What Steven Stamkos career could have been?

[TheBig08]

If steven stamkos never broke his leg would he have been on a ovechkin like goal scoring pace during his career?

im asking becuase before he broke his leg he was scoring alot of goals.

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[tabness]

I don't know if he'd age like Ovechkin in terms of always hitting 50, not just cause of aging but cause of the natural evolution of a player in his situation with his team having so many weapons as he aged that he didn't need to carry the burden of scoring as much, but yeah, Stamkos pre leg injury, what a beauty

one of the very few new NHL players I really like

one of the great guys in the league I think he's become so underrated and underappreciated

 

[MadLuke]

Stamkos could become a bit of a mix of well known and what if....

He did really goes a bit under the radar in the context of how much he scored and the franchise success.

The 2010 and 2014 Olympics was really bad timming, many playoff run burned, so many of those could have written his name in the hockey history stone missed all along.

 

[DitchMarner]

His scoring longevity is very impressive, but people seem to be dismissive of his recent years because of the perceptions that he has benefitted a lot from a strong team/good talent around him and that he can't really be an offensive catalyst anymore. I think he's had a great career for himself. I'm not sure how much better he would have done without breaking his leg. If he had had another two or three years of being a top five scorer and the kind of prime longevity he's had, you have to think he would have a very compelling case for being in the top 100 All-Time even with a lackluster (for a superstar) playoff career.

 

[Michael Farkas]

I assume he would have been much more interesting before the leg. We got a much less robust version who was the worst playoff player of his generation. It's too bad.

 

[The Panther]

I assume he would have been much more interesting before the leg. We got a much less robust version who was the worst playoff player of his generation. It's too bad.

Not this again...??

As statistical analysis (probably by @pnep but I can't remember) has shown, Stamkos' playoff scoring takes an only slightly larger-than-average dip in the post-season. It's hardly catastrophic.

Just the facts that Stamkos...
-- scored 11 playoff goals on a Cup winner
-- has 101 points in 128 playof games

...pretty much rules him out of this conversation as "worst".

 

[Michael Farkas]

Name worse vs expectation. The film shows a virtual non-participant. Was he ever a top 5 player on these legit Tampa teams? Not for me.

 

[SillyRabbit]

I mean let's not forget that his peak was back-to-back seasons of 2nd in NHL scoring at ages 21 and 22.

He wasn't just a goal scoring machine, he was producing with the best of them.

The leg injury really derailed him and forced him to adapt his game, which to his credit, he did pretty well.

You don't just luck your way into leading your team in scoring by 21 points while finishing 7th in league scoring at age 31.

 

[The Panther]

Name worse vs expectation. The film shows a virtual non-participant. Was he ever a top 5 player on these legit Tampa teams? Not for me.

 

[tabness]

View attachment 912244

for real lol

in the first covid cup run he played like three shifts total or something and still managed to score an absolutely beauty vintage Stammer goal

in the second cup yeah he wasnt great and was overshadowed by several of his teammates

in the third finals run in 2022 i thought he was one of the best Tampa players he became an everything player for the team

 

[sr edler]

That was the 4th finals run, not the 3rd. In the first one in 2015 he was substantially outplayed/outproduced in the finals by 20-year old rookie Teuvo Teräväinen. That team btw was largely propelled by the emerging Triplet Line out of Syracuse, New York.

When people say he's been underwhelming in the playoffs (compared to his supposed stature) it's because he's been outproduced in various runs by teammates like Tyler Johnson (2015) and Ondrej Palat (2022).

He's been on several very long SC playoff runs, most often on a team loaded with offensive unicorns, but he still hasn't hit 20 points in a playoff run, which is borderline impressive in itself, especially being stapled to that power play. And this is someone where the scoring/numbers is supposed to be the bread & butter.

What may be an underrated aspect of Stamkos is his leadership ways. Always when I listen to this guy in pressers he comes across very mature and level-headed. A guy like Kucherov on the other hand could never be captain on any successful team IMO, just way too grumpy, immature and emotional.

