goal. When was the last time a CBJ goalie put up a wall and stoned the other team or stole a game with a few key saves? I want the hope that the breakaway against isn't going to end up in the back of the net.

As far as the D-men I'd leave them alone this year. Keep rotating up the prospects. Next year we'll be better even without a trade. That said, if an offer comes along take it but no reason to dump anyone.

 

[3074326]

I saw the thread on the trade boards about moving Johnson.. I assumed there was no real reason to think that would happen. Other than the advanced stats thing, are there rumblings of this? I see it as a backwards move..

 

[EDM]

No, I see no chance that Johnson would be moved.

 

[postalpez]

No, I see no chance that Johnson would be moved.

I'm with you unless the trade is vast over payment.

 

[Mayor Bee]

I think Holden is probably all he is going to be. Classic tweener, excellent AHL'er, good enough to call up when necessary, not quite good enough to stick on a good team.

Savard, how do you teach foot speed? I know there are skating coaches etc. but there is an old adage, you can't teach size and you can't coach speed. Or something like that.

It's thinking like that that saw Rico Fata and Jeff Heerema get picked in the first round the same year as Mike Rupp, Mathieu Biron, and Scott Parker.

 

[JACKETfan]

I think Holden is probably all he is going to be. Classic tweener, excellent AHL'er, good enough to call up when necessary, not quite good enough to stick on a good team.

Savard, how do you teach foot speed? I know there are skating coaches etc. but there is an old adage, you can't teach size and you can't coach speed. Or something like that.

Every team needs a #4 (think Methot) so HoldON.

Foot speed isn't as important to a Dman(Klesla for example). Stick. Shot blocking. Passing. Good on boards.

Our context here is "guys to let develop". Dmen can take a few years.

 

[Viqsi]

Foot speed isn't as important to a Dman(Klesla for example).

The way this team is currently built, foot speed is extremely important for a defenseman. We're heavily dependent on blueline skill and mobility because that's pretty much where the entirety of our transition game is. Heck, that's why the idea of trading Savard is actually being given thought rather than rejected as the height of blasphemy nowadays.

And frankly, I think that's a good thing and would prefer to keep it that way. Just add similarly speedy skilled forwards so we don't always have to have one of the blueliners carry the damn puck in or otherwise constantly dump-and-chase and suddenly we have a scary team.

 

[EspenK]

The way this team is currently built, foot speed is extremely important for a defenseman. We're heavily dependent on blueline skill and mobility because that's pretty much where the entirety of our transition game is. Heck, that's why the idea of trading Savard is actually being given thought rather than rejected as the height of blasphemy nowadays.

And frankly, I think that's a good thing and would prefer to keep it that way. Just add similarly speedy skilled forwards so we don't always have to have one of the blueliners carry the damn puck in or otherwise constantly dump-and-chase and suddenly we have a scary team.

Actually, we have a scary team right now. I agree that making the changes you suggest would increase (start) the scary factor to other teams.

 

[Jackets16]

I don't want us to trade Johnson and I don't think we will, but I would be okay with it if that is what Jarmo wants to do. We brought him in to make our team better. I am okay with trading Johnson if he thinks trading him will help do that.

 

[EspenK]

I don't want us to trade Johnson and I don't think we will, but I would be okay with it if that is what Jarmo wants to do. We brought him in to make our team better. I am okay with trading Johnson if he thinks trading him will help do that.

Have to believe there are no untouchables on this team. Some will take more for them to be dealt than others but if the offer is right I think they go.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

I don't want us to trade Johnson and I don't think we will, but I would be okay with it if that is what Jarmo wants to do. We brought him in to make our team better. I am okay with trading Johnson if he thinks trading him will help do that.

I haven't seen enough of thius guy to just give him carte blanche with regards to my opinions on what he doesn or doesn't do. I'm with you, though, in the idea that I will hope whatever gets done, even if I don't support it, will make the team better.

 

[Skraut]

How do you solve a problem like the Blue Line?
How do you catch a cloud and pin it down?
How do you find a word that means the Blue Line?
A flibbertijibbet! A will-o'-the wisp! A clown!

Many a thing you know you'd like to tell them
Many a thing they ought to understand
But how do you make them stay
And listen to all you say
How do you keep a wave upon the sand

Oh, how do you solve a problem like the Blue Line?
How do you hold a moonbeam in your hand?

When I watch them I'm confused
Out of focus and bemused
And I never know exactly where I am
Unpredictable as weather
they're as flighty as a feather
they're a darling! they're a demon! they're a lamb!

they'd outpester any pest
Drive a hornet from its nest
they could throw a whirling dervish out of whirl
they are gentle! they are wild!
they're a riddle! they're a child!
they're a headache! they're all angels!
they're our D!

Oh, how do you solve a problem like the Blue Line?
How do you hold a moonbeam in your hand?

 

[Nordique]

In hockey statistics definitely are indicative of future results, +/- can get out of whack fast, but over time the stats don't lie

Thats the rub, Over time. Its hard to define how much history we need, but more often than not I see stats used prematurely.

FWIW, hockeyanalysis.com ranks our forwards, in 5vs5 situations, in this order

Boll
McKenzie
Foligno
Letestu
Anisimov
Dubinsky
Umberger
Prospal
Calvert
Brassard
Dorsett
Johansen

I can't even argue. Sadly, the 4th line looks like our best line most nights (with the exception of 11-17-71). I hope this is an example of insufficient sample size. None of these guys have logged 200 minutes of ice time yet. The top 4 are the only ones with positive ratings on the HART(offensie and defensive metric) scale.

