What is Schaefer's value compared to Misa's value in term of draft capital

[Islander Class]

NYI needs to focus on BPA-and not the current roster needs- or who's more likely to resign on Long Island 9 yrs from now.

Tavares was a "perfect storm" in that: (1) TOR was perceived to be on the rise; (2) NYI had just missed the playoffs; (3) NYI had brand new (albeit accomplished) management/coaching, and (4) NYI still had no building. (4) at least will be off the table- and impossible to know how the others shake out. Therefore, it's a waste of time IMHO to be "guarding" against things that may never come to pass...

 

[bringbacktheskate604]

That's an overpayment doubt San Jose even considers it and I prefer Schaefer clear at #1.

If the NYI draft for position then they will lose out on a franchise changing Dman.

Misa isn't as big a franchise changer for me.

One thing I haven't seen brought up yet and maybe I'm wrong but while busting or not hitting the hype can happen with any position defence seems where it happens the most.

With two players so close in talent and #1 centre being harder to draft than an LHD, I think I'd go with Misa.

It's a risk either way I guess.

 

[SenzZen]

We haven’t had a superstar Schaefer in the league since the (late) great Peter Schaefer, so I’m very excited to see how this kid develops

I also enjoy the giant video ads that pop up and block out the entire field for entering my message very cool hfboards

Peter Schaefer is still alive, fwiw.

 

[BadgerBruce]

The Islanders do not have a GM (or a President of Hockey Ops) and I have no idea who is currently in charge. If another team wanted to make a deal to land the #1 pick, who in the Islanders front office even has the authority to pull the trigger?

That’s the wildcard here.

 

[Thrasymachus]

I can't imagine them passing on Schaefer.

maybe Hagens can be OUR version of JT coming home. We will just wait til he is a free agent

 

[wetcoast]

One thing I haven't seen brought up yet and maybe I'm wrong but while busting or not hitting the hype can happen with any position defence seems where it happens the most.

With two players so close in talent and #1 centre being harder to draft than an LHD, I think I'd go with Misa.

It's a risk either way I guess.

I'd take Schaefer 8 days a week as he is really young for the draft and has shown elite ice tilting dominance out there in the OHL and against best in best tournament play.

He is a franchise altering player.

 

[majormajor]

If NYI say to the sharks hey let's swap picks because we want Misa, why would SJ not just hold at 2 knowing they can then get Schaefer.

It's a bit of game theory. The only reason for SJ to swap is if they think their guy will be taken by NYI. In which case NYI would have no reason to trade.

There is a simple scenario where a trade makes sense.

SJ has a bigger gap between Schaefer and Misa than NYI does. They call NYI to make a deal.

It's not because NYI prefers Misa, they prefer Schaefer but only slightly.

I find this sort of plausible. San Jose is loaded with high end young forwards. NYI is not, and it's possible they are myopic and want to get Misa in their lineup next year.

If I remembered my grad school education I could sketch it out with an Edgeworth Box.

I think Porter Martone would be the single-best option available for the Blackhawks as a forward that projects to have many elite or near-elite components to his offensive game in the pros.

Martone's one-touch plays and work in front of the net would definitely open space for Bedard, and that might just be what the doctor ordered for Chicago's offense.

And Martone'd help on puck retrievals too on the first line, though I don't expect Martone to ever be a primary puck-digger in the NHL as that isn't really his type of game.

The only thing that might give Chicago some pause in drafting Martone is that, so far, the Blackhawks have clearly been putting a big emphasis on speed for their forwards (Moore, Nazar, Mustard, Boisvert, Spellacy, Vanacker, etc.), and Porter Martone tracks to be basically nhl-average at that aspect of the game so that might mean that they would prefer a quicker player to play on Bedard's wing.

And a guy like Anton Frondell, who's a center that can also play wing, defensively responsible, fast, with a strong frame, some "+" skills to his game, good puck-protection abilities, and the single-best one-timer in the draft could also be a great option to slot alongside Bedard.

While Martone's skillset is higher-end offensively in my mind, Frondell has the chops of a top-6 winger or center and a much better defensive game currently than Martone, while having the type of speed and skating that the Hawks like in their prospects.

As for Schaefer/Misa, I wouldn't put much difference between the two, they both have elite potential at their respective positions.

