NFL GDT: Week 17: Merry Christmas, Merry Christmas, Couldn't Miss the NFL This Year

[PeteWorrell]

Ravens 18.5-point favorites

The Browns entered full tank mode the moment they benched Winston. DTR gives you the interceptions without the spectacular plays that might give your team a chance to win.

 

[TheBeard]

Ravens 18.5-point favorites

It's interesting. They need to win to clinch the division, but If Cincy beats Pitts then it's moot. I wonder if they're up like 21 at halftime they'd bench everyone. Cleveland also had no desire to win.

I wouldn't touch that spread in a million years. Too many variables.

ough for the lions that their biggest game of the season vs Vikings will be played on a short week with a flight home from SF.

Honestly, The game tomorrow is meaningless to them so I wouldn't be surprised if they rest players tomorrow.

 

[StreetHawk]

Seattle needs to draft or get another QB in the offseason. Geno Smith served his time but his costly turnovers cost Seattle this season.

Also, some games the Seahawks should’ve won like the Giants game and the Vikings game.

Think 1/3 of the nfl teams say that. But it’s a weak draft and not much out there.

Raiders, Browns, Titans, Jets, Giant most likely to have a different starter come game 1 in 2025.
Saints, Seahawks with their vets in Carr/Geno might not see anything better out there.

Colts, Panthers, unknown what they wish to do with their 2023 1st rounders in Richardson/Young.

 

[StreetHawk]

It's interesting. They need to win to clinch the division, but If Cincy beats Pitts then it's moot. I wonder if they're up like 21 at halftime they'd bench everyone. Cleveland also had no desire to win.

I wouldn't touch that spread in a million years. Too many variables.


Honestly, The game tomorrow is meaningless to them so I wouldn't be surprised if they rest players tomorrow.

Lions already practiced and game planned with their guys. But, each position group only has so many guys on it on the 53 man roster.

OL, teams carry 8/9 guys so 1 or 2 starters need to play.
WR is about 5/6.
TE is 3/4
Rb 4 typically including any FB or use a TE for that.
Can’t just activate guys off the PS onto the 53 man roster without removing guys from it.

 

[bellagiobob]

Nice evenings work.

 

[JTBF81]

Tough for the lions that their biggest game of the season vs Vikings will be played on a short week with a flight home from SF.


Eagles should rest Lane Johnson for sure. No reason to risk Barkley. Can’t advance past 2 seed if Detroit wins vs SF.

The Eagles are already locked in as the 2 seed regardless of the Detroit-SF result I think, no? Detroit beats Philly on tiebreakers if they each finish 14-3, and if Minnesota beats Detroit, they finish 15-2.

 

[TheBeard]

Lions already practiced and game planned with their guys. But, each position group only has so many guys on it on the 53 man roster.

OL, teams carry 8/9 guys so 1 or 2 starters need to play.
WR is about 5/6.
TE is 3/4
Rb 4 typically including any FB or use a TE for that.
Can’t just activate guys off the PS onto the 53 man roster without removing guys from it.

I mean I expect to see Gibbs and Goff for a half but a lot of Reynolds and Hooker second half.

 

[TheBeard]

Think 1/3 of the nfl teams say that. But it’s a weak draft and not much out there.

Raiders, Browns, Titans, Jets, Giant most likely to have a different starter come game 1 in 2025.
Saints, Seahawks with their vets in Carr/Geno might not see anything better out there.

Colts, Panthers, unknown what they wish to do with their 2023 1st rounders in Richardson/Young.

I don’t think there’s enough QB talent for all teams to replace so I expect colts and Carolina to stick with their incumbents. Browns and Titans seem to be the only teams who’ll get the belles in Sanders and Ward but after those two I just don’t see anyone worthy of a top ten pick. I’m more interested in seeing how Minnesota approaches the Darnold situation.

 

[Bounces R Way]

 

[I Hart Conor Garland]

he is such an enigma

 

[Dubi Doo]

I just need Gibbs to get me 10 ish points, and I'll win my league. Fingers crossed!

Nice evenings work.

And gave me a shot at winning my league. I was not expecting 25 pts from him when I woke up this morning. It was a blessing in disguise that Njoku was out injured, and I had to turn to Ertz. My man!

 

[Shockmaster]

It’s a lot less about the answer and way more about the ring.

No wonder divorce rates are so high.

 

[GIADF]

Seattle needs to draft or get another QB in the offseason. Geno Smith served his time but his costly turnovers cost Seattle this season.

Also, some games the Seahawks should’ve won like the Giants game and the Vikings game.

With such a weak QB class I wonder if them trading for JJ McCarthy could be an option so Minnesota can then just turn around and extend Darnold.