Defenseman:

Erixon
Goloubef
Nikitin
Tyutin
Wisniewski
Johnson
Moore
Aucoin


Again, the bold indicates a positive rating on the HART scale. Maybe its a small sample situation here as well, but imo the Russians are our best pairing...despite Nikitin playing below his capabilities (imo).

 

[Jackets16]

Thats the rub, Over time. Its hard to define how much history we need, but more often than not I see stats used prematurely.

FWIW, hockeyanalysis.com ranks our forwards, in 5vs5 situations, in this order

Boll
McKenzie
Foligno
Letestu
Anisimov
Dubinsky
Umberger
Prospal
Calvert
Brassard
Dorsett
Johansen

I can't even argue. Sadly, the 4th line looks like our best line most nights. I hope this is an example of insufficient sample size. None of these guys have logged 200 minutes of ice time yet. The top 4 are the only ones with positive ratings on the HART(offensie and defensive metric) scale.

Defenseman:

Erixon
Goloubef
Nikitin
Tyutin
Wisniewski
Johnson
Moore
Aucoin


Again, the bold indicates a positive rating on the HART scale. Maybe its a small sample situation here as well, but imo the Russians are our best pairing...despite Nikitin playing below his capabilities (imo).

Does this stat take into account who is on the ice from the other team when these players are on the ice?

 

[Nordique]

Does this stat take into account who is on the ice from the other team when these players are on the ice?

Yes, and it accounts for the strength of the players' line mates as well.

Here is an excerpt...

Hockey Analysis Player Ratings
In February 2013 the ratings were updated to a new scale. Instead of 1.00 being an average hockey player, 0 is. One should interpret [Shot,Fenwick,Corsi]HARO ratings to mean that when the player was on the ice his team had x% (where x is his rating) more goals [shots, fenwick, corsi] for than expected (as determined by his quality of team mates and quality of competition). This means that a positive value means more goals were scored than expected and a negative value means less goals were expected. A positive value indicates the player boosted his teams offensive performance while a negative value means he was a drag to his teams offense.

For defensive [Shot,Fenwick,Corsi]HARD ratings the effect is opposite. One should interpret the HARD ratings to mean that when the player is on the ice his team gave up x% (where his rating is x) fewer goals [shots, fenwick, corsi] than expected (as determined by quality of teammates and opposition).

So, a 10 HARO rating indicates the player boosted his teams expected goal scoring rate by 10% and a 10 HARD rating indicates the player reduced his teams expected goals against rate by 10%.

The [Shot,Fenwick,Corsi]HART ratings are simply the average of the HARO and HARD ratings.

 

[Jackets16]

Yes, and it accounts for the strength of the players' line mates as well.

Here is an excerpt...

Thank you.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

How do you solve a problem like the Blue Line?
How do you catch a cloud and pin it down?
How do you find a word that means the Blue Line?
A flibbertijibbet! A will-o'-the wisp! A clown!

Many a thing you know you'd like to tell them
Many a thing they ought to understand
But how do you make them stay
And listen to all you say
How do you keep a wave upon the sand

Oh, how do you solve a problem like the Blue Line?
How do you hold a moonbeam in your hand?

When I watch them I'm confused
Out of focus and bemused
And I never know exactly where I am
Unpredictable as weather
they're as flighty as a feather
they're a darling! they're a demon! they're a lamb!

they'd outpester any pest
Drive a hornet from its nest
they could throw a whirling dervish out of whirl
they are gentle! they are wild!
they're a riddle! they're a child!
they're a headache! they're all angels!
they're our D!

Oh, how do you solve a problem like the Blue Line?
How do you hold a moonbeam in your hand?

Oskraut Hammerstein III

 

[major major]

I could agree to this. But no need to dump Savard and Holden. Let them develop.

Some of our defencemen have to go through trade, or we will start losing them to waiver claims. I'm not sure how quickly we have to move, but a couple guys should go by summer.

I have read a lot of different claims about trade value, here is my guess (feel free to correct), in terms of 2013 draft picks:

JJ -------15th-40th overall
Wiz ---- none, contract too big. Maybe Detroit would do a 7th, but thats heretical.
NikNik -- 20th-50th overall. So inconsistent, but he has a good contract.
Tyuts --- 30th-40th
Aucoin -- Maybe 7th rounder, he might play better in playoffs. Move him.
Moore --- 15th-30th. Won't be moved.
Savard -- 40th-90th. Move him before he loses more value.
Holden -- 150 or higher. Move him or lose him on waivers.
Golo ----- 50-80.
Erixon ----15-30.

I think I read Major Bee say that Tyuts and Nikitin would fetch us multiple firsts. This might have been closer to true in the summer after the hockey prospectus article that put them up there with Suter-Weber and Girardi-Mcdonagh, but now it looks crazy. They have been turnover machines this year, and other teams have scouts.

BTW, that article is why we had so many Edmonton fans making trade proposals for Nikitin last summer. They assume Americans don't know hockey.

 

[EDM]

Anyone who thinks we can get only a 7th round pick for a guy who has a RH cannon shot on the PP probably would be targeted by Edmonton for a "deal".

 

[major major]

Anyone who thinks we can get only a 7th round pick for a guy who has a RH cannon shot on the PP probably would be targeted by Edmonton for a "deal".

Edmonton is building towards a championship window. Wiz's contract runs right through it, and at 5.5 per, he would prevent them from signing a defenceman who isn't a turnover machine. They would pay to get rid of him.