A high second-round pick might just be enough for a team to go from 2 to 1 and get their pick of the two.

I think Martone is the best of that group, by a good margin, that Chicago should take him regardless of need factors. I see him as a star playmaker, a big time scorer.

But the pressure is on for them. They're burying Bedard right now. They really need someone who can transport pucks. They also need a strong two-way center. I can think of a few guys available who fit in those boxes, but Martone isn't one of them. He doesn't play with speed, he doesn't carry the puck much, and he's a winger and a little bit soft.

 

[miscs75]

There is a simple scenario where a trade makes sense.

SJ has a bigger gap between Schaefer and Misa than NYI does. They call NYI to make a deal.

It's not because NYI prefers Misa, they prefer Schaefer but only slightly.

I find this sort of plausible. San Jose is loaded with high end young forwards. NYI is not, and it's possible they are myopic and want to get Misa in their lineup next year.

If I remembered my grad school education I could sketch it out with an Edgeworth Box.



I think Martone is the best of that group, by a good margin, that Chicago should take him regardless of need factors. I see him as a star playmaker, a big time scorer.

But the pressure is on for them. They're burying Bedard right now. They really need someone who can transport pucks. They also need a strong two-way center. I can think of a few guys available who fit in those boxes, but Martone isn't one of them. He doesn't play with speed, he doesn't carry the puck much, and he's a winger and a little bit soft.

Is it ok if the bolded is a player who’s 6’5 but pillow soft? If so, the Islanders have the perfect winger for you.

 

[Canadienna]

There is a simple scenario where a trade makes sense.

SJ has a bigger gap between Schaefer and Misa than NYI does. They call NYI to make a deal.

It's not because NYI prefers Misa, they prefer Schaefer but only slightly.

I find this sort of plausible. San Jose is loaded with high end young forwards. NYI is not, and it's possible they are myopic and want to get Misa in their lineup next year.

If I remembered my grad school education I could sketch it out with an Edgeworth Box.

Wow I love that you brought up the Edgeworth Box.

You're right, in that case a trade could be made, but I feel like it's rare team execs/scouts ever have two guys that even. They will always find something to choose between the two.

But maybe the NYI see the potential assets gained as bigger than the difference between Misa/Schaefer/Whoever their guy is.

If I'm the NYI, I just take the guy my scouts tell me is best. Don't fumble around trying to get an extra late 1st or a few mediocre assets.

 

[majormajor]

Wow I love that you brought up the Edgeworth Box.

You're right, in that case a trade could be made, but I feel like it's rare team execs/scouts ever have two guys that even. They will always find something to choose between the two.

But maybe the NYI see the potential assets gained as bigger than the difference between Misa/Schaefer/Whoever their guy is.

If I'm the NYI, I just take the guy my scouts tell me is best. Don't fumble around trying to get an extra late 1st or a few mediocre assets.

It's only plausible if the scouts come in and say it is very close to even.

Everyone's lists will have guys that are tied on it, or at least very very close, it's just a bit less common at #1.

 

[HFpapi]

If the Isles and Sharks want the same player, the Isles won't make the trade for any reasonable add on that the Sharks could stomach. If the Isles are willing to make the trade for a reasonable price, Sharks would know they want different players and then there's no reason for Sharks to add assets to move up a spot.

Where it gets really interesting IMO is if the Isles can content themselves with the hometown boy Hagens and offer to swap spots with the Hawks at 3 for a nice tasty add on.

Then the Sharks would have to panic if they have their heart set on Schaefer and try to outbid.

 

[majormajor]

Now that I think about it I think there is also some rationale for movement between San Jose at 2 and Chicago at 3.

Chicago has a much stronger need for a center and they need someone who can carry pucks. Right now Bedard can't even get in the zone. Misa is more apt to carry pucks than Martone.

But it's also possible that Martone is viewed as the better player once you have elite players at work in the offensive zone. His passing is incredible. I could imagine San Jose viewing him as the best player to multiply the effectiveness of guys like Celebrini and Smith.

As I argued above, for a trade to make sense it would have to be the case where San Jose ranks the two prospects very close, and Chicago has a bigger gap and makes the offer.