 

[The Panther]

When people say he's been underwhelming in the playoffs (compared to his supposed stature) it's because he's been outproduced in various runs by teammates like Tyler Johnson (2015) and Ondrej Palat (2022).

Nobody said he's been underwhelming. Someone has said he's the single worst playoff performer of a generation, which is clearly absurd.

As to single playoff runs... er, so what? Crosby and Malkin were both outproduced by Phil Kessel, a non Hall of Famer, in 2016. In 2013 and 2015 combined (back to back playoffs), Ovechkin was outscored by Joel Ward. It happens. Palat is a good player who had a good playoff run. (Not sure what's the point of bringing up Johnson, whom Stamkos massively outscores in playoffs.)

Since 2020, the Lightning's goals-per-game leaders in the playoffs have been:
0.52 - Point
0.47 - Stamkos
0.38 - Palat
0.29 - Kucherov
0.27 - Gourde

Scoring 0.47 goals per game in the playoffs over 50+ games is really, really good.

I'm gonna go out on a limb here and suggest that a guy who scored 11 goals in a playoff run, was team captain, and won the Stanley Cup, probably isn't the worst playoff performer of a generation.

 

[K Fleur]

VS expectations is the key.

I don’t think anybody would have much bad to say about Stamkos playoff performances post 2020, but by then most people had realized Stamkos was/is at best the 5th most important player on his team.

It’s his performances when he was arguably a top 4 player in the league that are horrible.

 

[Michael Farkas]

Since 2020, the Lightning's goals-per-game leaders in the playoffs have been:

Yeah, if we have to be this surgical (just these years, include the one shift/one goal piece), it's already a lost cause haha

Then our resident Lightning fan, @The Macho King comes in and goes, "yeah, extremely disappointing in the playoffs...invisible when we needed him most, more often than not."

Even with the advantage of having his F U goals (the 4-1 power play goal with a minute left) and getting to play playoff Sergei Bobrovsky as much as he did - where you get the moveable object vs the stoppable force - no one is falling for the cherry pick. Like, this all just happened. We don't have to wonder. If you don't want to say he's the worst...fine, I don't care...but he's an awful playoff player as far as stars go in the history of the game.

 

[sr edler]

(Not sure what's the point of bringing up Johnson, whom Stamkos massively outscores in playoffs.)

Johnson was outplaying Stamkos in 2015, the whole playoffs, by a significant margin, or massively (to borrow a term of your own). The point of bringing this up is to highlight that whenever Tampa were successful in the playoffs, during Stamkos' time there, there was always a forward teammate (or often multiple forward teammates) outplaying him. Two of them were Johnson and Palat (in different runs), another one was semi-washed up Lecavalier in 2011. So not only players of peak Kucherov calibre (which would be understandable and not a particular slight), or even a Point.

So he scored 11 goals in a run stapled to a PP with Hedman, Kucherov and Point. I don't really care. That's far less impressive than you think it is. Stamkos was pretty good in the 2022 playoffs (on a stacked team), but many people have had pretty good playoff runs (on stacked teams).

 

[MadLuke]

In 2022 Stamkos was 5th among Tampa forward in 5v5 ice time.

So he scored 11 goals in a run stapled to a PP with Hedman, Kucherov and Point. I don't really care.

9 of his 11 goals were a 5v5, single one on the PP which considering he took 26 shots on the PP could be seen as a plus or minus sentence.

He had good number, but 5th in ice time on your own team among forward, possibly out of the top 4 more important player on that team, was it a better playoff run than Palat ?

That being graded on a curve for an all-time great in a subject that started being comparing him to Ovechkin.

Perfectly fine for an out of prime post 30 player obviously, but he had a 106 points season where he was about the most used forward in the regular season, that feel like a bit of a relative drop.

 

[JackSlater]

I'm not a Stamkos fan. I've seen him called an empty calories scorer, and I do agree with that. To be fair, that's much more of an indictment of post-leg injury Stamkos. Before his leg injury Stamkos was legitimately the second best goal scorer in the NHL, sometimes best, and with stiff competition in Ovechkin. Didn't play much defence or add really anything outside of offence, and for some of his big years he had St. Louis operating as the actual offensive driver on his line. Still seasons like 2012 were exemplary to his credit.

