GDT: WCQF| Game 6| Blues vs. Wild| 8:30 - TNT, BSMW|

[Stupendous Yappi]

People like him moved the line to +140 Blues before the series started, which was an insane betting line given how many edges the Blues owned heading into it, all of which proved significant in the series.

We're in an age where people have accepted advanced stats into their betting lines and yet the advanced stats are still crude and create misinformation. Honestly, if your model had Minnesota winning the series your model is complete dogshit

I don’t begrudge him the model or its biases. That’s hard to do. It’s his snide comments and lack of intellectual curiosity as to what the Blues do to sustain a great season and defeat the model’s expectations. All we get is that the Blues’ performance is unsustainable and will revert to the mean. After an entire season of this.

If the Blues lose to the Stanley Cup favorites, it will be touted as confirmation for the model. That’s ridiculous.

Just this week, he voted the Blues quite a way down his Power Rankings (fine) but the reason he gave is because they’ll lose to Colorado (what?). How that has any significance in a power ranking is inexplicable. It’s just lazy and illogical.

The top two teams could face off in Round 2 (it has happened before). Anyway, at least Sean is there to expose the lazy biases.

 

[Moose and Squirrel]

Loving the sing along. So good to win a Series in front of the Home Crowd!

Congratulations my Blues friends!

Your Boys tonight​

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LOVE Riggle.. dude is hilarious

 

[The Note]

I don’t begrudge him the model or its biases. That’s hard to do. It’s his snide comments and lack of intellectual curiosity as to what the Blues do to sustain a great season and defeat the model’s expectations. All we get is that the Blues’ performance is unsustainable and will revert to the mean. After an entire season of this.

If the Blues lose to the Stanley Cup favorites, it will be touted as confirmation for the model. That’s ridiculous.

Just this week, he voted the Blues quite a way down his Power Rankings (fine) but the reason he gave is because they’ll lose to Colorado (what?). How that has any significance in a power ranking is inexplicable. It’s just lazy and illogical.

The top two teams could face off in Round 2 (it has happened before). Anyway, at least Sean is there to expose the lazy biases.

This is where I’m at, too. I have generally liked Dom’s work and think he has some cool insights. But his season-long writing off of the Blues as some unsustainable outlier with no sort of probing or acknowledgement that perhaps the Blues are succeeding in a way that isn’t effectively captured in his model has been to obnoxious. His attitude also doesn’t help, and I feel drives folks away from trying to better understand advanced stats. Which is a shame in and of itself, because while they shouldn’t be an end all be all, they can be helpful.

 

[Brian39]

Just this week, he voted the Blues quite a way down his Power Rankings (fine) but the reason he gave is because they’ll lose to Colorado (what?). How that has any significance in a power ranking is inexplicable. It’s just lazy and illogical.

The top two teams could face off in Round 2 (it has happened before). Anyway, at least Sean is there to expose the lazy biases.

There is nothing illogical or inexplicable about it.

The Athletic Power Rankings are not ranking teams in order of who they think is the best team. They are a ranking of how good of a chance each team has to win the Cup. Playing the Cup favorite in the next round reduces those chances. I think Dom is too hard on the Blues, but matching up against the perceived Cup favorite is absolutely something that can slide you down the list of 'most likely to win the Cup.'

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

There is nothing illogical or inexplicable about it.

The Athletic Power Rankings are not ranking teams in order of who they think is the best team. They are a ranking of how good of a chance each team has to win the Cup. Playing the Cup favorite in the next round reduces those chances. I think Dom is too hard on the Blues, but matching up against the perceived Cup favorite is absolutely something that can slide you down the list of 'most likely to win the Cup.'

What you describe is not a "power ranking". Its a playoff odds ranking. He already has that too, in a separate column, driven by his model.

 

[Brian39]

What you describe is not a "power ranking". Its a playoff odds ranking. He already has that too, in a separate column, driven by his model.

You can disagree about whether it should be called a power ranking all you want...but that is what their power ranking is.

We ranked the surviving playoff teams from 1-4, based on how good we believe their Cup chances to be.

That is how they define their power ranking. They've talked about it on their various podcasts and many of the early season or pre-playoff articles have mentioned it. Their power rankings are "who we think will win the Cup, in order."

Edit: The Power rankings are different than the articles based on the model. The one you are describing is just a summary of the numbers based on running the model. The Power Rankings have him actually rank teams. He is highly influenced by his model, but his votes are usually a touch different than the pure output of his model. In the previous power ranking he had us at 8th despite his model putting us in the teens.