So we really need to get to the nitty-gritty of what the franchise considers "the fanbase." Not what
we consider it is, but where the team and the league believe it is.
The latest hard numbers for season ticket holders we have are percentages from 2017, to wit:
These are numbers released by the Coyotes (significantly, only percentages, not actual numbers to represent the percentages or the number in total). As we can see, the number that most closely hews to the "the majority of the fanbase is in the East Valley" statement is the Premium 1 Glass Seats percentage - some of the most expensive tickets available, it should be noted, but also only a small fraction of the total available seats in (now-)Desert Diamond Arena. Indeed, when Craig Morgan speaks about the topic, he always talks about the "premium ticket holders."
The other percentages are much closer to a balance, although it is clear that the East Valley percentages remain a majority in all cases. The biggest issue we have is the absence of total numbers - both of overall season ticket holders as well as the actual numbers of, say, Premium 1 Glass Seat tickets sold - to provide context for the percentages. All we have for a contemporary estimate on that is hearsay (there was a mention by Xavier Gutierrez a year or two ago about there being between 4,000 and 5,000 total season ticket members, but that number is not contemporary with the percentages above so we can't rely on it as a valid indicator).
It really is a thin data set, but it's all we have to go on absent the Coyotes releasing any detailed reports publicly, and I think we all know that that isn't going to happen without a court order and months/years of appeals.
Without that hard data, the path forward is paved with supposition, anticipatory prediction, and uncertainty. All we can do is speak in generalities. One of those generalities is that there is a lot of potential corporate and consumer revenue in the East Valley, concentrated most densely in the area where the 101 Loop freeway angles south from Frank Lloyd Wright Blvd./Bell Road - e.g. north Scottsdale, Fountain Hills, Paradise Valley, etc.
At the risk of introducing tortured metaphors (and because, like I said in another thread, I am a big
Deadliest Catch fan), that area of the Valley is akin to a survey of red king crab that shows the clearest evidence of a large population center. Most fishermen who want to make the most money the quickest will set their pots in that vicinity. Other fisherman might set in more far-flung areas, hoping to get lucky and hit on an ancillary population or an unfished group - but those boats usually end up grinding out their quotas on small numbers over a much longer time frame, with a higher fuel and consumables cost to go along with it.
The TL;DR of all of this is that,
based on the available intel we have at our disposal, the ideal location for a new Coyotes arena is smack dab in the center of Talking Stick Resort, at Dobson Rd. and Via de Ventura Blvd. In terms of location, it is the sweetest of sweet spots - even better than the TED site if we're going strictly off of potential revenue sources, proximity to corporate and consumer wealth, and the highest concentration of grassroots hockey community in the Valley. This is (for you Air Force veterans and naval aviators) the Bullseye. The farther you get away from it - west, east, north, or south - the less likely you're going to be successful long-term without additional resource expenditures.
The good news is that, from all we've been able to glean from the franchise's public statements and the very thin journalistic followup surrounding them, there are multiple possible sites in close proximity to the Bullseye for the Coyotes' new build. That should make everyone feel optimistic, if not outright positive, about our future prospects.
If we get new data (real hard numbers rather than guesses or assumptive statements) that clarifies the picture and materially changes this assessment, then I will be happy to revisit this. I'd personally love for someone to show me I'm wrong if that meant we would have actual
information and data transparency as a side effect. Unfortunately, transparency is not a hallmark of the Arizona Coyotes, especially now with Meruelo and Armstrong in charge. It's been "Take our word for it" for years now, and I don't see that changing.