What is Schaefer's value compared to Misa's value in term of draft capital

[dmcccdmn]

I personally think Schaefer and Misa are very similar level players, and it wouldn't be shocking to see either of them go 1OA. The opinion among analysts seems to be fairly consistent about Schaefer 1OA, but I also think Misa is right there, it's far from a lock. I think it's totally possible the Isles prefer Misa, and simply pick him, no trading down.

Also, FWIW, I think the next tier, which I have as Martone and Hagens, is pretty close to the top 2. And even the tier after that, which I have as Frondell, Desnoyers and maybe McQueen (depending on team doctor's opinions) isn't far off either.

Overall I see this draft as similar to 2017, where there isn't a clear #1, but there is a good amount of quality near the top. 2017 looked like:

1. Nico Hischier
2. Nolan Patrick
3. Miro Heiskanen
4. Cale Makar
5. Elias Pettersson
6. Cody Glass
7. Lias Andersson
8. Casey Mittelstadt
9. Michael Rasmussen
10. Owen Tippett
11. Gabriel Vilardi
12. Martin Necas
13. Nick Suzuki

(top 6 forwards/top 4 dmen bolded)

And I see this draft shaking out kind of similarly - a bunch of talent throughout the first ~1/3 of the first round, mostly hits, but not the "top 1-2 guys a clear tier above the rest" situation that you see in plenty of drafts.

Very spot on in every point of your post. Good post.

 

[majormajor]

Grier shouldn't make a big offer. It wouldn't be worth it. He's still firmly in rebuild mode, and its not like offering the Islanders will be banging the door down for the veterans that the Sharks have. Not for a first overall pick anyway, I'm sure they wouldn't mind Mario Ferraro or Tyler Toffoli to help their playoff aspirations for next year, but those aren't 1st overall trade bait. Grier should just be patient, hope Schaefer falls to him, and if the Islanders take Schaeffer, then take the top forward on your sheet, and prepare for the Gavin McKenna sweepstakes, because that's what's going to change his team's fortunes around - a core of Will Smith, Macklin Celebrini, and potentially Michael Misa and Gavin McKenna. Heck, if I'm Grier, I might even have my sights on Porter Martone instead of Misa, but it still hits the same with 4 very good forwards to build around.

He's not. Schaefer isn't THAT much better than Misa. Not a mid first, and definitely not #10. Islanders would get a bigger haul trading down to 3OA or 4OA because the gap between Schaefer and Hagens/Martone is bigger than the gap between Schaefer and Misa. But then you're left with Hagens or Martone.

The average scout opinion is that there isn't a huge gap there, a gap, but you're right that it's not a huge gap.

But there is a range of opinions among scouts and I wouldn't rule out that the Sharks assessment is that there is a huge gap.

You can imagine if the Sharks view Misa as in line with their 2nd and 3rd best young forwards (very very good but Misa would not be changing the trajectory of the team much), and view Schaefer as head and shoulders above their best D and their best chance at acquiring an elite #1 D, that they should make a big offer to move up. A mid 1st is really a small price to pay for that difference in outcomes.

 

[seafoam]

If that’s the case then NY should trade the first to the Shark for their second overall and Dallas pick.

This typically does not happen, teams just take who they want…but we shall see!

 

[majormajor]

I personally think Schaefer and Misa are very similar level players, and it wouldn't be shocking to see either of them go 1OA. The opinion among analysts seems to be fairly consistent about Schaefer 1OA, but I also think Misa is right there, it's far from a lock. I think it's totally possible the Isles prefer Misa, and simply pick him, no trading down.

Also, FWIW, I think the next tier, which I have as Martone and Hagens, is pretty close to the top 2. And even the tier after that, which I have as Frondell, Desnoyers and maybe McQueen (depending on team doctor's opinions) isn't far off either.

