Prospect Info: Welcome to Montréal, Jesperi Kotkaniemi (1st round pick, 3OA 2018 - signed ELC)

[Kriss E]

Turned out pretty good.....tied for pts in the entire draft, the production is there.

He’s still the second best pick of that draft

Ya, a good top 6 winger. So let's hold out on the top line center comments perhaps is what I was suggesting.

 

[Andrei79]

Definitely for me. Maybe Kotka would have looked way better too if he played in North America junior leagues, alas that didn't happen. So impossible to say. Will be interesting to see him play next year.

I don't understand.

You didn't see either play their draft years. Galchenyuk didn't even play actually.

I've yet to see an actual scout say the Habs didn't pick the right player. Actually, Tim Burke was on the radio recently saying that was a great pick by Timmins and co.

Would have looked way better, how ? ... he's 7th all time in a pro league for his age from which most of his production came at ES. He dominated the U18s against his age group.

 

[Kriss E]

I don't understand.

You didn't see either play their draft years. Galchenyuk didn't even play actually.

I've yet to see an actual scout say the Habs didn't pick the right player. Actually, Tim Burke was on the radio recently saying that was a great pick by Timmins and co.

Would have looked way better, how ? ... he's 7th all time in a pro league for his age from which most of his production came at ES. He dominated the U18s against his age group.

From what I recall of his pre and post draft year, Galch was more explosive and creative with the puck, but that is a long time ago. Maybe my memory is playing tricks on me.

Yes yes, he's 7th all time, which could be a great indication, or could mean Jack shit.
Did I write somewhere we didn't pick the right kid? We will find out years from now, hence me saying I'll wait before doing the victory laps.

As for Tim Burke, apparently he also doesn't believe in analytics much. But even if he did, who cares?

They drafted centers, we need centers, they finally understood they should just focus on drafting a bunch of them.
My posts have been about containing some excitement, the kid isn't a surefire top line center, so let's stop talking like he is.

 

[Favster]

Not sure if this has been posted here yet. Anyways, a bunch of shift by shift videos here:

Jesperi Kotkaniemi – ProspectShifts.com

He looks really solid out there. You can notice a drastic improvement in his athleticism by the last video, which was later in the season. My pick was Hughes but I'm very pleased with him too, was my second favourite option at 3.

What I like most about his play is how he rarely gives up possession of the puck. Even when you think he doesn't have a play, he finds something. When he has no play he kills it up against the boards and most of the time, he wins his board battles. He's just a very smart player out there and doesn't seem to make any mistakes.

Don't get me wrong, he remains very creative within this "safe" mindset, he seems to have next level hockey IQ. If the opponent makes a slight mistake and gives him space, he's absolutely lethal - he has soft hands, great puck protection and most his most underrated skill, an extremely hard and accurate shot.

I have no idea why people say his skating is below average. For a 6'2 17 year old, he moves extremely well out there. Yes, his edgework needs to be improved but it's nothing alarming to me. He's one of those players that the puck just seems to follow him.

Overall, I'm very encouraged with what I saw in those videos.

 

[DramaticGloveSave]

Not sure if this has been posted here yet. Anyways, a bunch of shift by shift videos here:

Jesperi Kotkaniemi – ProspectShifts.com

He looks really solid out there. You can notice a drastic improvement in his athleticism by the last video, which was later in the season. My pick was Hughes but I'm very pleased with him too, was my second favourite option at 3.

What I like most about his play is how he rarely gives up possession of the puck. Even when you think he doesn't have a play, he finds something. When he has no play he kills it up against the boards and most of the time, he wins his board battles. He's just a very smart player out there and doesn't seem to make any mistakes.

Don't get me wrong, he remains very creative within this "safe" mindset, he seems to have next level hockey IQ. On top of that, if the opponent makes a slight mistake and gives him space, he's absolutely lethal. Great hands, puck protection and most importantly, an extremely hard and accurate shot. He's one of those players that the puck just seems to follow him.

I have no idea why people say his skating is below average. For a 6'2 17 year old, he moves extremely well out there. Yes, his edgework needs to be improved but it's nothing alarming to me.

Overall, I'm very encouraged with what I saw in those videos.

He moves well because he's a good athlete. It's not that he's slow, it's just he's not the most fluid skater out there- he loses edges and blows tires quite frequently. It's what also gives him upside if he can get better...

 

[le_sean]

Even Bob McKenzie said guaranteed 2nd line C with potential to be a 1st line C. Button is convinced that he’s another Kopitar.

But no, let’s not get excited.

 

[PriceIsGod]

I'm just happy we finally have a center we can all get behind

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

Absolutely. I liked Galchenyuk quite a bit, but thats because I'm a sucker for pure skill. Incidently, while I get some good calls because of it, I also get burned quite a bit with those picks.

