OT: What Really Saddens Me about the Karlsson Trade

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

Absolutely appalling that we traded Hoffman so quickly for absolutely nothing just to appease Karlsson who we still later traded anyway.

Absolutely horrific how we opted to draft Tkachuk even though we knew Karlsson was gone and next year's top 5 is much better.

The only saving grace is if Karlsson leaves SJ, signs with us or someone else, and we finish outside the top 5 and Colorado picks closer to top 10 than top 5.

That's the only saving grace. But no way could have Dorion operated this way not knowing Karlsson was as good as gone. Did he think too that we'd be selling the team but it fell through? I am confused.

Ugh absolutely brutal. If Karlsson signs an extension with SJ within the next couple months then Dorion has made the worst deal in NHL history.

 

[NyQuil]

If Karlsson signs an extension with SJ within the next couple months then Dorion has made the worst deal in NHL history.

Karlsson signing in SJ doesn't change anything from our end, only on San Jose's.

We traded him on a one-year contract.

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

Karlsson signing in SJ doesn't change anything from our end, only on San Jose's.

We traded him on a one-year contract.

If he signs so soon it means he had some inclination of signing there to begin with and Dorion could have gotten more based on that premise. If Karlsson was strictly adamant he was not gonna sign with SJ at all then the deal becomes somewhat palatable knowing Dorion was operating on a deadline with just 1-2 teams who weren't in Karlsson's future outlook.

 

[NyQuil]

If he signs so soon it means he had some inclination of signing there to begin with and Dorion could have gotten more based on that premise. If Karlsson was strictly adamant he was not gonna sign with SJ at all then the deal becomes somewhat palatable knowing Dorion was operating on a deadline with just 1-2 teams who weren't in Karlsson's future outlook.

If Karlsson says he's not going to sign in San Jose and then signs in San Jose, I'm not sure how that's Dorion's fault.

Dorion blew the trade but I don't think Karlsson made it any easier. Of course, he had no obligation to do so.

 

[DaveMatthew]

If Karlsson says he's not going to sign in San Jose and then signs in San Jose, I'm not sure how that's Dorion's fault.

Dorion blew the trade but I don't think Karlsson made it any easier. Of course, he had no obligation to do so.

Pierre Lebrun said on TSN tonight that Karlsson is going to take his time to see if he and his wife like San Jose, and not to expect decisions any time soon.

So I don't think he knows himself.

With that said, San Jose is a great place to play and live, and they've had no trouble keeping their own stars. The only guy I can remember leaving by choice is Brian Campbell. So it wouldn't surprise me.

The hopeless optimist in me says that Karlsson is waiting for the Alfredsson-led ownership group. The realist says he'll still end up in Tampa next year.

 

[Micklebot]

.

Ugh absolutely brutal. If Karlsson signs an extension with SJ within the next couple months then Dorion has made the worst deal in NHL history.

Ok, what about, Karlsson signs an extension, fan support in ottawa reaches a new low and Melnyk is forced to sell. New white knight owner swoops in and buys the team. Karlsson then gets traded to an eastern team for some reason, who then promptly flips him to Ottawa . SJ wins the cup in spite of this some how, and then disintegrates the next season and comes in last for the next 4 years.

That would net us a top 3 2020 pick for making the playoffs in 2019, a top 3 pick 2021 1st round pick for winning the cup in 2019, and then a top 3 pick in 2022 1st round pick for being traded to the east.

Dare to dream

 

[NyQuil]

Ok, what about, Karlsson signs an extension, fan support in ottawa reaches a new low and Melnyk is forced to sell. New white knight owner swoops in and buys the team. Karlsson then gets traded to an eastern team for some reason, who then promptly flips him to Ottawa . SJ wins the cup in spite of this some how, and then disintegrates the next season and comes in last for the next 4 years.

That would net us a top 3 2020 pick for making the playoffs in 2019, a top 3 pick 2021 1st round pick for winning the cup in 2019, and then a top 3 pick in 2022 1st round pick for being traded to the east.

Dare to dream

Karma would suggest that this should happen after the year we had.

 

[Micklebot]

Karma would suggest that this should happen after the year we had.

I think we're still working off the bad karma for tanking to get Daigle.

It would be nice to have the luck Boston did after trading Kessel to the leafs though

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

Im willing to bet bettman is gonna somehow get us to land Lafernarie or whatever his name is to save the franchise and keep it in Ottawa

 

[JD1]

Hard to know that because we don't have the contract structure.

We don't know if it was front loaded, back loaded, bonus laden, included a NTC or NMC, we just have that it was believed to be 8 years at 11 mil. The truth is, you can structure a contract in a way that it really isn't in good faith,

For example, if the potential lockout years are maxed out (I believe for an 11 mil per year deal, the max a given year could be in real dollars would be 22 mil) and no bonus is included, the contract is far less inciting as that 8 year 88 mil deal could become a 7 year 66 mil deal if the lockout takes out that year. Alternatively, if it didn't include a ntc or had a weak ntc, it would be hard to view it as good faith offer.

