Series Talk: WCF: Dallas Stars vs Edmonton Oilers (EDM Leads 3-2)

[SeanAveryTheGreatOne]

Who y'all got?!
​

Dallas Stars (1C) vs. Edmonton Oilers (2P)​

Western Conference Final

Game 1: Oilers at Stars -- May 23, 8:30 p.m. ET (TNT, truTV, MAX, SN, CBC, TVAS)
Game 2: Oilers at Stars -- May 25, 8 p.m. ET (TNT, truTV, MAX, SN, CBC, TVAS)
Game 3: Stars at Oilers -- May 27, 8:30 p.m. ET (TNT, truTV, MAX, SN, CBC, TVAS)
Game 4: Stars at Oilers -- May 29, 8:30 p.m. ET (TNT, truTV, MAX, SN, CBC, TVAS)
+ Game 5: Oilers at Stars -- May 31, TBD (TNT, truTV, MAX, SN, TVAS)
+ Game 6: Stars at Oilers -- June 2, TBD (TNT, truTV, MAX, SN, TVAS)
+ Game 7: Oilers at Stars -- June 4, TBD (TNT, truTV, MAX, SN, CBC, TVAS)
+ if necessary ​

Click to read more...

 

[onetweasy]

Using the 82 game sample shows these teams are close.

No no no!!! This does not fit the narrative.

In this thread we use regular season stats for the special team comparison and we just ignore any and all playoff metrics that suggest the Oilers are not a terrible team because we played two ECHL teams and the Stars knocked off the 02 Red Wings and the 85 Oilers team enroute the WCF.

The Stars have this wrapped up by the first intermission on Thursday.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

According to a lot of the analytics guys, Oilers are still the favorites in this series apparently

There’s no analytic for “f***ups/60” though otherwise we would be leading in that too.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

I was using fanduel when I was talking about stats. I don't know how accurate the Athletic one was going back.

FanDuel had the favourites winning every series except NYR-Carolina.

FanDuel Sportsbook

sportsbook.fanduel.com

The FanDuel round 3 favourites are Dallas and Florida.

Dom's model is the same. Car/NYR is the only series that he didn't accurately call.

 

[Divine]

Dom's model is the same. Car/NYR is the only series that he didn't accurately call.

Dom is heavy into analytics though. It's hard to compare when one team had to go through the last 2 Stanley Cup winners back to back while the other went through LA/Vancouver without Demko.

I don't see how the Oilers are the favourites with Dallas being the home team. It's not the Vancouver situation where Edmonton's odds jumped significantly because Demko was out for the series.

 

[Sniper99]

Skinner needs to play at .910

How about the 5 guys in front of him? Way too many screw ups and giveaways in their end against Vancouver. Skinner to blame for Mcleod's dopey ass giveaway on the 3-1 goal. Skinner played well in game 6 and 7.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Dom is heavy into analytics though. It's hard to compare when one team had to go through the last 2 Stanley Cup winners back to back while the other went through LA/Vancouver without Demko.

I don't see how the Oilers are the favourites with Dallas being the home team. It's not the Vancouver situation where Edmonton's odds jumped significantly because Demko was out for the series.

What do you think FanDuel is basing their odds on? It ain't vibes.

 

[Divine]

What do you think FanDuel is basing their odds on? It ain't vibes.

If they're both using the same formula why would the odds favour different teams?

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

How about the 5 guys in front of him? Way too man screw ups and giveaways in their end against Vancouver. Skinner to blame for Mcleod's dopey ass giveaway on the 3-1 goal. Skinner played well in game 6 and 7.

Yup, can't give up a freebie every other game. Oilers made more egregious errors than the Canucks did in their series and if they lost game 7 Ryan McLeod is probably a goner.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

If they're both using the same formula why would the odds favour different teams?

They generally don't. They're not necessarily using the same formula, but I guarantee that they're using analytics.

 

[Canovin]

How about the 5 guys in front of him? Way too many screw ups and giveaways in their end against Vancouver. Skinner to blame for Mcleod's dopey ass giveaway on the 3-1 goal. Skinner played well in game 6 and 7.

.882 was Skinner save % in game 7. That's good to you? It was the team that was good in front of him limiting the shots to the outside.

The Oilers allowed 15 shots in game 6 and 18 shots in game 7. I'm sure it was the 5 guys who played in front of Skinner. They did a better job than he did.

 

[Divine]

They generally don't. They're not necessarily using the same formula, but I guarantee that they're using analytics.

They're both using analytics but clearly different ones. Dom's is based on playoff stats because that's what he's citing in his analysis. It's hard to compare playoff stats 1:1 when the quality of competition was way higher for Dallas.

Dom admits his odds differ from the consensus though and he himself even feels that Dallas should be the favourites.

The odds​

This is the first series of the postseason where the model is really out on a limb relative to the market. We have the Oilers at 53 percent favorites, while oddsmakers view the Stars as 56 percent favorites. That’s a big difference.