Overall I see this draft as similar to 2017, where there isn't a clear #1, but there is a good amount of quality near the top. 2017 looked like:

1. Nico Hischier
2. Nolan Patrick
3. Miro Heiskanen
4. Cale Makar
5. Elias Pettersson
6. Cody Glass
7. Lias Andersson
8. Casey Mittelstadt
9. Michael Rasmussen
10. Owen Tippett
11. Gabriel Vilardi
12. Martin Necas
13. Nick Suzuki

(top 6 forwards/top 4 dmen bolded)

And I see this draft shaking out kind of similarly - a bunch of talent throughout the first ~1/3 of the first round, mostly hits, but not the "top 1-2 guys a clear tier above the rest" situation that you see in plenty of drafts.

I have Schaefer clearly preferred to Misa, Misa and Martone close in tier 2, and then there is a big gap down to the next group where things flatten out. So basically the opposite view.

Ex ante, 2017 had a weaker top group. Nobody was scoring 90 pts in juniors (compare it to Misa and Martone). Makar was still in the AJHL and still very raw compared to Schaefer, there was more uncertainty with Makar even compared to Schaefer with his injury.

 

[dmcccdmn]

The average scout opinion is that there isn't a huge gap there, a gap, but you're right that it's not a huge gap.

But there is a range of opinions among scouts and I wouldn't rule out that the Sharks assessment is that there is a huge gap.

You can imagine if the Sharks view Misa as in line with their 2nd and 3rd best young forwards (very very good but Misa would not be changing the trajectory of the team much), and view Schaefer as head and shoulders above their best D and their best chance at acquiring an elite #1 D, that they should make a big offer to move up. A mid 1st is really a small price to pay for that difference in outcomes.

Misa is better than Will Smith so he'll be their 2nd best Center. He'll be to Celebrini as Malkin was to Crosby. Misa will matter to that team.

I don't think you realize how bad a team the San Jose Sharks is. They are still early in their rebuild. Unlike the Islanders or Utah who jumped up 10 spots and maybe just need 1 quality star, the Sharks has holes everywhere. The Sharks need multiple forwards and multiple dmen. Misa and a mid 1st would plug some big holes. Yes, they have a big need at multiple forward positions just as much as anyone.

The argument that if Grier thinks there is a big gap between Schaefer and Misa, he should pay up to the value of that gap or even more than that gap to get Schaefer defeats the purpose of a trade if you're giving up more value than what you get in return. Especially when Misa fills one of your position of needs.

Now if Grier gives up less than what he perceives as the gap but more than what the Islanders perceive as the gap, then that makes much more sense. Someone mentioned earlier the Edgeworth Box, that makes sense.

 

[majormajor]

Misa is better than Will Smith so he'll be their 2nd best Center. He'll be to Celebrini as Malkin was to Crosby. Misa will matter to that team.

I'm giving you a hypothetical where he isn't viewed as the Malkin to Celebrini's Crosby. Obviously if the Sharks scouts and FO think that highly of him, they'll be eager to pick him, maybe even over Schaefer. There will be some different views, many of them with lower expectations of Misa than you.

I don't think you realize how bad a team the San Jose Sharks is. They are still early in their rebuild. Unlike the Islanders or Utah who jumped up 10 spots and maybe just need 1 quality star, the Sharks has holes everywhere. The Sharks need multiple forwards and multiple dmen. Misa and a mid 1st would plug some big holes. Yes, they have a big need at multiple forward positions just as much as anyone.

I realize how bad San Jose is now. But between Celebrini, Smith, Eklund, Chernyshev, Musty, Bystedt, etc.. they will have a lot of good forwards when they mature. And the standard of a good rebuild is of course not to draft 6 top six forwards, have a look at how many your typical cup winners drafted. More often teams have more of a mix of veteran signings, drafted players, and trade acquisitions.

The argument that if Grier thinks there is a big gap between Schaefer and Misa, he should pay up to the value of that gap or even more than that gap to get Schaefer defeats the purpose of a trade if you're giving up more value than what you get in return. Especially when Misa fills one of your position of needs.

You're not following me at all.

Now if Grier gives up less than what he perceives as the gap but more than what the Islanders perceive as the gap, then that makes much more sense.

Yes that is what I'm suggesting.

