Outside a handful of high probability options potentially on the waiver wire/in the UFA market, I’m not sure the difference in baseline probabilities and outcomes between waiver fodder, low picks, and UFAs really matter one way or another across the sample of players you’re going to be able to bet on.
Having a 3% or 5% shot at a player across 20 or 30 bets based on which avenue you take probably won’t make much of a difference, compared to luck or developing a competitive advantage in identifying good players, giving them good training, etc.
The caveat being that you probably shouldn’t trade picks for players you can likely get for free. Draft picks are the only group that you get to see the evolution of a player without tying up a roster/contract spot with so have a bit of an advantage over the other two options. If a player goes gangbusters in their D+1 or D+2 season, you learn that for free. If a UFA does the same you’re competing against every other team in the league for him.
I think where you are in the competitive cycle matters probably more for what path you should follow than the odds. This Canucks team needs players to hit now, so should are more justified in bringing forward their bets. Less so for the 2015 Canucks.