Obviously, you can argue Karlsson created some of the circumstances because he didn't sign a deal that was offered, but we don't have the full details to know if it was reasonable for him to refuse or not, if the deal was fair or just done for optics. We just don't have the facts

you are 100% correct. we don't have the facts. And in that situation, isn't it hard to concretely blame one side?

 

[JD1]

Ok, what about, Karlsson signs an extension, fan support in ottawa reaches a new low and Melnyk is forced to sell. New white knight owner swoops in and buys the team. Karlsson then gets traded to an eastern team for some reason, who then promptly flips him to Ottawa . SJ wins the cup in spite of this some how, and then disintegrates the next season and comes in last for the next 4 years.

That would net us a top 3 2020 pick for making the playoffs in 2019, a top 3 pick 2021 1st round pick for winning the cup in 2019, and then a top 3 pick in 2022 1st round pick for being traded to the east.

Dare to dream

hey I thought things weren't turning legal until next month. you getting an early start? lol

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Im willing to bet bettman is gonna somehow get us to land Lafernarie or whatever his name is to save the franchise and keep it in Ottawa

La - fren- iere

 

[JD1]

Absolutely appalling that we traded Hoffman so quickly for absolutely nothing just to appease Karlsson who we still later traded anyway.

Absolutely horrific how we opted to draft Tkachuk even though we knew Karlsson was gone and next year's top 5 is much better.

The only saving grace is if Karlsson leaves SJ, signs with us or someone else, and we finish outside the top 5 and Colorado picks closer to top 10 than top 5.

That's the only saving grace. But no way could have Dorion operated this way not knowing Karlsson was as good as gone. Did he think too that we'd be selling the team but it fell through? I am confused.

Ugh absolutely brutal. If Karlsson signs an extension with SJ within the next couple months then Dorion has made the worst deal in NHL history.

I think we traded Hoffman to be rid of Hoffman. jmo but I think he was a goner whether or not there was a spouse issue.

 

[Ray Kinsella]

Boy is dorion getting lynched here . This was a fair value trade for a player with questionable foot issues and probably leaving after a year. If norris and balcers pan out like they are projected dorion will be vindicated .

I personally hope they do. But what if they don't...?

 

[Ray Kinsella]

Wait... was that Boro and family?

 

[swiftwin]

Ok, what about, Karlsson signs an extension, fan support in ottawa reaches a new low and Melnyk is forced to sell. New white knight owner swoops in and buys the team. Karlsson then gets traded to an eastern team for some reason, who then promptly flips him to Ottawa . SJ wins the cup in spite of this some how, and then disintegrates the next season and comes in last for the next 4 years.

That would net us a top 3 2020 pick for making the playoffs in 2019, a top 3 pick 2021 1st round pick for winning the cup in 2019, and then a top 3 pick in 2022 1st round pick for being traded to the east.

Dare to dream

Exactly.

Everyone always wants to point out the worst case scenario, but never wants to admit the best case scenario in these "Captain Hindsight" assessments of trades. If that were the case, people would constantly be hailing the trade we made to acquire Karlsson in the first place as the greatest trade in the history of Hockey (Erik Karlsson from Nashville to Ottawa for Chet Pickard and Taylor Beck).

Re: Duchene trade. Honestly, nobody in their wildest dream could have predicted the way we collapsed after the Duchene trade, nor could they have predicted Melnyk completely shutting things down two months after the trade and forcing Dorion to sell everyone, including Karlsson. If you constantly worry about these crazy black swan scenarios, you'll never ever make a trade.

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

I think we traded Hoffman to be rid of Hoffman. jmo but I think he was a goner whether or not there was a spouse issue.

I agree, but the return was horrific.

 

[albator71]

Came here to say this. The 5-15 age range won't be affected by this. It's the 15-25 range. Those for whom they really starting paying close attention to the team roster, cap, draft, etc around 2005-2008. Probably first becoming fans in the SCF/Pizza Line era, and having Karlsson as one of the first player's they've seen drafted by us. For them, Karlsson is like their first love. They're also old enough to understand the nature of why Karlsson got traded.

I agree with that because im 47 and i dont have the same "affection" for Karlsson as younger fans do. For me he was just another player. He was exciting to watch but im not devastated that hes gone.

 

[Gil Gunderson]

Im willing to bet bettman is gonna somehow get us to land Lafernarie or whatever his name is to save the franchise and keep it in Ottawa

He’ll end up being the next Daigle because f*** having nice things.

 

[Micklebot]

you are 100% correct. we don't have the facts. And in that situation, isn't it hard to concretely blame one side?

my suspicion about what happened is based on all the details I know, but of course I am open to the possibility that things didn't occur as the seem to have.