I find Stamkos a unique case in that he was unlucky with an obvious career altering injury, in that he was never as good after he broke his leg, but he also ended up with incredible luck in terms of who he could play with. Stamkos is one of the Canadian star forwards who was deployed as a centre even though he played like a winger. He was fortunate enough to end up getting a lot of time with St. Louis early on, a rare elite playmaking winger who contributed offensively much as a regular centre would and allowed Stamkos to do what he did best, and then later on when Tampa Bay became a deep offensive team (Stamkos didn't need to carry the load) and allowed Stamkos to consistently have strong linemates and elite support on the power play. I'm curious about what Stamkos looks like in 2014 and 2015 without the leg break. Through 16 games (broke his leg in the 17th game) in 2014 he had 23 points (14 goals) and I recall that he looked really good, as I was paying attention with the Olympics coming up. Then in 2015 he still finished second in goals despite coming off the leg injury and St. Louis' tantrum that saw him leave Tampa Bay. Individually he remains a "what if".

I just think he's a guy who is less than his numbers look. Without the leg break he obviously still ages well since he has aged fairly well anyway and is a noted hard worker off the ice and as boring as a potato. Maybe he has a Hart season in 2015 with a healthy leg and no St. Louis on his team. He'll still end up with over 600 goals, probably comfortably above, so it's been a great career.

 

[Crosby2010]

Did his speed really drop off with the broken leg (was it 2014 I believe?). I guess it did a bit, but it isn't as if he's stopped scoring goals. He scored 40 last year as a 33 year old. He has scored 555 goals in his career. Do people realize he has scored that much, because that is darn good. Honestly, I am not sure how much more he could have scored. He really has never stopped scoring. He hit 60 in 2012, but injury or not I am not sure he does that again. Did 50 another time. Even in 2015 he was 2nd in goals. 4th in 2019. He's always been a very good to great goal scorer. This has always been his forte.

Now, the playoffs are a different story. You can say that they have been underwhelming, and they have. 2011 you were sort of waiting for him to be the guy to carry them, but it was St. Louis and Lecavalier. 2015 this was definitely "his" team, or it should have been. But it took him 9 games before he finally scored a goal. That is very un-Stamkos. And he had a mere 1 assist in the Cup final vs. Chicago. This was a 6 game series and Tampa had a 2-1 series lead. This was a perfect time to shine. Then Tampa goes to Game 7 of the semis vs. the Pens but loses. Stamkos only managed to play in Game 7 of that series. So he did nothing. Then he took a backseat in 2018 to other teammates and in the semis didn't have a point in the final three games, and again this was a 7 gamer. 2019 2 points in a stunning sweep at historical levels. 2020 they win the Cup but he plays one game. Scored a goal sure, but he played 3 minutes. 2021 is where he did alright. Passable and very much contributing. But still behind Point and Kucherov. And when Point went down with an injury in 2022 what happened? Tampa didn't threepeat. I know it was Colorado's time, and Tampa winning three in a row would be hard, but the biggest issue they had was Point getting hurt. So Point gets hurt and they don't win, but it just never seemed to matter as much if Stamkos was hurt. They would still do well. I don't know, from a standpoint of opportunity and being on good teams he is basically Thornton in the playoffs but with the Cups. I don't know why either. He should be a guy who had at least one dominant run.

It won't stop him from being remembered as a great player, regardless of what he does on Nashville, but I agree that he is down the pecking order on the Cup teams.

 

[JackSlater]

Did his speed really drop off with the broken leg (was it 2014 I believe?). I guess it did a bit, but it isn't as if he's stopped scoring goals. He scored 40 last year as a 33 year old. He has scored 555 goals in his career. Do people realize he has scored that much, because that is darn good. Honestly, I am not sure how much more he could have scored. He really has never stopped scoring. He hit 60 in 2012, but injury or not I am not sure he does that again. Did 50 another time. Even in 2015 he was 2nd in goals. 4th in 2019. He's always been a very good to great goal scorer. This has always been his forte.