 

[majormajor]

If the Isles and Sharks want the same player, the Isles won't make the trade for any reasonable add on that the Sharks could stomach. If the Isles are willing to make the trade for a reasonable price, Sharks would know they want different players and then there's no reason for Sharks to add assets to move up a spot.

The Sharks aren't going to know if the Isles play their cards right and insist on a good return for moving down. And it won't necessarily be the case that the Isles will prefer Misa, they just have to have a smaller gap between the two. That's enough of a reason to listen to the Sharks offers.

Where it gets really interesting IMO is if the Isles can content themselves with the hometown boy Hagens and offer to swap spots with the Hawks at 3 for a nice tasty add on.

Then the Sharks would have to panic if they have their heart set on Schaefer and try to outbid.

Hagens is not really on the table here for either club. Just not that tier of prospect. We'll see other names come in to the conversation before Hagens.

 

[dmcccdmn]

I think Grier should at least offer OTT's 2nd rounder to swap pick with the Islanders. OTT's 2nd rounder is really low, something like #53 pick. Value wise, #53 would be less than fair value and would hint to Grier that Islanders want Misa anyway. If you know Islanders want Misa anyway, I know it makes no sense to give up assets to swap picks. But given that it will be a new management and they're less likely to take risk and stray from taking BPA like Schaefer, a less than fair value compensation might just be enough to make the decision easier for them. If OTT's 2nd rounder can get it done, it's a win-win for both clubs.

It would be interesting to know what Grier feels would be fair value when comparing the value of Schaefer vs Misa.

Unlike last year's draft where picking Celebrini was a no-brainer, this year's draft will be quite interesting.

There's one suggestion that CHI might trade up with Islanders and Islanders pick homegrown Hagens. If that's the case, I wonder who CHI might most likely pick if they have 1OA, Schaefer or Misa.

 

[AnomX]

Misa no know.

 

[dmcccdmn]

There is a simple scenario where a trade makes sense.

SJ has a bigger gap between Schaefer and Misa than NYI does. They call NYI to make a deal.

It's not because NYI prefers Misa, they prefer Schaefer but only slightly.

I find this sort of plausible. San Jose is loaded with high end young forwards. NYI is not, and it's possible they are myopic and want to get Misa in their lineup next year.

If I remembered my grad school education I could sketch it out with an Edgeworth Box.

I think that is likely the case for the Islanders and the Sharks. Islanders likely weigh Misa a little higher, thus lessens the gap between Schaefer and Misa, let's call this gap A. Sharks likely weigh Schaefer a little higher, thus widens the gap between Schaefer and Misa, let's call this gap B. A draft pick that is more than A but less than B could get a trade done.

If the Sharks stands pat hoping that the Islanders want Misa more than Schaefer, they might squander it if the Islanders like Schaefer more than Misa but just barely and could be swayed with a not-so-outrageous pick.

 

[majormajor]

I think Grier should at least offer OTT's 2nd rounder to swap pick with the Islanders. OTT's 2nd rounder is really low, something like #53 pick. Value wise, #53 would be less than fair value and would hint to Grier that Islanders want Misa anyway. If you know Islanders want Misa anyway, I know it makes no sense to give up assets to swap picks. But given that it will be a new management and they're less likely to take risk and stray from taking BPA like Schaefer, a less than fair value compensation might just be enough to make the decision easier for them. If OTT's 2nd rounder can get it done, it's a win-win for both clubs.

It would be interesting to know what Grier feels would be fair value when comparing the value of Schaefer vs Misa.

Unlike last year's draft where picking Celebrini was a no-brainer, this year's draft will be quite interesting.

There's one suggestion that CHI might trade up with Islanders and Islanders pick homegrown Hagens. If that's the case, I wonder who CHI might most likely pick if they have 1OA, Schaefer or Misa.

I think that is likely the case for the Islanders and the Sharks. Islanders likely weigh Misa a little higher, thus lessens the gap between Schaefer and Misa, let's call this gap A. Sharks likely weigh Schaefer a little higher, thus widens the gap between Schaefer and Misa, let's call this gap B. A draft pick that is more than A but less than B could get a trade done.

If the Sharks stands pat hoping that the Islanders want Misa more than Schaefer, they might squander it if the Islanders like Schaefer more than Misa but just barely and could be swayed with a not-so-outrageous pick.

