Player Discussion What is the solution to this teams consistency problem?

[Tuna99]

Seems pretty obvious by both every single underlying stat, and my own eyes the direction this team is going.
The goaltending may be costing us games but the team in front of them is playing great hockey most nights.

Ottawa’s already played 20% of their season which is crazy when you think about it. Goalies need to get going fast or luck will start to become part of the playoff picture fairly quickly (injury, hot streaks ie Hamburgler / Karlsson just drags the team into the playoffs, good trade)

on this 4 game homestand if either goalie shows you a sign of life he could get all 4 starts or 3 of 4 starts and if Forsberg becomes the starter all season after this little home stand I dont think Green will flinch to make a move like that.

Greens played the “I love both my goalies” card so well from pre season, if Forsberg becomes the starter there won’t be a goalie controversy because:
1. Nobody in Ottawa will bat an eye because we like Ullmark but I’m not waiting around for him to show up, he has 5 years to find his game he can work on it in practice
2. Green has the license from the fans to make the playoffs under almost any legal conditions, the players can sort their feelings out later

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

Ok bud. The team is currently tied with the Islanders (by p%) for the last playoff spot. Meanwhile, they've had the 6th best expected goal differential in the league, meaning they'll likely regress to the mean, which means their record should improve. Not only that, but they've had one of the toughest schedules so far this season:
View attachment 932597

Are they making the playoffs for sure? Of course not. Only a few teams get to say that. But this is by far the best chance we've had since the rebuild, and the odds appears to be greater than 50%. Ullmark clearly doesn't need to be Vezina caliber. We just need him to be league average, and we should make the playoffs. If he's Vezina caliber, we're looking at a top 2 finish in the division.

Your little emotional hedge routine is getting old. We get it, you shit on the team so that you win one way or another. Either you're happy because the team does well, or you get to say 'told you so' to everyone. It's a pretty cowardly thing to do.

Heck depending on how things shape up, Ullmark can have a below average season and still we'd finish top 3 in the division.

 

[HSF]

Pretty sure they already have

already have what?

We were .500 last year in dec. We need to be better

 

[Micklebot]

already have what?

We were .500 last year in dec. We need to be better

We're currently in the wild card spot by win%, you can't evaluate things in a vacuum because the context is completely different.

Last year, on 19 Nov, the two Wild card spots (by pts%) were Phi (.583%) and Det (.559). TBL were out at .556, and we had .533. That threshold held to the end of the year, when a pts% of .555 held the final wild card spot, and a .500 record had you 5 spots back.

This year, the wild card spots are held by teams at .500. The eastern conference is just more competitive at the moment, so 500 doesn't mean the same thing it meant last year. Idk if it will stay that way, would be pretty crazy if it did, but it's the reality we live in.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

already have what?

We were .500 last year in dec. We need to be better

For now forget points and % ..
Are we better base on your eye test?

They are by mine.
If we had consistently average goaltending the points would be better,
The underlying numbers are better .. our defensive play is better ... The points should sort themselves out with improved goaltending and if we keep playing the same ... This is an EMO reaction thread

 

[dumbdick]

More consistency

 

[Xspyrit]

It's true that we had a tough schedule so far, plus Pinto, Zub and Perron all missing several games at the same time played a part. But that's the thing, I don't think we have good depth at forward. I like the depth on D if JBD is #6 and Hamonic #7 (although I would have liked Brannstrom still in the mix)

Forward Paces per 82 games :

Elite level : Stutzle 102 Pts, Tkachuk 92 Pts

Star level : Batherson 77 Pts

Top-6 level : Giroux 58 Pts, Norris 58 pts

Secondary scoring level : Gaudette 41 Pts, Pinto 27 Pts, Greig 24 Pts

Role player level : Cousins 20 Pts, Amadio 20 Pts, Gregor 16 Pts, MacEwen 16 Pts

Depth level : Perron/Ostapchuk 7 Pts

Our Top-5 is obviously really good but outside of unexpected Gaudette's production, our scoring depth is severely LACKING. Let's hope that Perron gets going and Pinto/Greig improve their production. Not expecting much from the rest

 

[Micklebot]

It's true that we a tough schedule so far, plus Pinto, Zub and Perron all missing several games at the same time played a part. But that's the thing, I don't think we have good depth at forward. I like the depth on D if JBD is #6 and Hamonic #7 (although I would have liked Brannstrom still in the mix)

Forward Paces per 82 games :

Elite level : Stutzle 102 Pts, Tkachuk 92 Pts

Star level : Batherson 77 Pts

Top-6 level : Giroux 58 Pts, Norris 58 pts

Secondary scoring level : Gaudette 41 Pts, Pinto 27 Pts, Greig 24 Pts

Role player level : Cousins 20 Pts, Amadio 20 Pts, Gregor 16 Pts, MacEwen 16 Pts

Depth level : Perron/Ostapchuk 7 Pts

Our Top-5 is obviously really good but outside of unexpected Gaudette's production, our scoring depth is severely LACKING. Let's hope that Perron gets going and Pinto/Greig improve their production. Not expecting much from the rest

The fourth line are all scoring pretty well, you don't typically expect your 11th or 12th forward to score much more than 15-20 pts.