 

[John Price]

Tankathon | 2025 NFL Draft Order

2025 NFL Draft order tracker updated after every game. View traded picks in all seven rounds and a live updating Mock Draft after each game.

www.tankathon.com

 

[GKJ]

Giants gonna drop further if the eagles rest everyone

 

[hatterson]

I have never been a fan of these kind of public proposals. It puts an unfair amount of pressure on the other party.

I always wonder how many of them the girl just says yes in the moment not to make it awkward and then the next day they have a serious conversation and press the brakes.

 

[StreetHawk]

I don’t think there’s enough QB talent for all teams to replace so I expect colts and Carolina to stick with their incumbents. Browns and Titans seem to be the only teams who’ll get the belles in Sanders and Ward but after those two I just don’t see anyone worthy of a top ten pick. I’m more interested in seeing how Minnesota approaches the Darnold situation.

IMO it comes down to Darnold's numbers. Think they like to max him out at a similar Baker style deal at 3 years but for maybe $110 - $120 mill vs the $100 mill Baker got, thus with $80 mill guaranteed vs $60 something. Over that, I think Minny has no choice but to let him walk.

As for Darnold, what are this options if he doesn't sign with Minny. Those 5 teams looking for a change at QB. He's been in NY, but with the jets not giants. Can't see him returning to the Jets. Giants, their OL with Neal is a mess. Browns, in cap hell, so they can't afford him.
Raiders, Titans, Can you trust either of them? Titans have spent draft capital on the OL, but weapons have not emerged. Raiders, Lacking WR & RB talent. OL, needs a little help too. LV, OC is unknown, so wait and see.

Saints/Seahawks. Carr is on the books for $30 mill in base plus $10 mill in option/roster bonus which is already guaranteed. Geno, $25 mill due in 2025, as $15 mill base and $10 mill roster bonus. Cap charge increases to $38.5 mill from current $26.4 mill. About a $12 mill increase. Think they currently have to bring him back for that number as I don't know what they can get for better than that. Geno has made $67.5 mill so far in his career. And he is 34. Next contract he signs will likely be his last.

Darnold, is like 6 years younger than Geno and has made similar money at $65.2 mill to date.

If he leaves for the wrong situation, probably not getting another deal in his 30's that he would get this off-season if he goes to say LV and fails there.

And Minny has McCarthy in their back pocket for leverage. They can trust KOC to work his magic with JJ as he did with Cousins and Darnold.

 

[Unholy Diver]

I always wonder how many of them the girl just says yes in the moment not to make it awkward and then the next day they have a serious conversation and press the brakes.

She probably thinks she can do better than a special teamer

 

[StreetHawk]

Giants gonna drop further if the eagles rest everyone

All of the 3 win teams, save for the Browns are playing teams that have nothing to play for, thus will rest their key veterans. So, it's a never know.

NE won't face Allen when they play Buffalo.
TEN, I don't think will face Stroud and some of the Texans starters. Saw Dell go down, along with Diggs this season. So, don't think they want to risk Collins at WR either. Better off working with Stroud in practice than send him out there.
NYG, face Eagles and QB3.

Browns get Ravens who need to win to secure the 3 seed and North title. If they lose and Pitt wins, Pitt would win the North with a better divisional record.

The 4 win teams:
Jax plays Indy. Neither has anything to play for. So, not resting people
Jets play Dolphins. Fins need to win to have any chance
Panthers play Falcons. Falcons need to win to have any chance to win tie-breaker vs TB
Raiders play Chargers. Chargers likely to rest Herbert as they lost both games to Bal and Pitt, so those clubs own the tie breaker. Could pass Pitt if Cincy beats Pitt since Bengals need to win and get help from 2 teams. LA would prefer to play Houston than go on the road vs the North winner. But, they would need help from Cincy.

So, only Jax is playing a team that would have nothing to play for of the 4 win teams.

 

[Fish on The Sand]

Tough for the lions that their biggest game of the season vs Vikings will be played on a short week with a flight home from SF.


Eagles should rest Lane Johnson for sure. No reason to risk Barkley. Can’t advance past 2 seed if Detroit wins vs SF.

The Eagles can't advance past the 2 seed no matter what happens in tonight's game.

The NFC North winner has already clinched the top seed and bye.

 

[TheBeard]

IMO it comes down to Darnold's numbers. Think they like to max him out at a similar Baker style deal at 3 years but for maybe $110 - $120 mill vs the $100 mill Baker got, thus with $80 mill guaranteed vs $60 something. Over that, I think Minny has no choice but to let him walk.

As for Darnold, what are this options if he doesn't sign with Minny. Those 5 teams looking for a change at QB. He's been in NY, but with the jets not giants. Can't see him returning to the Jets. Giants, their OL with Neal is a mess. Browns, in cap hell, so they can't afford him.
Raiders, Titans, Can you trust either of them? Titans have spent draft capital on the OL, but weapons have not emerged. Raiders, Lacking WR & RB talent. OL, needs a little help too. LV, OC is unknown, so wait and see.