If Grier has a very big gap between Schaefer and Misa then I don't think offering a low value asset like a 2nd rounder is a good idea. The Islanders are unlikely to take it regardless of who they rank first or even if there is a tie on their list. Teams put a value on making the first selection, and there is a bit of a friction on trades (a transaction cost) where you are judged more harshly for trades you made than for trades you didn't make.

Grier should make a big offer. I don't think the Stars 1st is high enough either, it should be something closer to a mid first, maybe even around #10. It's a lot, but if you think Schaefer is going to be that elite and that much better then it would be well worth it.

 

[Brodeur]

Is the 28th pick too much/little. Likewise, is the 33rd pick too much/too little?

It's tough to tell for sure since it'll depend on how the Islanders draft board goes and whether they can drum up offers from Chicago and Utah (or be willing to drop that far). Draft pick value charts / draft capital works a bit better in the NFL because of the sheer number of positions. As much as I love the NHL draft, things tend to get sketchier than we like to admit by the back-half of the first round. 2025 in particular seems like a below average year and the drop off might happen a bit sooner than usual.

But just for a barometer of trades that did go down and the circumstances:

1998: San Jose traded #2 and #85 to Nashville for #3 and #29. Nashville wanted a presumed high scoring forward as their first ever draft pick. San Jose wanted a perceived cornerstone defenseman. This might be the closest scenario assuming the Islanders had Misa over Schaefer.

1999: In a year with no consensus #1, Tampa only got #4, #75, and #88 in return for the top pick. Tampa had simultaneously negotiated a deal to trade the pick to the Rangers who wanted Pavel Brendl. So Tampa GM Rick Dudley accepted Brian Burke's meager offer. Burke didn't know it in the moment, but he could stayed at #3 and #4 to get both Sedins and we'd be talking about Pavel Brendl being one of the worst #1 picks ever instead of Patrik Stefan.

2003: Florida won the lottery and had Nathan Horton atop their list. Panthers GM Rick Dudley figured he could safely trade down a spot or two and still get Horton. Dudley tried to publicly create a bidding war between Carolina/Pittsburgh but in the end he accepted a fairly forgettable return: #1 and #73 for #3, #55, and Mikael Samuelsson.

2004: Columbus traded #4 to Carolina for #8 and #59. That year there was a known massive talent drop after Ovechkin/Malkin and then comically a perceived tier drop after Cam Barker. So the #4 pick didn't have as much "value" as other years.

2006: Boston offered #5 and #37 to Washington for #4. Washington considered it depending on who Boston was taking. When Boston indicated they would take Nick Backstrom, Washington declined the offer.

2007: St. Louis offered #9 and #24 to Edmonton for #6 but were declined (St. Louis wanted Jakub Voracek). There was a perceived tier drop after 6/7.

2017: The draft broadcast mentioned that Vegas wanted to make a splash at its first ever draft and move up to #1 for Nolan Patrick. Apparently the Devils were willing to drop back to #3 because in that scenario at least one of Nico Hischier or Cale Makar would still be there. Vegas unsuccessfully tried to convince Dallas to move down from #3 to #6. I don't recall seeing what Vegas was offering. Dallas allegedly turned down #7 + #21 from the Rangers for #3.

 

[ManofSteel55]

I don't know if it's likely that 1 and 2 flip. Both teams are much more likely to just roll the dice and take the pick. If the Islanders want the forward, they'll just take him, because if San Jose wants the defenseman, they're also likely speculating that the Islanders want the forward and are hoping to have the defenseman fall to them at 2.

I think if the Islanders trade their pick, its more likely it is with Utah or Chicago, because moving up 2 or 3 spots just makes more of a difference. But truly, I expect it to be like every other year - tons of hype about possible trades, and then little to nothing of interest.

 

[ManofSteel55]

If Grier has a very big gap between Schaefer and Misa then I don't think offering a low value asset like a 2nd rounder is a good idea. The Islanders are unlikely to take it regardless of who they rank first or even if there is a tie on their list. Teams put a value on making the first selection, and there is a bit of a friction on trades (a transaction cost) where you are judged more harshly for trades you made than for trades you didn't make.

Grier should make a big offer. I don't think the Stars 1st is high enough either, it should be something closer to a mid first, maybe even around #10. It's a lot, but if you think Schaefer is going to be that elite and that much better then it would be well worth it.