While the model has a strong hit rate in these playoffs when there’s a discrepancy against the market, it does feel like it’s on the “wrong” side here. Conventional wisdom suggests the Stars should be the favorites. They’re the significantly deeper team at every position, with stronger goaltending and a much better defensive cachet, and they’ve proved their mettle against two tougher opponents.

Edmonton’s only real advantage is a massive one: Its star power. No team shines brighter in that regard. Will that be enough against an elite team that’s built to destroy it and proved as much against the Colorado Avalanche?

 

[Coffey]

if they lost game 7 Ryan McLeod is probably a goner.

Probably still on thin ice, like Bear and Eberle after their terrible playoffs.

 

[Belos]

Edmonton Oilers

83 Nugent-Hopkins, 94 McDavid, 85 Hyman
76 Holloway, 92 Draisaitl, 77 Henrique
77 Foegele, 77 McLeod, 77 Kane,
74 Janmark, 73 Carrick, 73 Brown
77 Henrique
74 Gagner

86 Ekholm, 86 Bouchard(++)
80 Nurse, 78 Desharnais
79 Kulak, 77 Ceci


79 Skinner
80 Pickard


Dallas Stars

88 Robertson(+), 85 Johnston(++), 81 Stankoven(+)
78 Marchment, 79 Duchene, 84 Pavelski(-)
82 Benn, 79 Seguin, 76 Dadonov
76 Faksa, 73 Steel, 75 Smith
86 Hintz


83 Harley(+), 90 Heiskanen
84 Lindell, 86 Tanev
78 Suter, 76 Petrovic
77 Lundkvist

85 Oettinger
76 Wedgewood

 

[MBTendy]

Do the Oilers have any guys other than Henrique who are questionable/dealing with injuries?

 

[K1984]

Do the Oilers have any guys other than Henrique who are questionable/dealing with injuries?

Ekholm is/was sick and Kane is dealing with an ongoing sports hernia, but it didn't seem to cause them any issues so far. Rumours of a cold going around the room, but those are the only ones that we know of.

 

[Frank Drebin]

Meh, don't be bitter that the Knight's GM has a set of balls and doesn't sit around and evaluate for years on end. They are all in to win it every year, nothing wrong with that.

And spare me the "cheaters" argument. They have done nothing wrong according to the league rules. This again goes back to having the stones to go all in.

I could not care less about vegas or its fans. Was just a sarcastic comment. Glad the cheating backfired on them this year though.

 

[McJC]

Skinner sure likes to play down to his competition... here's to hoping he plays up for once to Otter. Will be a good series... hope it's long unlike the Oilers - Avs from a couple seasons ago. No doubt Dallas is the favourite.

 

[Coffey]

Do the Oilers have any guys other than Henrique who are questionable/dealing with injuries?

He's the only one battered enough to not play.
But I'm feeling that McDavid hasn't been his supernova self all year.

 

[phrenssoa]

Do the Oilers have any guys other than Henrique who are questionable/dealing with injuries?

I’m not sure Kane has practiced with the team at all during these playoffs as he’s dealing with a sports hernia.

 

[Sniper99]

.882 was Skinner save % in game 7. That's good to you? It was the team that was good in front of him limiting the shots to the outside.

The Oilers allowed 15 shots in game 6 and 18 shots in game 7. I'm sure it was the 5 guys who played in front of Skinner. They did a better job than he did.

Good enough to get the win right. You must have missed this 3rd period with all the screw ups. If Mcleod doesnt cough up that play for the 1st goal, might have stayed at 3-0. You're forgetting its a team game not individual game.

 

[Coffey]

Good enough to get the win right. You must have missed this 3rd period with all the screw ups. If Mcleod doesnt cough up that play for the 1st goal, might have stayed at 3-0. You're forgetting its a team game not individual game.

Yea it would probably be 4-1 if Brown and Garland swapped teams.

 

[Zaar]

.882 was Skinner save % in game 7. That's good to you?

Goalie save pct over one or two games (and even more with limited shots) are completely useless. The only thing that counts is how many easy stoppable did get in.

Nevertheless ... Skinner had a full season behind a really good team to prepare for these playoffs and still looks shaky way too often. His lateral movement is sub par he is prone to one or two really bad goals every other game. I really hope (for him and the Oilers), that he's able to step up his game.

 

[Osakahaus]

if you are the Stars, then you really need to take a page from what the Canucks did to get under McDavid's skin. You cannot let the Oilers dictate the game

 

[The Management]

I've adopted the Stars as my de facto Western Conference team since the Mike Modano days, and am pretty optimistic about their team this year, but this Oilers squad is not to be underestimated.

They still rely on that explosive offensive, but are at least capable of tightening up when needed. I also think that for all the grief they get about having an easier first round opponent in Los Angeles, Vancouver was a tough nut to crack, injuries and all. So they're not untested. I think this is going to be a close series and wouldn't want to put money down on a winner.

 

[Mangosteen]

Cheering for the Oilers!!