Blue Jays Discussion: Vladdy has signed 14 yr/500mil

[dredeye]

I assume they will trade everyone worth a damn for prospects this TDL and kinda do a retool on the fly

That's the hope but the east looks bad this year so they may waste pieces chasing false hope. My hope is we fall well enough back that they have to sell but Bo and Bassit have great seasons. With some luck Scherzer comes back and pitches well and we trade him as well. Problem is I don't trust this front office evaluating talent

 

[dredeye]

Ya the drafting has sucked. However, the last two drafts have plenty of promise. Still early though.

Every year there's hope on the drafts that just happened.

 

[canucksfan]

Every year there's hope on the drafts that just happened.

Next league prospect updates, the Jays will likely have a top 30 and a top 50 prospect. That hasn't happened recently. Barrieria had hope when he was drafted, but was quickly injured in his first pro season.

There's also some nice prospects that could sneak into the top 100.

 

[Canada4Gold]

latest rumblings on the draft has it being weak at the top but has a pretty consensus top 8. With us at 8 I guess that's a good thing, though getting the last guy in a tier that those above us didn't want could be a negative as well if the draft does play out that way. Still time for stuff to change obviously with the MLB draft being the most volatile of all the major sports. Kiley McDaniel doesn't think we take the HS pitcher in Seth Hernandez if he's the one who drops to us. That would then leave us with someone from the next tier. Sounds like that's on principal that HS righties are too volatile of a demographic, and doesn't sound like we're alone in that thought. He has him going 1, 2, 3 or dropping to 9+.

I have a gut feeling the Jays are going to draft Aiden Stillman overslot in the 3rd or 4th round. I know nothing about him except he's a high school lefty out of Florida ranked in that range which the Jays usually have 1 of every draft right around that area.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

latest rumblings on the draft has it being weak at the top but has a pretty consensus top 8. With us at 8 I guess that's a good thing, though getting the last guy in a tier that those above us didn't want could be a negative as well if the draft does play out that way. Still time for stuff to change obviously with the MLB draft being the most volatile of all the major sports.

I have a gut feeling the Jays are going to draft Aiden Stillman overslot in the 3rd or 4th round. I know nothing about him except he's a high school lefty out of Florida ranked in that range which the Jays usually have 1 of every draft right around that area.

I think if the guy they really want doesn't make it to our first pick, we should cut a deal with someone ranked further down like Summerhill, Irish, or Taylor and use the savings to buy out a faller or two in the 3rd and 4th round. It sucks that we lost our 2nd rounder for the privilege of watching Santander suck.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

New top 200 draft ranking.

https://www.mlb.com/milb/news/mlb-s-top-200-draft-prospects-for-2025?t=mlb-draft-coverage

Top 10:
1. Ethan Holliday, SS/3B, Stillwater HS, Okla.
2. Seth Hernandez, RHP, Corona HS, Calif.
3. Kade Anderson, LHP, Louisiana State
4. Jamie Arnold, LHP, Florida State
5. Eli Willits, SS, Fort Cobb-Broxton HS, Okla.
6. Aiva Arquette, 2B, Oregon State
7. Billy Carlson, SS, Corona HS, Calif.
8. Kyson Witherspoon, RHP, Oklahoma
9. Liam Doyle, LHP, Tennessee
10. JoJo Parker, SS, Purvis HS, Miss.

 

[canucksfan]

Keith Law released his top fifty prospects today. Nimmala is 37 and Yesavage is 47. Stephen gets an honorable mention.

 

[Eyedea]

Good to see nearly every acquisition Atkins made in the offseason is in "oof" territory.

Scherzer; old, can't stay healthy, has barely pitched (this one was avoidable too given how his time post Washington has went)

Santander: Awful when healthy, even more so now that he's still battling hip/shoulder issues. I won't call it over yet given guys much smarter than me like Keegan Matheson believe Santander will be better once healthy, but there's no spinning how bad the start of that deal has been.

Gimenez: Sub 600 OPS, i forgot he exists half the time. Awful, awful trade.

Hoffman: Looked fantastic in April but then proceeded to run full speed into a wall. 5+ ERA with a 1.1 WHIP suggests he's not as bad as he's looked, but still.

The tally thus far:

Scherzer: 0 WAR (15.5 million for one year)
Gimenez: 0.9 WAR (10 million yearly)
Hoffman: -0.3 WAR (11 million yearly)
Santander: -0.7 WAR (18.5 million yearly)

Put together that's a total of 0.1 WAR in 50+ games for a total of 55 million. Bang up job, Ross.

