Player Discussion What do we have in J.T. Miller?

[MikeK]

I think he's going to have a career year this season. Anything other than a top 10 pick and this will be one of Benning's rare good NHL trades.

 

[Phrazer]

Miller has been the straw that stirs the drink of the Canucks offense so far this year.

Well done Jim.

 

[The Vasili Jerry]

I would say that Miller has been the best forward on this team so far and it's really not even close to second. I love everything he brings so far.

 

[vanuck]

This is definitely a great start for him, though still a blip in the grand scheme of things - so I expect he'll end up right around his average of 50-ish points by the end of the season. I still don't agree with trading a 1st rounder for him, though he's a useful player in and of himself.

I obviously don't expect Miller to score at his current pace, but I think he showed Canucks fans just what a good player he is/can be. He had a down year last season, but he's been a 22-23 goal 55+ point player 2 out of the 3 seasons.

If you average his totals over the last 3 years (regular season + playoffs) he's scored at a 52 points/82 game pace. In his "down year" last year he would've been on pace for... 51 points.

 

[Tables of Stats]

If you average his totals over the last 3 years (regular season + playoffs) he's scored at a 52 points/82 game pace. In his "down year" last year he would've been on pace for... 51 points.

I've done the same thing but in his case, I'm not sure that holds unless one also accounts for his season to season ice-time and usage. For most players, that's fairly static but for Miller, not so much.

Do the same calculation but factor in P/60 and his ice time with the Canucks so far and you'll get a better read.

 

[ekimbo]

I've done the same thing but in his case, I'm not sure that holds unless one also accounts for his season to season ice-time and usage. For most players, that's fairly static but for Miller, not so much.

Do the same calculation but factor in P/60 and his ice time with the Canucks so far and you'll get a better read.

i agree, he has averaged 2.5pts/60 the last 3 years. If we assume he will continue at 18 minutes per game he is a 60 point player

he could easily be higher than 2.5/60 with more PP time in Vancouver.

 

[Mr. Canucklehead]

Definitely a strong start to Miller’s Canuck career. Strong on the puck, goes to the greasy areas, is responsible defensively, but has enough skills to make plays, too.

He’s proven himself to be a 50/50+ point player in the past, but I’m hopeful he can reach the 60 point level with his opportunity and ice time this season.

 

[wonton15]

If he stays on PP1 and the first 2 forward lines, I don't think its possible for him to miss 50 points. Or 60. He might even reach 70+

*tempers expectations*

 

[BWJM]

Only 2 Tampa players above JT Miller in top 50 scoring. Stamkos and Kucherov with 8pts in 6 gp.

JT Miller 7pts in 5 games. I really feel like this trade could go down as one of Benning's best moves.

 

[MS]

Keep in mind the book on Miller from Ranger fans is that this is an incredibly streaky player who would look awesome for a month and then spend the next month as his alter ego The Moron, a disengaged floater prone to brain farts of the most egregious variety.

Like, this was his 16-17 season :

17 points in his first 17 games, +17
5 points in his next 20 games, -11
24 points in his next 19 games, +14
13 points (and just 3 goals) in his next 38 games including playoffs, -4

And we see the same thing in 17-18 with a huge finish with TB after an indifferent season and in 18-19 when he had a great start and then faded.

Hopefully he can find some consistency and we can see this Miller all season, but history tells us that it will probably turn at some point.

 

[VancouverJagger]

I can't believe the discussion that's going on in this thread amidst the start Miller is having with this team, and the positive impact he's having. Can't you guys just enjoy a good thing? Dear lord....

To be fair many people have been beaten into submission the last 4 years by the product that has been put on the ice. Optimism is a concept that many lost hope on with managements continued follies.

Eventually I assume once Miller gets 70 plus points this year and is an obvious success story people will come around........at least they should right?

 

[ddawg1950]

Keep in mind the book on Miller from Ranger fans is that this is an incredibly streaky player who would look awesome for a month and then spend the next month as his alter ego The Moron, a disengaged floater prone to brain farts of the most egregious variety.

Like, this was his 16-17 season :

17 points in his first 17 games, +17
5 points in his next 20 games, -11
24 points in his next 19 games, +14
13 points (and just 3 goals) in his next 38 games including playoffs, -4

And we see the same thing in 17-18 with a huge finish with TB after an indifferent season and in 18-19 when he had a great start and then faded.

Hopefully he can find some consistency and we can see this Miller all season, but history tells us that it will probably turn at some point.

I don't doubt he will regress at some point...most players do unless they are the rare elite.
So, was he worth a first round pick? Depends which type, I guess. The Pettersson one, or the Juolevi...or the Gaunce?