Stamkos seemed visibly slower, especially less quick, after it. He made a lot of short burst plays during his peak years and couldn't do it as well afterward. No one is saying that he broke his leg and ceased being an NHL calibre player, but he did cease being historically interesting. In consecutive years, starting at 19, he went 1, 2, 1, 2 in goals and 5, 5, 2, 2 in points. On paper that's one of the best ever for his age. The day before he broke his leg he was tied for first in goals and scoring. It's not the same player afterward.

 

[Matsun]

Stamkos since his first injury

2015-2024	GP	P	PPG	PPG rank
Crosby	722	827	1,15	7th
Malkin	627	664	1,059	12th
Stamkos	672	711	1,058	13th

Since his second injury

2018-2024	GP	P	PPG	PPG rank
Crosby	490	569	1,16	9th
Stamkos	496	555	1,11	12th
Malkin	439	464	1,05	15th

Thats pretty much were I would expect him to be even without injuries.

 

[LightningStorm]

If he never had that terrible leg injury, he likely would've surpassed 600 goals by now, possibly approaching 650. Not only the time he lost, but also before that injury, he was more of a catalyst offensively not only with his speed, but also going into high danger areas for scoring chances more. Once he suffered that injury though that part of his game largely went away. Having watched him regularly, the difference definitely jumped out. Another thing that could've helped him challenge Ovechkin more for the Richard in those years is the team around him was getting better.

Speaking of his team improving, one thing I've always pointed out about Stamkos and his playoff performance is things can get really distorted if you forget that the Lightning didn't start making deep playoff runs consistently until after his leg injury. In his first 5 seasons pre injury, he only made the playoffs once. How pre leg injury Stamkos would've been as a playoff performer is definitely a what if I've thought about, as well as if the Lightning win a cup during any of their 3 deep playoff runs from 2015-2018 if that injury never occurs.

I tend not to think too much about the what ifs though when thinking back to the 2017 offseason, when it looked like injuries might doom his career the way they did for Lecavalier. But in 2018 was the start of a revival, both in his stats as well as finally winning the cup. Now he's exceeded 1,100 points and with 2 more healthy seasons he'll reach 600 goals. Outside shot at 650, depending on how he fits in in Nashville.

 

[DRW895]

This player gets too much honor. Just imagine what cringesteria begins, if Tampa missed 2025 postseason. Many people will make wrong conclusion like "without his 40 goals team goes down". But in fact, when TBL struglled in 2023/24 Stamkos was bad, except some rare moments like 4 goals against EDM. He corrected his stat by the end of regular season, when TBL was in safety. Hagel was much better in even strength, Stamkos wasn`t TBL leading goal scorer. He was just guy with "C" that he never deserved.
He`s star player, but not real franchise stone

 

[MadLuke]

Many people will make wrong conclusion like "without his 40 goals team goes down". But in fact, when TBL struglled in 2023/24 Stamkos was bad,

I feel this is starting from the conclusion, if Tampa was winning when Stamkos was bad, would you have not said:

Many people will make wrong conclusion like "without his 40 goals team goes down". But in fact, when Stamkos struggled TBL was perfecly fine, him being good is not necessary and does not impact their success.

 

[The Panther]

He was just guy with "C" that he never deserved.

Unless you are a team insider or you regularly travel / eat / bus with the team, you are entirely incapable of determining whether the given player "deserved" to be captain or not.

 

[DRW895]

I feel this is starting from the conclusion, if Tampa was winning when Stamkos was bad, would you have not said:

Well, no fantasies about future.
When TBL missed postseason in 2017 many people connected it with Stamkos missing nearly entire season. Maybe those people didn`t want to see, that TBL had the same number of points with western SC finalist NSH and ignore how raw TBL made postseason with Stamkos missing 60% of regular season 2013/14.