Agreed about JK. The skating is the big issue atm, but the effort, compete and IQ are all there.

Same here

That's why I liked Boo and Hughes so much.

 

[Spearmint Rhino]

• He moves well because he's a good athlete. It's not that he's slow, it's just he's not the most fluid skater out there- he loses edges and blows tires quite frequently. It's what also gives him upside if he can get better...

Well f*** we spent a 3OA pick on another DD

I’m excited, can’t wait to see how he does at camp

 

[Garbageyuk]

I don't understand.

You didn't see either play their draft years. Galchenyuk didn't even play actually.

I've yet to see an actual scout say the Habs didn't pick the right player. Actually, Tim Burke was on the radio recently saying that was a great pick by Timmins and co.

Would have looked way better, how ? ... he's 7th all time in a pro league for his age from which most of his production came at ES. He dominated the U18s against his age group.

Not saying he's wrong, but honestly, what would you expect him to say? He's not gonna go on there and say "yeah, those guys made a terrible pick lol Timmins is an idiot."

 

[Kriss E]

Even Bob McKenzie said guaranteed 2nd line C with potential to be a 1st line C. Button is convinced that he’s another Kopitar.

But no, let’s not get excited.

Bobby Mac would have also chosen Tkachuk at #3.

But I mean, sure, get excited. We have a future 2 cup winner and 4 time all star player under 30.
Can't wait.

Nuance, you should look into it.
I'm excited about the kid. Will be interesting to see him develop over the next years. But I'm not going to overreach right now and start expecting him to become one of the best two way centers in the NHL.

 

[jaffy27]

Not saying he's wrong, but honestly, what would you expect him to say? He's not gonna go on there and say "yeah, those guys made a terrible pick lol Timmins is an idiot."

Of course not, we have HF’s finest for that.....

 

[habtastic]

From what I've seen -- and I've watched every possible set of clips, including since he appeared on the radar, this was a great pick. He seems much more dynamic than Zadina, and fwiw he seems to have a great (oh I hate to say it)... attitude. (In the ways that WE care about, not Purple Pants.)

 

[Garbageyuk]

Of course not, we have HF’s finest for that.....

Well, if you're referring to me as HF's finest...

 

[SakuKoivu11]

I don’t know much about the player but after watching shift by shift I have these to say:

In Nov 2017 his feet looks heavy. In Mar 2018 you can see he’s totally a different skater. If he continues to keep improving he’s a going to be NHL level.

For a young player he’s polished in all three zones. Defensively he does the little thing to chip the puck out when there’s no play.

He’s got an excellent wrist shot Pacioretty like.

I like his two way game. He doesn’t make mistakes out there. Keep in mind he’s playing against men 22-23 years old.

He battles along the boards and doesn’t get outmuscled.

I think he’ll be a very good hockey player for many years.

He’ll need 1 year in Finland and maybe another year in the A’s. he’ll be ready when he’s 19-20.

I also saw that in Nov 2017he was chasing the game. In Mar 2018 he was letting the game come to him and didn’t burn off stamina.

I do see a two way game like Anze Kopitar and Sasha Barkov.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

I've heard repeatedly the exact opposite: that he generates his own chances and scores from everywhere. Funny, your description makes me think of Pacioretty.

Nope. Seen him a lot and the majority of his goals are from both circles.

He can battle along the boards with nifty moves, but gets boggled down by more physical players.

He reminds me of Kovalev. Plays a similar game. Dangles and shifts from top to bottom of the circle to displace opponents and take a shot. Does that along the boards too. Not sure he'll pull that off as easily as Kovy at the pro level though. Time will tell.

 

[Adam Michaels]

On a side note, the NHL should move the draft age up. I think it's completely stupid to have teams drafting players that are so far away from making the NHL.

I think in their last GM meeting, they discussed moving the draft age to 19, not 17.

 

[Kriss E]

I think in their last GM meeting, they discussed moving the draft age to 19, not 17.

I'd have it higher up at 20. Honestly it's a bit ridiculous. Outside maybe a couple players at every draft, none of the teams have a good idea of what they're getting. It's a complete crap shoot.
How do you draft players that are 3-4 years away? I mean seriously, what kind of stupid idea is that..

 

[schnapshot]

I'd have it higher up at 20. Honestly it's a bit ridiculous. Outside maybe a couple players at every draft, none of the teams have a good idea of what they're getting. It's a complete crap shoot.
How do you draft players that are 3-4 years away? I mean seriously, what kind of stupid idea is that..

I mean a lot of teams are still able to project players at 17 and pick them... It’s not so much of a crapshoot.

You think the Panthers picking Borgstrom in 2016 was a crapshoot? Or the Flames picking Gaudreau in 2013? Or the Canes getting Aho at 35? They saw something in them and projected.