Someone mentioned earlier the Edgeworth Box, that makes sense.

Yes it was me.

 

[Le Rosbeef]

Lost in all this discussion is that getting one of Schaefer or Misa at No.2 outweighs any cost of moving up to 1st overall.

It's just bad business not to wait and take whomever falls to them, free of charge. Both will be integral pieces of a rebuild in San Jose and nobody knows at this stage who will have the better career. The rest is moot.

 

[Colezuki]

If we know (as you describe in the NFL scenario) that the #1 team won't take the guy you want, then it's just wasted assets. There's nothing to be gained and only potential losses. Knowing for sure is hard though. I don't know how much trust there is between GMs.

Let's say for arguments sake NYI wants Misa, and SJS wants Schaefer. Neither team knows their opponents pick. Maybe NYI could convince SJS that they want Schaefer, and try to swindle them - But then that deception would immediately come undone the moment SJS tells NYI that they would pick Schaefer, and NYI still wants to trade the pick.

More realistically; the game here would be to threaten a trade with 3 and say you’re fine with either hagens or misa that’s why nfl teams do it

 

[matt trick]

Hard to compare the NFL in that QBs have radically different value than every other player. You either have a franchise QB or you’re looking for one.

In the NHL, in a league wide re-draft i’d imagine you’d have 10 centers and 10 d drafted before the 5th winger. In the NFL, you’d have 12 QBs taken before 12 players at the other 21 positions.

I can see a decent argument for taking a 1C over a 1D. 1Cs tend to develop more consistently (Ekblad, Power, even Dahlin who was the highest projected D I can recall), are good players, but only Dahlin has a shot at a Norris. Top pairing D are also comparatively easier to find outside the top 5 picks (Faber, Lacombe, Hutson as very recent examples). The only current #1 dmen drafted top 4 are Dahlin, Heiskanen, Makar, and Hedman. Shutout to Doughty but his #1 days are over. Top 10 picks include Seider, Werenski, Hughes, Hanifin, Pietro, Hughes, and Sanderson. Other first rounders are Theodore, McAvoy, Carlsson, Karlsson, Bouchard, and Dobson.

For #1 centers: McDavid, McKinnon, Hughes, Hischier, Celebrini, Bedard, Tavares, Crosby, and Matthews were drafted at #1, and if not for guys on this list Eichel and Barkov would have been. Then you’ve got Draisaitl and Stuzle with 3rd OA. Point, Aho, Suzuki, and Hintz are the only guys I’d have ahead of Celebrini and Bedard top 15 (all near the bottom), who are not #1 picks. The field of the other 223 picks does have Cooley (3), Petterson (5), Scheifle (7), Kopitar (11), Thomas, Larkin, Hertl. If you need a franchise C, you get them top 3, and more than half the time you need to draft them at 1.

A less good but potentially relevant argument is forwards sell tickets. Also with 25 year old Dobson and Romanov, and 27 year old Barzal and 30 year old Horvat as their top skaters, I could see wanting a bit more youth at forward. The weakest argument is to draft the rare elite prospect who grew up cheering for your franchise growing up. It’s different in that he was the best prospect, but I have to admit I have a tiny bit of pride that Celebrini spent a year as a junior shark, and he has some Bay Area ties. However, I’d take a guy from Timbuktu if he was better, so this is pretty irrelevant. The ‘wore our pajamas’ thing probably doesn’t hurt retention, but there are other things you can do keep your top players, namely win.

All this makes it a bit closer, but I still think in spite of the injuries, Schaefer is a more valuable prospect. If NY agrees, they’ll pick him regardless. If it’s a truly split decision, sure I’d throw them Dallas 1st and a bit more, but if you’re 51/49 Schaefer, 28-32nd overall shouldn’t say you being able to say we got our guy.

 

[dmcccdmn]

More realistically; the game here would be to threaten a trade with 3 and say you’re fine with either hagens or misa that’s why nfl teams do it

NFL teams trade up to pick QB's because there can only be 1 QB on the field and the entire offense doesn't function without a good QB. The NHL does not have a specialized position like a QB. Good goalies are hard to figure out in a draft.

