W Ilya Protas - Windsor Spitfires, OHL (2024, 75th, WSH)

[qc14]

Not to say it’s looking like a bad gamble. He’s doing well this season. But at the same time, it’s a little hard to completely measure everyone’s progress by their scoring. Of course the bigger subplot with Ilya will be that none of it matters if he can score at elite levels in the NHL. But most elite junior scorers don’t do that in the NHL. It usually becomes about how the rest progresses to be able to round out their games enough. So with Protas, he’s doing the thing that people don’t really doubt and the things that’ll likely be the test probably don’t actually get tested until he hits the AHL.

This is true by default -- most junior players period don't become elite scorers in the NHL.

I think judging what a re-draft would look like based on scoring is overly simplistic. It can work the other way, you know. A guy who isn’t scoring and seeing much traction in the box score might be progressing well and on pace to reach their potential and the scorer might not be scoring enough for what their profile is or might not be making progress in other areas.

While it's certainly not infallible and I think some online draft analysts worship it to a fault, by far the best predictor of future success in higher leagues is past scoring in lower leagues (or NHLe if you want to be fancy). Scoring ~1.7ppg in your D+1 year in the OHL is extremly good and puts him (and another big riser this year that hasn't gotten nearly as much attention, Kieron Walton) comfortably in the range that other first rounders from last year are scoring at.

 

[Langway]

That’s kind of my point with Protas. Everyone knew he was skilled before the season.

I don't know. Did they? I mean, he was all-USHL rookie team and led rookies in assists but he wasn't exactly heralded. Going from that to now currently sitting fourth in OHL scoring wasn't really expected I don't think. Even if it's junior on a solid team alongside Greentree that's a continued uptick in competition and production. It's not enough on its own by a long shot but the main thing that should help differentiate from an Alex Nylander situation is that what he needs to work on basically mirrors his older brother. If he's got his brother's work ethic to continue to improve he'll be fine. At the same age at least Ilya seems to have slightly softer hands and better finish.

 

[wickedwitch]

Protas with a 3+2 night and is now tied for third in points in the OHL.

(BTW, it should be noted that Ilya was fairly young for his draft class, with a mid-July birthday.)

 

[Lou Sassole]

 

[Nogatco Rd]

And let’s be real, Washington picked him because it worked out for Aleksei. It’s not a coincidence. Another team (and probably later in the draft) likely picks him otherwise, so it seems Washington is taking that risky plunge.

Disagree with the bolded -- the Caps traded up 7 or 8 spots on draft day based on intel that he was about to be selected by another team.

 

[Sticktape]

Damn this guy is huge and putting up serious points.

 

[GoCaps2004]

 

[LeProspector]

FWIW: He’s the play driver in Windsor. The most talented player on that team.

 

[Lampedampe]

Can Washington's scouting department take a year off?

 

[Sticktape]

Has 27 points in his last 10 games.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

Can Washington's scouting department take a year off?

If they ever take a Finn you’ll know the scouting department has gone into hibernation. Other than that, probably not considering they just promoted Chris Patrick to GM this past fall.

 

[Topcheese31]

Atfter 25 games of the season, I told in a redraft he would probably have went in the first round. Now I can affirm it.

 

[LeProspector]

Atfter 25 games of the season, I told in a redraft he would probably have went in the first round. Now I can affirm it.

100%

 

[Random schmoe]

Protas is only 3 months older than Porter Martone, a likely top 10 pick in the 2025 draft. They have the same PPG. This is Martone's 3rd season in the OHL and Protas' 1st.

Obviously, more goes into comparing prospects than points - but it's still worth the realization.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Atfter 25 games of the season, I told in a redraft he would probably have went in the first round. Now I can affirm it.

I know you’re patting yourself on the back for this, but I don’t think it’s true, when you said it or now.

He has essentially the same stats on the same team as the dude who went 26OA, who actually has a lot of general similarities to him. And I’d argue Greentree’s stock has went down, if anything, not up.

NHL teams are often unwilling to relent on their positions of their precious first round choices. I just listened to Corey Pronman say on his podcast recently that Lane Hutson wouldn’t be valued over Simon Edvinsson because Edvinsson was drafted much higher. And obviously Protas has accomplished nowhere near what Hutson has.

I think he would go higher because of his scoring, but I think he would be no higher than second round for actual NHL teams. It might not even be high second round.

 

[Frolov 6'3]

I know you’re patting yourself on the back for this, but I don’t think it’s true, when you said it or now.

He has essentially the same stats on the same team as the dude who went 26OA, who actually has a lot of general similarities to him. And I’d argue Greentree’s stock has went down, if anything, not up.


I think he would go higher because of his scoring, but I think he would be no higher than second round for actual NHL teams. It might not even be high second round.

With any assist from a middle six player, Alex Turcotte, you dig up his topic but the stock of the 2nd leading scorer of the OHL went down and NOT up.

An 6’5” prospect with hands and almost 1.5 PPG is barely worth a 2nd rounder in hindsight.

Shameless.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

With any assist from a middle six player, Alex Turcotte, you dig up his topic but the stock of the 2nd leading scorer of the OHL went down and NOT up.

An 6’5” prospect with hands and almost 1.5 PPG is barely worth a 2nd rounder in hindsight.

Shameless.