It’s no luck that some teams are better at drafting than others, they just project better or pick better skillsets.

 

[NotProkofievian]

Those numbers make it sound like we should be mostly focusing on EV/60 to get proper progression analysis. I would also expect that the data from 5v4 P/60 mostly serves as ensuring that players are hitting a certain range to show their effectiveness on the powerplay. If you take the 5v4 P/60 of the entire league, you could likely determine what range shows effective PP players versus ineffective PP players. Seeing as the variance is so high, I wouldn't use it too much to project growth in a player.

Agreed.

That makes a lot more sense. Most players regress towards the league's EV/60 mean during their first few years in the league so you can likely find some sort of progression parameter from that data.

I'm still unsure how taking the average of the sample points for players at that age gives you a proper EV/60 progression for Kotkaniemi since as you pointed out, some had a horrible year to begin and then simply regressed to the league average the following year which made the jump look drastic. Others started off great and simply had a much smaller improvement the following year since they were closer to the league average to begin with. My guess as to the best approach would likely be to compare other players who had a similar EV/60 to Jesperi's at age 16 and chart their progression. You could then use the average from that data as your parameter for Jesperi's potential growth.

This is where it starts to get interesting. Because Jesperi was so good at even strength, he only has two real comparables on the record: Roope Hintz and Sebastian Aho. Actually, he was more prolific at even strength this year than all the other comparables were in their second year. Both of his comparables ended up somewhere between 2.4 and 2.6 EVP/60. So, while we lose samples, and eliminate the biggest jumps, we end up almost confirming our original estimate.

I like it. Roope is a big talented kid who just never really took the next step, and Sebastian Aho had a rocket up his ass, but the estimate between those two ends up giving us much the same result. I think the 26-34 EVP holds up pretty well.

That helps clear up the average icetime you expect. I'm not sure how solid of an indicator it is but at least it's not an arbitrary number like I thought it was when I first read it.

I think he'll end up around there, plus or minus a shift per game on average. At that point, what ends up happening to the overall estimate is very small. Maybe a point over a whole season.

 

[417]

Definitely for me. Maybe Kotka would have looked way better too if he played in North America junior leagues, alas that didn't happen. So impossible to say. Will be interesting to see him play next year.

It's early to tell...and i'm also using hindsight

But this year's top 3, will likely blow 2012's top 3 out of the water completely.

 

[Kriss E]

It's early to tell...and i'm also using hindsight

But this year's top 3, will likely blow 2012's top 3 out of the water completely.

Wouldn't be difficult to do considering how disappointing the #1 and #2 picks turned out to be.
Also, if put in those 6 players together in the same draft, I still think Dahlin-Schev go 1-2.

 

[417]

Wouldn't be difficult to do considering how disappointing the #1 and #2 picks turned out to be.
Also, if put in those 6 players together in the same draft, I still think Dahlin-Schev go 1-2.

Agreed...hence why i'm not sure it's fair to say Galchenyuk was a better prospect his draft year compared to Kotka.

But time will tell...I was very hyped when we drafted Galchenyuk, thought we had solved our #1C issue.

I'm a bit more guarded this time with Kotka, not necessarily because of him...moreso because i'm jaded from the whole Galchenyuk experience.

 

[Kriss E]

I mean a lot of teams are still able to project players at 17 and pick them... It’s not so much of a crapshoot.

You think the Panthers picking Borgstrom in 2016 was a crapshoot? Or the Flames picking Gaudreau in 2013? Or the Canes getting Aho at 35? They saw something in them and projected.

It’s no luck that some teams are better at drafting than others, they just project better or pick better skillsets.

Of course it's a crapshoot. You think DeBrincat goes 39th if chosen this year? Mete goes 100th?
Ya, some teams end up with great players that were chosen later. Most of this is luck. Sure, they see something they like, but they have their doubts, so those guys move down the ladder.
I mean, you think Johnny Gaudreau gets chosen at 104th if the Flames knew how good he'd become? You think they pick Baertschi, Granlund, Wotherspoon, ahead of him?
No doubt they saw something they liked in Johnny, but they had no freaking idea he was going to be as good as he became, otherwise they would have picked him in the 1st.
Outside sure bets like McDavid, Crosby, Stamkos, it remains a big crapshoot for the majority of the drafts.
Not sure why you think listing the names you did works in your favor, you pretty much proved my point that teams make bad projections. They constantly miss out on solid NHLers.
I mean, Gaudreau at 104? There is no freaking way he would go this far back if they knew he'd become as good.
Same with Aho, they probably use their 5th overall on him instead of Hanifin.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I would take Wahlstrom over Zadina 10 times out of 10, not even a discussion. I would have no issues if they took him at 3.

More like 4 times out of 10 with me.