Any agent telling kid not to come out when they are going to be 1st rounder is not doing his client a service
If a kid is going round one, he needs to go for it because as shown with Barkley and others an additional year can upend everything and, in some cases, destroy careers
It's to tell kids not to be a 1 and done starter. If you were that talented, you would have started by year 2 in college to get 2 years as a starter. If you are waiting til year 3 to start, either you went to a program that was loaded at QB or you were not good enough to win the job earlier.
It's a risk, but with NIL, there is that to help offset some of the risk. Short game, you take the 8 figures guaranteed money. But, if you are good enough in the nfl on your rookie deal you will get 9 figures guaranteed on the second contract. That's more the long game.
1st round picks, there are major tiers where the guaranteed money drops.
1OA - Caleb $39.5 mill
6OA - Nabers $29.2 mill
10OA - McCarthy $22 mill
16OA - Murphy $16 mill
21OA - Robinson $15 mill
26OA - Barton $14 mill
30OA - Wiggins $12.8 mill
The drop from mid first round to the end is like $4 mill.
Nix at #12 was $18 mill.
If you are top 10, you are set. But, if you are not set to go there, I don't think the risk is that great to return to school so long as your HC and OC are returning.