Toggle sidebar

Prospect Info: Welcome to Montréal, Jesperi Kotkaniemi (1st round pick, 3OA 2018 - signed ELC)

Status
Not open for further replies.
Kriss E

Kriss E

Registered User
May 3, 2007
55,334
20,289
Jeddah
417 said:
Agreed...hence why i'm not sure it's fair to say Galchenyuk was a better prospect his draft year compared to Kotka.

But time will tell...I was very hyped when we drafted Galchenyuk, thought we had solved our #1C issue.

I'm a bit more guarded this time with Kotka, not necessarily because of him...moreso because i'm jaded from the whole Galchenyuk experience.
Click to expand...
I am not basing my opinion of Galch being a better prospect on draft position, just on what I remember from watching him. I was very impressed with his skills. Big body, strong shot, creative, good puck movement, powerful. But am talking 6 years ago...so memory can be faulty.
Anyways, it doesn't matter. Kotka could be 3 steps behind Galch when drafted, what I care about is how he will develop over the years and hopefully Kotka will be the one 3 steps ahead when joining our team.

I am more guarded as well, mostly because he's a 17yo kid who played in europe. I mean, can we give this kid a couple of years before talking about how he's our next top line center?..
 
  • Like
Reactions: HankyZetts and 417

angry pirate

Registered User
Feb 9, 2009
2,144
266
Kriss E said:
On a side note, the NHL should move the draft age up. I think it's completely stupid to have teams drafting players that are so far away from making the NHL.
Click to expand...

I absolutely agree with this 100%. Most players drafted should be making the NHL in some capacity immediately. If that means pushing the draft to age 20 and dropping the rounds to 5 than so be it. 100+ Players won't play a single NHL game out of this draft. More than 3 rounds worth. I would much rather there be a real choice between drafting BPA and drafting for need. In theory, we'd have been drafting a 20 year old Dubois this year that could step and and be a 1C for us today.

Some short term draft strategy would be so beneficial to NHL clubs. Even for rebuilding clubs, get a couple of 1st round picks and you have a decent roster turnover within a year.
 
Saxon

Saxon

The Sheriff
Mar 9, 2015
3,240
3,957
Kriss E said:
I am not basing my opinion of Galch being a better prospect on draft position, just on what I remember from watching him. I was very impressed with his skills. Big body, strong shot, creative, good puck movement, powerful. But am talking 6 years ago...so memory can be faulty.
Anyways, it doesn't matter. Kotka could be 3 steps behind Galch when drafted, what I care about is how he will develop over the years and hopefully Kotka will be the one 3 steps ahead when joining our team.

I am more guarded as well, mostly because he's a 17yo kid who played in europe. I mean, can we give this kid a couple of years before talking about how he's our next top line center?..
Click to expand...
Wait a few years before calling him or next top line centre?........... Have you seen our centre depth....McShane could walk into or lineup and be the top centre.....:sarcasm:.
 
Saxon

Saxon

The Sheriff
Mar 9, 2015
3,240
3,957
Favster said:
Not sure if this has been posted here yet. Anyways, a bunch of shift by shift videos here:

Jesperi Kotkaniemi – ProspectShifts.com

He looks really solid out there. You can notice a drastic improvement in his athleticism by the last video, which was later in the season. My pick was Hughes but I'm very pleased with him too, was my second favourite option at 3.

What I like most about his play is how he rarely gives up possession of the puck. Even when you think he doesn't have a play, he finds something. When he has no play he kills it up against the boards and most of the time, he wins his board battles. He's just a very smart player out there and doesn't seem to make any mistakes.

Don't get me wrong, he remains very creative within this "safe" mindset, he seems to have next level hockey IQ. If the opponent makes a slight mistake and gives him space, he's absolutely lethal - he has soft hands, great puck protection and most his most underrated skill, an extremely hard and accurate shot.

I have no idea why people say his skating is below average. For a 6'2 17 year old, he moves extremely well out there. Yes, his edgework needs to be improved but it's nothing alarming to me. He's one of those players that the puck just seems to follow him.

Overall, I'm very encouraged with what I saw in those videos.
Click to expand...
I can see him flourishing under Julien for sure. I looked quickly at the top prospects as per Bob's list, since it's from actual NHL scouts, and Kotkaniemi was the only forward I saw with a 5/5 for IQ. The only other 5/5s I saw were for Dahlin and Boqvist. As for his skating, he was a clunky looking skater then he had surgery. This stuck as a narrative all year, even though those that watched him saw steady and drastic improvement all year..... And there is no reason to believe the progression has stopped. Imo if his skating was an issue it would have been exposed by Hughes/Whalstrom at the u18. Hughes is a Mathews level talent and should go first overall next year. If skating was an issue Hughes would have made it very apparent........
 