 

[Hoghandler]

The first rumour I heard of interest in Miller was the Isles offering a 1st rd pick at the draft for him, this courtesy of Paul Bisonnette on Spittin' chicklets.

The latest rumour is that the Red Wings were interested in JT Miller this summer, courtesy Satiar Shah.

If true, that's 3 clubs bidding for his services. And that's just from rumours I've heard. Makes you wonder if there were even more teams trying to acquire him, or how many more...

 

[Bgav]

Keep in mind the book on Miller from Ranger fans is that this is an incredibly streaky player who would look awesome for a month and then spend the next month as his alter ego The Moron, a disengaged floater prone to brain farts of the most egregious variety.

Which is crazy, he seems like such a hard-working no non-sense type of guy. Lets hope he stays like this

 

[Melvin]

Keep in mind the book on Miller from Ranger fans is that this is an incredibly streaky player who would look awesome for a month and then spend the next month as his alter ego The Moron, a disengaged floater prone to brain farts of the most egregious variety.

Like, this was his 16-17 season :

17 points in his first 17 games, +17
5 points in his next 20 games, -11
24 points in his next 19 games, +14
13 points (and just 3 goals) in his next 38 games including playoffs, -4

And we see the same thing in 17-18 with a huge finish with TB after an indifferent season and in 18-19 when he had a great start and then faded.

Hopefully he can find some consistency and we can see this Miller all season, but history tells us that it will probably turn at some point.

I think a lot of players are like this and fans focus too much on the shape instead of the overall value. We saw that here with Nick Bonino who was run out of town for not being as good in the second half as he was in the first, but overall he was still good value and it was stupid to trade him.

 

[bandwagonesque]

I think a lot of players are like this and fans focus too much on the shape instead of the overall value. We saw that here with Nick Bonino who was run out of town for not being as good in the second half as he was in the first, but overall he was still good value and it was stupid to trade him.

I'd be interested to see how unevenly distributed production normally is in skaters in general and in skaters with particular roles or mean levels of production.

 

[MS]

Which is crazy, he seems like such a hard-working no non-sense type of guy. Lets hope he stays like this

Yeah, I definitely haven't seen it yet either. He's looked great.

But the book on him there was that he was a Jekyll/Hyde guy who was great when he was engaged and moving his feet but prone to long stretches where he seemed to disengage and make really dumb on-ice decisions. And he's definitely been one of the streakiest players in the league through his career who has traditionally started seasons (and arrivals with new teams) on a tear.

16-17 - 17 points first 17 games
17-18 - 15 points first 16 games
17-18 - 18 points first 19 games after trade to TB
18-19 - 18 points first 22 games
19-20 - 7 points first 5 games

... so he has 75 points in 79 games over the last 4 years to start seasons or start with a new team, or both.

 

[timw33]

I'd be interested to see how unevenly distributed production normally is in skaters in general and in skaters with particular roles or mean levels of production.

Yep I doubt you find a lot of half point per game players just putting up exactly one point every two games.

 

[MS]

I think a lot of players are like this and fans focus too much on the shape instead of the overall value. We saw that here with Nick Bonino who was run out of town for not being as good in the second half as he was in the first, but overall he was still good value and it was stupid to trade him.

Oh, absolutely. I'm not arguing that an inconsistent Miller still doesn't have considerable value, same as Bonino.

I'm just saying that this is traditionally a very streaky player who starts seasons hot, and that there has usually been a flipside to those quick starts.

 

[Hoghandler]

Yeah, I definitely haven't seen it yet either. He's looked great.

But the book on him there was that he was a Jekyll/Hyde guy who was great when he was engaged and moving his feet but prone to long stretches where he seemed to disengage and make really dumb on-ice decisions. And he's definitely been one of the streakiest players in the league through his career who has traditionally started seasons (and arrivals with new teams) on a tear.

16-17 - 17 points first 17 games
17-18 - 15 points first 16 games
17-18 - 18 points first 19 games after trade to TB
18-19 - 18 points first 22 games
19-20 - 7 points first 5 games

... so he has 75 points in 79 games over the last 4 years to start seasons or start with a new team, or both.

First thing that comes to mind is potential fatigue. Miller carries around a lot of weight for a guy his height. With how hard he works, maybe it's partly a conditioning issue? Doesn't appear to be the leanest guy around...

 

[mathonwy]

It would mean giving Benning credit for what right now looks like a very good move.

Ya know what the best stance to take is?

The best stance to take is to neither blame nor give credit to Jim Benning because the reality is, Jim Benning is not a real GM.

And because Jim Benning is not a real GM, holding Benning to the standards of a real GM is an exercise in futility.

