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Traded Vladimir Tarasenko (1 year, 5 million)

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GCK said:
I’d say Toronto, Boston and Tampa have better rosters and way more experience. I
could see Buffalo, Ottawa and Florida in the mix for a wildcard spot. I don’t see why you think this team should be well in the playoffs.
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You think Bostons roster is better than Ottawa's? List their full roster. I think you'd be surprised. They have a couple good pieces and good goalies. The majority of their lineup is very underwhelming. Like, our top 9 looks leagues better. Maybe I'm being biased, but Bostons roster doesn't look strong and they've lost many key pieces that made them good.
 
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NyQuil said:
Now take a look at the save percentage of their goalies vs. their shot differentials and expected goals.

They were a team that were sunk by goaltending in a season where we had Forsberg put up a .917.

Their advanced stats predicted the season they just had provided they actually got decent goaltending as opposed to among the league’s worst.

There was nothing overnight about it.
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Isn't that the exact thing that happened to us this year?

We routinely outshot and outplayed teams and deserved to win most games but every goalie got injured and we received well below average goaltending. I believe we would have made the playoffs with league wide average goaltending.

What you say of new jersey in the past literally described Ottawa this past year.
 
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jbeck5 said:
You think Bostons roster is better than Ottawa's? List their full roster. I think you'd be surprised. They have a couple good pieces and good goalies. The majority of their lineup is very underwhelming. Like, our top 9 looks leagues better. Maybe I'm being biased, but Bostons roster doesn't look strong and they've lost many key pieces that made them good.
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Boston and Tampa have worse players but they are better teams. Maybe that won't be the case much longer but I think it holds true this year.
 
jbeck5 said:
You think Bostons roster is better than Ottawa's? List their full roster. I think you'd be surprised. They have a couple good pieces and good goalies. The majority of their lineup is very underwhelming. Like, our top 9 looks leagues better. Maybe I'm being biased, but Bostons roster doesn't look strong and they've lost many key pieces that made them good.
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Boston's roster is not strong. Perhaps the biggest outlier I've seen in years of stat watching the NHL is the gap between Boston's team save percentage and the save percentage of the Islanders who were 2nd. There's no way that repeats itself, even if they returned the same roster.

Pasta is a great player. But high end wingers don't do well when they have low end centers. I'm not sure Boston currently has an adequate 2C let alone a 1C.

Edit: I predict the Bruins post a new NHL record this season: largest ever year over year point drop.
 
JD1 said:
Edit: I predict the Bruins post a new NHL record this season: largest ever year over year point drop.
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Off the top of my head, the 06 Flyers will be hard to beat, from 101 to 56. Not sure if bet on the Bruins finishing with 90 or less pts
 
Micklebot said:
Off the top of my head, the 06 Flyers will be hard to beat, from 101 to 56. Not sure if bet on the Bruins finishing with 90 or less pts
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Well you PTOOYA pretty quick. Kudos to you if you remember that. Wait now, was that pre and post lockout?

90 points would miss the playoffs and I won't be surprised to see that happen.
 
JD1 said:
Well you PTOOYA pretty quick. Kudos to you if you remember that. Wait now, was that pre and post lockout?

90 points would miss the playoffs and I won't be surprised to see that happen.
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05-06 to 06-07, so coming right out of the lockout.

Edit, and for the record, I remembered the massive drop but did look up the exact finish and years.

Interestingly enough, they then followed it up with one of the bigger year to year climbs hitting 95 pts the next year
 
jbeck5 said:
Isn't that the exact thing that happened to us this year?

We routinely outshot and outplayed teams and deserved to win most games but every goalie got injured and we received well below average goaltending. I believe we would have made the playoffs with league wide average goaltending.

What you say of new jersey in the past literally described Ottawa this past year.
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Team Save Percentage:
Ottawa 22-23: SV% - .900 - 18th
New Jersey 21-22: SV% - .886 - 32nd

-Ottawa was actually pretty much near the median as far as goaltending is concerned. It was a higher scoring season.
-By contrast, New Jersey had THE worst goaltending in the NHL the year before.
-New Jersey was 11th in the NHL in 22-23 with a .904

Corsi Differential:
Ottawa 22-23: 51.53% CF - 12th
New Jersey 21-22: 50.52% CF - 15th

-Ottawa slightly better here, but still pretty close
-New Jersey was 4th in the NHL in 22-23 with a CF of 54.17%

Expected Goals Differential:
Ottawa 22-23: 8.71 - 16th
New Jersey 21-22: 6.21 - 14th

-Ottawa slightly better here in raw value, New Jersey slightly better here in terms of ranking (again, higher scoring season) but pretty close
-New Jersey was 2nd in the NHL in 22-23 with a XG differential of 44.96

Summary:
-Again, the original point was that New Jersey was one of the top statistical teams in the league this past year, with relatively average goaltending, and still didn't make it past the 2nd round
-The year before, they had league worst goaltending which undoubtedly had more of an impact on their results than our middling goaltending did just this past year
-For Ottawa to follow New Jersey's trajectory would require a massive improvement in underlying play or extremely good goaltending which New Jersey didn't get
 
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Tuna99 said:
Was thinking Sanderson is the key to the entire thing - 2nd best player to ever skate with an Ottawa uniform on
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Sanderson is also critical but he doesn't have a bad shoulder so I am not worried about him.

I have full faith in Norris' ability to contribute, I am just worried about his body allowing it.
 