-It's possible that the sens weren't trying to trade Karlsson back at the Trade deadline, and it was all made up by the media.
-it's possible that when Dorion decided with Melnyk to rebuild, he didn't figure out who to keep as part of the core until for four months.
-It's possible that the team negotiated with Karlsson prior to Jul 1st despite the constant refrain from Dorion that they can't offer him a contract till 1 Jul.
-It's possible that Karlsson strung the team along and never wanted to stick around.

The problem though is that the team lost a lot of credibility when it implied they couldn't negotiate with Karlsson until 1 Jul. It lost a lot of credibility when they said they claim to have decided to rebuild in Feb, then traded Hoffman for warm bodies instead of futures. It lost credibility when it tried to give the appearance that Karlsson was to blame for any move with the whole "we will offer him a contract on Jul 1st"

So while a lot of things are possible, it's understandable why many are leaning one direction. Karlsson may have been part of the problem, but outward appearances are that he was a very small part.

 

[Micklebot]

Exactly.

Everyone always wants to point out the worst case scenario, but never wants to admit the best case scenario in these "Captain Hindsight" assessments of trades. If that were the case, people would constantly be hailing the trade we made to acquire Karlsson in the first place as the greatest trade in the history of Hockey (Erik Karlsson from Nashville to Ottawa for Chet Pickard and Taylor Beck).

Re: Duchene trade. Honestly, nobody in their wildest dream could have predicted the way we collapsed after the Duchene trade, nor could they have predicted Melnyk completely shutting things down two months after the trade and forcing Dorion to sell everyone, including Karlsson. If you constantly worry about these crazy black swan scenarios, you'll never ever make a trade.

I mean, the best case scenario is pretty damn unlikely in this case. SJ is only dealing Karlsson to the east if the return it can get from an eastern team is a 1st round pick more than the return from a western team, and that's before even considering the reality that they are really unlikely to trade him.

Also, the trade to move up for Karlsson, really? It was the pick that was great, not the trade. we traded undeveloped picks not known players.

 

[Flamingo]

If I’m an owner and my star player says he won’t sign unless I sell the team, I trade the player. Maybe I don’t have the self-awareness to see I’ve alienated more than that player.

 

[JD1]

my suspicion about what happened is based on all the details I know, but of course I am open to the possibility that things didn't occur as the seem to have.

-It's possible that the sens weren't trying to trade Karlsson back at the Trade deadline, and it was all made up by the media.
-it's possible that when Dorion decided with Melnyk to rebuild, he didn't figure out who to keep as part of the core until for four months.
-It's possible that the team negotiated with Karlsson prior to Jul 1st despite the constant refrain from Dorion that they can't offer him a contract till 1 Jul.
-It's possible that Karlsson strung the team along and never wanted to stick around.

The problem though is that the team lost a lot of credibility when it implied they couldn't negotiate with Karlsson until 1 Jul. It lost a lot of credibility when they said they claim to have decided to rebuild in Feb, then traded Hoffman for warm bodies instead of futures. It lost credibility when it tried to give the appearance that Karlsson was to blame for any move with the whole "we will offer him a contract on Jul 1st"

So while a lot of things are possible, it's understandable why many are leaning one direction. Karlsson may have been part of the problem, but outward appearances are that he was a very small part.

I think there are a lot of possibilities for sure

if you go rebuild you can't simply ice a bunch of minor leaguers and getting Boedker back provides a legit nhler. the return on that trade wasn't great but neither were the circumstances which didn't favour ottawa. my take based on everything I've read is Karlsson is a part of the rebuild but not with an open cheque book. I realize that the terms of a contract impact a contract but by all accounts the AAV offered was in the ballpark. I saw someone post maybe a bunch of the contract was in the lockout year.... anything is possible but that is rather unlikely. more likely imo is a rising salary throughout the contract that aligned better with anticipated revenue as the move to Lebreton would have happened in the back half of the deal. it's a business. that's the business reality of this franchise. a front loaded deal is likely something we didn't have the money for with the new arena on the horizon. it all strikes me as money wise it was close with one side thinking this is as far as we can go and the other thinking it's not far enough. that's life. move on. based on what we got back, it'll be a few years before the real results of the trade are clear. without knowing how the prospects turn out, how the draft picks turn out, how the NHLers acquired adapt to potentially larger roles, whether Karlsson signs and we get another pick. it's fashionable right now to shit on ottawa and the media have done that consistently since last December. They've been wrong on pretty much everything EK related since then. I'm quite good with watching this play out and assessing what we have rather than declaring winners and losers right now, especially so because I'm not in a rush to condemn everything this franchise does.

 

[Sensung]

Karlsson signing in SJ doesn't change anything from our end, only on San Jose's.

We traded him on a one-year contract.

Incorrect.
We traded him knowing it could be a one year situation or a 9 year situation. The deal has a provision to deal with the latter scenario.
Our GM calculated that the compensation for 8 years of EK was a 2nd round draft pick.

Sheer brilliance of that kind should never be ignored.

 

[Samboni]

I predict that EK signs with the Sharks. That’s the nature of the business. It’s the dawn of a new season so I’m moving on from this. EK is gone.