The Canucks record over the last 4 years and Jim Benning get extended speaks for itself. No other team in the cap era has self-destructed quite like we have and yet, the media stayed away from us essentially muting anything that was happening in Vancouver... until EP40 come into our lives.

If I were to talk about this era, I wouldn't call it the Jim Benning era, I would could it the pre-EP40 era and the post-EP40 era.

Pre-Ep40 coming out as a generational player, whoever was in charge was just effing around and robbing the Canucks blind. Literally. Some call it incompetence, I call it the Canucks donating their resources to the league becoming bad in the process and doing so until their next hockey star arrives.

Post-Ep40 coming out as a generational player, whoever was in charge somehow get us Leivo for Carconne, somehow traded Gud for Pearson, somehow got Bo under a reasonable contract, somehow got Edler to agree to a 3 year 5.85M AAV contract etc.... It's almost like a switch was flipped. It's actually exactly as if a switch was flipped. We flipped from purposefully being not competitive to being competitive. Last season I called it the EP40 effect. Bye bye Markus Granlund, hello JT Miller. Bye bye Eric Gudbranson hello Tyler Meyers.

Yeah... whatever.

Management are a bunch of liars and not worth my time. The team is entertaining now.

As a hockey fan, I'll take the entertainment. As a Canucks fan, it is what it is.

 

[F A N]

First thing that comes to mind is potential fatigue. Miller carries around a lot of weight for a guy his height. With how hard he works, maybe it's partly a conditioning issue? Doesn't appear to be the leanest guy around...

Some feel that having more weight helps you get through the grind of an 82 game season rather than make the player easier to fatigue, especially since most players having trouble keeping the weight on during the season. I think Miller is the same size as Landeskog. He also had an explosive start to his Lightning career which suggests he isn't one to wear down towards the end of the season.

 

[SurferBroChad]

Ya know what the best stance to take is?

The best stance to take is to neither blame nor give credit to Jim Benning because the reality is, Jim Benning is not a real GM.

And because Jim Benning is not a real GM, holding Benning to the standards of a real GM is an exercise in futility.

The Canucks record over the last 4 years and Jim Benning get extended speaks for itself. No other team in the cap era has self-destructed quite like we have and yet, the media stayed away from us essentially muting anything that was happening in Vancouver... until EP40 come into our lives.

If I were to talk about this era, I wouldn't call it the Jim Benning era, I would could it the pre-EP40 era and the post-EP40 era.

Pre-Ep40 coming out as a generational player, whoever was in charge was just effing around and robbing the Canucks blind. Literally. Some call it incompetence, I call it the Canucks donating their resources to the league becoming bad in the process and doing so until their next hockey star arrives.

Post-Ep40 coming out as a generational player, whoever was in charge somehow get us Leivo for Carconne, somehow traded Gud for Pearson, somehow got Bo under a reasonable contract, somehow got Edler to agree to a 3 year 5.85M AAV contract etc.... It's almost like a switch was flipped. It's actually exactly as if a switch was flipped. We flipped from purposefully being not competitive to being competitive. Last season I called it the EP40 effect. Bye bye Markus Granlund, hello JT Miller. Bye bye Eric Gudbranson hello Tyler Meyers.

Yeah... whatever.

Management are a bunch of liars and not worth my time. The team is entertaining now.

As a hockey fan, I'll take the entertainment. As a Canucks fan, it is what it is.

 

[Canucks1096]

Miller did get 56 P one year playing with mainly Grabner and Hayes. Playing with Petey and Boeser and on the 1st pp unit, he should get 60 plus points.

I am just hoping he doesn't become injury prone. We saw the script many times, Hamhuis, Ballard, Sutter don't missed many games before they came to Vancouver but became injury prone once they started playing in Vancouver.

 

[thekernel]

...
Post-Ep40 coming out as a generational player, whoever was in charge somehow get us Leivo for Carconne, somehow traded Gud for Pearson, somehow got Bo under a reasonable contract, somehow got Edler to agree to a 3 year 5.85M AAV contract etc.... It's almost like a switch was flipped. It's actually exactly as if a switch was flipped. We flipped from purposefully being not competitive to being competitive. Last season I called it the EP40 effect. Bye bye Markus Granlund, hello JT Miller. Bye bye Eric Gudbranson hello Tyler Meyers.

This aligns nicely with my conspiracy theory that Gudbranson, Eriksson, Pouliot, and Granlund were double agents meant to win the Canucks a lottery. Well, maybe Eriksson was an honest attempt to land a Sedin winger. But what's important is, they're literally all out of the lineup right now and have all been replaced with better players; like you said, flipping a switch. It's the only way you can explain how we can be so incredibly bad in 2017-18 and roll into the '18-19 season with mostly the same team.