  • Like
Reactions: Grate n Colorful Oz
Kriss E

Kriss E

Registered User
May 3, 2007
55,334
20,289
Jeddah
angry pirate said:
I absolutely agree with this 100%. Most players drafted should be making the NHL in some capacity immediately. If that means pushing the draft to age 20 and dropping the rounds to 5 than so be it. 100+ Players won't play a single NHL game out of this draft. More than 3 rounds worth. I would much rather there be a real choice between drafting BPA and drafting for need. In theory, we'd have been drafting a 20 year old Dubois this year that could step and and be a 1C for us today.

Some short term draft strategy would be so beneficial to NHL clubs. Even for rebuilding clubs, get a couple of 1st round picks and you have a decent roster turnover within a year.
Click to expand...

I have no idea why they draft so late honestly, it's so dumb. Everyone would gain from pushing the draft age back.
 
  • Like
Reactions: NoQuinn

StanleyCH25

Registered User
Feb 14, 2003
970
27
Visit site
NotProkofievian said:
This is where it starts to get interesting. Because Jesperi was so good at even strength, he only has two real comparables on the record: Roope Hintz and Sebastian Aho. Actually, he was more prolific at even strength this year than all the other comparables were in their second year. Both of his comparables ended up somewhere between 2.4 and 2.6 EVP/60. So, while we lose samples, and eliminate the biggest jumps, we end up almost confirming our original estimate.

I like it. Roope is a big talented kid who just never really took the next step, and Sebastian Aho had a rocket up his ass, but the estimate between those two ends up giving us much the same result. I think the 26-34 EVP holds up pretty well.
Click to expand...

That sure makes him seem like a very promising prospect. How did Laine fare in the same league? Any other top end prospects that can give us insight on how Kotkaniemi compares?

NotProkofievian said:
I think he'll end up around there, plus or minus a shift per game on average. At that point, what ends up happening to the overall estimate is very small. Maybe a point over a whole season.
Click to expand...

So the point projection seems pretty consistent and I definitely agree with the 26-34 range being a very solid possibility for his 2nd year (even strength points). The more I look at some of the stats you’ve added, the more I like this pick. I just wish we had more comparables to help project his floor and ceiling in the NHL.
 
Kriss E

Kriss E

Registered User
May 3, 2007
55,334
20,289
Jeddah
ginomini said:
The problem with tyhat is you create 2 gap years where the top picks would be some CHL overager
Click to expand...

Not necessarily. Teams still already have upcoming talent ready to graduate over the next few years.
So I don't think it would be that bad. Then in 2 years time, you have more NHL ready guys, you have a better idea of which guys are likely to make the league, and drafting for needs now starts to make a lot more sense.
The NHL has no problem shutting down the entire season for a CBA negotiation, so I think it should be totally fine to skip drafting 2 years to push the age back a bit.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Runner77

NotProkofievian

Registered User
Nov 29, 2011
24,928
25,542
StanleyCH25 said:
That sure makes him seem like a very promising prospect. How did Laine fare in the same league? Any other top end prospects that can give us insight on how Kotkaniemi compares?
Click to expand...

Laine was incredible on the powerplay and really started coming into his own towards the end of the season. Jesperi was more prolific at even strength on average though. His rate was higher than Puljujärvi's as well, and he got some time with D+1 Aho (at least when I was watching that's who Jesse was with, though he did have his ice time fiddled with, IIRC). I should stress that Kristian Vesalainen was excellent this year, and he still was not as prolific as Jesperi at even strength (either in rate or absolute production).

It bears repeating, however, that Jesperi was particularly bad on the PP.

StanleyCH25 said:
So the point projection seems pretty consistent and I definitely agree with the 26-34 range being a very solid possibility for his 2nd year (even strength points). The more I look at some of the stats you’ve added, the more I like this pick. I just wish we had more comparables to help project his floor and ceiling in the NHL.
Click to expand...

Me too. There's two factors that are really affecting our ability to do the projection. The first is that Liiga only started tracking time on ice in 2014-15, so we miss many comparables: Lehkonen, Kapanen, Barkov, Rantanen, Granlund, Armia. The second is that many finns are choosing to play hockey elsewhere. This is why we lose Rantanen and Puljujärvi's post draft years, and Eeli Tolvanen, and Olli Juolevi, and Aleksi Heponiemi, and Joni Ikonen, and Juuso Välimäki. We're just bleeding data so we have to find ways to make do. I think the D+1 decile idea is interesting enough to put in the work. We would more than double our sample size if these prospects stayed in Finland and played Liiga.

The CHL is more ripe for this sort of work due to prospects being trapped in the league until they're good enough for the NHL.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Ippenator

yianik

Registered User
Jun 30, 2009
11,160
6,734
I think that there are people who are concerned about Kotkaniemi due to the rapid ascent at the end and are worried that we reached such that they are overlooking what the player brings.

This is a real good player who did remarkably well in a men's league. He played on a bad team and on the wing ( he is a rookie in that league ) and put up terrific 5 on 5 points in both goals and primary assists. He has great IQ, sense, hands, a good shot and he implicates himself. Yes, first few steps need work but straight out speed is fine.

Of course he could bust or disappoint. But this is a good pick up.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Ad

Latest posts

Ad

Ad

Top Bottom
X