Grier shouldn't make a big offer. It wouldn't be worth it. He's still firmly in rebuild mode, and its not like offering the Islanders will be banging the door down for the veterans that the Sharks have. Not for a first overall pick anyway, I'm sure they wouldn't mind Mario Ferraro or Tyler Toffoli to help their playoff aspirations for next year, but those aren't 1st overall trade bait. Grier should just be patient, hope Schaefer falls to him, and if the Islanders take Schaeffer, then take the top forward on your sheet, and prepare for the Gavin McKenna sweepstakes, because that's what's going to change his team's fortunes around - a core of Will Smith, Macklin Celebrini, and potentially Michael Misa and Gavin McKenna. Heck, if I'm Grier, I might even have my sights on Porter Martone instead of Misa, but it still hits the same with 4 very good forwards to build around.

 

[PhysicalGraffiti]

Do either of them have pictures of them wearing Leafs pajamas as kids?

If so, stay far away.

 

[Grinner]

I don't know if it's likely that 1 and 2 flip. Both teams are much more likely to just roll the dice and take the pick. If the Islanders want the forward, they'll just take him, because if San Jose wants the defenseman, they're also likely speculating that the Islanders want the forward and are hoping to have the defenseman fall to them at 2.

I think if the Islanders trade their pick, its more likely it is with Utah or Chicago, because moving up 2 or 3 spots just makes more of a difference. But truly, I expect it to be like every other year - tons of hype about possible trades, and then little to nothing of interest.

It seems likely that both Utah and Chicago will want Misa. Leaving San Jose with Schaefer

 

[dmcccdmn]

If Grier has a very big gap between Schaefer and Misa then I don't think offering a low value asset like a 2nd rounder is a good idea. The Islanders are unlikely to take it regardless of who they rank first or even if there is a tie on their list. Teams put a value on making the first selection, and there is a bit of a friction on trades (a transaction cost) where you are judged more harshly for trades you made than for trades you didn't make.

Grier should make a big offer. I don't think the Stars 1st is high enough either, it should be something closer to a mid first, maybe even around #10. It's a lot, but if you think Schaefer is going to be that elite and that much better then it would be well worth it.

He's not. Schaefer isn't THAT much better than Misa. Not a mid first, and definitely not #10. Islanders would get a bigger haul trading down to 3OA or 4OA because the gap between Schaefer and Hagens/Martone is bigger than the gap between Schaefer and Misa. But then you're left with Hagens or Martone.

 

[ManofSteel55]

He's not. Schaefer isn't THAT much better than Misa. Not a mid first, and definitely not #10. Islanders would get a bigger haul trading down to 3OA or 4OA because the gap between Schaefer and Hagens/Martone is bigger than the gap between Schaefer and Misa. But then you're left with Hagens or Martone.

I don't know if it would be that bad to be left with Hagens or Martone. This feels a bit like the 2006 draft to me, with generational talent, but a top end that should all be really effective NHL players, just in different roles.

 

[ponder]

I personally think Schaefer and Misa are very similar level players, and it wouldn't be shocking to see either of them go 1OA. The opinion among analysts seems to be fairly consistent about Schaefer 1OA, but I also think Misa is right there, it's far from a lock. I think it's totally possible the Isles prefer Misa, and simply pick him, no trading down.

Also, FWIW, I think the next tier, which I have as Martone and Hagens, is pretty close to the top 2. And even the tier after that, which I have as Frondell, Desnoyers and maybe McQueen (depending on team doctor's opinions) isn't far off either.

Overall I see this draft as similar to 2017, where there isn't a clear #1, but there is a good amount of quality near the top. 2017 looked like:

1. Nico Hischier
2. Nolan Patrick
3. Miro Heiskanen
4. Cale Makar
5. Elias Pettersson
6. Cody Glass
7. Lias Andersson
8. Casey Mittelstadt
9. Michael Rasmussen
10. Owen Tippett
11. Gabriel Vilardi
12. Martin Necas
13. Nick Suzuki

(top 6 forwards/top 4 dmen bolded)

And I see this draft shaking out kind of similarly - a bunch of talent throughout the first ~1/3 of the first round, mostly hits, but not the "top 1-2 guys a clear tier above the rest" situation that you see in plenty of drafts.