A 1D and 1C are both nice to have. In the case of Misa, the Sharks actually would be perfectly fine having Misa fall on their lap without giving up any asset. This is the draft that if you fall into 1OA or 2OA, you essential win the lottery. If I am Grier, I would explore to see how big of a gap the Islanders view the values between Schaefer and Misa. If the Islander value a 1C like Misa more and their gap is smaller than how San Jose's gap, then a draft pick that is smaller than San Jose's gap but bigger than Islanders' gap would be my offer to swap picks.

If the Islanders' gap is just as big or bigger than San Jose's gap, then I would be gladly stay at 2OA and pick Misa. There's a chance that Islanders might trade with Chicago and Chicago end up picking Misa, which is a bigger win for San Jose. I think Chicago would pick Misa over Schaefer if given a chance. If not, it's still a win for San Jose.

There's also a possibility that Grier value a guy like Martone or Hagens much more and would be willing to trade down and let Chicago pick Misa at 2OA. Martone's speed scares me though, and Hagens' size is a big negative.

 

[Canovin]

This is the year where trading down to #2 or #3 spot wouldn't be the worst idea.

 

[Fatass]

Unlike other draft years where you have Bedard, Celebrini, McKenna, there isn't a prospect this year that is head and shoulder above the 2nd best prospect, so a trade is more plausable. By all accounts, the Islanders need a forward more than anyone else. Just wondering what the fair value would be if you were to swap 1OA and 2OA? What would be the fair value that San Jose needs to give the Islanders if you're comparing the values of Schaefer and Misa, who are both studs in their own rights?

San Jose has the 2025 Dallas 1st round pick which is like 28th and their 2nd rounder which is 33rd pick. They also have Ottawa's 2nd round pick.

Is the 28th pick too much/little. Likewise, is the 33rd pick too much/too little?

Now, the Islanders might even have Misa at the top of their board so they might even be willing to take less than the fair value to swap Schaefer for Misa. But it would be good to know what that fair value is first. (This, of course, is entirely dependent on the Islanders wanting Misa. If they consider Schaefer as a generational talent, then the asking price would be skewed exponentially into un-tradable territory.)

From San Jose's perspective, if the difference in value between Schaefer and Misa is too high, they would be perfectly happy with Misa and use those 28th pick and 33rd pick to maybe trade up to 16th or 17th to get another quality prospect. There's also a real good chance Schaefer will be there at 2OA anyway.

Clubs should always draft the highest guy on their list, especially in the top 10. Drafting for position, or fit, is how clubs talk themselves into a mistake.

 

[sxvnert]

I don't think Chicago needs any more D-Men (correct me if I am wrong) so not getting the 1OA is almost a blessing.

Who does every think would be best to play with Bedard? Assume Schaefer is gone...

* I would go with Misa but you may have to trade up 1 to get him. He would be a nice fit on Bedard's left wing.

* Martone is a BIG boy and would naturally fit on Bedard's right wing - and you do NOT have to move up to get him.

* I know nothing about Anton Frondell who is a center.

* Hagens is an American kid but also a small center - you don't need another one of those.

Hawks desperately need someone to play with Bedard. Misa is the perfect pick for them.

 

[sxvnert]

I can't imagine them passing on Schaefer

Can see them swapping picks with the hawks.

 

[wedge]

From San Jose's perspective, if the difference in value between Schaefer and Misa is too high, they would be perfectly happy with Misa and use those 28th pick and 33rd pick to maybe trade up to 16th or 17th to get another quality prospect. There's also a real good chance Schaefer will be there at 2OA anyway.

both are Habs property and I guarantee you we won't trade down. That's probably the only thing we're 100% sure about.

 

[Fatass]

Can see them swapping picks with the hawks.

Definitely not. The Islanders have a chance to draft a Dennis Potvin level talent.

 

[dmcccdmn]

Can see them swapping picks with the hawks.

