What probability do you feel Ovechkin has to catch Gretzky now?

[Minar]

you could put tavares in the 80s and he wouldn’t be the goat.

We gotta stop putting players in other eras to beef them up. Should we put Nylander in the 40s and say 'wow he's the GOAT look at him destroy these 40s players.' Lol

 

[Dondini]

So Howe counts but Gretzky doesn't?

if you think 894 is better than 802 considering eras played I don’t know what to tell you. Howe didn’t play in massive scoring eras. But he also played forever. Ovy will be the greatest goal scorer in history with 802. Case can already be made with 9 rockets but overall totals do matter as well

 

[coopooter]

Not gonna happen. Time is gonna start creeping up pretty quick in the next couple of years.

 

[abo9]

Hang on apparently I got flagged with a warning for being unclear in my response.

Let me try again: if Ovi gets close I could definitely imagine his teammates constantly feeding him, similar to what they did with Kobe Bryant in his retirement game that netted him 60 points

Oooof that was more on me than you, I know Kobe Bryant was a big deal but did not know of this particular story haha.
And makes sense, like I said it would not surprise me that a team sits him on the bench just for that PP shot even if he's done (but then depends on if HE wants to play).

I also imagine that him breaking the record would generate significant revenues for the franchise (or even the league as a whole?) in terms of merch, coverage and memorelia (I'm tired...) ? Like, there's probably money to be made from him breaking the record, I'm sure a struggling franchise would take it if he agrees to sign with them.

 

[Kaners Bald Spot]

If Ovi passes Howe there's a legit argument for him being the GOAT goal scorer. Goalies are as good as they've ever been.

I never thought Ovi would catch Gretzky but, I believe(and still do) that he will pass Howe.

 

[Dustin]

He has 9 rockets. He's already the greatest goal scorer....

 

[Mick Riddleton]

He has 9 rockets. He's already the greatest goal scorer....

You are not the best till you beat the best, right now Ovie is just an average player on the Caps. Being 7th is not #1

 

[peteyforharrt]

Still bitter about Gretzky not signing in Vancouver I see?

You must be like 60 years old

 

[The Panther]

The same chance that I thought a couple of years ago -- about 5%.

Age gets everyone at some point. It's just a question of when.

If Ovechkin continues to have a Gordie Howe-like physical stamina / resiliency and he can keep up his passion for the game even if Washington declines in the standings and he's 10 years older than most teammates, etc., then he still has a small but fair chance. But if either of those things doesn't happen, then zero chance.

 

[Ninjadude]

Zero chance..! None! Zilch..! Nada gonna happen!

 

[jcs0218]

You are not the best till you beat the best, right now Ovie is just an average player on the Caps. Being 7th is not #1

 

[T REX]

Pretty low...under 10%...maybe under 5%

He looks like he's about to fall off the cliff.

Amazing player and scorer.

 

[T REX]

I personally think Ovechkin will keep playing until he catches Gretzky, even if it takes him until 45 years old to do it.

I don't think it will take him until 45, but my point is that he will keep playing until he breaks it.

Does anyone believe he will actually retire if he is only 10-20 goals away?

So he'll just float from team to team for the league minimum as a PP specialist.

His game is in decline. He's going to start having to take major pay cuts and playing time.

Time is NOT on his side.

 

[jcs0218]

So he'll just float from team to team for the league minimum as a PP specialist.

His game is in decline. He's going to start having to take major pay cuts and playing time.

Time is NOT on his side.

I have a feeling he would take those pay-cuts and cuts to playing time if it meant he broke the record.

I have a feeling that the goal-scoring record means a lot to him.

 

[Staniowski]

I dont know what the chances are, but if he were to have 5 relatively healthy seasons after the current season, it's possible he could do it. He would be 40 years old....and he might keep playing beyond that.

But it's impossible to predict....injuries can be a big issue as a player gets older.....as well as natural decline.

 

[KrisLetAngry]

20% chance could be a slump.

Guys the greatest goal scorer ever regardless if he gets 1. Or 2. In total goals.

 

[CokenoPepsi]

10-15%

I think he still passes Howe for sure

 

[Riddum]

He's also doing all of this with full body armour. It's a lot easier to be fearless when you're not wearing leather elbow pads and shoulder pads not too much bigger than what women wore under their blouses at work.

Remember the equipment of the 80's?

Could he even shoot with a wooden stick?

True. The equipment was garbage.

I think Ovi could still shoot with a wooden stick. He's not like the midgets or barely 175lbs dudes using the flex to snap the puck. The dude was incredibly explosive athlete in his prime. We haven't seen too many of them in hockey. He had unreal size and explosiveness and that was even more rare

 

[oilexport]

The great 8 is close, but their is only one, great one.

 

[MVP of West Hollywd]

Ovi is not made to have the best longevity ever. Crosby is the better candidate to be killing it like Brady and Lebron as an older guy.

 

[jcs0218]

Ovi is not made to have the best longevity ever. Crosby is the better candidate to be killing it like Brady and Lebron as an older guy.

Crosby and Brady are friends too.

 

[blueandgoldguy]

Probably close to zero at this point. With that said, around 5 years ago I thought Ovi would "only" score 725-750 goals. At that time, I thought he might have one more 45-50 goal season in him, surrounded by 3 or so seasons in the mid-30s and seasons in the low to mid-20s thereafter. Instead he has had 48,49,and 51 goal seasons in that period surpassing my expectations. Maybe he will find another gear and score at a higher pace for the rest of the season...or maybe not?

As it stands, he was starting to become more of a goal scoring specialist in recent years compared to his peak during which he created as many scoring chances for others. He is one of the greatest goal scorers of all-time (top 3 for sure imo), but not the greatest. That distinction belongs to Bobby Hull.

 

[Johnny Rifle]

He is one of the greatest goal scorers of all-time (top 3 for sure imo), but not the greatest. That distinction belongs to Bobby Hull.

It's so hard to compare eras, you could also have considered Mike Bossy or Maurice Richard and I'd have no problem with it. However, if Ovechkin does break Gretzky's record, it would be near impossible to dispute that he's the best all things considered.

 

[JasonRoseEh]

Laughable take. Ovechkin wouldn't have knees to skate on and if he tried that spear in the 80's, he wouldn't have a head either.

The best thing is he wouldn't need to and Ovechkin is as durable a player as the league has ever seen. Stop acting like guys didn't get away with garbage all the time, especially star players. Messier was dirtier than hell and never had to fight anyone while still being protected. Again, laughable.

 

[TJ Hooker]

Not zero, but not much higher.