Marchenko was an obvious guy to get on a long term deal, it was already clear last year. Instead Wads got him on a three year deal - which will save us cap when we don't need it, and cost us a fortune when we do need it.
i've thought about this too much (to the point where it may as well be overthinking), but my position is that a bridge
followed by and 8-year deal is better than going with an 8-year deal off the bat.
- Option A: 8-year RFA deal
- Expires with UFA status in 2032
- Cap in 2032 would be much higher
- Player will be in early 30s and looking to cash in on one more big contract
- Option B: 3-year bridge
- Expires with RFA status in 2027
- Cap in 2027 will be higher, but not nearly as high as 2032
- Player will be in mid-30s when next deal expires, not in position to negotiate long-term deal
admittedly, with marchenko being 23 at his first RFA negotiation instead of, say, 21 or 22, means his case isn't quite as strong.
going bridge-then-8 is more cap-efficient in years 1-3, less efficient in years 4-8, then more efficient in years 9-11+ as the player hits UFA in their mid-30s and is either easier to retain (cheaper short-term deals) or easier to let go of.
going with an 8-year deal off the bat is more efficient for a time, but means the player hits UFA at an age (29-31) where teams are still going to offer high-value, long-term deals that do not age well. it introduces risk that they'll either become an anchor contract (more expensive in years 9+++) or that they'll walk for nothing.
not saying don waddell is (or should be) planning 10+ years into the future during his RFA negotiations, but the ideal lifecycle for a player imo is one that doesn't lead to the team being stuck with a high-AAV long-term deal to a declining player in their mid/late 30s. going with a bridge first avoids that scenario and gives them a way to recoup value if things go south in the first non-ELC contract.