You’re the person that has so much pride that they are making deceiving arguments about their own team’s player because you bet big on a bust and you were wrong and of course you can’t admit it.

On the other hand, I take it that Greentree is one of your “faves”, so you’ll overprotect him. I don’t think anything about what I said is wrong. Greentree went 26 and has not moved up. He didn’t even get close to making Canada WJC team.

 

[frontsfan67]

On the other hand, I take it that Greentree is one of your “faves”, so you’ll overprotect him. I don’t think anything about what I said is wrong. Greentree went 26 and has not moved up. He didn’t even get close to making Canada WJC team.

Neither did Michael Misa and he’s leading the league in scoring. Didn’t get invited either.

Greentrees stock absolutely has gone way up. He was a projected top 15-17 on some lists I believe and fell to LA at 26. He’s still not a complete player and will be back in the OHL next year- needs to work on skating and defence in particular but he’s absolutely a steal

Some guys that went ahead of him and have either had injuries or off years are:

Lindstrom, Iginla, Levshunov, Luchanko, Parascak, Connelly, Solberg, Letourneau

Not that he would be higher than Lindstrom, Levshunov or Iginla in a re draft after this year but for starters you’d have to think he’s higher than the other 5 and it’s just 1 year- with Greentrees skating and defence still to have been worked on, Greentree when it’s all said and done could be a top 10 player from this strong draft class and LA got him at 26. To me that’s a steal.

 

[wickedwitch]

On the other hand, I take it that Greentree is one of your “faves”, so you’ll overprotect him. I don’t think anything about what I said is wrong. Greentree went 26 and has not moved up. He didn’t even get close to making Canada WJC team.

I mean, that might actually be a point in his favor.

 

[Frolov 6'3]

You’re the person that has so much pride that they are making deceiving arguments about their own team’s player because you bet big on a bust and you were wrong and of course you can’t admit it.

On the other hand, I take it that Greentree is one of your “faves”, so you’ll overprotect him. I don’t think anything about what I said is wrong. Greentree went 26 and has not moved up. He didn’t even get close to making Canada WJC team.

I bet big on a bust ? Care to enlighten me. I think you confuse me someone else.
Vilardi is far from a bust, I always talked about him.

Than Greentree with 1.75 PPG in the OHL and great chemistry with Protas, his stock went down. Disappointed he does not have 100 points already ?

Your arguments are that he is one of my ‘faves’ and I “overprotect” him. What are that for childish arguments. “Did not make team Canada”. Oh no, the sky has fallen. I believe team Canada got eliminated in the QF too.

Looks like you get triggered by some enthousiasm from fans (Protas) and need to be the voice of reason. It already started that you questioned Protas’ skating. No kidding, therefore he was a 3rd round pick, maybe.

Weird behaviour, dude.

 

[Topcheese31]

I know you’re patting yourself on the back for this, but I don’t think it’s true, when you said it or now.

He has essentially the same stats on the same team as the dude who went 26OA, who actually has a lot of general similarities to him. And I’d argue Greentree’s stock has went down, if anything, not up.

NHL teams are often unwilling to relent on their positions of their precious first round choices. I just listened to Corey Pronman say on his podcast recently that Lane Hutson wouldn’t be valued over Simon Edvinsson because Edvinsson was drafted much higher. And obviously Protas has accomplished nowhere near what Hutson has.

I think he would go higher because of his scoring, but I think he would be no higher than second round for actual NHL teams. It might not even be high second round.

I had a feeling that you would comment on that. You had the same anwser the last time I post this.

Don't you think it kind of ironic that you compare Protas to Greentree, both in the top 3 leading scorer in the NHL ?

Like @Frolov 6'3 said, a 6"5 body, with hand, vision and this kind of production is a clear first rounder.

So, you would have taken guys like :

- letourneau
- Beaudoin
- Vanacker
- Gridin
- Hemming
- emery
- Danford
- O'reilly

All them before Protas in a redraft ?

Hutson and Prostas is two completly different players. Back in 2019, would you take A.Protas or S.Poulin in a redraft. More the time past, player lose or gain value. In this case, I have a hard time telling me I.Protas would have fall in the second round.

You have the right of your opinion, I just don't agree.

 

[wetcoast]

Has his skating improved or are people getting overly excited watching stats?

 

[Topcheese31]

Has his skating improved or are people getting overly excited watching stats?

His skating is the same than before, below average. I watch a few of his game and his vision easily compensate.

 

[frontsfan67]

His skating is the same than before, below average. I watch a few of his game and his vision easily compensate.

I agree. Hasn’t been worked on but the offensive part of his game has greatly improved.

Remember his draft comparison- Jason Robertson who has never been a great skater but has been a good scorer. I assume this year in the off season the main things Liam works on are his skating and his defensive play.

Liam from what I have seen is a more physical player than Robertson was. Jason didn’t really engage physically until his final year but even then it was just him throwing his weight around more nothing overly physical. Then again I don’t watch every spits game but I’ve watched 5-10 this year so far.

 

[LeProspector]

Has his skating improved or are people getting overly excited watching stats?

He won’t need to be a good skater, this is the type of player that is the exception. His Vision, shooting and anticipation are clearly enough to make up for his lack of pace, Mark Stone/Ja Rob is who he really reminds me of.