Yeah but now you have to add the elite acquisitions like Heineman, Straw, and Lauer into the mix.

 

[Blitzkrug]

Yeah but now you have to add the elite acquisitions like Heineman, Straw, and Lauer into the mix.

Fair;

Lauer: 0.4 WAR (2.2 million)
Straw: 0.7 WAR (6.4 million)
Hieneman: 1.0 WAR (780K)

add that to the last post and it's more like 2.2 WAR for 64 million.

 

[Eyedea]

Fair;

Lauer: 0.4 WAR (2.2 million)
Straw: 0.7 WAR (6.4 million)
Hieneman: 1.0 WAR (780K)

add that to the last post and it's more like 2.2 WAR for 64 million.

See, much better!

To be honest the only stinker I see thus far is Santander. Scherzer was a risk but the upside was clearly there, even if he only pitched 100 or so innings. Hoffman strengthens the pen, even if he’s had some stinkers I think overall he’ll be quite the weapon for a much deeper bullpen.

Gimenez might be faulty based on roster construction, but he’s still good for 2-3 wins on defence + positional adjustment alone. I don’t think anybody expected Clement to be in platinum glove territory this year, but that could potentially free up another cost conscious asset to move for upgrades anyway. Gimenez was also seen as a security for if/when Bo leaves.

Santander just looks lost and completely uninterested in playing the game. Like a 2011 post-TDL Colby Rasmus.

 

[canucksfan]

Charles McAdoo has had a poor start to the year. He was sent down to the developmental complex, and since his return on Tuesday, he already has two homers.

 

[Discoverer]

See, much better!

To be honest the only stinker I see thus far is Santander. Scherzer was a risk but the upside was clearly there, even if he only pitched 100 or so innings. Hoffman strengthens the pen, even if he’s had some stinkers I think overall he’ll be quite the weapon for a much deeper bullpen.

Gimenez might be faulty based on roster construction, but he’s still good for 2-3 wins on defence + positional adjustment alone. I don’t think anybody expected Clement to be in platinum glove territory this year, but that could potentially free up another cost conscious asset to move for upgrades anyway. Gimenez was also seen as a security for if/when Bo leaves.

Santander just looks lost and completely uninterested in playing the game. Like a 2011 post-TDL Colby Rasmus.

So far, the best piece in the Gimenez-Horwitz trade has been... Nick Sandlin.

 

[canucksfan]

Since May 16th Nimmala, has walked more than he has struck out. His K rate is 12.7% in that span. That doesn't include his 1 for 4 with no Ks. wRC of 183 as well.

Enmanuel Bonilla might be showing some life in the FCL. After a horrendous start, his last 6 games have been much better. Walks and SOs are the same, and he has a wRC of 176.

 

[dredeye]

Next league prospect updates, the Jays will likely have a top 30 and a top 50 prospect. That hasn't happened recently. Barrieria had hope when he was drafted, but was quickly injured in his first pro season.

There's also some nice prospects that could sneak into the top 100.

Nimmala is a huge hope for me. Things seem to be lining up for him and Yesavage also looks strong so far but neither has hit that AA level yet. There are pieces but there haven't been many in the time they've been here.

 

[Seath The Scaleless]

As expected

 

[MK78]

So Tony Taters is indeed broken.

 

[Discoverer]

As expected

I'm glad it's Roden coming back up. He earned a roster spot out of the spring, then struggled for a bit, and now he's earned another chance with his play in Buffalo.

Hopefully he gets plenty of playing time to try to cement a spot by the time Santander is back.

 

[Discoverer]

Nimmala is a huge hope for me. Things seem to be lining up for him and Yesavage also looks strong so far but neither has hit that AA level yet. There are pieces but there haven't been many in the time they've been here.

The system overall is looking at least fairly solid right now. Fangraphs has them ranked around the middle of the pack at 18th. You could easily argue they belong closer to the top 10 now, given the progress we've seen so far this year; Nimmala and Yesavage are leading the way, but even looking at the rest of the system, the positive performances far outweigh the negatives, especially with a ton of injured pitchers making their way back recently.

Obviously the strength of the system doesn't matter if they're getting quality major leaguers out of them, but at least things are looking better after everything went wrong last year.

