Value of: What do you think the 16th and 17th pick of the 1st round worth if traded together?

[samsagat]

The Habs have actually the 16th and 17th pick of the 25 draft.

If they want to trade them together in order to go up the draft, what would it worth?

The draft pick value charts on the internet are saying around the 4th, but it seems a bit too high for me..

A 7th? 8th?

Thoughts?

And which team could be interested?

Not much I think, but would it be possible for a team not having much picks in this draft, maybe?

 

[Chan790]

The main data point of comparison we have is the widely-reported Bruins' failed attempt to trade up in 2015 for Noah Hanifin where all of Arizona, TML, and Carolina turned down #13,14,15 for a top-5 pick.

I doubt #16 & 17 get you much higher than into the top-10.

 

[samsagat]

The main data point of comparison we have is the widely-reported Bruins' failed attempt to trade up in 2015 for Noah Hanifin where all of Arizona, TML, and Carolina turned down #13,14,15 for a top-5 pick.

I doubt #16 & 17 get you much higher than into the top-10.

Well, I'd do those 3 picks with the opportunity to draft Barzal, Connor and Chabot instead of Hanifin any day of the year...

But yeah, like I said the 4th is too high but 7-8-9th would be more appropriate.

 

[DaveG]

complex answer is it all depends on the draft. I haven't looked much at this years class but if there's a perceived dropoff in a big way starting at around, say, 10OA than it wouldn't return a top 10 pick. If it's a deep draft then that would probably get you pretty high up, and 8-10 range would be a safe get IMO.

4th is definitely too high though IMO, usually those pick value analyses are based on the NFL which is a completely different valuation for pick value due to the role specificity. For example in 2015 Boston had 13-15 and tried to trade up to #3 with Arizona (presumably to take Hanifin) which was rejected by the Yotes.

 

[Djp]

The Habs have actually the 16th and 17th pick of the 25 draft.

If they want to trade them together in order to go up the draft, what would it worth?

The draft pick value charts on the internet are saying around the 4th, but it seems a bit too high for me..

A 7th? 8th?

Thoughts?

And which team could be interested?

Not much I think, but would it be possible for a team not having much picks in this draft, maybe?

Value charts done operate thr same as football

I am not a draft depth expert in how the players in the 15-÷20 group compare with those 6-9 in this years draft

If there is as huge difference nobody would move down. If you had s group of around 8-23 that had similar grades and tje team at 7 or 8 like say Pittsburgh needed more prosprct depth thrn thry might trade down

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Could probably get 15OA, if not better.

 

[HockeyVirus]

If I was a GM, I wouldn't drop lower than 7 or 8 spots so I would say it gets you 10th or 11th OA for both

 

[Run the Jewels]

If you value these draft picks based off Corey Pronman's tiers from his March 11 prospect rankings, the 16 and 17 picks are players he rates as tier 4 or 'bubble top and middle of the lineup players'. The top 10 guys are tiers 1 through 3 and all grade out - according to Pronman - as top of the lineup players or better (up to NHL All Star players).

So if you want to use that as a guide, I don't think that combo of picks would get you into the top 10. Perhaps you could package those picks to get a guy at 11-13 you really like. That type of trade seems most likely to happen on draft day.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

I would guess a pick between 8-10th overall and a 3rd rounder, something like that.

or

Maybe someone like Byram, Peterka, Quinn, possibly with a pick coming back along with them. Mayyybe it could get something started for Dobson

 

[Frank Drebin]

10th vs 16&17

2012 - Kookoek vs Wilson/Hertl
2013 - Nikushkin vs Zadorov/Lazar
2014 - Ritchie vs Milano/Sanheim
2015 - Rantanen vs Barzal&Connor
16 - Jost vs Chychrun&Fabbro
17 - Tippett vs Valamaki and Lilegren
18 - Bouchard vs Kaut and Ty Smith
19 - Podzolkin vs Newhook, Krebs
20 - Perfetti vs Guhle/Reichel

Unless you can get a top 5-7 pick, keep the 2 picks folks.

 

[Rebels57]

10th vs 16&17

2012 - Kookoek vs Wilson/Hertl
2013 - Nikushkin vs Zadorov/Lazar
2014 - Ritchie vs Milano/Sanheim
2015 - Rantanen vs Barzal&Connor
16 - Jost vs Chychrun&Fabbro
17 - Tippett vs Valamaki and Lilegren
18 - Bouchard vs Kaut and Ty Smith
19 - Podzolkin vs Newhook, Krebs
20 - Perfetti vs Guhle/Reichel

Unless you can get a top 5-7 pick, keep the 2 picks folks.

