W Ilya Protas - Windsor Spitfires, OHL (2024, 75th, WSH)

[qc14]

Not to say it’s looking like a bad gamble. He’s doing well this season. But at the same time, it’s a little hard to completely measure everyone’s progress by their scoring. Of course the bigger subplot with Ilya will be that none of it matters if he can score at elite levels in the NHL. But most elite junior scorers don’t do that in the NHL. It usually becomes about how the rest progresses to be able to round out their games enough. So with Protas, he’s doing the thing that people don’t really doubt and the things that’ll likely be the test probably don’t actually get tested until he hits the AHL.

This is true by default -- most junior players period don't become elite scorers in the NHL.

I think judging what a re-draft would look like based on scoring is overly simplistic. It can work the other way, you know. A guy who isn’t scoring and seeing much traction in the box score might be progressing well and on pace to reach their potential and the scorer might not be scoring enough for what their profile is or might not be making progress in other areas.

While it's certainly not infallible and I think some online draft analysts worship it to a fault, by far the best predictor of future success in higher leagues is past scoring in lower leagues (or NHLe if you want to be fancy). Scoring ~1.7ppg in your D+1 year in the OHL is extremly good and puts him (and another big riser this year that hasn't gotten nearly as much attention, Kieron Walton) comfortably in the range that other first rounders from last year are scoring at.

 

[Langway]

That’s kind of my point with Protas. Everyone knew he was skilled before the season.

I don't know. Did they? I mean, he was all-USHL rookie team and led rookies in assists but he wasn't exactly heralded. Going from that to now currently sitting fourth in OHL scoring wasn't really expected I don't think. Even if it's junior on a solid team alongside Greentree that's a continued uptick in competition and production. It's not enough on its own by a long shot but the main thing that should help differentiate from an Alex Nylander situation is that what he needs to work on basically mirrors his older brother. If he's got his brother's work ethic to continue to improve he'll be fine. At the same age at least Ilya seems to have slightly softer hands and better finish.