 

[MS]

As expected

Should have happened weeks ago. A situation not handled well by the team.

Since his original injury in Anaheim on May 8 he's gone 5-41 with 19 Ks as he's gone in-out of the lineup.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

The system overall is looking at least fairly solid right now. Fangraphs has them ranked around the middle of the pack at 18th. You could easily argue they belong closer to the top 10 now, given the progress we've seen so far this year; Nimmala and Yesavage are leading the way, but even looking at the rest of the system, the positive performances far outweigh the negatives, especially with a ton of injured pitchers making their way back recently.

Obviously the strength of the system doesn't matter if they're getting quality major leaguers out of them, but at least things are looking better after everything went wrong last year.

Not sure if serious.

Fangraphs isn't what it used to be, and Law and McDaniels both have our farm system ranked 24th. MLB.com has us 27th.

Updated top 10 prospect rankings and next to debut for all 30 MLB teams: Who are your club's future stars?

Who is rising and falling in every major league farm system as June begins? Kiley McDaniel digs in.

www.espn.com

 

[canucksfan]

Not sure if serious.

Fangraphs isn't what it used to be, and Law and McDaniels both have our farm system ranked 24th. MLB.com has us 27th.

Updated top 10 prospect rankings and next to debut for all 30 MLB teams: Who are your club's future stars?

Who is rising and falling in every major league farm system as June begins? Kiley McDaniel digs in.

www.espn.com

Those are preseason rankings. I am no expert on other farm systems, but I don't think this group is near the top ten. Happy to be corrected. However, once the rankings get updated after the draft, I would say the farm system gets ranked close to 15th. No way this group is 27th now. There have been very few disappointments and plenty of guys playing well. Jays also get to add a solid prospect with pick #8. Jays have two top 50 prospects in the league and a bunch of guys who could creep into the top 100.

On a similar note, Kendry Rojas had a start with the FCL today.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

Those are preseason rankings.

On a similar note, Kendry Rojas had a start with the FCL today.

Kiley's ranking is literally from 3.5 weeks ago.

But I generally agree we've moved up a bit. Top 10 just seems absurd though.

 

[canucksfan]

Kiley's ranking is literally from 3 weeks ago.

If it's from the article, it states "Preseason system ranking: 24th"

The article was written on May 1st

 

[Discoverer]

Not sure if serious.

Fangraphs isn't what it used to be, and Law and McDaniels both have our farm system ranked 24th. MLB.com has us 27th.

Updated top 10 prospect rankings and next to debut for all 30 MLB teams: Who are your club's future stars?

Who is rising and falling in every major league farm system as June begins? Kiley McDaniel digs in.

www.espn.com

I don't know who's more accurate, but Fangraphs reporting is far more extensive and regularly updated than the others.

Either way, it's just one source who thinks the Jays system isn't too bad. I mentioned the Top 10 thing because if you bump Nimmala and Yesavage up a level in FV (it's probably a bit early for that still, but not unreasonable given the seasons they're having), it moves the Jays system to 10th in their Farm System Rankings.

You would probably have to drop Bloss down a notch or two, and obviously I'm not looking at how other teams would shift up and down, but if you had the Jays around 18th going into the season, having them in the 10-15 range now seems reasonable.

EDIT: I'm dumb and didn't realize a bunch of rankings on that list are incomplete because they haven't finished the team lists yet. So 18 going into the season may be a few spots high.

 

[canucksfan]

I don't know who's more accurate, but Fangraphs reporting is far more extensive and regularly updated than the others.

Either way, it's just one source who thinks the Jays system isn't too bad. I mentioned the Top 10 thing because if you bump Nimmala and Yesavage up a level in FV (it's probably a bit early for that still, but not unreasonable given the seasons they're having), it moves the Jays system to 10th in their Farm System Rankings.

You would probably have to drop Bloss down a notch or two, and obviously I'm not looking at how other teams would shift up and down, but if you had the Jays around 18th going into the season, having them in the 10-15 range now seems reasonable.

EDIT: I'm dumb and didn't realize a bunch of rankings on that list are incomplete because they haven't finished the team lists yet. So 18 going into the season may be a few spots high.

That makes more sense. I feel 18 coming into the season is too high. Right now, it's more realistic but still a touch too high.

Also depends on what you value though. Jays have a lot of potential at lower levels, but players could get injured or struggle once they get promoted to the high levels.