What is considered a weak team come PO time?

[PistolPete]

this year's Kings would have beaten every other team in the West

Even the no tax state team VGK?



Sorry, couldn't resist.

 

[JaegerDice]

What makes Ottawa, Montreal and Minnesota weak in your view?

There are a lot of numbers you can look to that show these teams in a weak light, but the most basic one that even most anti-analytics people tend to begrudgingly accept is goal differential.

All three teams were outscored at 5v5 this season.

Now, funny enough, so was Edmonton (albeit, by much less), but there were a bunch of other 5v5 stats demonstrating that they actually held control of play, and were pretty much screwed by goaltending and shooting percentage.

 

[avocadosmoothie]

Even the no tax state team VGK?



Sorry, couldn't resist.

yes, no tax is not a free win.

i already educated you on this, remember?

 

[PistolPete]

There are a lot of numbers you can look to that show these teams in a weak light, but the most basic one that even most anti-analytics people tend to begrudgingly accept is goal differential.

All three teams were outscored at 5v5 this season.

Makes me wonder if they leaped ahead of any teams who were a positive GD 5v5.

Know the correlation coefficient of the stat?

 

[JaegerDice]

Makes me wonder if they leaped ahead of any teams who were a positive GD 5v5.

Know the correlation coefficient of the stat?

Haha, as a predictive stat for future goal differential and/or wins? Not off the top of my head. Higher than current goal differential (as in goal differential across, 5v5, 4v4, 4v5, 5v4, 5v3, 3v5, 6v5, 5v6 and everything else), not as high as Corsi or xGF.

As a descriptive stat? Damn near 1.0. After all, the team that wins is the team that scores more goals. Given 80% or so of any game is played 5v5, it's relatively rare for the team that scores more 5v5 to lose.

EDIT: I was curious, so I had to look it up.

Current 5v5 GF% has a 0.18 R-square to future 5v5 GF%,. Corsi has betwen 0.27-0.33 depending on adjustment for score state and venue, xGF has roughly 0.48-50.

 

[AvroArrow]

What makes Ottawa, Montreal and Minnesota weak in your view?

Ottawa/Montreal - Young core with not a whole lot of playoff experience, don't have that offensive game breaker yet. The teams are just very raw, lots of room for growth, but making the playoffs alone was a huge success for them and a big step forward for both club

Minnesota - Kaprizov was injured, Boldy/Rossi still pretty young an inexperienced in the playoffs, almost no depth offensively

Weak in comparison to the other playoff teams, not weak in comparison to the entire league. Those 4 teams I mentioned are clearly in the bottom 16 of the playoff teams this year.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

I don’t think LA is weak. They just don’t match up well with EDM. The blueline and checking Fs are too slow, and they don’t have enough scoring.

IMO LA was a top 5 team in the playoffs this year. They just ran into a top 2 team that has their number

 

[Raistlin]

So weak = chokers?

the core is one factor. when I label a team as weak.... it factors in variables like propensity to injuries, flexibility with coaching staff to adept to a 7 game series, toughness or lack thereof, and quality of black aces. regular season vs playoffs have so many different variables in hockey. "WEAK" is only factoring the team inherent qualities itself, you guys are bring in matchups and I dunno humidity, elevation of arenas, travel etc... those are not factors to calling a team "weak" in post season.

So if its empirically proven that LA will beat any other team but the Oilers, then they are not weak.... no such evidence exists for some very unfortunate reasons.

 

[MNRube]

IMO LA was a top 5 team in the playoffs this year. They just ran into a top 2 team that has their number

Not sure about Top 5, but generally agree. Looks like a contender on paper, but some of their horses are ill equipped for the fast pace Edmonton plays. Think they would’ve been much more successful against Vegas or Winnipeg or another heavy team.

 

[PistolPete]

Haha, as a predictive stat for future goal differential and/or wins? Not off the top of my head. Higher than current goal differential (as in goal differential across, 5v5, 4v4, 4v5, 5v4, 5v3, 3v5, 6v5, 5v6 and everything else), not as high as Corsi or xGF.

As a descriptive stat? Damn near 1.0. After all, the team that wins is the team that scores more goals. Given 80% or so of any game is played 5v5, it's relatively rare for the team that scores more 5v5 to lose.

This is why I think they should award a point to the team who has more 5 v5/SH goals in a tie and just forget OT unless that's equal as well. Reward the better 5 v 5 teans

I haven't checked recent seasons but I know in the past there was a pattern of the trams with the most PPO tended to be the worse teams and vice versa for the teams with the most points.

So once you get to the middle, how many teams are winning games by virtue of the PP? (Just a throw out there question, not expecting you to answer it- unless you'd like to take a stab at it lol)

 

[JaegerDice]

This is why I think they should award a point to the team who has more 5 v5/SH goals in a tie and just forget OT unless that's equal as well. Reward the better 5 v 5 teans

I haven't checked recent seasons but I know in the past there was a pattern of the trams with the most PPO tended to be the worse teams and vice versa for the teams with the most points.

So once you get to the middle, how many teams are winning games by virtue of the PP? (Just a throw out there question, not expecting you to answer it- unless you'd like to take a stab at it lol)

Sorry, can you clarify what you mean here? I don't quite follow?

 

[bossram]

So would it be best to use those as determinants for seeding?

No. I didn't say they should.

 

[SheldonJPlankton]

 

[Leaf Fans]

 

[majormajor]

LA has been the toughest opponent for the Oilers so far.

Toronto has been the toughest opponent for the Panthers so far.

 

[PistolPete]

Sorry, can you clarify what you mean here? I don't quite follow?