This. Every year people seem to think there is some significant difference between 10th overall and 20th overall, when there's really not. Would much rather have picks 16 and 17 then just pick 10.

 

[tomd]

IMO the picks in the top 12-13 of this draft have a clearly higher value so I don't see many teams wanting to trade down for two inferior picks...unless a specific player a team really wants has already been taken.

 

[tomd]

10th vs 16&17

2012 - Kookoek vs Wilson/Hertl
2013 - Nikushkin vs Zadorov/Lazar
2014 - Ritchie vs Milano/Sanheim
2015 - Rantanen vs Barzal&Connor
16 - Jost vs Chychrun&Fabbro
17 - Tippett vs Valamaki and Lilegren
18 - Bouchard vs Kaut and Ty Smith
19 - Podzolkin vs Newhook, Krebs
20 - Perfetti vs Guhle/Reichel

Unless you can get a top 5-7 pick, keep the 2 picks folks.

That can be a reflection of bad drafting for those 10OA picks as much as anything else.

 

[Silky mitts]

On a macro level, the point where the value of NHL draft picks flatten out is 18-19, so I would want a top 5-7 pick, which I wouldn't be likely to get

 

[Chan790]

Well, I'd do those 3 picks with the opportunity to draft Barzal, Connor and Chabot instead of Hanifin any day of the year...

But yeah, like I said the 4th is too high but 7-8-9th would be more appropriate.

I would too. Part of the takeaway is that surely that people probably overvalue larger mystery boxes to a good extent...but that is something we need to factor into such questions.

 

[Poppy Whoa Sonnet]

This is what puckpedia says is equal value:

True answer depends on how high teams are on who's available + how shallow their prospect pool is. If Montreal is the agressor on the deal too, they need to overpay to convince the other team to agree. It's just not going to happen. One of the picks plus a 2nd to move up a few spots I could see though.

 

[Bond]

I would too. Part of the takeaway is that surely that people probably overvalue larger mystery boxes to a good extent...but that is something we need to factor into such questions.

I think the other issue is that a GM is only going to want to trade down from a top 5 pick is if the top end is weak and at that point the other team may as well keep their picks.

 

[wintersej]

Well, I'd do those 3 picks with the opportunity to draft Barzal, Connor and Chabot instead of Hanifin any day of the year...

But yeah, like I said the 4th is too high but 7-8-9th would be more appropriate.

It's obviously draft to draft. As you are aware, which is why you want to make this trade, there is a drop-off in talent just before MTL picks. I can't see any of those teams dropping down.

 

[TGWL]

The problem with trading both is that you put yourself in an area where you may get somebody good, or you may get a work in progress. I think keeping both picks would be better, or just trading them and getting something of a guarantee.

 

[Frank Drebin]

It's obviously draft to draft. As you are aware, which is why you want to make this trade, there is a drop-off in talent just before MTL picks. I can't see any of those teams dropping down.

As i illustrated in my post above, it rarely works out to pick 10 vs 16&17. Even in a draft when mikko rantanen goes 10th overall

 

[Fogelhund]

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This offers a value. Their value suggests you can trade up to 4. I doubt that's actually true though... I think maybe you could get to 8-9, if a team liked several players a little further down.

 

[TheBeard]

I think you May be able to get top 10 simply because after 4 it's pretty much a crapshoot for the next 10-15 picks.

I think teams however may be looking to move down and getting an already established prospect like Reinbacher along with one of those two picks.

 

[Frank Drebin]

That can be a reflection of bad drafting for those 10OA picks as much as anything else.

You could also say that the 2 or 3 drafts where it was an advantage to draft higher with a single pick were skewed by bad drafting later in the first round that year.

Pretty good chance at coming out of those 2 spots with at least one top 4 or top 6 player.

 

[tomd]

You could also say that the 2 or 3 drafts where it was an advantage to draft higher with a single pick were skewed by bad drafting later in the first round that year.

Pretty good chance at coming out of those 2 spots with at least one top 4 or top 6 player.

Let’s put i this way...my team is going to be drafting in the 7-10 range and there is NO way in this draft that I move that pick for both 16 and 17. Other drafts perhaps but not this one. The talent drop off is too great.

 

[Djp]

Examining the value of NHL Draft picks - Sound Of Hockey

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This offers a value. Their value suggests you can trade up to 4. I doubt that's actually true though... I think maybe you could get to 8-9, if a team liked several players a little further down.

Its not.

4th OA CD late teen picks are night and day in terms of potential.

Picks around 16'22 tend to be csrerr nhlerd bit they usually are not superstars. A pick 3-5 has sd far better chance