The only guys I'm looking to get more out of are Pinto, and Giroux. Maybe Greig to a lesser degree. I'm not counting Perron since he's a bit of an exceptional circumstance right now.

 

[Xspyrit]

The fourth line are all scoring pretty well, you don't typically expect your 11th or 12th forward to score much more than 15-20 pts.

The only guys I'm looking to get more out of are Pinto, and Giroux. Maybe Greig to a lesser degree. I'm not counting Perron since he's a bit of an exceptional circumstance right now.

yeah but Pinto missed 8 games and Perron missed 11 games so guys like Amadio and Gregor got more TOI as a result.

Amadio has averaged 14:29 per game, 12:22 at ES and 1:01 on the PP. That's not 4th liner TOI

Gregor has averaged 13:07 per game, 11:19 at ES. That's also not typical 4th liner minutes

Their TOI must have been higher in games Perron and Pinto didn't play. Cousins, Ostapchuk and MacEwen play 4th line minutes, it's ok I guess

 

[PlayOn]

It's true that we had a tough schedule so far, plus Pinto, Zub and Perron all missing several games at the same time played a part. But that's the thing, I don't think we have good depth at forward. I like the depth on D if JBD is #6 and Hamonic #7 (although I would have liked Brannstrom still in the mix)

Forward Paces per 82 games :

Elite level : Stutzle 102 Pts, Tkachuk 92 Pts

Star level : Batherson 77 Pts

Top-6 level : Giroux 58 Pts, Norris 58 pts

Secondary scoring level : Gaudette 41 Pts, Pinto 27 Pts, Greig 24 Pts

Role player level : Cousins 20 Pts, Amadio 20 Pts, Gregor 16 Pts, MacEwen 16 Pts

Depth level : Perron/Ostapchuk 7 Pts

Our Top-5 is obviously really good but outside of unexpected Gaudette's production, our scoring depth is severely LACKING. Let's hope that Perron gets going and Pinto/Greig improve their production. Not expecting much from the rest

I would add I don’t think we are getting enough production from our dmen 5v5 either. Kleven and Hamonic have a point each and Sanderson has only produced on the PP. Our dmen have 3 combined goals this season.

 

[Micklebot]

yeah but Pinto missed 8 games and Perron missed 11 games so guys like Amadio and Gregor got more TOI as a result.

Amadio has averaged 14:29 per game, 12:22 at ES and 1:01 on the PP. That's not 4th liner TOI

Gregor has averaged 13:07 per game, 11:19 at ES. That's also not typical 4th liner minutes

Their TOI must have been higher in games Perron and Pinto didn't play. Cousins, Ostapchuk and MacEwen play 4th line minutes, it's ok I guess

Well, the fourth line I was referring to was MacEwen, Gaudette, and Cousins. They've been great.

A third liner should probably give us between 26-44 pts if he plays all 82, that's roughly 193rd to 288th in pts/g last year (40+ games played) among forwards which corresponds to 3rd line expectations. Wrt ES icetime, 193rd is 13:06, and 288th is ~11:33. Not every 3rd liner should be expected to be in that range, some will be above and some below, so Amadio is just above the high end, Gregor is just below the low end

As for them not having typical 4th line linemates, our most common 3rd line this year has actually been Amadio-Ostapchuk-Gregor, though they do have about 18 mins with Ostapchuk replaced by Pinto (which arguably is why Pinto's numbers are lower than expected).

I'm not overly concerned if either comes up a few pts shy of third line expectations, Gregor shouldn't and likely won't be on our third line if everyone is healthy, and Amadio is the 9th forward, so expectations should be on the low end of 3rd liner.

 

[Wondercarrot]

Ottawa’s already played 20% of their season which is crazy when you think about it. Goalies need to get going fast or luck will start to become part of the playoff picture fairly quickly (injury, hot streaks ie Hamburgler / Karlsson just drags the team into the playoffs, good trade)

on this 4 game homestand if either goalie shows you a sign of life he could get all 4 starts or 3 of 4 starts and if Forsberg becomes the starter all season after this little home stand I dont think Green will flinch to make a move like that.