Saints/Seahawks. Carr is on the books for $30 mill in base plus $10 mill in option/roster bonus which is already guaranteed. Geno, $25 mill due in 2025, as $15 mill base and $10 mill roster bonus. Cap charge increases to $38.5 mill from current $26.4 mill. About a $12 mill increase. Think they currently have to bring him back for that number as I don't know what they can get for better than that. Geno has made $67.5 mill so far in his career. And he is 34. Next contract he signs will likely be his last.

Darnold, is like 6 years younger than Geno and has made similar money at $65.2 mill to date.

If he leaves for the wrong situation, probably not getting another deal in his 30's that he would get this off-season if he goes to say LV and fails there.

And Minny has McCarthy in their back pocket for leverage. They can trust KOC to work his magic with JJ as he did with Cousins and Darnold.

I think the expectation is always going to be JJ going forward but I’m sure Minny doesn’t want a Brees/Rivers situation.

Darnold has to cash in on this season and taking a three year deal (or 5 with voidable years) is his best bet to do that and still maybe have another multi year deal afterward. I don’t see Cleveland signing him as they’ll probably get their pick of the best in the draft. As far as I’m concerned if Darnold doesn’t go back to Minnesota than he ends up in Vegas or with the Giants. Vegas is probably the favorite in my opinion.

 

[StreetHawk]

I think the expectation is always going to be JJ going forward but I’m sure Minny doesn’t want a Brees/Rivers situation.

Darnold has to cash in on this season and taking a three year deal (or 5 with voidable years) is his best bet to do that and still maybe have another multi year deal afterward. I don’t see Cleveland signing him as they’ll probably get their pick of the best in the draft. As far as I’m concerned if Darnold doesn’t go back to Minnesota than he ends up in Vegas or with the Giants. Vegas is probably the favorite in my opinion.

Any contract (outside of Watson) is at most 3 years avg value in guaranteed money. So, it can be 5 years for $200 mill but only the money up to year 3 would be guaranteed. That's why IMO, the cousins deal with Minny when he left Wash wasn't ground breaking. It was basically close to the same guaranteed money that Carr/Jimmy G got on their 2nd contracts. Just that those 2 got those voidable years for years 4/5/6.

The teams that would pay him the most money will be bad teams. So, really a question of how long a game he's willing to play. In terms of the guaranteed money for 3 years, that would get him likely $$130 mill from a bad team. If he fails there, back to being a bridge guy, but would put him at $200 mill in career earnings. In terms of coaching and team, Minny is the place to be. Not sure the other options are that appealing. Seattle has good weapons, but OL has issues and do you trust Grubb as the OC?

 

[StreetHawk]

The Eagles can't advance past the 2 seed no matter what happens in tonight's game.

The NFC North winner has already clinched the top seed and bye.

Therefore, no reason for Eagles to play Barkley, Lane Johnson, possibly another OL. But, I think at most a team can sit 3 OL starters as they normally only carry 8-9 OL on the 53 man roster.

Rest who you can as even as 2 seed, you are playing either Washington or GR. Currently, slotted as GB if they either both win or lose next week.

 

[sigma six]

Also, some games the Seahawks should’ve won like the Giants game and the Vikings game.

For sure. When you get to the point that you need ten other things to happen in order to make the playoffs, you probably weren't a playoff team in the first place.

Mike Mac got some good things going, take it into next year and improve some more. As for Geno, I'm not sure if there's a better option in the near term.

 

[TheBeard]

Any contract (outside of Watson) is at most 3 years avg value in guaranteed money. So, it can be 5 years for $200 mill but only the money up to year 3 would be guaranteed. That's why IMO, the cousins deal with Minny when he left Wash wasn't ground breaking. It was basically close to the same guaranteed money that Carr/Jimmy G got on their 2nd contracts. Just that those 2 got those voidable years for years 4/5/6.

The teams that would pay him the most money will be bad teams. So, really a question of how long a game he's willing to play. In terms of the guaranteed money for 3 years, that would get him likely $$130 mill from a bad team. If he fails there, back to being a bridge guy, but would put him at $200 mill in career earnings. In terms of coaching and team, Minny is the place to be. Not sure the other options are that appealing. Seattle has good weapons, but OL has issues and do you trust Grubb as the OC?

Again. Is Minny willing to shell out 30-40 a year for a back-up? If that’s not the plan, how long do you keep your 5th overall on the bench? I guess it depends on what Darnold values more - a chance to win or a massive payday. Even with JJ’s rookie deal I’m sure Minnesota would rather take advantage of his rather low hit and allocate funds elsewhere, especially since RB is gonna be a need and Addison isn’t far from needing a new deal.