Yup, I think Islanders and Chicago trade is more likely than Islanders and Sharks trade. Chicago has a much higher incentive to pursue a trade up to get Misa (San Jose has less of an incentive to go from Misa to Schaefer). Islanders would be happy with Hagens.

 

[cvaicunas]

If we know (as you describe in the NFL scenario) that the #1 team won't take the guy you want, then it's just wasted assets. There's nothing to be gained and only potential losses. Knowing for sure is hard though. I don't know how much trust there is between GMs.

Let's say for arguments sake NYI wants Misa, and SJS wants Schaefer. Neither team knows their opponents pick. Maybe NYI could convince SJS that they want Schaefer, and try to swindle them - But then that deception would immediately come undone the moment SJS tells NYI that they would pick Schaefer, and NYI still wants to trade the pick.

I think the proposed scenario can be more likely in the NFL due to the QB position. The team trading up may be more in need of a QB, and given the propensity for traded draft picks, any team trading up may be doing so to defend other teams from also trading for the pick. That does not happen in the NHL very much, and so, after much needless typing, you are right.

 

[Ivan eht Demidov]

If NYI say to the sharks hey let's swap picks because we want Misa, why would SJ not just hold at 2 knowing they can then get Schaefer.

It's a bit of game theory. The only reason for SJ to swap is if they think their guy will be taken by NYI. In which case NYI would have no reason to trade.

What NYI should do is say "We are willing to move down to 2 in exchange for [x], otherwise we will be taking Schaefer", then see if SJ bites on that

 

[Beukeboom Fan]

Lost in all this discussion is that getting one of Schaefer or Misa at No.2 outweighs any cost of moving up to 1st overall.

It's just bad business not to wait and take whomever falls to them, free of charge. Both will be integral pieces of a rebuild in San Jose and nobody knows at this stage who will have the better career. The rest is moot.

I also feel like there is a significant "reputational" risk to move down. Hypothetically, if SJ moved up to take Shaefer, the NY Islander GM is forever going to be measured on that deal if Misa doesn't perform. You always have the "normal" risk of a prospect not meeting expectation, but you then also have the risk of the guy you passed on meeting/exceeding expectations. The "sweetner" to move up is unlikely to bridge that gap.

I get it if you say "GM should be most concerned about what's best for the organization", and I agree. But there are a ton of examples of GM's being more concerned about their job security than the long term health of a franchise.

 

[nerdybeard]

Imagine interviewing for the NYI GM role. First question is about your relevant experience, second is around your plans for the 1OA after a wild franchise lottery win.

While there's a lot to consider around the touted top 2 in Schaefer & Misa, there's also a lot to consider around the pressure of taking on a new GM role and how to handle the 1OA. My opinion around value & draft capital is that they're so close, the NYI will just take their pick at 1 and not play with trading down.

 

[DudeWhereIsMakar]

I personally prefer Misa because he's a solid hockey player. Schaefer will be an excellent player, but there's one big issue I see personally. I feel Misa will finish his career being the best player in the 2025 draft.

 

[miscs75]

Imagine interviewing for the NYI GM role. First question is about your relevant experience, second is around your plans for the 1OA after a wild franchise lottery win.

Second question will be if you're technologically up to date. After having a GM who used telegrams, a typewriter and rotary phone. They'll want to have someone who isn't convinced the television has x-ray waves.

 

[boredmale]

What NYI should do is say "We are willing to move down to 2 in exchange for [x], otherwise we will be taking Schaefer", then see if SJ bites on that

In an unlikely scenario what the Islanders should try is get both San Jose and Chicago to offer them something so they get their guys. That way both teams don't have to pay full price to get the guy they want, they sort of split the costs

They might be able to do SJ and Utah if Utah is interested in Misa as well

 

[57special]

I can't see a GM being in a hurry to trade out of a spot where he has the chance to pick the next Makar- actually, injury aside(which is a collarbone, not a knee, back, or concussion issue with long term repercussions), Schafer has fewer weaknesses than Makar back then. He seems to be a 'can't miss" prospect.