Greens played the “I love both my goalies” card so well from pre season, if Forsberg becomes the starter there won’t be a goalie controversy because:
1. Nobody in Ottawa will bat an eye because we like Ullmark but I’m not waiting around for him to show up, he has 5 years to find his game he can work on it in practice
2. Green has the license from the fans to make the playoffs under almost any legal conditions, the players can sort their feelings out later

Yeah I agree with all this, really just making the point that the F and D are doing everything that was asked them/they wanted to do.
I can’t really say I have any complaints this year other than it would be nice for the goalies to play their abilities or at least average. (Which I think they will on the balance. )

 

[HSF]

For now forget points and % ..
Are we better base on your eye test?

They are by mine.
If we had consistently average goaltending the points would be better,
The underlying numbers are better .. our defensive play is better ... The points should sort themselves out with improved goaltending and if we keep playing the same ... This is an EMO reaction thread

We look better but we also had a ton of games are the start of last year which we looked better than our opposition.

Not getting rattled and choking away wins is def a skill of a good team which we have yet to show

We also need to see better consistent production at 5 on 5

 

[HSF]

this team is trending down the shitter in nov like last year

 

[L'Aveuglette]

No consistency issue with this team. Nope.

 

[Micklebot]

Step one is to get some saves, a goalie keeping you in a game when you don't get off to a good start gives you confidence,

 

[Filatov2Kovalev2Bonk]

Unfortunately the team is a bunch of misfit toys.

Our "D" is a collection of quite capable support (Zub), mediocre replacements (Hamonic) and good upside players (Chabot, Jensen, Bernard-Docker) who aren't elite. We'd need an absolute stud #1 to calm the waters every night, but trading for one would involve parting with either Tkachuk or Stu...not sure Staios wants that.

Our "F" is pretty good but overall we're lacking cohesion and unified speed.

Coaching is fine, for the most part, but maybe hiring more assistants to deal with individual issues might help things somewhat. Don't envy Staios his long-term plans, that's for sure.

 

[coladin]

You can slice it however you want. Blame Ullmark. Not getting a timely save. Hamonic. The captain. Chabot. You can name every reason you want , but if you want to have consistency, there is one critical ingredient you need ... and I am begiining to see the reality here.

This team has no heart.

You can't play like they did against Toronto and NYR and then do this. Tonight was last year's team again. They finally showed up.

No heart. Gutless

 

[DackellDuck]

Step one is to get some saves, a goalie keeping you in a game when you don't get off to a good start gives you confidence,

Get some saves and capitalize on your opportunities.

According to MoneyPuck, we’ve let in 6 goals more than expected (6th worst in the league), and scored 2 goals less than expected (12th worst in the league).

That, in a nutshell, is why we’re 8-10 instead of 10-8.

 

[robsenz]

already have what?

We were .500 last year in dec. We need to be better

You misread my post. It's already cost the team. Same old, Same old

 

[HSF]

Step one is to get some saves, a goalie keeping you in a game when you don't get off to a good start gives you confidence,

its much more than this if you have been watching the game. Team gets rattled so easily. The quick goal once we made it 1-1 was predictable

 

[Answer]

Step one is to get some saves, a goalie keeping you in a game when you don't get off to a good start gives you confidence,

How many goalies do you want to switch up and Blame? We are on our 3rd or 4th goalie now. Apart from our goalies can't make saves, is the fact that our Team can't make defense and continuously give the other Team great scoring chances.

I said it last year that no matter how good of a goalie you bring it, he will play exactly like Korpi and Forsberg(from last year), and that is exactly what is happening, so far, with Ullmark

 

[Yak]

You know I was trying to figure out what's this team's problem. Consistency definitely a problem, but unfortunately I think it's a roster construction issue. I don't want to get into it right now but fun to put together a big what is wrong with this team.

I know most of you and we've all been pulling our hair out for years because there's some really great players on this team. However, a team is lacking in a couple of areas. I don't know that they're easy. Fix this, but they certainly also tie into the lack of Team identity.

Anyways, we all have our opinions on what it could be. I better find some stats to back it up where I look like a monkey. However, I think we're all pretty frustrated with the situation and looking for an answer on ice. I don't know if there is one right away.

I don't know about you guys but I think even if they strung along 10-20 wins this team is not built to go deep in the playoffs. Heck, it's not even built to get into the playoffs the way we're going.