Tuna99 said:
Was thinking Sanderson is the key to the entire thing - 2nd best player to ever skate with an Ottawa uniform on
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1690994012158.gif
 
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NyQuil said:
For Ottawa to follow New Jersey's trajectory would require a massive improvement in underlying play or extremely good goaltending which New Jersey didn't get
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Underlying numbers seems to be pretty much the same beyond goaltending, and an argument can be made that's offset by the 5v5 sh% gap, Ottawa being dead last this year, NJD being ranked 13th the year before.

Playoffs are going to be far more random than reg season, a bad call impacting the result of one game can flip a series, but in the reg season it's unlikely to be much of a concern. I don't think any team can take winning two rounds for granted, just ask Boston, Toronto, EDM, and Colorado.

Wrt Ottawa following NJD trajectory, they aren't going to jump 49 pts in one year if that's what you mean, but could they finish around 110 pts? I think it's possible. I think they patched some holes in the lineup just like NJD did, and with better health and similar sv% and sh% to what NJD got, I think it's well within reasonable outcomes.
 
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jbeck5 said:
You think Bostons roster is better than Ottawa's? List their full roster. I think you'd be surprised. They have a couple good pieces and good goalies. The majority of their lineup is very underwhelming. Like, our top 9 looks leagues better. Maybe I'm being biased, but Bostons roster doesn't look strong and they've lost many key pieces that made them good.
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The Bruins have a fantastic top 4 D and 2 goaltenders who have proven themselves. Up front they still have Pasternak and Marchand as well as guys who can grind teams down. Their scoring will likely decrease but they know how to shut teams down.
 
Micklebot said:
Underlying numbers seems to be pretty much the same beyond goaltending, and an argument can be made that's offset by the 5v5 sh% gap, Ottawa being dead last this year, NJD being ranked 13th the year before.

Playoffs are going to be far more random than reg season, a bad call impacting the result of one game can flip a series, but in the reg season it's unlikely to be much of a concern. I don't think any team can take winning two rounds for granted, just ask Boston, Toronto, EDM, and Colorado.

Wrt Ottawa following NJD trajectory, they aren't going to jump 49 pts in one year if that's what you mean, but could they finish around 110 pts? I think it's possible. I think they patched some holes in the lineup just like NJD did, and with better health and similar sv% and sh% to what NJD got, I think it's well within reasonable outcomes.
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Both the 21-22 Devils and 22-23 Sens finished near the bottom of goal differential above expected:
1690999374197.png

1690999396970.png


But for opposite reasons. Devils because of poor goaltending, and the Sens because of poor finishing (or systemic issues with these metrics regarding the way someone like Tkachuk plays).

I suppose fixing poor goaltending is easier than fixing poor finishing, but at the same time, the Sens were only 6pts out of the playoffs, whereas the Devils were about 30pts out.
 
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GCK said:
The Bruins have a fantastic top 4 D and 2 goaltenders who have proven themselves. Up front they still have Pasternak and Marchand as well as guys who can grind teams down. Their scoring will likely decrease but they know how to shut teams down.
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Don't you think Bergeron had anything to do with that?

People hyper focus on defensemen when it comes to a team's defensive ability. In reality, it's a team effort, especially the center, who is equally responsible on both sides of the puck.
 
SpezDispenser said:
Even saying 'yet' might be too lofty. I'm a HUGE fan of Sanderson, but those are some big shoes to fill.

Chara
Karlsson
Stutzle
Chiasson
Spezza

We'll see, I hope so though!
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I agree, why did you put Chiasson in the list. Also Hossa add to list.
 
GCK said:
The Bruins have a fantastic top 4 D and 2 goaltenders who have proven themselves. Up front they still have Pasternak and Marchand as well as guys who can grind teams down. Their scoring will likely decrease but they know how to shut teams down.
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The Bruins posted a fantastic season but it's also a season they'd be highly unlikely to repeat with the same returning cast. The team save percentage was an extreme outlier

Gone from that team are almost 2400 faceoffs, including 1000+ faceoff wins by a Selke winner. That's going to hurt in the D zone. It's gonna hurt on the PP and PK.

You mentioned a terrific top 4. Who? Orlov is gone and Clifton is gone and Clifton was their most physical guy. They've got the big 2, after that I think our bottom 4 is possibly better than theirs.

Can they shut teams down without those 2 centers? It certainly won't be as easy. And they're also going to need a lead to be in shutdown mode.
 
swiftwin said:
Don't you think Bergeron had anything to do with that?

People hyper focus on defensemen when it comes to a team's defensive ability. In reality, it's a team effort, especially the center, who is equally responsible on both sides of the puck.
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It wasn’t one player. It’s years of experience playing that style across different coaches.

JD1 said:
The Bruins posted a fantastic season but it's also a season they'd be highly unlikely to repeat with the same returning cast. The team save percentage was an extreme outlier

Gone from that team are almost 2400 faceoffs, including 1000+ faceoff wins by a Selke winner. That's going to hurt in the D zone. It's gonna hurt on the PP and PK.

You mentioned a terrific top 4. Who? Orlov is gone and Clifton is gone and Clifton was their most physical guy. They've got the big 2, after that I think our bottom 4 is possibly better than theirs.

Can they shut teams down without those 2 centers? It certainly won't be as easy. And they're also going to need a lead to be in shutdown mode.
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We will see.
 
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