Essentially the refs would award more PP to weak teams. Rationale being I assume that awarding strong teams the most PP regardless of whether or not they should be called for them would just being helping them even more to win.

Goes with the NHL's approach of doing what it can to equalize things as much as possible.

But like I said, I haven't checked recent seasons to know if it's still the case. It was just something I noticed when I was looking at 70s and 80s stats

 

[PistolPete]

LA has been the toughest opponent for the Oilers so far.

Toronto has been the toughest opponent for the Panthers so far.

Perhaps TB was the toughest and the 3 losses weren't a matter of Toronto dominating or overpowering but Florida just not bringing the energy and executing their own game plan.

Although I suppose one could say but virtue of being able to beat them on an off night Toronto was tougher- unless TB made each Florida win a nitty gritty l, leave it all out on the ice kind if win (that is, the opposite of Florida's game 5 and 7 wins v Toronto)

 

[PistolPete]

No. I didn't say they should.

Wasn't being rhetorical. Was a bit tongue in cheek but it goes more towards the imperfections of the seeding system based on points.

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

The Kings were not a weak team, and anybody that argues so is foolish.

The Kings simply encountered a BETTER team. The same BETTER team many years in a row.

As far as what determines a 'weak' playoff team, it's generally a team that does not control play at 5v5, does not outscore their opposition at 5v5, and over-relies on goaltending, hot shooting percentage, or their powerplay.

Teams that put up red flags this season were Washington, Winnipeg, Toronto.

Teams that made the playoffs, but everybody kind knew they were cooked include Montreal, Ottawa and Minnestoa.

I'd argue the teams in those two groups could be considered 'weak'.

Which team out of the three red flags has the least amount, in your opinion? Likewise, which team in the cooked category do you consider the strongest?

 

[Dust]

Teams who makes the playoffs with a negative goal differential are weak teams.

Montreal
Minnesota (though they missed Kaprizov for half their season), and they were a very tough out for Vegas.

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

The Kings were not a weak team, and anybody that argues so is foolish.

The Kings simply encountered a BETTER team. The same BETTER team many years in a row.

As far as what determines a 'weak' playoff team, it's generally a team that does not control play at 5v5, does not outscore their opposition at 5v5, and over-relies on goaltending, hot shooting percentage, or their powerplay.

Teams that put up red flags this season were Washington, Winnipeg, Toronto.

Teams that made the playoffs, but everybody kind knew they were cooked include Montreal, Ottawa and Minnestoa.

I'd argue the teams in those two groups could be considered 'weak'.

BTW in the regular season, every team still in the playoffs minus Dallas severely underperformed their xGF% 5on5. Likewise, Buffalo, Chicago, and Seattle severely outscored their deficient 5on5 play, and look where they are. Even the Blues did the same and still lost in the first round. So I'd argue controlling play is more important than getting your expected results.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

Ottawa/Montreal - Young core with not a whole lot of playoff experience, don't have that offensive game breaker yet. The teams are just very raw, lots of room for growth, but making the playoffs alone was a huge success for them and a big step forward for both club

Minnesota - Kaprizov was injured, Boldy/Rossi still pretty young an inexperienced in the playoffs, almost no depth offensively

Weak in comparison to the other playoff teams, not weak in comparison to the entire league. Those 4 teams I mentioned are clearly in the bottom 16 of the playoff teams this year.

They were top 3 in the league when Kaprizov was healthy, they still gave a good scare to Vegas, they weren't weak, lol. They're also a skate blade away from going up 3-2 in that series in Game 5. Thanks, Matt Duchene lol

 

[SheldonJPlankton]

In the last 6 playoff seasons the Habs have played in 7 series and have a 4-3 record. In the last 6 playoff seasons the Leafs have played in 8 series and have a 2-6 record.

Lots of Leaf-love and Hab-hate in this discussion.

 

[JaegerDice]

Which team out of the three red flags has the least amount, in your opinion? Likewise, which team in the cooked category do you consider the strongest?

Of the red flags teams, the Jets were the best across the board at 5v5, even taking goaltending (which was best in the league at 5v5) out of the equation. They had the best 5v5 possession (CF%), they had the best 5v5 Expected Goals, and they had the best 5v5 goal differential.

Now, they did have a massive positive gap between 5v5 goal differential and expected goal differential. But I think that accounts for them getting the division win and president's trophy. So if all things are equal roster wise next year (which is a big if, they may lose guys, may make big signings or trades, who knows), they will still be a playoff team they just probably don't lead the league.

Of the cooked teams, it's close between Ottawa and Minnesota. I personally think Minnesota would have out-performed Ottawa slightly had Kaprizov played the whole season given his usual impact, but I can't prove that definitively, obviously. Montreal is well behind both.

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

Of the red flags teams, the Jets were the best across the board at 5v5, even taking goaltending (which was best in the league at 5v5) out of the equation. They had the best 5v5 possession (CF%), they had the best 5v5 Expected Goals, and they had the best 5v5 goal differential.

Now, they did have a massive positive gap between 5v5 goal differential and expected goal differential. But I think that accounts for them getting the division win and president's trophy. So if all things are equal roster wise next year (which is a big if, they may lose guys, may make big signings or trades, who knows), they will still be a playoff team they just probably don't lead the league.

Of the cooked teams, it's close between Ottawa and Minnesota. I personally think Minnesota would have out-performed Ottawa slightly had Kaprizov played the whole season given his usual impact, but I can't prove that definitively, obviously. Montreal is well behind both.

I definitely think the Sens have the highest floor out of the Buffalo, Detroit, Montreal, and Ottawa quartet. But Montreal has by far the highest ceiling.